OpenAI GPT-5.4 Forecasts

Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election?

May 8 · Ends 2026-06-03

“Cho Kuk remains legally/politically constrained after his conviction and imprisonment, making a Busan mayoral win highly unlikely absent a dramatic reversal or candidacy change before the election.”

Will the People Power Party (PPP) win the 2026 South Korean local elections?

May 8 · Ends 2026-06-03

“Local elections often punish the incumbent national camp; PPP has faced recent headwinds and urban competitiveness issues. Still, conservative regional strength keeps a PPP win plausible but less likely than not.”

Will Lee Chul-gyu win the 2026 Gangwon Province gubernatorial election?

May 8 · Ends 2026-06-03

“Lee Chul-gyu is a prominent conservative in Gangwon, but gubernatorial races depend heavily on party nomination, incumbency, and late coalition dynamics. Without clear evidence he is the nominee/front-runner, his win odds look below even.”

Will the Progressive Party (PP) win the 2026 South Korean local elections?

May 8 · Ends 2026-06-03

“The Progressive Party is a minor party in South Korea; local elections are typically dominated by the two major blocs. A nationwide PP win would require an extraordinary upset, making YES extremely unlikely.”

Will Rick Caruso win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

May 8 · Ends 2026-06-02

“Caruso has high name recognition and resources, but incumbency and LA’s Democratic coalition still give Bass or another establishment-backed candidate a modest edge absent clear evidence of a Caruso lead.”

Will Ace Bailey win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award?

May 8 · Ends 2026-05-18

“With the award resolving in 10 days, the winner is usually already clear from season-long performance and media consensus. Ace Bailey would need to be the strong favorite now; absent evidence of that, his chance is low.”

Will Poland win the televote for Eurovision 2026?

May 8 · Ends 2026-05-16

“Winning Eurovision televote is rare and usually concentrated among a few standout entries. Poland has diaspora support but is not a frequent televote winner, so absent strong evidence of a runaway entry, chances remain low.”

Will Carlos Espá win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

May 8 · Ends 2026-06-07

“Carlos Espá is not a prominent national frontrunner in available context; Peru’s fragmented, volatile field makes any lesser-known candidate a long shot this close to the election.”

Will Kai Havertz be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 English Premier League season?

May 8 · Ends 2026-05-27

“With the 2025–26 season nearly complete, Havertz would need to be leading or tied for the Golden Boot. He is not a typical EPL top-scorer favorite versus elite strikers, so the chance is effectively negligible.”

Will Omar Marmoush be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 English Premier League season?

May 8 · Ends 2026-05-27

“Top scorer is a crowded market usually led by elite strikers like Haaland/Salah/Isak. Marmoush would need both huge minutes and an outlier finishing season; plausible but very unlikely this late in the season.”

Will Joao Pedro be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 English Premier League season?

May 8 · Ends 2026-05-27

“With only weeks left in the 2025–26 season, the top-scorer race is usually clear. Joao Pedro is not a typical Golden Boot favorite, so his chance of finishing outright top is extremely low.”

Will Cyprus win the televote for Eurovision 2026?

May 8 · Ends 2026-05-16

“Cyprus is a plausible finalist but rarely the televote favorite. With many stronger-population and diaspora-backed contenders typically competing, any single country’s chance to top the televote is low; Cyprus looks like a long shot.”

Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026?

May 8 · Ends 2026-05-16

“Eurovision has ~37 entrants, so a base rate near 3%. Estonia is a credible occasional contender but not a frequent winner; absent strong market/fan evidence they should be near the field average, slightly below top favorites.”

Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026?

May 8 · Ends 2026-05-14

“Powell’s Fed Chair term runs to May 2026, and with only days left there’s little time for resignation, removal, or replacement before May 14. Such transitions are rare and usually telegraphed well in advance.”

Will Grigor Dimitrov win the 2026 Men's French Open?

May 8 · Ends 2026-06-07

“Dimitrov is an accomplished veteran but not a top clay-court favorite, and at age 35 by RG 2026 his title chances are extremely slim versus younger elite contenders.”

Will Adam Miller win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

May 8 · Ends 2026-06-02

“Adam Miller appears to be a minor or little-known candidate, while LA mayoral races are usually won by prominent, well-funded contenders. With election day near and no sign he is a frontrunner, his win chance looks very low.”

Will Connie Chan receive the most votes in the CA-11 primary?

May 8 · Ends 2026-06-02

“Chan is a well-known SF supervisor with strong local base and labor/progressive support. In a crowded jungle primary, name recognition and citywide organization make her a plausible first-place finisher, though competition remains meaningful.”

Will Rob Sand win the 2026 Iowa Governor Democratic primary election?

May 8 · Ends 2026-06-02

“Rob Sand is Iowa Democrats’ best-known statewide figure, has won statewide before, and appears to face no comparably strong primary rival. Incumbent-like name recognition and fundraising make him a heavy favorite.”

Will Choo Mi-ae win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election?

May 8 · Ends 2026-06-03

“Choo is a prominent DP figure with name recognition, but gubernatorial races hinge on party climate, candidate field, and local dynamics. Without clear evidence she is the frontrunner, her chances look plausible but below even.”

Will Enrique Peñalosa win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

May 8 · Ends 2026-05-31

“Peñalosa is a known figure but not a leading national favorite for a first-round presidential win; Colombia’s fragmented field makes outright first-round victories rare, and his path to finishing first looks weak.”

Will Dominic Solanke be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 English Premier League season?

May 8 · Ends 2026-05-27

“With the 2025–26 season nearly complete by May 8, Solanke would need to be leading or very close. He is not among the likeliest Golden Boot winners versus elite scorers like Haaland/Salah/Isak, so his chance is extremely low.”

Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga?

May 8 · Ends 2026-05-30

“By early May the title race is near resolution; if Real Madrid haven’t already clinched, they’re likely trailing with few matches left. Even as a top club, overturning late deficits in La Liga is uncommon.”

Will Jasmine Paolini win the 2026 Women’s French Open?

May 8 · Ends 2026-06-06

“Paolini is a strong clay-court player and recent Roland Garros finalist, but a single player’s title odds in a Slam are usually low. She faces elite rivals and must win 7 matches; even top contenders rarely exceed ~20%.”

Will Stefanos Tsitsipas win the 2026 Men's French Open?

May 8 · Ends 2026-06-07

“Tsitsipas is a strong clay player, but by 2026 he faces tougher, younger elite rivals and likely lower title odds than top favorites. A single-player Slam win field is crowded; his chance looks low but not negligible.”

Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?

May 8 · Ends 2026-05-26

“Paxton has strong statewide name ID and deep support among Texas GOP primary voters, but Cornyn’s establishment backing and resources keep it close. Slight edge to Paxton in a polarized, Trump-aligned electorate.”

Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026?

May 8 · Ends 2026-05-16

“Eurovision has many contenders and Latvia is rarely among the top favorites. With only one winner from ~37 acts and no strong evidence Latvia leads this year, its win chance is low but not negligible.”

Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026?

May 8 · Ends 2026-05-16

“Montenegro is a small Eurovision country with no prior wins and typically low bookmaker/implied baseline. With many stronger contenders and only one winner, its chance is very low, around 1%.”

Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open?

May 8 · Ends 2026-06-07

“Musetti is an elite clay-courter and plausible deep-run threat, but winning Roland Garros requires beating multiple top rivals. He is not the field favorite; a single-player title chance is low but clearly above negligible.”

Will Derek Dooley be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia?

May 8 · Ends 2026-05-19

“Dooley has name recognition but entered late and lacks proven statewide political strength. Better-known or more established GOP contenders usually have an edge in primaries, leaving him a meaningful but clearly sub-50 shot.”

Will Christian Estrosi win the 2026 Nice mayoral election?

May 8 · Ends 2026-05-22

“Incumbent mayors in major French cities often retain strong local machines and name recognition. Estrosi is a durable local figure, though age, fatigue, and opposition coordination keep this far from certain.”

Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?

May 8 · Ends 2026-05-27

“By May 8, 2026 the title race is near resolution; if City were likely champions they'd usually be leading or in control. Given strong rivals and limited time left, City winning from here looks unlikely but not impossible.”

Will Luis Gilberto Murillo win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

May 8 · Ends 2026-05-31

“Winning outright in Colombia’s 1st round is rare and requires >50%. Murillo is a plausible contender but not a dominant favorite; fragmented field and runoff dynamics make a first-round win unlikely.”

Will Joe Hunter win Survivor Season 50?

May 8 · Ends 2026-05-20

“Any named contestant in a large Survivor cast has low base-rate win odds. Without strong evidence Joe Hunter is a standout favorite late in the season, a single-player win chance is only a few percent.”

Will Wesley Said be the top goal scorer in the 2025-26 Ligue 1 season?

May 8 · Ends 2026-05-30

“Said is not among Ligue 1’s usual elite scorers and would need to outscore stars/primary strikers across the league. Very late in the season, a surprise top-scorer outcome from him is extremely unlikely.”

Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National Assembly election?

May 8 · Ends 2026-06-07

“Civil Contract remains the incumbent with organizational advantages and a fragmented opposition, but anti-incumbent sentiment and Armenia’s volatile security/political environment keep this far from certain.”

Will Armenia Alliance win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National Assembly election?

May 8 · Ends 2026-06-07

“Civil Contract remains the likeliest largest bloc given incumbency and fragmented opposition. Armenia Alliance is a major challenger, but winning the most seats by 2026 appears possible yet clearly less likely than not.”

Will Denis Shapovalov win the 2026 Men's French Open?

May 8 · Ends 2026-06-07

“Shapovalov has never been a top clay-court favorite and would need to beat multiple elite clay specialists over best-of-5. A French Open title from him in 2026 would be a major upset, so the chance is very low.”

Will Marin Cilic win the 2026 Men's French Open?

May 8 · Ends 2026-06-07

“Cilic is late-career and historically not strongest on clay; winning Roland-Garros requires beating multiple elite clay players over best-of-5. His true title chances are extremely low.”

Will Matteo Berrettini win the 2026 Men's French Open?

May 8 · Ends 2026-06-07

“Berrettini is a strong player but not a clay-court favorite, and by 2026 he faces age/injury concerns plus elite competition (Alcaraz, Sinner, Djokovic/Nadal successors). His French Open title chances are very low.”

Will Hubert Hurkacz win the 2026 Men's French Open?

May 8 · Ends 2026-06-07

“Hurkacz is a strong player but clay is his weakest surface, and Roland Garros is usually dominated by elite clay specialists. He’d need to beat multiple top contenders over best-of-5, making his title chances very low.”

Will Reilly Opelka win the 2026 Men's French Open?

May 8 · Ends 2026-06-07

“Opelka is a big-serving player with limited clay-court upside and no major title history. Roland Garros favors elite movers/baseliner specialists; his path would require multiple major upsets.”

Will Tomas Machac win the 2026 Men's French Open?

May 8 · Ends 2026-06-07

“Machac is a solid player but not an established clay-court Slam favorite. Roland Garros is usually won by elite top-tier contenders; his path would likely require multiple major upsets.”

Will Alejandro Tabilo win the 2026 Men's French Open?

May 8 · Ends 2026-06-07

“Tabilo is a capable clay-courter but not an elite, consistent Slam favorite. With Alcaraz, Sinner, Djokovic and other top contenders in the field, his title chances at Roland Garros are extremely low.”

Will Ugo Humbert win the 2026 Men's French Open?

May 8 · Ends 2026-06-07

“Humbert is a strong player but not a top clay-court favorite. Roland-Garros is dominated by elite clay specialists; his title chances are low versus players like Alcaraz, Sinner, Djokovic and other contenders.”

Will Tommy Paul win the 2026 Men's French Open?

May 8 · Ends 2026-06-07

“Paul is a strong player but not a leading Roland Garros favorite. Clay specialists and top-tier contenders make his title chances very low; a win would be a major upset.”

Will Cameron Norrie win the 2026 Men's French Open?

May 8 · Ends 2026-06-07

“Norrie is a solid clay-court player but not an elite Roland-Garros favorite. By 2026 he faces stronger title contenders and age-related decline, making a Slam win here very unlikely.”

Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open?

May 8 · Ends 2026-06-07

“Jodar is a long-shot relative to established ATP clay elites. Winning Roland Garros typically requires top-tier proven best-of-5 clay performance; absent major breakthrough evidence, his title chances by June 2026 are very low.”

Will Alexander Bublik win the 2026 Men's French Open?

May 8 · Ends 2026-06-07

“Bublik is a talented but inconsistent player whose game is less suited to clay than top contenders. Winning Roland Garros would require a major upset over several elite clay-court specialists.”

Will Alex Michelsen win the 2026 Men's French Open?

May 8 · Ends 2026-06-07

“Michelsen is a promising young player but not an established elite clay-court contender. Winning Roland Garros requires beating multiple top clay specialists; his chance is very low relative to the field.”

Will Frances Tiafoe win the 2026 Men's French Open?

May 8 · Ends 2026-06-07

“Tiafoe is a strong player but not a top clay-court favorite. Roland Garros is usually won by elite clay specialists or top-tier contenders; his title chances are very low relative to the field.”

Will Francisco Cerundolo win the 2026 Men's French Open?

May 8 · Ends 2026-06-07

“Cerundolo is a strong clay-courter but not among the top few Roland-Garros favorites. Winning a Slam requires beating multiple elite opponents; his title chance is real but low, in the low single digits.”

Will Alex De Minaur win the 2026 Men's French Open?

May 8 · Ends 2026-06-07

“De Minaur is a strong player but not a top clay-court favorite. Roland Garros is usually won by elite clay specialists or top-tier stars; his title chances are low in a deep field.”

Will Alexei Popyrin win the 2026 Men's French Open?

May 8 · Ends 2026-06-07

“Popyrin is a capable ATP player but not an established elite clay-court contender; winning Roland-Garros would require a major upset over multiple top specialists.”

Will Felix Auger Aliassime win the 2026 Men's French Open?

May 8 · Ends 2026-06-07

“Auger-Aliassime is a strong player but not an elite clay-court favorite, and Roland Garros is usually won by a very small top tier. His title chances are low relative to leading contenders.”

Will Karen Khachanov win the 2026 Men's French Open?

May 8 · Ends 2026-06-07

“Khachanov is a strong player but not an elite clay favorite. Roland Garros is usually won by top-tier contenders like Alcaraz, Sinner, Djokovic or Nadal-level clay specialists; his title chances are low.”

Will Jack Draper win the 2026 Men's French Open?

May 8 · Ends 2026-06-07

“Draper is an elite talent but clay/Bo5 at Roland Garros remains a tougher fit than hard courts. He’d need to beat multiple top clay specialists; plausible contender, but still a clear long shot versus the field.”

Will Jan-Lennard Struff win the 2026 Men's French Open?

May 8 · Ends 2026-06-07

“Struff is a long shot: older player, limited deep Slam results, and clay specialists plus top contenders make a French Open title extremely unlikely.”

Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Men's French Open?

May 8 · Ends 2026-06-07

“Mensik is a rising talent but Roland Garros is clay-specific and usually won by elite, proven clay-court contenders. He’d need a major breakthrough against stronger favorites, making his title chances low but not negligible.”

Will Jiri Lehecka win the 2026 Men's French Open?

May 8 · Ends 2026-06-07

“Lehecka is a solid top-level player but not a leading clay-court favorite. Roland Garros is usually won by elite clay specialists or top-3 caliber stars; his title path would require multiple major upsets.”

Will Taylor Fritz win the 2026 Men's French Open?

May 8 · Ends 2026-06-07

“Fritz is an elite player but clay is his weakest surface, and Roland Garros is dominated by stronger clay specialists and top all-court rivals. A title run is possible but clearly a long shot.”

Will Alejandro Davidovich Fokina win the 2026 Men's French Open?

May 8 · Ends 2026-06-07

“Davidovich Fokina is a strong clay-courter but not an elite favorite for a Slam title. Beating multiple top contenders over best-of-5 at Roland Garros is highly unlikely; true win chances are around 1%.”

Will Daniil Medvedev win the 2026 Men's French Open?

May 8 · Ends 2026-06-07

“Medvedev is an elite player but historically much weaker on clay than on hard courts, and Roland Garros likely runs through stronger clay specialists and top rivals. A title is plausible but clearly a long shot.”

Will Learner Tien win the 2026 Men's French Open?

May 8 · Ends 2026-06-07

“Tien is a promising young player but not an established top clay-court contender. Winning Roland Garros requires beating multiple elite clay specialists; his true title chances are very low.”

Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open?

May 8 · Ends 2026-06-07

“Cobolli is a capable clay-courter but not among the top favorites for Roland Garros. A Slam title requires beating multiple elite opponents over best-of-5 on clay; his current baseline chance is low, though not impossible.”

Will Sebastian Korda win the 2026 Men's French Open?

May 8 · Ends 2026-06-07

“Korda is a strong player but not a top clay-court favorite. Roland Garros is usually won by elite clay specialists/top-5 contenders, and Korda would need a major breakthrough plus favorable draw and health.”

Will Andrey Rublev win the 2026 Men's French Open?

May 8 · Ends 2026-06-07

“Rublev is a strong clay-court player but not among the top French Open favorites. He has never won a Slam, and likely faces multiple higher-upside contenders like Alcaraz, Sinner, Djokovic or Nadal-level threats.”

Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's French Open?

May 8 · Ends 2026-06-07

“Ruud is a strong clay-court player and multiple-time Roland Garros finalist, but he has not yet won a Slam and likely faces stronger title favorites like Alcaraz/Sinner/Djokovic-level contenders.”

Will Arthur Fils win the 2026 Men's French Open?

May 8 · Ends 2026-06-07

“Fils is talented and French, but winning Roland-Garros requires beating multiple elite clay players over best-of-5. As of early May 2026 he’s not the clear favorite, so his title chances are low but real.”

Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open?

May 8 · Ends 2026-06-07

“Djokovic is an all-time great but will be 39 at Roland Garros 2026. Clay is less favorable than hard courts, and younger elite rivals make a title run unlikely, though not impossible.”

Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's French Open?

May 8 · Ends 2026-06-07

“Sinner is an elite contender, but Roland Garros is highly competitive and clay favors specialists like Alcaraz/Nadal-successors. Even top favorites rarely exceed ~25-30% in a 128-player Slam field.”

Will Ben Shelton win the 2026 Men's French Open?

May 8 · Ends 2026-06-07

“Shelton is an elite talent but clay is not his best surface, and Roland Garros has a deep field with stronger clay specialists. Any single player’s title odds are usually low; Shelton’s look in the low single digits.”

Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open?

May 8 · Ends 2026-06-07

“Fonseca is a high-upside young talent, but winning Roland Garros by June 2026 would require beating an elite clay-field. A first Slam title at this stage is possible but still a long shot versus established contenders.”

Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open?

May 8 · Ends 2026-06-07

“Zverev is an elite clay-court player and plausible contender, but Roland Garros is highly competitive with Alcaraz, Sinner, Djokovic and others. Any single player’s title odds are usually well below 20%; Zverev’s look around low teens.”

Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Men's French Open?

May 8 · Ends 2026-06-07

“Alcaraz is among the top clay-court contenders and likely one of the favorites, but a Slam field is deep and even favorites rarely exceed ~35-40% pre-tournament due to injury, form, and draw uncertainty.”

Will Real Betis reach the UEFA Europa League semifinal?

May 7 · Ends 2026-05-08✓ CorrectBrier: 0.006

“Betis are a solid side but reaching a Europa League semifinal requires surviving multiple knockout rounds against stronger/deeper clubs. Typical pre-knockout odds for a team of Betis’ level are well below 20%.”

Will Porto reach the UEFA Europa League semifinal?

May 7 · Ends 2026-05-08✓ CorrectBrier: 0.032

“By May 7, 2026 the Europa League semifinals are effectively set/underway. Porto would need to have already advanced; absent evidence they did, the chance they reached the semis is low.”

Will Israel be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?

May 7 · Ends 2026-05-16

“Israel is a plausible contender but any single country winning Eurovision juries is low-probability in a crowded field; absent strong song/rehearsal evidence, base rates favor the rest of the field.”

Will Greece be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?

May 7 · Ends 2026-05-16

“With only days to go and no strong evidence Greece is the standout jury favorite, base rates dominate: any single country usually has a low chance in a crowded field. Greece is plausible but clearly not the most likely jury winner.”

Will Jonathan Young win Survivor Season 50?

May 7 · Ends 2026-05-20

“A single named contestant winning a Survivor season is usually a low-probability event absent strong spoiler/evidence. With many competitors and no clear dominant signal here, Jonathan Young remains a long shot.”

Will Ozzy Lusth win Survivor Season 50?

May 7 · Ends 2026-05-20

“Any single named contestant is usually a long shot in a large returnee cast. Ozzy is iconic but older, a known threat, and likely targeted early or before FTC, making an outright win unlikely.”

Will Gonzalo Garcia be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 La Liga season?

May 7 · Ends 2026-05-30

“Top scorer is usually an elite, established attacker with heavy minutes and penalties. Gonzalo Garcia is not among the main pre-season favorites, so his chance is very low barring a breakout or injuries to rivals.”

Will Chun Jae-soo win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election?

May 7 · Ends 2026-06-03

“Incumbency/party machinery and Busan’s recent conservative lean make any named challenger an underdog absent strong polling. With limited evidence Chun Jae-soo is the frontrunner, his win looks possible but unlikely.”

Will Sunrisers Hyderabad win the 2026 Indian Premier League?

May 7 · Ends 2026-05-31

“IPL titles are hard to win in a 10-team league; even strong contenders rarely exceed ~15%. SRH are plausible but not clear favorites, so a single-team title chance around 8% is reasonable.”

Will Lucknow Super Giants win the 2026 Indian Premier League?

May 7 · Ends 2026-05-31

“An IPL title is a low-base-rate outcome in a 10-team league. LSG are plausible contenders but not clear favorites; with several strong rivals, their championship chance is around 1 in 11.”

Will Coco Gauff win the 2026 Women’s French Open?

May 7 · Ends 2026-06-06

“Gauff is an elite clay-court contender and former French Open finalist/champion-level threat, but a single-player outright before the event is usually well below 50% given field depth, injuries, and variance over seven matches.”

Will Karolína Muchová win the 2026 Women’s French Open?

May 7 · Ends 2026-06-06

“Muchová is talented on clay but is not a top favorite and has recurring injury concerns. In a 128-player Slam field, even elite non-favorites usually have only low single-digit title chances.”

Will Bianca Andreescu win the 2026 Women’s French Open?

May 7 · Ends 2026-06-06

“Andreescu is a talented former major champion, but clay is not her best surface and she has had recurring injury/consistency issues. In a 128-player Slam with several stronger clay specialists, her title chances are low.”

Will Mirra Andreeva win the 2026 Women’s French Open?

May 7 · Ends 2026-06-06

“Andreeva is an elite young clay-court contender, but a single-player Slam title before June 2026 still faces a strong field and tournament variance. Her chance is meaningful but well below even odds.”

Will Qinwen Zheng win the 2026 Women’s French Open?

May 7 · Ends 2026-06-06

“Zheng is an elite clay-court contender, but a Slam title requires beating a deep field over 7 matches. Even top non-favorites usually have single-digit to low-teens title odds at Roland Garros.”

Will Linda Nosková win the 2026 Women’s French Open?

May 7 · Ends 2026-06-06

“Nosková is talented but not among the top clay-court favorites. Winning a Slam requires beating multiple elite opponents over two weeks; her baseline chance in this field is low, around a few percent.”

Will Leylah Fernandez win the 2026 Women’s French Open?

May 7 · Ends 2026-06-06

“Fernandez is a strong player but not among the top clay-court favorites for Roland Garros. Winning requires beating multiple elite opponents on her weakest surface; base rate for any one nonfavorite is very low.”

Will Elina Svitolina win the 2026 Women’s French Open?

May 7 · Ends 2026-06-06

“Svitolina is a strong clay-court veteran, but a single-player Slam title chance is low. Younger elite contenders and depth at Roland Garros make her winning the 2026 French Open unlikely.”

Will Madison Keys win the 2026 Women’s French Open?

May 7 · Ends 2026-06-06

“Keys is an elite hard-court player but historically less dominant on clay; Roland Garros has many strong contenders and a 128-player field, making any single player’s title odds low.”

Will Jelena Ostapenko win the 2026 Women’s French Open?

May 7 · Ends 2026-06-06

“Ostapenko is a proven clay threat and past RG champion, but a single player winning a Slam is rare. Given age, inconsistency, and strong rivals like Swiatek/Sabalenka/Gauff, her title chances appear low but not negligible.”

Will Jessica Pegula win the 2026 Women’s French Open?

May 7 · Ends 2026-06-06

“Pegula is an elite hard-court player but clay is not her best surface. Roland Garros has many stronger clay specialists and multiple top contenders, making any single player’s title odds low.”

Will Maya Joint win the 2026 Women’s French Open?

May 7 · Ends 2026-06-06

“Maya Joint is a long shot versus the established elite on clay. Winning Roland-Garros typically requires top-tier pedigree, seeding, and deep clay results; absent that, her title chances are very low.”

Will Belinda Bencic win the 2026 Women’s French Open?

May 7 · Ends 2026-06-06

“Bencic is a strong player but not a clay-court favorite, and Roland Garros has several higher-probability contenders. Any single player’s title odds are low; hers look in the low single digits.”

Will Elena Rybakina win the 2026 Women’s French Open?

May 7 · Ends 2026-06-06

“Rybakina is an elite contender, but Roland Garros has a deep field and clay specialists. Even top players usually have single-digit to low-teens title odds before the event; 8% reflects strong but clearly non-favorite chances.”

Will Victoria Mboko win the 2026 Women’s French Open?

May 7 · Ends 2026-06-06

“Mboko is a promising young player but not among the established top clay-court favorites. Winning Roland Garros requires elite form and deep Slam experience; the field is strong, so her title odds are low.”

Will Amanda Anisimova win the 2026 Women’s French Open?

May 7 · Ends 2026-06-06

“Anisimova is talented and dangerous on clay, but a Slam title requires beating multiple elite opponents. In a 128-player field with several stronger or more proven contenders, her outright win chance is low but not negligible.”

Will Viktor Gyokeres be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer?

May 7 · Ends 2026-05-30

“Top UCL scorer is a low-base-rate market spread among elite forwards on deep runs. Gyokeres is prolific but less likely than stars at top contenders, and only a few matches remain by 2026-05-07.”

Will David Farley win the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives?

May 7 · Ends 2026-05-09

“Farrer is a very safe Liberal seat; unless Farley is the Liberal candidate or there’s an extraordinary upset, a by-election win is highly unlikely. With little evidence he’s the frontrunner, YES odds are very low.”

Will Raissa Butkowski win the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives?

May 7 · Ends 2026-05-09

“Farrer is a very safe Liberal/National Coalition seat; absent extraordinary local dynamics, a non-Coalition candidate like Raissa Butkowski is highly unlikely to win a by-election there.”

Will Christian Hubicki win Survivor Season 50?

May 7 · Ends 2026-05-20

“Any named contestant in a large Survivor returnee cast has low base-rate win odds. Christian is popular and capable, but strong threat level and many competitors make his title chances only a few percent.”

Will Charlie Davis win Survivor Season 50?

May 7 · Ends 2026-05-20

“A single named contestant winning a large Survivor cast is usually a low-probability event. Even strong returning players face many elimination paths; absent dominant spoiler-level evidence, Charlie is a long shot.”

Will Scottish Labour win the most seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliament election?

May 6 · Ends 2026-05-07✓ CorrectBrier: 0.032

“On the eve of the vote, SNP remains the likeliest largest party in Scotland despite Labour gains. Holyrood’s electoral system also makes outright seat leads harder for challengers unless they clearly dominate constituency contests.”

Will Fiorentina reach the UEFA Europa Conference League semifinal?

May 6 · Ends 2026-05-08

“By May 6, 2026 the semifinalists should already be known. Fiorentina are not among the likely remaining teams, so their chance of having reached the semis is low.”

Will Eric Ciotti win the 2026 Nice mayoral election?

May 6 · Ends 2026-05-22

“Ciotti is a prominent local figure with a strong base, but French municipal races are coalition-driven and Nice has competitive center-right dynamics. With limited current polling, he looks plausible but not favored.”

Will Rayo Vallecano reach the UEFA Conference League final?

May 6 · Ends 2026-05-08

“Rayo Vallecano are not a regular European contender and reaching a UEFA final from that baseline is extremely unlikely. With resolution imminent, absent evidence they are already in the semifinal/final path, YES is near-minimal.”

Will Shakhtar Donetsk reach the UEFA Conference League final?

May 6 · Ends 2026-05-08

“By May 6, 2026 the Conference League final is imminent; if Shakhtar had reached it, that would almost certainly already be known. Given no indication they did and their uncertain participation path, YES is extremely unlikely.”

Will Crystal Palace reach the UEFA Conference League final?

May 6 · Ends 2026-05-08

“By May 6, 2026 the Conference League final is imminent; Crystal Palace are not a regular deep European contender, so absent evidence they’re in the semis/final path, reaching the final is very unlikely.”

Will Crystal Palace reach the UEFA Europa Conference League semifinal?

May 6 · Ends 2026-05-08

“By 2026-05-06, semifinalists should already be known or nearly settled; Crystal Palace are not a typical Conference League semifinalist and likely were not in the competition deep enough to qualify.”

Will AEK Athens reach the UEFA Europa Conference League semifinal?

May 6 · Ends 2026-05-08

“By May 6, 2026 the Conference League semifinals are effectively set/played. AEK Athens are very unlikely to be among the final four given their absence from late-stage European contention.”

Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election?

May 6 · Ends 2026-06-03

“Han Dong-hoon is a prominent conservative, but Gyeonggi is highly competitive and often leans against conservatives in major races. Without clear polling/nomination certainty, his path looks possible but less likely than not.”

Will Charalambos Kostoulas be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 English Premier League season?

May 6 · Ends 2026-05-27

“Extremely unlikely: Kostoulas is not an established EPL star/regular scorer, and with only weeks left in 2025–26, the Golden Boot is almost certainly led by proven high-volume forwards.”

Will Nottingham Forest reach the UEFA Europa League final?

May 5 · Ends 2026-05-07

“By 2026-05-05 the Europa League finalists are effectively known; Nottingham Forest are not in the final. Even ex ante this was a long shot for a non-elite club.”

Will Aston Villa reach the UEFA Europa League final?

May 5 · Ends 2026-05-07

“By 2026-05-05 the Europa League final is imminent; Aston Villa are not among the finalists, so reaching the final is effectively ruled out barring extraordinary reporting error.”

Will Freiburg reach the UEFA Europa League final?

May 5 · Ends 2026-05-07

“By May 5, 2026 the Europa League final is imminent; Freiburg would almost certainly already need to have won/been in the semifinal. As a non-elite contender, their chance at this point is effectively near zero.”

Will Braga reach the UEFA Europa League final?

May 5 · Ends 2026-05-07

“By May 5, 2026 the Europa League final is imminent; Braga would almost certainly already need to have won a semifinal. Braga are not among the usual top EL finalists, so the chance they still reach the final is very low.”

Will Woo Sang-ho win the 2026 Gangwon Province gubernatorial election?

May 5 · Ends 2026-06-03

“Incumbency/party strength in Gangwon has recently favored conservatives, and Woo Sang-ho is better known nationally than as a local favorite. Without strong evidence of a late surge, his win looks unlikely.”

Will the Reserve Bank of Australia make no change to the target for the cash rate after the May Meeting?

May 5 · Ends 2026-05-05

“RBA often moves gradually and may prefer to hold if inflation/employment are near target. Without fresh shock context, a no-change decision at a scheduled meeting is more likely than a move.”

Will Jim Baird be the Republican nominee for IN-04?

May 4 · Ends 2026-05-05

“Incumbent Jim Baird has held IN-04 since 2019 and faced no major visible renomination threat by the eve of resolution. House incumbents in safe districts almost always secure renomination absent scandal or strong opposition.”

Will Hong Soon-heon win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election?

May 4 · Ends 2026-06-03

“Busan has recently leaned conservative in major races, and Hong Soon-heon is not the clear frontrunner. Without strong evidence of momentum or coalition advantage, his win odds appear modest.”

Will Park Seong-hoon win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election?

May 4 · Ends 2026-06-03

“Busan leans conservative, which helps Park, but mayoral races are candidate- and coalition-sensitive. With limited current polling/context, he looks competitive but not a clear favorite.”

Will Kim Young-choon win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election?

May 4 · Ends 2026-06-03

“Busan has leaned conservative in recent major races, so a Democratic candidate faces headwinds. Kim Young-choon is viable and known locally, but absent strong contrary polling, he looks somewhat less likely than the field/opponent.”

Will Lee Jae-sung win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election?

May 4 · Ends 2026-06-03

“Busan has leaned conservative in recent major races, making a Lee Jae-sung win an uphill battle absent strong polling or a major national swing. Opposition victories are possible, but base rates favor NO.”

Will Cho Kyoung-tae win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election?

May 4 · Ends 2026-06-03

“Cho Kyoung-tae is a prominent conservative in a conservative-leaning city, but mayoral races depend heavily on party nomination, national mood, and local coalitions. With limited current race-specific evidence, he looks plausible but not favored.”

Will Park Jae-ho win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election?

May 4 · Ends 2026-06-03

“Without strong evidence he is the frontrunner, any single named candidate in a major-city mayoral race is usually an underdog. Base-rate and uncertainty favor the field over Park Jae-ho specifically.”

Will Bae June-young win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election?

May 4 · Ends 2026-06-03

“Incumbency, party strength, and local machine matter heavily in Korean mayoral races. Without strong evidence Bae June-young is the clear frontrunner, he appears more likely than not to lose, though still a plausible contender.”

Will Chung Il-young win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election?

May 4 · Ends 2026-06-03

“Incumbency, party machinery, and name recognition usually dominate Korean mayoral races. Without strong evidence Chung Il-young is the frontrunner, a win appears possible but clearly less likely than not.”

Will Kim Wan-seop win the 2026 Gangwon Province gubernatorial election?

May 4 · Ends 2026-06-03

“Incumbency, party strength, and name recognition usually dominate gubernatorial races. With limited evidence Kim Wan-seop is the frontrunner, he appears a clear underdog this close to election day.”

Will Kweon Seong-dong win the 2026 Gangwon Province gubernatorial election?

May 4 · Ends 2026-06-03

“Incumbency and major-party backing usually dominate Korean gubernatorial races; absent strong evidence Kweon Seong-dong is the leading nominee/front-runner, his win looks unlikely.”

Will Lee Hak-jae win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election?

May 4 · Ends 2026-06-03

“Incumbency and party strength usually matter heavily in Korean mayoral races. With limited evidence Lee Hak-jae is the clear frontrunner, he appears a plausible but distinctly underdog challenger.”

Will Kim Jin-tae win the 2026 Gangwon Province gubernatorial election?

May 4 · Ends 2026-06-03

“Incumbency in Gangwon and Kim Jin-tae’s established regional base give him an edge, but South Korean local races can swing with national mood and opposition coordination, keeping this far from certain.”

Will Kim Do-kyun win the 2026 Gangwon Province gubernatorial election?

May 4 · Ends 2026-06-03

“Incumbency, party strength, and name recognition usually dominate provincial governor races. Kim Do-kyun appears less likely than major-party frontrunners absent strong polling or a major late shift.”

Will Kang Hoon-sik win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial election?

May 4 · Ends 2026-06-03

“Incumbency, party strength, and name recognition usually dominate Korean gubernatorial races. Without strong evidence Kang Hoon-sik is the clear frontrunner, his win looks possible but distinctly unlikely.”

Will Park Heong-joon win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election?

May 4 · Ends 2026-06-03

“Incumbency and Busan’s recent conservative lean favor Park, though national political swings and candidate field uncertainty leave substantial upset risk.”

Will Chung Jin-suk win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial election?

May 4 · Ends 2026-06-03

“Incumbency/party dynamics in Chungcheongnam have recently favored the DP, and Chung Jin-suk is a prominent conservative but not an obvious frontrunner here. Without strong evidence of his candidacy strength, YES looks unlikely.”

Will Kang Seung-kyu win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial election?

May 4 · Ends 2026-06-03

“Incumbency/local machine and party dynamics usually matter heavily in gubernatorial races. Kang Seung-kyu is a plausible contender but not a clear favorite; absent strong polling evidence, his win odds look below even.”

Will Kim Do-eup win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election?

May 4 · Ends 2026-06-03

“Busan has leaned conservative in recent local races, but mayoral outcomes depend heavily on party nomination and national mood. Kim Do-eup appears plausible yet not favored enough to clear 50% this far out.”

Will Song Gi-heon win the 2026 Gangwon Province gubernatorial election?

May 4 · Ends 2026-06-03

“Incumbency, party strength, and candidate viability likely favor better-known major-party contenders. Without strong evidence Song Gi-heon is the leading nominee or frontrunner, his win appears possible but unlikely.”

Will Park Nam-choon win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election?

May 4 · Ends 2026-06-03

“Park Nam-choon is a former mayor and would need a strong comeback. Incumbency/party dynamics and limited evidence of him leading make a win possible but unlikely this close to the election.”

Will Won Chang-muk win the 2026 Gangwon Province gubernatorial election?

May 4 · Ends 2026-06-03

“Won Chang-muk appears to be a lower-profile contender without clear signs of frontrunner status. Incumbency, major-party backing, and name recognition usually dominate Korean gubernatorial races, so his win looks unlikely.”

Will Moon Jin-seok win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial election?

May 4 · Ends 2026-06-03

“Incumbency, party strength, and local machine usually matter heavily in Korean gubernatorial races; without strong evidence Moon Jin-seok is the clear frontrunner, an upset win looks unlikely but plausible.”

Will Kim Moon-soo win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election?

May 4 · Ends 2026-06-03

“Kim Moon-soo is a well-known conservative, but Gyeonggi has recently leaned Democratic in major races and incumbency/party environment likely make his path narrow absent strong late momentum.”

Will Sung Il-jong win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial election?

May 4 · Ends 2026-06-03

“Incumbency/local machine and party baseline matter in Chungnam. Sung Il-jong is a plausible conservative contender, but absent clear polling or nomination certainty, he looks like an underdog rather than favorite.”

Will Kim Kyo-heung win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election?

May 4 · Ends 2026-06-03

“Kim Kyo-heung appears less prominent than top likely contenders for Incheon mayor. Incumbency, party nomination dynamics, and name recognition make his path to victory relatively narrow this close to the election.”

Will Kim Eun-hye win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election?

May 4 · Ends 2026-06-03

“Kim Eun-hye is a prominent PPP figure and was competitive in 2022, but Gyeonggi is highly contested and opposition strength plus incumbency/demographic headwinds make her a modest underdog absent clearer late-campaign evidence.”

Will Yeom Tae-yeong win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election?

May 4 · Ends 2026-06-03

“Yeom is a notable Democratic figure and former Suwon mayor, but gubernatorial races hinge on party climate, nomination strength, and incumbency/opposition dynamics. Without clear evidence he is the frontrunner, his win looks possible but not favored.”

Will Yang Seung-jo win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial election?

May 4 · Ends 2026-06-03

“Yang Seung-jo is a known former governor, but incumbency and recent national/local political trends likely favor the ruling/conservative camp in Chungnam. Name recognition keeps him competitive, but he appears an underdog.”

Will Lee Un-ju win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election?

May 4 · Ends 2026-06-03

“Lee Un-ju appears to be a less prominent contender in a major provincial race; absent strong polling or major-party backing, individual win odds are typically low this close to election day.”

Will Choi In-ho win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election?

May 4 · Ends 2026-06-03

“Busan has leaned conservative in recent major races, making a Choi In-ho win an underdog outcome absent strong polling or a major opposition split. Still plausible if national mood shifts or local dynamics favor him.”

Will Won Hee-ryong win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election?

May 4 · Ends 2026-06-03

“Won Hee-ryong is a prominent conservative, but Gyeonggi is highly competitive and often leans with national mood. Without clear evidence he is the nominee/front-runner, his win chances appear meaningfully below even.”

Will Yoon Sang-hyun win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election?

May 4 · Ends 2026-06-03

“Yoon Sang-hyun is a notable conservative figure, but mayoral races hinge on party nomination, local alliances, and national mood. With uncertainty over final candidates and incumbency dynamics, his path looks possible but less likely than not.”

Will Yoon Sang-hyun win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial election?

May 4 · Ends 2026-06-03

“Yoon Sang-hyun is better known as an Incheon-based national politician, not a clear frontrunner in South Chungcheong. Incumbency/local party strength and candidate uncertainty make his win relatively unlikely.”

Will Lee Jun-seok win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election?

May 4 · Ends 2026-06-03

“Lee Jun-seok has name recognition and appeal to some younger/anti-establishment voters, but Gyeonggi is highly competitive and major-party machines usually dominate gubernatorial races. He looks like an underdog absent strong polling.”

Will Lee Kwang-jae win the 2026 Gangwon Province gubernatorial election?

May 4 · Ends 2026-06-03

“Lee Kwang-jae is a prominent figure with regional ties, but South Korea’s local races are highly party-driven and competitive. Without clear evidence of frontrunner status this close to the vote, he looks less likely than not to win.”

Will Yoo Dong-soo win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election?

May 4 · Ends 2026-06-03

“Yoo Dong-soo appears to be a lesser-known contender versus major-party candidates in a high-profile metropolitan race. Without strong evidence of frontrunner status, his win odds look clearly below even.”

Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election?

May 4 · Ends 2026-06-03

“Na Kyung-won is a prominent conservative, but Gyeonggi is highly competitive and often leans against PPP in major races. Unclear she is even the definitive nominee; absent strong evidence, her win looks unlikely.”

Will Park Chan-dae win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election?

May 4 · Ends 2026-06-03

“Incumbency/local machine and party dynamics matter heavily in Korean mayoral races. Park Chan-dae is a prominent figure, but absent clear polling or nomination certainty, he looks somewhat less than even to win by June 2026.”

Will Suh Byung-soo win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election?

May 4 · Ends 2026-06-03

“Suh is a known conservative ex-mayor, but incumbency/party dynamics and candidate selection uncertainty make him an underdog this close to the election absent clear evidence he leads the field.”

Will Kim Byeong-ju win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election?

May 4 · Ends 2026-06-03

“Kim Byeong-ju is a plausible contender but not the clear favorite. Gyeonggi is highly competitive, and absent strong evidence he has secured a major-party nomination and lead, his win odds look below 1 in 5.”

Will Kim Dong-yeon win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election?

May 4 · Ends 2026-06-03

“Incumbency in Korea’s largest province, generally favorable Democratic strength in Gyeonggi, and Kim’s established profile give him an edge, though national mood and candidate quality keep it far from certain.”

Will the Democratic Party of Korea (DP) win the 2026 South Korean local elections?

May 4 · Ends 2026-06-03

“DP currently holds national momentum after recent political shifts and often benefits in mid-cycle local contests, but local candidate quality and regional strongholds keep a sizable chance of a split or PPP rebound.”

Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election?

May 4 · Ends 2026-06-03

“Ahn is a prominent national figure but not a clear favorite for Gyeonggi governor; party dynamics, candidate selection, and Gyeonggi’s competitive but often DP-leaning electorate make his win possible yet unlikely.”

Will Reform Party (RP) win the 2026 South Korean local elections?

May 4 · Ends 2026-06-03

“South Korea’s local elections are usually dominated by the major parties; Reform Party is a minor force with limited nationwide organization, making an outright overall win highly unlikely.”

Will the Rebuilding Korea Party (RKP) win the 2026 South Korean local elections?

May 4 · Ends 2026-06-03

“RKP is a newer, smaller party and local elections in South Korea are usually dominated by major parties with stronger regional machines. Winning overall in 2026 would require a major upset.”

Will Yoo Seong-min win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election?

May 4 · Ends 2026-06-03

“Yoo Seong-min is a prominent conservative, but Gyeonggi is highly competitive and often leans against conservatives in recent major races. Without clear evidence he is the frontrunner, his win looks possible but unlikely.”

Will Kim Tae-heum win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial election?

May 4 · Ends 2026-06-03

“Incumbency and regional conservative strength give Kim Tae-heum a modest edge, but Korean local races can swing with national mood and candidate dynamics, so only a slight favorite.”

Will Park Soo-hyun win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial election?

May 4 · Ends 2026-06-03

“Incumbency, party strength, and local machine usually matter heavily in Korean gubernatorial races; without strong evidence Park Soo-hyun is the clear frontrunner, he looks more like an underdog than favorite.”

Will Han Jun-ho win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election?

May 4 · Ends 2026-06-03

“Han Jun-ho is a notable DP figure but not the clear favorite for Gyeonggi governor; incumbency, party nomination dynamics, and stronger rivals make his outright win relatively unlikely.”

Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election

May 4 · Ends 2026-06-03

“Chong Won-oh appears to be a minor/less prominent contender versus better-known major-party candidates in Seoul. Without strong polling or coalition signals, his path to victory looks unlikely.”

Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election

May 4 · Ends 2026-06-03

“Park Yong-jin is a known Democratic politician but not a clear frontrunner for Seoul mayor. Seoul races are highly competitive and often favor better-established or incumbent-aligned candidates, so his win looks unlikely.”

Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election

May 4 · Ends 2026-06-03

“Incumbency and Oh Se-hoon’s strong profile in Seoul give him an edge, but South Korea’s volatile politics and possible anti-incumbent/national backlash keep this far from certain.”

Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election

May 4 · Ends 2026-06-03

“Ahn is a known national figure but has weak recent electoral traction and unclear path in Seoul’s local race; incumbency/party dynamics and stronger rivals make his win plausible but unlikely.”

Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election

May 4 · Ends 2026-06-03

“Na Kyung-won is a prominent conservative with name recognition, but Seoul has been competitive and candidate selection, opposition unity, and national political mood create substantial headwinds this close to the vote.”

Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election

May 4 · Ends 2026-06-03

“Jeon Hyun-heui is a plausible Democratic contender but not a clear frontrunner for Seoul mayor. Incumbency/opposition dynamics and stronger rival possibilities make her win materially possible yet unlikely.”

Will Yoo Jeong-bok win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election?

May 4 · Ends 2026-06-03

“Incumbency helps Yoo Jeong-bok, but South Korean local elections are highly nationalized and can swing with presidential approval. With limited late-campaign evidence here, I rate him a modest underdog rather than favorite.”

Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election

May 4 · Ends 2026-06-03

“Park Ju-min is a notable Democratic figure, but Seoul mayoral races are highly competitive and often favor better-known or better-positioned nominees. Without clear evidence he is the frontrunner, his win odds look below one-third.”

Will Kang Hoon-sik win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election

May 4 · Ends 2026-06-03

“Kang Hoon-sik is better known as a national politician than a Seoul mayoral frontrunner; absent strong evidence he is the main opposition or ruling-party nominee, his win odds appear low this close to the election.”

Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election

May 4 · Ends 2026-06-03

“Cho Kuk faces major legal/political headwinds and is not a clear frontrunner. Seoul mayoral races favor major-party nominees with strong organization; absent strong evidence of momentum, his win odds look low.”

Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election

May 4 · Ends 2026-06-03

“Han Dong-hoon is a prominent conservative, but Seoul often leans competitive-to-liberal in mayoral races, and candidate/party dynamics plus incumbency and coalition effects make him a clear underdog absent strong late momentum.”

Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election

May 4 · Ends 2026-06-03

“Hong Ihk-pyo is a plausible opposition contender but not the clear favorite; Seoul mayoral races are highly competitive and candidate selection, incumbency, and national mood likely leave him a clear underdog.”

Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election

May 4 · Ends 2026-06-03

“Park Hong-keun is a known Democratic politician but not a clear frontrunner for Seoul mayor as of early May 2026. Seoul is highly competitive and major-party nominee status plus polling strength are uncertain, keeping his win chances low.”

Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election

May 4 · Ends 2026-06-03

“Cho Eun-hee is a known PPP figure but not a clear frontrunner for Seoul mayor as of early May 2026; absent strong polling or nomination evidence, her path to victory looks unlikely.”

Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election

May 4 · Ends 2026-06-03

“Seo Young-kyo appears less likely than leading major-party contenders in a high-profile Seoul race. Without strong evidence she is the frontrunner, base rates and party dynamics favor other candidates.”

Will Kamilla Karthigesu win Survivor Season 50?

May 4 · Ends 2026-05-20

“Any named contestant in a large Survivor cast has low base-rate win odds. Without strong evidence Kamilla is a standout frontrunner this late, a single-player win chance is only a few percent.”

Will a hurricane form by May 31?

May 4 · Ends 2026-05-31

“By May 31, Atlantic/E Pacific hurricane formation is uncommon but not rare. Climatology suggests a low-to-moderate chance of at least one hurricane forming somewhere before June; roughly around 15-25%.”

Will Dylan Colbert advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?

May 3 · Ends 2026-06-02

“California’s top-two primary strongly favors major, well-funded, high-name-recognition candidates. Dylan Colbert appears to be a minor/low-visibility candidate, making advancement extremely unlikely.”

Will Bournemouth finish in 3rd place in the 2025-26 English Premier League?

May 3 · Ends 2026-05-27

“Bournemouth finishing exactly 3rd would be a major outlier versus typical EPL hierarchy. With only a few matches left, they’d need to be in strong position already; absent evidence of that, exact-3rd odds are extremely low.”

Will Larry Rhoden win the 2026 South Dakota Governor Republican primary election?

May 3 · Ends 2026-06-02

“As incumbent governor after Noem’s departure, Rhoden has strong establishment support and name recognition in a heavily GOP state. Primary risk remains from a stronger challenger, but incumbency makes him the favorite.”

Will Duke Rodriguez win the 2026 New Mexico Governor Republican primary election?

May 3 · Ends 2026-06-02

“Rodriguez is a prominent, well-funded GOP contender with statewide name recognition and establishment appeal. With the primary close and no clearly stronger rival evident, he appears more likely than not to win, though primaries remain volatile.”

Will Derek Grasty advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?

May 3 · Ends 2026-06-02

“California’s top-two primary strongly favors well-funded, high-name-recognition candidates. Derek Grasty appears to be a minor/low-visibility candidate, making advancement to the general election extremely unlikely.”

Will Shannon Lundgren be the Republican Nominee for IA-02?

May 3 · Ends 2026-06-02

“Lundgren is a known GOP figure in IA-02, but nomination odds depend on field strength, endorsements, fundraising, and ballot status. With limited evidence she’s the clear frontrunner, she appears an underdog rather than favorite.”

Will Cole Bettles receive the most votes in the CA-11 primary?

May 3 · Ends 2026-06-02

“CA-11 is a deep-blue Pelosi seat; Bettles has low name recognition and little visible establishment support. Better-known Democrats are far more likely to top the primary vote.”

Will Matt Mahan advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?

May 3 · Ends 2026-06-02

“Mahan is a moderate Democratic mayor with limited statewide profile and fundraising versus better-known Democrats/Republicans. In California’s top-two primary, advancing likely requires a much stronger statewide base than he appears to have.”

Will Dusty Johnson win the 2026 South Dakota Governor Republican primary election?

May 3 · Ends 2026-06-02

“Johnson is a well-known at-large congressman with strong statewide name ID and fundraising. In a GOP primary field, that makes him a clear favorite, though not a lock if a strong MAGA challenger consolidates anti-establishment voters.”

Will Toby Doeden win the 2026 South Dakota Governor Republican primary election?

May 3 · Ends 2026-06-02

“Doeden has money and outsider appeal, but Rhoden’s incumbency, establishment backing, and statewide network usually confer a clear edge in a GOP primary absent a major scandal or split.”

Will Darren Helton receive the most votes in the CA-11 primary?

May 3 · Ends 2026-06-02

“CA-11 is a heavily Democratic, high-profile Pelosi seat; lesser-known candidates like Darren Helton are very unlikely to top the primary absent major endorsements, funding, or polling evidence.”

Will Ché Ahn advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?

May 3 · Ends 2026-06-02

“California’s top-two primary strongly favors major, well-funded candidates with broad name recognition. Ché Ahn appears to be a minor/low-visibility contender, making advancement to the top two extremely unlikely.”

Will Saikat Chakrabarti receive the most votes in the CA-11 primary?

May 3 · Ends 2026-06-02

“CA-11 is heavily Democratic and establishment-backed candidates usually dominate. Chakrabarti has profile and fundraising potential, but beating the top vote-getter in a Pelosi-linked seat looks unlikely.”

Will Nicholas Finan advance from the CA-17 primary?

May 3 · Ends 2026-06-02

“CA-17 is a high-profile race where advancement typically requires major funding, endorsements, and name recognition. Nicholas Finan appears to be a minor candidate, making advancement from the primary very unlikely.”

Will Lindsey Horvath win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

May 3 · Ends 2026-06-02

“Horvath is a prominent county supervisor but not the incumbent mayor. Bass retains incumbency advantages unless weakened severely; absent strong evidence Horvath is the clear frontrunner, her win looks possible but unlikely.”

Will Chad Bianco advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?

May 3 · Ends 2026-06-02

“California’s top-two primary favors well-funded, high-name-ID candidates. Bianco has some conservative base appeal, but in a crowded field he looks unlikely to finish top two statewide.”

Will Brandon Jones advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?

May 3 · Ends 2026-06-02

“California’s top-two primary strongly favors well-funded, high-name-recognition candidates. Brandon Jones appears to have minimal statewide profile and little evidence of major campaign strength, making advancement extremely unlikely.”

Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

May 3 · Ends 2026-06-02

“Raman is a prominent councilmember but not a clear frontrunner citywide; incumbency/establishment advantages and fundraising hurdles make her path to outright victory relatively narrow.”

Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?

May 3 · Ends 2026-06-02

“Steyer has money and name recognition, but he lacks strong polling traction and faces better-known Democrats plus a competitive field for California’s top-two primary.”

Will Asaad Alnajjar win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

May 3 · Ends 2026-06-02

“Asaad Alnajjar appears to be a minor/low-visibility candidate with little evidence of broad citywide support, fundraising, or polling strength this close to the election, making a win highly unlikely.”

Will Scott Wiener receive the most votes in the CA-11 primary?

May 3 · Ends 2026-06-02

“Wiener is prominent in SF politics, but CA-11 is Pelosi’s old seat and likely to feature strong local/family-network contenders. In a crowded jungle primary, topping the field is hard without clear frontrunner status.”

Will a hurricane make landfall in the US by May 31?

May 3 · Ends 2026-05-31

“US hurricane landfalls before June are rare; Atlantic season starts June 1, and only a few May US hurricane landfalls exist historically. Early-season Gulf/Florida risk is nonzero but still low.”

Will both candidates advancing to the general election for Governor of California from the June 2, 2026 primary be affiliated with the Democratic Party?

May 3 · Ends 2026-06-02

“California’s top-two system plus the state’s strong Democratic lean make two Democrats likely. GOP vote is often fragmented and weaker statewide, though a single strong Republican could still take second.”

Will one Democratic Party candidate and one Republican Party candidate advance to the general election for Governor of California from the June 2, 2026 primary?

May 3 · Ends 2026-06-02

“California’s top-two primary usually advances a Democrat and a Republican for governor; Democrats are strong but vote-splitting severe enough to produce two Democrats is uncommon absent an unusually weak GOP field.”

Will Thunder Parley advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?

May 3 · Ends 2026-06-02

“California’s top-two primary strongly favors well-funded, high-name-recognition candidates. Thunder Parley appears to be a minor/low-visibility contender, making advancement extremely unlikely absent a major late surge.”

Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?

May 3 · Ends 2026-06-02

“California’s top-two primary strongly favors well-funded, high-name-ID candidates. Hilton has some media profile but appears far behind leading Democrats and better-known Republicans, making a top-two finish unlikely.”

Will Jingchao Xiong receive the most votes in the CA-11 primary?

May 3 · Ends 2026-06-02

“CA-11 is a Pelosi-linked, heavily Democratic seat where established local figures dominate. Jingchao Xiong appears low-profile with little sign of broad support, making a first-place finish very unlikely.”

Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

May 3 · Ends 2026-06-02

“Incumbent LA mayors often retain advantages in fundraising, name recognition, and coalition support. Bass faces real vulnerability from city dissatisfaction, but absent clear evidence of a stronger challenger, she remains a modest favorite.”

Will Sophia Brink advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?

May 3 · Ends 2026-06-02

“Sophia Brink appears to be a little-known candidate in a crowded top-two California gubernatorial primary; absent major polling, funding, or endorsements, advancing over prominent contenders is extremely unlikely.”

Will Gina Viola win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

May 3 · Ends 2026-06-02

“Incumbent Karen Bass has major advantages in fundraising, name recognition, and institutional support. Gina Viola has activist visibility but appears a clear underdog absent a major late-breaking shift.”

Will Eric Swalwell advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?

May 3 · Ends 2026-06-02

“California’s top-two primary favors statewide stars and major fundraisers. Swalwell has low statewide profile for governor and would likely trail better-known Democrats/Republicans, making a top-two finish unlikely.”

Will Rae Huang win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

May 3 · Ends 2026-06-02

“Rae Huang is not a prominent, widely recognized contender in the 2026 LA mayoral race. With the election very near, absent evidence of major polling strength or establishment support, her win odds appear very low.”

Will Gujarat Titans win the 2026 Indian Premier League?

May 3 · Ends 2026-05-31

“An IPL team’s title odds are usually spread across 10 teams; even strong sides rarely exceed ~15–20% pre-playoff. Gujarat Titans are plausible contenders but still more likely not to win than to win.”

Will Punjab Kings win the 2026 Indian Premier League?

May 3 · Ends 2026-05-31

“IPL titles are spread across 10 teams, implying ~10% base rate. Punjab Kings have no title history and are rarely among top favorites, so their championship chance is below average but still plausible.”

Will Royal Challengers Bengaluru win the 2026 Indian Premier League?

May 3 · Ends 2026-05-31

“IPL titles are hard to win in a 10-team league; even strong sides rarely exceed ~15-20% pre-playoff. RCB are competitive but not dominant enough to be favorites, so their title chance looks around 11%.”

Will Ian Calderon advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?

May 3 · Ends 2026-06-02

“California’s top-two primary strongly favors candidates with major statewide name recognition, funding, and broad coalitions. Ian Calderon appears to lack the polling and campaign prominence needed to finish in the top two.”

Will Rajasthan Royals win the 2026 Indian Premier League?

May 3 · Ends 2026-05-31

“IPL titles are spread across 10 teams; even strong sides rarely exceed ~15-20% pre-playoff. Rajasthan Royals are one contender among several, so their title chance is modest, around 8%.”

Will Destiny Scott Wells be the Democratic nominee for IN-07?

May 3 · Ends 2026-05-05

“With the primary effectively imminent and Destiny Scott Wells the established Democratic contender for IN-07, late upsets are unlikely absent unexpected filing/ballot issues.”

Will Mumbai Indians win the 2026 Indian Premier League?

May 3 · Ends 2026-05-31

“IPL titles are spread across 10 teams; even strong franchises rarely exceed ~15-20% pre-playoff title odds. Mumbai Indians are historically elite, but any single team remains an underdog to the field.”

Will Greg Hull win the 2026 New Mexico Governor Republican primary election?

May 3 · Ends 2026-06-02

“Hull, Rio Rancho’s mayor, appears a credible GOP contender with executive profile and fundraising potential, but statewide primaries can shift quickly and field dynamics remain uncertain.”

Will Delhi Capitals win the 2026 Indian Premier League?

May 3 · Ends 2026-05-31

“IPL titles are highly competitive with ~10 teams; a typical strong side is often in the 7–15% range. Delhi Capitals have talent but no dominant edge, so their title chance is below 1 in 10.”

Will Chennai Super Kings win the 2026 Indian Premier League?

May 3 · Ends 2026-05-31

“IPL titles are highly competitive; with 10 teams, a baseline is ~10%. CSK are historically strong, so slightly above baseline, but any single team remains unlikely to win outright.”

Will Kolkata Knight Riders win the 2026 Indian Premier League?

May 3 · Ends 2026-05-31

“An IPL team’s title odds are usually near 10% in a balanced field. KKR are a strong franchise but only one of several contenders, and winning requires both playoff qualification and knockout success.”

Will Craig Haggard be the Republican nominee for IN-04?

May 3 · Ends 2026-05-05

“Just 2 days before resolution, there’s no strong indication Haggard is the likely IN-04 GOP nominee; absent evidence of frontrunner status, a low probability is warranted.”

Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

May 3 · Ends 2026-06-02

“Spencer Pratt is a reality TV figure with no evident major campaign infrastructure or broad political base. In a large-city mayoral race, celebrity alone is very unlikely to overcome established candidates.”

Will Wayne Kinsel be the Republican nominee for OH-09?

May 3 · Ends 2026-05-05

“With only 2 days to resolution, a nominee is likely already effectively determined. Wayne Kinsel is not a prominent or widely reported frontrunner for OH-09 GOP nomination, so his chances appear very low.”

Will Anthony Campbell be the Republican nominee for OH-09?

May 3 · Ends 2026-05-05

“With resolution in 2 days, major candidate fields are usually settled. Anthony Campbell appears to be the GOP nominee for OH-09 absent a very late upset or disqualification.”

Will the Bodoland People’s Front (BPF) win the most seats in the 2026 Assam Legislative Assembly election?

May 3 · Ends 2026-05-20

“BPF is a regional party concentrated in Bodoland and has historically won only a small number of Assam seats; statewide leaders like BJP/Congress/AGP are far more likely to top seat counts in 2026.”

Will John Piper be the Republican nominee for IN-04?

May 3 · Ends 2026-05-05

“With resolution only 2 days away, major candidate fields are usually settled. John Piper appears to be the established Republican nominee for IN-04 absent a highly unlikely late reversal or disqualification.”

Will the Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPI(M)) win the most seats in the 2026 Assam Legislative Assembly election?

May 3 · Ends 2026-05-20

“CPI(M) is a minor force in Assam politics; the main contest is typically BJP-led alliance vs Congress-led opposition. CPI(M) winning the most seats would require an extreme upset, so odds are near the floor.”

Named storm forms before hurricane season?

May 3 · Ends 2026-05-31

“Early Atlantic named storms before June 1 have become fairly common in recent years, though not annual. With nearly a month left before season start, odds favor at least one subtropical/tropical named storm forming.”

Will Steve Lanier win the 2026 New Mexico Governor Republican primary election?

May 3 · Ends 2026-06-02

“Lanier appears to be a lesser-known contender in a GOP primary where name recognition, fundraising, and endorsements matter heavily; absent strong evidence he leads, he looks like a clear underdog.”

Will Tracy Dendy be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana?

May 3 · Ends 2026-05-16

“With less than two weeks to resolution, major nominees are usually clear. Tracy Dendy has little visible statewide profile or evidence of leading the Louisiana GOP Senate field, so her nomination appears very unlikely.”

Will Rayan Cherki break the Premier League assists record?

May 3 · Ends 2026-05-24

“Breaking the PL single-season assists record by May 24, 2026 would require an exceptional, near-historic output in very limited time. Even elite creators rarely reach it; Cherki doing so this season is highly unlikely.”

Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 31, 2026?

May 3 · Ends 2026-05-14

“Powell’s chair term runs to May 2026, and there’s been no strong sign of early removal. A replacement could be nominated near term-end, but being out by May 31 still looks unlikely this close to expiry.”

Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?

May 3 · Ends 2026-05-15

“Powell’s Fed Chair term runs to May 2026, and with only days left, removal/resignation before May 15 is possible but unlikely absent a sudden health, legal, or political shock.”

Will Jacob Frost be the Republican nominee for OH-09?

May 3 · Ends 2026-05-05

“With only 2 days until resolution, major candidate changes are unlikely. Frost appears to be the established GOP contender in OH-09, so barring a surprise filing/withdrawal or convention upset, he is very likely to be the nominee.”

Will George Hornedo be the Democratic nominee for IN-07?

May 3 · Ends 2026-05-05

“IN-07 is a safe Democratic seat with an entrenched incumbent, André Carson, who has long dominated the primary. A challenger like George Hornedo becoming the nominee by May 5, 2026 appears very unlikely absent major late-breaking news.”

Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the 2026 Assam Legislative Assembly election?

May 3 · Ends 2026-05-20

“AITC is a West Bengal-based party with minimal base in Assam; BJP and Congress/alliances dominate Assam politics. For AITC to win the most seats would require a major upset, so odds are very low.”

Will Josh Williams be the Republican nominee for OH-09?

May 3 · Ends 2026-05-05

“By May 3, 2026 the OH-09 GOP primary is effectively decided or imminent; Josh Williams is the leading/expected Republican nominee, leaving little time for reversal before resolution.”

Will Alea Nadeem be the Republican nominee for OH-09?

May 3 · Ends 2026-05-05

“With only 2 days to resolution, a non-leading candidate becoming the GOP nominee is very unlikely absent major late-breaking news. I have no evidence Nadeem is the frontrunner, so YES appears low-probability.”

Will Tim Ryan be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Ohio?

May 3 · Ends 2026-05-05

“By 2026-05-03, Ohio’s 2026 Senate Democratic nominee is effectively known and Tim Ryan is not the nominee; only tiny residual uncertainty remains before formal resolution.”

Will Allison Russo be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Ohio?

May 3 · Ends 2026-05-05

“With resolution just 2 days away, Russo appears to be the expected/likely Democratic nominee and there is little time left for a major reversal absent extraordinary late-breaking news.”

Will Derek Merrin be the Republican nominee for OH-09?

May 3 · Ends 2026-05-05

“With resolution only 2 days away, if Merrin is the expected/declared GOP nominee absent credible contrary reporting, odds are very high. Only late-breaking reversal, recount, or withdrawal would flip it.”

Will Madison Sheahan be the Republican nominee for OH-09?

May 3 · Ends 2026-05-05

“With resolution in 2 days, if Sheahan is still listed as the GOP candidate/only major Republican in OH-09, nomination is highly likely already settled. Small residual risk remains from late ballot/legal/reporting issues.”

Will Finland be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?

May 3 · Ends 2026-05-16

“Finland is a strong Eurovision country but jury-winner is a very specific, high-bar outcome. With many contenders and no dominant evidence Finland will top juries in 2026, the base rate for any one country is low.”

Will Cody Gakpo be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 English Premier League season?

May 3 · Ends 2026-05-27

“Top scorer is usually a central striker with elite volume. Gakpo is strong but not the likeliest focal scorer, and he faces heavy competition from Haaland, Salah, Isak and others with only weeks left.”

Will Fenerbahçe win the Süper Lig?

May 3 · Ends 2026-05-24

“With ~3 weeks left, title odds depend heavily on current table/fixtures. Fenerbahçe are a perennial contender but not the default favorite; absent evidence they lead, a roughly one-in-three chance is reasonable.”

Will Savannah Louie win Survivor Season 50?

May 3 · Ends 2026-05-20

“Any single named contestant in a large Survivor cast has low base-rate win odds. Without strong evidence Savannah is a standout frontrunner this late, a low single-digit chance is most calibrated.”

Will Manchester City finish in 3rd place in the 2025-26 English Premier League?

May 3 · Ends 2026-05-27

“City are usually more likely to finish 1st/2nd than exactly 3rd. Even if not champions, the EPL table has many plausible orders, making any single exact finishing position relatively low probability.”

Will Ryan Butcher die in "The Boys: Season 5"?

May 3 · Ends 2026-05-20

“Ryan is central to the series’ moral stakes and future. A death is plausible in a final season, but killing him risks undercutting key themes; redemption/survival feels somewhat more likely than death.”

Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026?

May 3 · Ends 2026-05-16

“Cyprus is a plausible finalist but not a frequent winner; Eurovision fields are large and competitive, so any single country’s win chance is low absent standout favorite evidence.”

Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026?

May 3 · Ends 2026-05-16

“Eurovision has many contenders and Lithuania is rarely among the top favorites. With ~35-40 entrants, any single country’s base win chance is low; Lithuania’s historical win rate is zero, so a win is possible but unlikely.”

Will Brighton finish in 3rd place in the 2025-26 English Premier League?

May 2 · Ends 2026-05-27

“Brighton are a strong club but 3rd in the EPL is usually claimed by richer, deeper squads. With only a few matches left by May 2, Brighton finishing exactly 3rd is a low-probability outcome.”

Will Juan Daniel Oviedo win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

May 1 · Ends 2026-05-31

“Oviedo is a known technocratic figure and former Bogotá mayoral candidate, but he has not led national polling or built a dominant coalition. Winning the first round in Colombia usually requires broad, top-tier support he likely lacks.”

Will Sergio Fajardo win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

May 1 · Ends 2026-05-31

“Fajardo has name recognition and a centrist lane, but Colombian first rounds are usually fragmented and current frontrunners appear stronger. Winning outright/placing first in round 1 looks unlikely.”

Will Juan Carlos Pinzón win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

May 1 · Ends 2026-05-31

“Pinzón is not among the leading 2026 Colombian presidential contenders and appears to have low visibility, weak polling, and no clear path to a first-round win this late in the race.”

Will Vicky Dávila win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

May 1 · Ends 2026-05-31

“Dávila is a prominent media figure and plausible contender, but winning Colombia’s first round outright is rare and usually requires broad, dominant coalition support she likely lacks this far out.”

Will Daniel Quintero win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

May 1 · Ends 2026-05-31

“Quintero is a visible left-leaning figure but not the clear national frontrunner. Colombia’s first round is fragmented, and leading the field usually requires broad coalition strength he appears unlikely to command by May 2026.”

Will David Luna Sánchez win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

May 1 · Ends 2026-05-31

“Luna is a known centrist figure but has not been among the strongest national frontrunners; winning the first round in Colombia usually requires leading a fragmented field, which currently looks unlikely for him.”

Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

May 1 · Ends 2026-05-31

“Cepeda is a prominent left-wing senator but not a leading 2026 presidential frontrunner. Colombia’s first round is fragmented, making an outright first-round win especially unlikely for any candidate, particularly a nonfavorite.”

Will Mauricio Cárdenas win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

May 1 · Ends 2026-05-31

“Cárdenas is a credible establishment figure but has limited mass electoral base and faces stronger, better-known contenders. Winning the first round outright or finishing first looks unlikely this close to the election.”

Will Juan Manuel Galán win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

May 1 · Ends 2026-05-31

“Galán is a known centrist but has not led national polling; Colombia’s fragmented field makes a first-round win hard, and frontrunners typically need broad momentum he appears unlikely to have by late May 2026.”

Will Claudia López win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

May 1 · Ends 2026-05-31

“Winning Colombia’s presidency outright in round 1 is rare and requires broad, dominant support. López is a notable figure but a first-round majority in a fragmented field is unlikely.”

Will Germán Vargas Lleras win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

May 1 · Ends 2026-05-31

“Winning Colombia’s presidency outright in round 1 is rare and requires broad, dominant support. Vargas Lleras is a known figure but appears far from overwhelming national consensus, making a first-round win unlikely.”

Will Roy Barreras win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

May 1 · Ends 2026-05-31

“Barreras is a known figure but has not been a leading national favorite for a first-round presidential win; Colombia’s field is fragmented, making an outright first-round victory by him very unlikely.”

Will Gustavo Bolívar win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

May 1 · Ends 2026-05-31

“Winning outright in Colombia’s 1st round requires >50%, historically rare. Bolívar is a visible left-wing contender but faces fragmented support, anti-incumbent drag on Petro-aligned candidates, and strong opposition rivals.”

Will Paloma Valencia win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

May 1 · Ends 2026-05-31

“Valencia is a prominent right-wing figure but not the clear national frontrunner. Colombia’s first round is fragmented, and winning outright or even finishing first appears unlikely absent strong late momentum.”

Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

May 1 · Ends 2026-05-31

“De la Espriella is a high-profile lawyer/commentator but not a leading national contender. With established politicians and coalitions dominating Colombia’s first round, his chance to finish first by May 31, 2026 appears very low.”

Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Colombia's election?

May 1 · Ends 2026-05-31

“Colombia usually requires a runoff; outright first-round wins are rare and need >50%. With fragmented party competition and no dominant consensus candidate evident by May 2026, a first-round victory looks unlikely.”

GTA VI released before June 2026?

May 1 · Ends 2026-05-31

“As of 2026-05-01, no confirmed release before June is evident. Major AAA launches rarely happen with <1 month clear runway if not already announced; delay risk remains high, so release by May 31 looks unlikely.”

Will Switzerland advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?

May 1 · Ends 2026-05-14

“As host country after winning Eurovision 2025, Switzerland is automatically qualified for the Grand Final and does not need to advance from Semi-Final 2.”

Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?

May 1 · Ends 2026-05-31

“Bayern are perennial contenders, but any single club’s chance in a 36-team Champions League is usually well below 20%. Even elite teams rarely exceed ~15–20% pre-final; with one month left, 12% is a calibrated estimate.”

Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?

May 1 · Ends 2026-05-31

“Atleti are a strong European side but UCL winners are usually among a small elite. With many top rivals and only one champion, any single club’s title odds this late are low; Atleti’s chance is around 4%.”

Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?

May 1 · Ends 2026-05-31

“Even elite clubs rarely win the Champions League in any given season. PSG are contenders, but the field is strong and only a few teams typically have double-digit title odds by May.”

Will Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League?

May 1 · Ends 2026-05-31

“Club Brugge are a clear longshot versus Europe’s elite. By May 1 they would need to have survived deep into the knockout rounds; absent evidence they’re among the final favorites, title chances are around 1%.”

Will Taylor Swift perform at the 2026 Todo Mundo no Rio music festival?

May 1 · Ends 2026-05-03

“Two days before resolution, a Taylor Swift appearance at a major festival would almost certainly be announced and heavily publicized. No such credible announcement is known, so a last-minute surprise set is very unlikely.”

Will Britney Spears perform at the 2026 Todo Mundo no Rio music festival?

May 1 · Ends 2026-05-03

“No credible reports or lineup confirmation by May 1, 2026. Major festival bookings are usually announced well before the event, and Spears has had limited recent live performance activity.”

Will U2 perform at the 2026 Todo Mundo no Rio music festival?

May 1 · Ends 2026-05-03

“As of May 1, 2026, no credible indication U2 is booked for Todo Mundo no Rio. Major festival headliners are usually announced well before the event; absent strong rumors, a late U2 addition seems unlikely.”

Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?

May 1 · Ends 2026-05-31

“Arsenal are an elite side but Champions League titles are rare and concentrated among a few clubs. Even top contenders usually have single-digit to low-teens title odds; with one month left, 8% is a calibrated estimate.”

Will Justin Bieber perform at the 2026 Todo Mundo no Rio music festival?

May 1 · Ends 2026-05-03

“No strong public indication Bieber is booked for Todo Mundo no Rio 2026, and major festival lineups are usually known by now. Possible but unlikely given limited evidence and many alternative headliner options.”

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?

May 1 · Ends 2026-05-31

“Kharg Island is core Iranian territory and a key oil terminal. Loss of control within 30 days would likely require major war, occupation, or regime collapse—possible but very unlikely absent strong evidence of imminent escalation.”

Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31?

May 1 · Ends 2026-05-31

“There is a full month left, and high-profile Iranian figures are often photographed at official/religious events. Mojtaba is reclusive, but being seen once in public by month-end is still more likely than not.”

Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026?

May 1 · Ends 2026-05-31

“Only 30 days remain. Anthropic’s major model releases are irregular, and there’s no confirmed public signal here. A surprise launch is plausible but less likely than not within this short window.”

Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by May 31, 2026?

May 1 · Ends 2026-05-31

“Mojtaba Khamenei is deeply embedded in Iran’s power structure and likely to stay amid succession dynamics. Publicly verifiable departure within just 30 days seems unlikely absent acute regime crisis or credible reports.”

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by May 31?

May 1 · Ends 2026-05-31

“With only 30 days left, taking Kostyantynivka would require a rapid operational breakthrough. Russia has pressured Donetsk fronts, but urban capture timelines are usually longer and defenses around this hub remain significant.”

Will Coldplay perform at the 2026 Todo Mundo no Rio music festival?

May 1 · Ends 2026-05-03

“With resolution only days away, major festival headliners are usually already announced. No strong indication here that Coldplay is booked, and such a large act would likely be widely known by now.”

Will Adele perform at the 2026 Todo Mundo no Rio music festival?

May 1 · Ends 2026-05-03

“With resolution only days away, major festival headliners are usually already announced. No strong public indication Adele is on the bill; her live appearances are rare and highly selective.”

Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by May 31?

May 1 · Ends 2026-05-31

“Machado remains a high-profile opposition figure facing strong regime restrictions and arrest risk. With only one month left, a successful physical entry into Venezuela by May 31 appears unlikely, though not impossible.”

Will Beyoncé perform at the 2026 Todo Mundo no Rio music festival?

May 1 · Ends 2026-05-03

“With resolution only days away, major festival headliners are usually publicly confirmed well in advance. No reliable indication here that Beyoncé is booked, so a surprise appearance seems unlikely.”

Will Rihanna perform at the 2026 Todo Mundo no Rio music festival?

May 1 · Ends 2026-05-03

“Two days before resolution, a Rihanna appearance at a major festival would likely be widely announced. With no strong public indication and her infrequent live performances, odds are low.”

Will Breel Embolo be the top goal scorer in the 2025-26 Ligue 1 season?

May 1 · Ends 2026-05-30

“Embolo is not a typical Ligue 1 Golden Boot favorite; top scorer usually comes from elite high-volume forwards. With season nearly over and stronger contenders likely ahead, his chance is extremely low.”

Will Jonas Wind be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 Bundesliga season?

May 1 · Ends 2026-05-28

“With only weeks left in the season, Jonas Wind is not among the leading Bundesliga scorers. Overtaking established top scorers this late is extremely unlikely, so his chance to finish outright top is near zero.”

Will Kyle Fraser win Survivor Season 50?

May 1 · Ends 2026-05-20

“Any named contestant in a large Survivor cast has low base-rate win odds. Even if Kyle Fraser is a plausible contender, with the season unresolved this close to finale his chance is still only a small fraction of the field.”

Will Mostafa Mohamed be the top goal scorer in the 2025-26 Ligue 1 season?

May 1 · Ends 2026-05-30

“Mostafa Mohamed has not been a leading Ligue 1 scorer and would need to outscore elite forwards over a full season. With one month left, this outcome is extremely unlikely.”

Will Nick Woltemade be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 Bundesliga season?

May 1 · Ends 2026-05-28

“Top-scorer markets are dominated by elite, established forwards. Woltemade would need a major breakout plus heavy minutes and penalties; with only weeks left in the season, that outcome is very unlikely.”

Will Roma finish in the top 4 in the 2025-26 Serie A season?

May 1 · Ends 2026-05-28

“With only a few matchdays left by May 1, top-4 races are usually mostly settled. Roma historically contend but are not a perennial lock; absent evidence they’re already in/near 4th, chances look modest.”

Will the Communist Party of India (CPI) win the most seats in the 2026 Assam Legislative Assembly election?

May 1 · Ends 2026-05-20

“CPI is a minor player in Assam politics; major seat competition is dominated by BJP, Congress, and regional allies. CPI winning the most seats would require an extreme upset, so probability is near the floor.”

Will the Indian National Congress (INC) win the most seats in the 2026 Assam Legislative Assembly election?

May 1 · Ends 2026-05-20

“BJP-led NDA has governed Assam since 2016 and remains structurally strong. INC is competitive via anti-incumbency and alliances, but winning the most seats outright in 2026 still looks less likely than not.”

Will Antoine Semenyo be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 English Premier League season?

May 1 · Ends 2026-05-27

“Semenyo is a solid EPL attacker but not among the league’s elite scorers. With stars like Haaland and Salah plus other top forwards competing, him finishing as sole top scorer this season is very unlikely.”

Will Sharif Street be the Democratic nominee for PA-03?

May 1 · Ends 2026-05-19

“PA-03 is a safely Democratic Philadelphia seat and Dwight Evans is the incumbent; Sharif Street is a state senator/party chair with no clear sign of running here. A Street nomination by May 19 looks very unlikely.”

Will Ryan Dotson be the Republican Nominee for KY-06?

May 1 · Ends 2026-05-19

“Dotson appears to be a lesser-known contender in a competitive KY-06 GOP primary, with no strong evidence he is the clear frontrunner this close to the May 19 vote.”

Will Danielle Bethell win the 2026 Oregon Governor Republican primary election?

May 1 · Ends 2026-05-19

“Bethell has been a prominent GOP contender with statewide visibility and establishment support; close to the primary, she appears more likely than any single rival, though primaries remain volatile.”

Will Jonathan McColumn be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia?

May 1 · Ends 2026-05-19

“McColumn appears to be a little-known or nonviable candidate with no evident statewide profile, fundraising, or institutional support; major-party Senate nominations almost never go to such candidates this close to the primary.”

Will Yolanda Flowers win the 2026 Alabama Governor Democratic primary election?

May 1 · Ends 2026-05-19

“Flowers was the 2022 nominee but lost badly statewide and lacks clear signs of dominant support or establishment backing for 2026. Incumbency/name ID help somewhat, but winning the primary still looks unlikely.”

Will Tim Skelton be the Republican nominee for Senate in Oregon?

May 1 · Ends 2026-05-19

“With the primary only weeks away, major-party nominees are usually clear from filings, endorsements, and coverage. Tim Skelton appears low-profile with little visible momentum, so his nomination looks unlikely.”

Will Vinson Watkins be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia?

May 1 · Ends 2026-05-19

“With the primary imminent, Watkins appears to be a minor/obscure candidate with little visible support versus better-known Georgia Republicans. Upsets from that position are rare, so his nomination odds look very low.”

Will Charles Booker be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kentucky?

May 1 · Ends 2026-05-19

“Booker is the best-known Kentucky Democrat for Senate, previously won the 2022 nomination, and no stronger rival is evident this close to the 2026 primary. Late upsets remain possible but look unlikely.”

Will Jason Cass be the Democratic Nominee for PA-10?

May 1 · Ends 2026-05-19

“With the primary very near, absent evidence Cass is the clear frontrunner, any named candidate in a contested House primary is usually below 50%. I assign a modest chance he wins the Democratic nomination.”

Will Rick Temple be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia?

May 1 · Ends 2026-05-19

“With the primary just weeks away, Temple appears to be a minor candidate without major polling, fundraising, or establishment support. Such candidates rarely win statewide GOP nominations absent a major late-breaking shock.”

Will Jim Risch be the Republican nominee for Senate in Idaho?

May 1 · Ends 2026-05-19

“Risch is the incumbent Idaho senator, a strong favorite in a deep-red state, and there’s no major sign of a serious GOP primary threat this close to the May 19, 2026 primary.”

Will United Kingdom be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?

May 1 · Ends 2026-05-16

“The UK is a large, capable broadcaster but rarely tops Eurovision juries. With no song/field certainty yet and many strong jury-friendly rivals likely, UK as 2026 jury winner is a low-probability outcome.”

Will Elon Musk post 1040-1079 tweets in April 2026?

May 1 · Ends 2026-05-01✗ WrongBrier: 0.846

“1040-1079 tweets in April implies ~34.7-36.0/day, an extremely high sustained rate. Musk can tweet heavily, but landing in this narrow 40-tweet band over a full month is unlikely.”

Will Elon Musk post 1440-1479 tweets in April 2026?

May 1 · Ends 2026-05-01✓ CorrectBrier: 0.004

“1440-1479 tweets implies ~48-49/day all month. Musk’s posting is highly variable and often lower; hitting such a narrow, very high band is unlikely absent clear evidence of an extreme posting spree.”

Will Elon Musk post 1520-1559 tweets in April 2026?

May 1 · Ends 2026-05-01✓ CorrectBrier: 0.004

“1520-1559 tweets in April implies ~51-52/day, an extremely high sustained rate. Musk can tweet heavily, but landing in this narrow 40-tweet band over a month is unlikely versus lower or much higher totals.”

Will the Bitcoin realized volatility index dip to 40 by April 30?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-01✓ CorrectBrier: 0.078

“With only one day left, this hinges on whether BTC realized vol has already touched 40. Late-April BTC often trades in moderate ranges, and realized vol can dip quickly after calm periods, so a touch by Apr 30 is more likely than not.”

Will Elon Musk post 1200-1239 tweets in April 2026?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-01✓ CorrectBrier: 0.004

“1200-1239 tweets in a 30-day month implies ~40/day. Musk can be prolific, but sustaining that exact high band for a full month is uncommon, and only one narrow 40-tweet interval resolves YES.”

Will Meta reach $730 in April?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-01

“Only one trading day remains before May 1. Hitting $730 in April now requires a very near-term move unless already close; such last-day threshold hits are relatively unlikely without strong momentum or news.”

Will Elon Musk post 1920-1999 tweets in April 2026?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-01✓ CorrectBrier: 0.006

“1920-1999 tweets in 30 days implies ~64-67/day, an extremely high sustained pace even for Musk. With only one day left in April, unless he is already near that range, hitting it is unlikely.”

Will Opendoor dip to $2 in April?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-01

“With only one day left in April, hitting exactly or below $2 requires a sharp drop. Such single-day moves are possible for volatile small caps, but absent evidence of a current near-$2 price or major catalyst, odds look low.”

Will NVIDIA dip to $160 in April?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-01

“By Apr 30, a dip to $160 would require a very large drawdown from typical 2026 NVDA levels. Such one-month downside moves are possible but uncommon absent major shock; with only one day left in April, odds are low.”

Will Microsoft dip to $330 in April?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-01

“With only one day left in April, MSFT would need to touch $330 intraday by May 1 UTC. Unless it is already very near that level or highly volatile, a fresh drop to $330 in the final session is relatively unlikely.”

Will Apple reach $308 in April?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-01

“With only one trading day left in April, hitting $308 requires AAPL to already be very near that level or make an unusually large move. Such one-day threshold hits are possible but not likely absent strong momentum/news.”

Will Google reach $355 in April?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-01

“With only one trading day left in April, hitting $355 requires a large near-term move unless already very close. Such one-day threshold hits are uncommon absent major news, so odds look low.”

Will NVIDIA reach $212 in April?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-01

“On Apr 30, the question is whether NVDA hits $212 at any point in April. With only one trading day left, this is near-resolved; if it hasn’t happened yet odds are low, but market context suggests it likely already traded through $212 earlier in the month.”

Will Apple dip to $228 in April?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-01

“On Apr 30, only one trading day remains, but AAPL often moves several percent intraday. If it has traded near or below $228 already this month, resolution is likely already YES; absent contrary price context, YES is highly likely.”

Will Abel Ruiz be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 La Liga season?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-30

“Abel Ruiz is not among La Liga’s elite scorers and would need to outscore stars/regular penalty takers over a full season. With only one month left, his chance to finish top scorer is extremely low.”

Will Palantir reach $195 in April?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-01

“Only one trading day remains in April. Hitting $195 would likely require a very large one-day move unless PLTR is already near that level; such jumps are uncommon for a mega-cap absent major news.”

Will Palantir dip to $114 in April?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-01

“With only one day left in April, hitting $114 requires a sharp downside move unless PLTR is already near that level. Such one-day threshold dips are possible but relatively unlikely absent major news or broad market stress.”

Will Marseille finish in the top 4 of the Ligue 1 2025–26 standings?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-30

“With only about a month left, Marseille are likely in or near the top 4. As a strong Ligue 1 side, they have a favorable base rate; only a late collapse or rivals’ surge would likely push them out.”

Will Abdoulaye Toure be the top goal scorer in the 2025-26 Ligue 1 season?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-30

“Toure is primarily a midfielder/defensive player, not a usual Golden Boot contender. With one month left, established Ligue 1 strikers are overwhelmingly more likely to finish top scorer.”

Will Antoine Griezmann be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 La Liga season?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-30

“With only about a month left in the season, Griezmann is very unlikely to lead La Liga scoring. He is not typically the primary favorite versus elite strikers and would need a late surge plus others to stall.”

Will Jonathan Burkardt be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 Bundesliga season?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-28

“Burkardt is a good striker but Bundesliga top scorer usually requires elite output and/or a dominant attack. With stars like Kane and other high-volume scorers competing, Burkardt leading the league by season end is unlikely.”

Will Roberto Fernandez be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 La Liga season?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-30

“Roberto Fernández is not among the established elite La Liga scorers; with one month left, top-scorer races are usually led by proven stars. A surprise win is possible but very unlikely.”

Will AC Milan finish in the top 4 in the 2025-26 Serie A season?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-28

“With only a few matchdays left, Milan are a strong top-4 contender based on typical club strength, squad quality, and historical competitiveness, though Serie A’s race is often tight and injuries/form swings still matter.”

Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 La Liga season?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-30

“With only about a month left, Oyarzabal is not among the likeliest leaders; top-scorer races are usually dominated by elite strikers with larger goal totals. Him finishing first from here would be a major upset.”

Will Atletico Madrid finish in the top 4 of the La Liga 2025–26 standings?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-30

“Atletico are historically a top-4 La Liga side and, by late April, are very likely already in or near the top 4. With only a few matches left, established squad quality and consistency make a drop-out unlikely.”

Will Jude Bellingham be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 La Liga season?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-30

“Bellingham is a midfielder, not a primary striker or penalty taker. With forwards like Mbappé, Lewandowski, and others more likely to lead scoring, his chance to finish top is very low.”

Will Gorka Guruzeta be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 La Liga season?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-30

“With only about a month left, Guruzeta is not among the leading scorers and would need an unlikely late surge plus leaders stalling. Top-scorer races this late rarely flip to a non-leader.”

Will Ayoze Perez be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 La Liga season?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-30

“Top scorer is usually won by elite forwards at top clubs. Ayoze Perez is a capable attacker but historically not a prolific league-leading scorer, and with little season context suggesting he leads, his chances are very low.”

Will Jamal Musiala be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 Bundesliga season?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-28

“Musiala is an elite attacker but not a typical volume striker. With one month left, established center-forwards are more likely to finish top, and injuries/rotation further reduce his chances.”

Will Karim Adeyemi be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 Bundesliga season?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-28

“Adeyemi is a strong attacker but not a consistent elite-volume scorer, and Bundesliga top scorer is usually won by more prolific central forwards. With only a few matchdays left, his chances are very low.”

Will Michy Batshuayi be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 Bundesliga season?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-28

“Batshuayi is not a leading Bundesliga scorer and is very unlikely to finish above elite, higher-minute forwards. With the season nearly complete, his chance to end top scorer is effectively negligible.”

Will Ante Budimir be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 La Liga season?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-30

“Budimir is a strong scorer but usually trails elite La Liga forwards. With stars at bigger clubs and only a month left in the season, him finishing outright top scorer is very unlikely.”

Will Cristhian Stuani be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 La Liga season?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-30

“Stuani is 39 and not a regular elite-volume scorer in La Liga; top scorer usually comes from younger star forwards at bigger clubs. With one month left, his chance to lead the season is extremely low.”

Will Raphinha be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 La Liga season?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-30

“With only a month left, Raphinha is not a typical elite-volume striker and would need to lead all scorers over proven central forwards. Top-scorer races this late are rarely overturned by wide attackers.”

Will Michael Olise be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-30

“Olise is an elite creator but not a primary striker/penalty focal point. With only a few UCL matches left, he’d need to lead all scorers over specialist forwards, which is very unlikely.”

Will Julian Alvarez be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 La Liga season?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-30

“With only about a month left, Álvarez would need to lead all La Liga scorers. Top-scorer races are usually dominated by established elite forwards, and overturning a late-season gap is uncommon.”

Will Luis Diaz be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-30

“By late April the UCL top scorer race is usually nearly settled. Luis Diaz is not a typical favorite for outright top scorer and would need to lead or be very close already; absent evidence of that, chances are extremely low.”

Will Michael Olise be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 Bundesliga season?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-28

“Olise is primarily a winger/creator, not a central striker. With established Bundesliga scorers and only a few matches left by 2026-04-30, his chance to finish outright top scorer is very low.”

Will Vinicius Junior be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 La Liga season?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-30

“Top-scorer markets are concentrated among elite strikers/penalty takers. Vinicius is world-class but more often a creator/winger, and competition from Mbappe, Lewandowski, Sorloth, etc. makes him a clear long shot.”

Will Daniel Raba be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 La Liga season?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-30

“Raba is not among La Liga’s elite scorers and would need to outscore stars like Mbappé/Lewandowski/Sorloth over a full season. With one month left, this outcome is extremely unlikely.”

Will Cyle Larin be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 La Liga season?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-30

“Larin is not among La Liga’s elite scorers and would need to outscore stars/regular penalty takers at bigger clubs. With one month left, this outcome is extremely unlikely unless he already leads, which is improbable.”

Will Ousmane Dembele be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-30

“Top UCL scorer is a crowded market and Dembele is not a typical favorite versus elite strikers/penalty takers. With only about a month left, he’d need to be leading or very close; absent that, chances are low.”

Will Inaki Williams be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 La Liga season?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-30

“With one month left, Williams is not a typical Pichichi contender and would need to outscore elite forwards like Mbappe/Lewandowski/Sorloth. Such a late surge to finish top is extremely unlikely.”

Will Victor Boniface be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 Bundesliga season?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-28

“With only weeks left in the 2025–26 Bundesliga season, Boniface would need to be leading or very close already. Top-scorer races are usually dominated by elite-volume forwards; absent evidence he leads, his chance is very low.”

Will Julian Alvarez be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-30

“By late April the UCL top-scorer race is usually nearly settled. Alvarez would need to already be leading or within 1-2 goals with matches left; absent evidence of that, any specific player’s chance is low.”

Will Luis Diaz be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 Bundesliga season?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-28

“Luis Diaz is not a Bundesliga player in the 2025–26 season context, making him an extreme long shot to finish as the league’s top scorer by resolution.”

Will Alexander Sorloth be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-30

“Sorloth is not among the usual elite UCL scoring favorites, and by late April the top-scorer race is typically led by established stars on deep-running clubs. Him finishing first from here is very unlikely.”

Will Vedat Muriqi be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 La Liga season?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-30

“Muriqi is a solid scorer but not an elite La Liga Golden Boot favorite. With stars at bigger clubs and only a month left in the season, his chance of finishing top scorer is extremely low.”

Will Liverpool finish in 3rd place in the 2025-26 English Premier League?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-27

“With only a few matches left, exact 3rd is a narrow target. Liverpool are a strong top-4 side, but finishing specifically 3rd depends on current table position, points gap, and tiebreaks, making it materially less likely than not.”

Will Lautaro Martinez be the top goal scorer in the 2025-26 Serie A season?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-28

“With only ~1 month left, Lautaro would need to be leading or within 1-2 goals of the top scorer. Serie A capocannoniere races are competitive and single-player win chances are usually modest; absent evidence he leads, YES is unlikely.”

Will Serhou Guirassy be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 Bundesliga season?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-28

“With only a few matchdays left, Guirassy would need to be leading or very close. Bundesliga top scorer is highly competitive and usually favors a small set of elite forwards; any single player’s chance this late is still modest.”

Will Ermedin Demirovic be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 Bundesliga season?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-28

“Demirovic is a capable scorer but Bundesliga top-scorer usually requires elite output over a full season. With stronger, more established rivals and little evidence he leads this race by late April, his chances are very low.”

Will Dodi Lukebakio be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 La Liga season?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-30

“Lukebakio is not among the usual La Liga Golden Boot favorites; with only a month left, established elite scorers are far more likely to finish top. A solo top-scorer finish for him would be a major surprise.”

Will Aston Villa finish in 3rd place in the 2025-26 English Premier League?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-27

“With only a few matches left, Villa would need to be exactly 3rd at season end. Big-six clubs usually dominate top-3 spots, and Villa finishing specifically 3rd is a low-probability outcome.”

Will Alexander Sorloth be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 La Liga season?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-30

“With only about a month left in the season, Sorloth would need to be leading or within striking distance. La Liga top scorer is usually dominated by elite forwards; absent evidence he’s atop the chart, his chances are very low.”

Will Marcus Rashford be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 La Liga season?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-30

“By late April, La Liga’s top-scorer race is usually clear. Rashford is not a typical La Liga Golden Boot favorite and would need to lead all scorers by season end, which is extremely unlikely.”

Will Jamal Musiala be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-30

“Musiala is elite but not a primary striker/penalty taker, and UCL top scorer usually comes from central forwards on deep runs. With only ~1 month left in the season, the field and current leaders make this a long shot.”

Will Bukayo Saka be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-30

“Top UCL scorer is usually a central striker on a deep-run team. Saka is elite but not a pure 9, shares goals, and Arsenal’s path plus competition from Haaland/Mbappe/Kane-type scorers makes him a long shot.”

Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 La Liga season?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-30

“Mbappe is an elite scorer on a dominant attack and likely among current leaders with only ~1 month left. But injuries, rotation, penalties, and close rivals still make the title far from certain.”

Will Dani Olmo be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 La Liga season?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-30

“Olmo is primarily an attacking midfielder, not a high-volume striker or regular penalty taker. With one month left, established forwards are far likelier to finish as La Liga top scorer unless Olmo is already leading by a lot.”

Will Javi Puado be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 La Liga season?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-30

“Puado is not among La Liga’s elite-volume scorers and would need to outscore stars and primary penalty takers across top clubs. With one month left, this outcome is extremely unlikely.”

Will Deniz Undav be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 Bundesliga season?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-28

“Top-scorer markets are dominated by elite forwards; Undav is a strong striker but not the likeliest Bundesliga golden boot winner this late in the season. Chance remains only if he is already near the lead.”

Will Manchester United finish in 3rd place in the 2025-26 English Premier League?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-27

“By late April, exact 3rd-place outcomes are narrow and usually involve only a few contenders. Man United would need to be specifically sitting near 3rd; absent evidence of that, any one team’s chance is low, around mid-single digits.”

Will Igor Thiago be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 English Premier League season?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-27

“Very unlikely this late in the season. Thiago is not among the established EPL Golden Boot favorites, and overtaking leading scorers by season end would require an improbable surge plus others stalling.”

Will Burnley finish in last place in the 2025-26 English Premier League?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-27

“Finishing exactly 20th is a narrow outcome. Even if Burnley are in the relegation mix, several clubs typically contend for bottom spot, making any one team’s chance modest.”

Will Broja Iglesias be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 La Liga season?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-30

“Very unlikely: Iglesias is not among the usual La Liga Golden Boot favorites, and with the season nearly over he would need to be leading or close. Established elite scorers make this a long shot.”

Will Hugo Duro be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 La Liga season?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-30

“With one month left, Duro is not among the most likely Pichichi leaders; established elite scorers at bigger clubs are far more probable to finish top. A late surge to sole top scorer is possible but very unlikely.”

Will Morgan Rogers be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 English Premier League season?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-27

“With only weeks left, Rogers is not among the leading EPL scorers. Overtaking established leaders this late is extremely unlikely, and ties for top scorer are also improbable from his current position.”

Will Yoane Wissa be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 English Premier League season?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-27

“With only a few matches left, Wissa would need to lead or overtake elite scorers like Haaland/Salah/Isak. As a strong but less prolific forward, his chance to finish outright top scorer is extremely low.”

Will Kylian Mbappe be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-30

“Mbappe is always a strong contender, but UCL top scorer is highly volatile, depends on team progression, penalties, injuries, and rivals like Haaland/Kane/Lewandowski. With one month left, any single-player chance remains well below 50%.”

Will Harry Kane be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-30

“By late April only a few UCL matches remain. Kane is elite and on a strong Bayern side, but top-scorer races are volatile and usually favor current leaders or players still alive with more matches.”

Will Iago Aspas be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 La Liga season?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-30

“Aspas would need to outscore younger elite forwards over a full season at age 38, which is extremely unlikely. Even if still productive, leading La Liga outright is a long-shot outcome.”

Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-30

“Top UCL scorer is a low-base-rate outcome for any one player. By late April, leaders usually have a clear edge; Kvaratskhelia is elite but not the likeliest volume finisher versus specialist scorers on deep runs.”

Will Cole Palmer be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 English Premier League season?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-27

“Top scorer is a crowded market; even elite forwards rarely exceed ~15–20% preseason odds. Palmer is excellent but not a pure central striker and faces strong rivals like Haaland/Isak/Salah-type contenders.”

Will Joaquin Panichelli be the top goal scorer in the 2025-26 Ligue 1 season?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-30

“Panichelli is not an established Ligue 1 elite scorer and would need to outscore stars and regular starters over a full season. With one month left, absent evidence he leads, his chance is extremely low.”

Will Robert Lewandowski be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 La Liga season?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-30

“With only about a month left, Lewandowski would need to be leading or very close. At age 37 in 2025–26, sustained top-scorer pace is less likely than younger rivals like Mbappé or other elite forwards.”

Will Desire Doue be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-30

“With the 2025/26 UCL top-scorer race nearly complete by late April, Doue would need to be leading or very close. He is not among the most likely leaders versus established elite scorers, so his chance is extremely low.”

Will Georges Mikautadze be the top goal scorer in the 2025-26 Ligue 1 season?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-30

“With only about a month left, Mikautadze would need to be leading or within striking distance. Ligue 1 top scorer is usually dominated by elite forwards; absent evidence he’s atop the chart, chances are very low.”

Will Matias Goncalo Ramos be the top goal scorer in the 2025-26 Ligue 1 season?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-30

“Highly unlikely: he is not a widely recognized Ligue 1 elite scorer/favorite, and with the season nearly complete, established stars are far more likely to finish top.”

Will Ferran Torres be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 La Liga season?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-30

“With one month left, Torres is not the clear scoring leader and would need to outscore elite rivals like Mbappé/Lewandowski/Sørloth quickly. Top-scorer races this late rarely flip to a non-leader.”

Will Bradley Barcola be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-30

“By late April the UCL top-scorer race is usually nearly settled. Barcola is talented but not a primary penalty taker/central striker, making him a long shot to finish above elite scorers this season.”

Will PSG win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-30

“PSG have dominated Ligue 1 for years, retain the league’s deepest squad and biggest budget, and with only about a month left they’re very likely to finish top unless an unusual late collapse occurs.”

Will Lamine Yamal be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 La Liga season?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-30

“Top scorer with one month left is usually among established elite forwards. Yamal is exceptional but primarily a winger/creator, and likely trails central strikers like Mbappe/Lewandowski/Sorloth in goals.”

Will Trabzonspor win the Süper Lig?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-24

“With only a few matchdays left, Trabzonspor are not among the main title favorites; Galatasaray/Fenerbahçe typically dominate and overturning a late deficit is unlikely.”

Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 Assam Legislative Assembly election?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-20

“BJP is the incumbent dominant force in Assam, won 2021 strongly, and opposition remains fragmented despite anti-incumbency. Regional alliances could narrow margins, but BJP is still likeliest to emerge with the most seats.”

Will Billy Butcher die in "The Boys: Season 5"?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-20

“Final season stakes are high, Butcher is terminally ill in the story, and his arc strongly points toward a sacrificial or climactic death. Main uncertainty is a subversive ending where he survives.”

Will Alex Baena be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 La Liga season?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-30

“With one month left, Baena is not among the leading scorers and is primarily a creator/winger, while elite strikers at bigger clubs usually win La Liga’s scoring title. A late surge to finish outright top is extremely unlikely.”

Will Oihan Sancet be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 La Liga season?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-30

“Top scorer is usually won by elite forwards from Real/Barca/Atleti. Sancet is a strong attacking midfielder, but leading all La Liga scorers over established strikers remains a long shot this late in the season.”

Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-30

“With about a month left, title odds hinge on current table and remaining fixtures. Barcelona are a top contender but La Liga titles are concentrated among a few clubs; absent clear lead evidence, they look somewhat less likely than not.”

Will Lens win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-30

“Lens are not a typical Ligue 1 title winner and usually trail PSG/other top contenders in squad depth and budget. With the season nearly over by Apr 30, a Lens title would be a major upset, so odds are very low.”

Will Frenchie die in "The Boys: Season 5"?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-20

“Final season raises mortality for core cast, and Frenchie is a vulnerable supporting lead with a tragic arc. Still, his importance and fan attachment keep survival plausible, so only a modest lean to YES.”

Will Kimiko Miyashiro die in "The Boys: Season 5"?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-20

“Kimiko is a core fan-favorite with strong survival history and regenerative powers. Final seasons can kill major characters, but her arc feels more likely to conclude with sacrifice-avoidance or survival than death.”

Will Robert Neuman win the 2026 Oregon Governor Republican primary election?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-19

“Neuman appears to be a minor/less prominent contender with limited statewide profile, fundraising, and endorsements versus better-known GOP rivals. Upset path exists, but base rate for such candidates winning a gubernatorial primary is low.”

Will Ken McFeeters win the 2026 Alabama Governor Republican primary election?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-19

“McFeeters appears to be a little-known candidate with minimal statewide profile, fundraising, or endorsements, while better-known Republicans dominate Alabama gubernatorial politics. Upsets happen, but his path looks very narrow.”

Will Derrick Jackson win the 2026 Georgia Governor Democratic primary election?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-19

“Jackson is a declared candidate but lacks the statewide profile, fundraising, and institutional support usually needed to win a Georgia gubernatorial primary; absent major shifts, he looks like a clear underdog.”

Will Joe Johnson be the Republican nominee for Senate in Oregon?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-19

“Joe Johnson appears to be a little-known candidate with limited statewide profile, fundraising, and institutional support; Oregon GOP primaries usually favor better-known or better-funded contenders.”

Will Ken Yasger win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary election?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-19

“Ken Yasger appears to be a little-known/non-establishment candidate with no clear signs of major funding, endorsements, polling strength, or statewide name recognition this close to the primary.”

Will Mike Faris be the Republican nominee for Senate in Kentucky?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-19

“Faris appears to be a minor/low-visibility contender with little evidence of broad support, fundraising, or establishment backing this late in the race, making a nomination upset unlikely.”

Will Soldier Boy die in "The Boys: Season 5"?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-20

“Final seasons often kill major volatile antagonists. Soldier Boy is dangerous, narratively expendable, and his arc feels endgame-relevant, though his popularity and utility as a wildcard keep death far from certain.”

Will Reagan Box be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-19

“Reagan Box appears to be a little-known candidate with low statewide profile, fundraising, and institutional support. In a Georgia GOP Senate primary, such candidates rarely win absent major shocks.”

Will Kyle Sweetser be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Alabama?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-19

“Sweetser appears to be a minor/low-visibility candidate with limited statewide profile, fundraising, and institutional backing. In a Senate primary, such candidates rarely win absent major shocks.”

Will Olujimi Brown win the 2026 Georgia Governor Democratic primary election?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-19

“Brown appears to be a little-known candidate with low name recognition, fundraising, and institutional support versus better-known Democrats, making a primary win highly unlikely.”

Will Jeff Merkley be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oregon?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-19

“Merkley is the incumbent Democratic senator in deep-blue Oregon and, absent a major scandal or strong primary challenger, incumbents almost always win renomination. Very little time remains before the May 19 primary.”

Will Christina Loren Clement be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-19

“Clement appears to be a little-known candidate with low visibility, fundraising, and institutional support versus better-known Georgia Republicans, making a primary win highly unlikely.”

Will Nate Morris be the Republican nominee for Senate in Kentucky?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-19

“Morris has major financial resources and outsider appeal in a GOP primary. With no clearly dominant alternative and Trump-aligned politics resonating in Kentucky, he appears more likely than not to win, though the field remains fluid.”

Will Rick Jackson win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary election?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-19

“Rick Jackson appears to be a minor/low-visibility candidate with little evidence of broad statewide support, fundraising, endorsements, or polling strength this close to the primary.”

Will Chris Dudley win the 2026 Oregon Governor Republican primary election?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-19

“Dudley has name recognition from his 2010 run, but no clear evidence he is the GOP frontrunner in 2026. Primaries favor active, current candidates with fundraising and endorsements; absent strong signs, his chances look modest.”

Will Chael Sonnen win the 2026 Oregon Governor Republican primary election?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-19

“Sonnen has name recognition but limited political experience and unclear campaign strength. GOP primaries often favor established political networks; absent strong polling or endorsements, he looks like a clear underdog.”

Will Wende Kennedy be the Republican nominee for Senate in Kentucky?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-19

“Kennedy appears to be a minor/low-visibility contender. Kentucky GOP Senate nominations usually go to well-known, well-funded candidates, making her path to the nomination very unlikely this close to the primary.”

Will Steve Marshall be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-19

“Marshall is a prominent statewide Republican with AG name recognition and establishment support, but Alabama primaries can be volatile and a runoff or stronger challenger could still derail him.”

Will Russell McAlmond be the Republican nominee for Senate in Oregon?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-19

“McAlmond appears to be a little-known candidate with low visibility and limited signs of broad GOP support. In a statewide primary, nominees are usually better-funded or better-known contenders.”

Will Daniel Cameron be the Republican nominee for Senate in Kentucky?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-19

“Cameron has statewide name recognition, prior GOP support, and no clearly stronger rival appears dominant. Primaries can shift late, but he looks more likely than not to secure the Kentucky GOP Senate nomination.”

Will Christoph La'Flare Chapman be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-19

“Chapman appears to be a fringe/unknown candidate with little visible support, fundraising, or establishment backing. In statewide GOP primaries, such candidates almost never win absent major shocks.”

Will Barry Moore be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-19

“Moore is a credible conservative with a House base, but Tuberville’s seat likely attracts stronger statewide Republicans with better fundraising/name ID. Moore appears more like a secondary contender than the clear favorite.”

Will Kyle Duyck win the 2026 Oregon Governor Republican primary election?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-19

“Duyck appears to be a minor/less-established contender in a GOP primary likely dominated by better-known or better-funded candidates. With limited evidence of frontrunner status, his win odds look low but not impossible.”

Will Jo Rae Perkins be the Republican nominee for Senate in Oregon?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-19

“Perkins has strong name recognition from prior statewide GOP runs and Oregon Republicans often renominate familiar conservatives. Unless a better-funded challenger emerges late, she looks like the clear favorite.”

Will Andy Barr be the Republican nominee for Senate in Kentucky?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-19

“Barr is a well-known congressman with establishment support and fundraising strength. In a GOP primary, that makes him a clear favorite, though not a lock given possible late shifts or stronger rivals.”

Will Mike Collins be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-19

“Collins is a plausible contender but not the clear favorite. Georgia GOP primaries can be crowded, and stronger or better-known Republicans could enter, making his path to the nomination relatively unlikely.”

Will Mike Thurmond win the 2026 Georgia Governor Democratic primary election?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-19

“Thurmond is a known Georgia Democrat, but as of late April 2026 he lacks clear frontrunner status. Democratic primaries often favor better-funded or higher-profile candidates; absent strong evidence of momentum, his win odds look modest.”

Will Denmark be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-16

“Denmark has rarely finished top 3 in recent decades and Eurovision top spots are highly competitive. Without strong evidence of an exceptional 2026 entry, a top-3 finish is possible but unlikely.”

Will Tracie Burke be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Louisiana?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-16

“Burke appears to be a minor/low-visibility contender. In statewide Senate nominations, better-known or better-funded Democrats usually prevail absent strong evidence of momentum.”

Will Germany be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-16

“Germany is a Big Five auto-qualifier but has a weak recent Eurovision top-10 record. Without strong evidence of an exceptional 2026 entry, top 10 is possible but clearly less likely than not.”

Will Kathy Seiden be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-16

“Kathy Seiden appears to be a little-known or non-viable contender, with no evident major support, fundraising, or visibility. Republican Senate nominations usually go to prominent, well-backed candidates, making her chances very low.”

Will Xan John be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-16

“Xan John appears to be a minor/low-visibility candidate with little evidence of broad support, fundraising, or endorsements. In a statewide GOP Senate race, such candidates rarely win the nomination absent major shocks.”

Will Lithuania be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-16

“Lithuania is a mid-tier Eurovision performer: occasional top-10s but more often outside. With 26 finalists and many stronger contenders, a top-10 finish is plausible but clearly below even odds.”

Will Greece be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-16

“Top-5 Eurovision finishes are rare and volatile. Greece has occasional strong results but is not a consistent recent top-5 contender; without standout song/performance evidence, chances look below 1 in 5.”

Will Chris Holder be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-16

“Chris Holder appears to be a minor/low-visibility candidate with little evidence of broad support, fundraising, or endorsements this close to the 2026 Louisiana GOP Senate nomination.”

Will Moldova be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-16

“Moldova often overperforms at Eurovision, but top-10 requires a strong song/staging and favorable draw. With no clear evidence of a standout 2026 entry here, base rate for a smaller country making top 10 is well below 50%.”

Will Greece be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-16

“Greece is a plausible qualifier and occasional top-10 finisher, but not a consistent one. Without strong evidence of a standout 2026 entry, base rates and competition make top 10 somewhat less likely than not.”

Will Czechia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-16

“Czechia has occasional strong Eurovision results but is not a consistent top-10 finisher. With many competitive entries and uncertainty about song/staging, top 10 is possible but clearly below even odds.”

Will Israel be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-16

“Israel is a strong Eurovision country and can attract televote support, but a top-5 finish is hard in a crowded field. Base rate for any one country is low; absent standout song/performance evidence, below one-third seems reasonable.”

Will Samuel “Sammy” Wyatt be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-16

“Wyatt appears to be a minor or little-known contender with no evident statewide frontrunner status. Close to resolution, major-party nominations usually go to better-funded, higher-profile candidates.”

Will Italy be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-16

“Italy is one of Eurovision’s strongest recent performers, with frequent top-10 finishes and strong jury appeal. Song/competition uncertainty remains, but base rates and delegation quality make a top-10 more likely than not.”

Will Microsoft reach $570 in April?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-01

“Only one trading day remains before May 1. Hitting $570 requires a sizable near-term move unless MSFT is already very close; absent evidence it is, the chance is low but not impossible.”

Will Georgia win the televote for Eurovision 2026?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-16

“Georgia has never been a dominant televote force and is rarely among Eurovision favorites. Winning the overall televote requires broad pan-European appeal; absent strong evidence of a standout 2026 entry, chances look very low.”

Will Croatia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-16

“Croatia is a capable Eurovision country but top-10 requires a strong song, staging, and draw. With no clear evidence of a standout 2026 entry by Apr 30, base rates suggest a below-even chance.”

Will San Marino be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-16

“San Marino is one of Eurovision’s smallest, historically weakest countries and has never been a jury powerhouse. Winning the 2026 jury vote would require an exceptional outlier entry; possible but extremely unlikely.”

Will Denmark be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-16

“Denmark has rarely cracked Eurovision’s top 5 in recent years and is not a consistent frontrunner. With ~37 finalists and many stronger contenders, a top-5 finish is possible but unlikely.”

Will Portugal be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-16

“Portugal is rarely a top jury favorite and usually lacks the consistent jury dominance needed to win Eurovision juries. Without strong evidence of an exceptional 2026 entry, this remains a low-probability outcome.”

Will Sweden be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-16

“Sweden is one of Eurovision’s strongest, most consistent performers and often places highly. Top-5 is far from guaranteed given song/year variance and competition, but Sweden’s base rate makes it slightly more likely than not.”

Will Denmark be the best Nordic country at Eurovision 2026?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-16

“Denmark is historically weaker than Sweden and often Finland/Norway at Eurovision. Being best Nordic requires beating all peers in one contest; possible, but Sweden especially makes this a low-probability outcome.”

Will Julia Letlow be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-16

“Letlow is a plausible contender but no clear evidence she’s running or leading. Louisiana GOP has other strong potential candidates and incumbency/field dynamics make her nomination relatively unlikely by mid-May 2026.”

Will Microsoft reach $473 in April?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-01

“With only one trading day left in April, hitting $473 depends on MSFT being very near that level already. A one-day move can do it, but absent evidence it's close, the chance is below even.”

Will Finland be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-16

“A top-3 Eurovision finish is rare and highly competitive. Without strong evidence Finland has a standout favorite this year, base rates and field uncertainty keep the chance modest, though not negligible.”

Will NVIDIA reach $228 in April?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-01

“On Apr 30, a monthly high/low threshold market this late strongly favors levels already near or below recent trading ranges. With only one trading day left, $228 is very likely to have been touched if remotely close.”

Will Apple reach $292 in April?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-01

“With only one trading day left in April, hitting $292 requires AAPL to already be near that level or make a large move. Such end-of-month threshold hits are uncommon unless the stock is already within close range.”

Will Meta dip to $450 in April?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-01

“With only one day left in April, META would need to touch $450 intramonth. Unless it is already very near that level, a same-day dip is relatively unlikely; large-cap moves of that size in one session are uncommon.”

Will Netflix reach $140 in April?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-01

“NFLX has traded far above $140 for years; reaching exactly $140 in April 2026 would require an extreme collapse. Absent extraordinary news, this is effectively negligible, though not impossible.”

Will Georgia be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-16

“Georgia is rarely a top jury contender at Eurovision and typically lacks the broad pan-jury support needed to win. With many stronger traditional jury magnets usually in the field, Georgia winning the 2026 jury vote is very unlikely.”

Will Manchester City win the 2025-2026 FA Cup?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-16

“Even as a top club, any single-team FA Cup win chance is limited by knockout variance and strong rivals. By late April they may still be alive, but title probability is typically well below 25% unless already in the final.”

Will Finland be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-16

“Finland is a strong Eurovision country with recent standout results, but top-10 is competitive and song/staging draw matter a lot. Without clear evidence of a top-tier 2026 entry, slightly below even odds is reasonable.”

Will Albania be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-16

“Albania has never won Eurovision and is rarely a top jury favorite. Jury winners usually come from stronger, more consistent contenders; absent standout evidence for 2026, Albania remains a long shot.”

Will Amazon dip to $192 in April?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-01

“With only one day left in April, hitting a specific downside level requires a sizable intraday drop unless AMZN is already near $192. Such last-day threshold hits are possible but generally unlikely.”

Will Latvia be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-16

“Latvia is rarely a top Eurovision jury force and usually enters as an outsider. With many stronger, more jury-friendly countries typically competing, Latvia winning the 2026 jury vote is possible but quite unlikely.”

Will Netflix reach $368 in April?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-01

“By Apr 30, 2026, Netflix has almost certainly traded above $368 at some point in April; that level is far below its recent price range, making a miss very unlikely barring bad market data.”

Will Tesla reach $458 in April?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-01

“Only one trading day remains on Apr 30. Hitting $458 requires a sizable move unless TSLA is already very near that level; such one-day threshold hits are possible but not likely absent strong momentum/news.”

Will John Cavanaugh be the Democratic nominee for NE-02?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-12

“Cavanaugh appears to be a leading, well-known Democrat in NE-02 with establishment support and no clear stronger rival evident this late in the race, though primaries can still surprise.”

Will NVIDIA dip to $136 in April?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-01

“With only one day left in April, hitting $136 requires a sharp downside move unless NVDA is already near that level. Large-cap megacaps can swing, but a late-month dip to a specific low is relatively unlikely.”

Will Apple dip to $200 in April?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-01

“With only one day left in April, a dip to $200 would require a sharp move unless AAPL is already very near that level. Such last-day threshold hits are possible but relatively unlikely absent major news or existing proximity.”

Will Rayo Vallecano reach the UEFA Europa Conference League semifinal?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-08

“Rayo Vallecano are not a regular European participant and reaching the Conference League semifinal by May 8, 2026 would require a deep run from a relatively unlikely entrant. Base rate for this specific club is very low.”

Will April 2026 be the 1st hottest on record?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-10

“Global monthly temperature records are very competitive. After exceptional 2023–2024 warmth, April 2026 could still be top-tier, but being specifically the hottest April is less likely than not.”

Will April 2026 be the 3rd hottest on record?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-10

“Recent Aprils have often ranked near the top, but exact 3rd place is a narrow outcome. With strong warmth but ranking uncertainty among 1st/2nd/4th+, the chance of landing exactly 3rd is well below 50%.”

Will Rachel Anderson be the Democratic nominee for Senate in West Virginia?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-12

“Rachel Anderson appears to be a little-known or non-prominent contender, with no strong evidence she leads the WV Democratic Senate field. Nominees usually come from better-known, better-funded candidates.”

Will April 2026 be the 2nd hottest on record?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-10

“Recent Aprils have often ranked near the top, but exact rank=2 is a narrow outcome. Given persistent warmth yet month-to-month variability and competition from 2024/2025, 2nd place is plausible but less likely than other ranks.”

Will global temperature increase by more than 1.29ºC in April 2026?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-10

“Recent monthly global anomalies have often exceeded ~1.3°C above preindustrial, though 2026 may be cooler than 2023–24 El Niño peaks. April remains likely to stay above 1.29°C, but not overwhelmingly so.”

Will Braga reach the UEFA Europa League semifinal?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-08

“Braga are a solid Portuguese side but not among Europa League favorites. Reaching the semifinal requires surviving a deep knockout path against stronger clubs; historically this is a low-probability outcome.”

Will Google dip to $240 in April?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-01

“With only one trading day left in April, hitting $240 requires a sharp downside move unless GOOGL is already very near that level. Such last-day threshold hits are uncommon absent major news or broad market shock.”

Will Opendoor dip to $3.50 in April?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-01

“With only one trading day left in April, a dip to $3.50 is very likely if the market is pricing this question now. Short-horizon price-threshold markets near expiry usually imply high confidence when still open on the final day.”

Will Tesla reach $555 in April?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-01✓ CorrectBrier: 0.006

“With only one day left in April, TSLA would need to touch $555 intramonth by tomorrow. Such a large late-month move is uncommon unless already near that level; absent evidence it has, YES looks unlikely.”

Will Russia enter Vozdvyzhivka by April 30?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-04-30✗ WrongBrier: 0.518

“By the resolution date, Russian forces have sustained pressure in Donetsk and often make incremental village entries. Given the long horizon already elapsed and proximity of operations, entry by Apr 30 is more likely than not.”

Pakistan military action against Afghanistan by April 30?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.032

“Pakistan-Afghanistan border clashes and airstrikes have occurred before, but overt new Pakistani military action by the deadline is relatively unlikely absent a fresh trigger, and no clear evidence is provided here that one occurred today.”

Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the Atlantic Division?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.006

“By resolution date the Atlantic winner is typically already determined; Tampa Bay would need to be leading the division now. Given recent divisional strength from Florida/Toronto and timing, Lightning winning is unlikely.”

Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-04-30✗ WrongBrier: 0.672

“Apple is usually among the top 2 by market cap; being exactly 3rd on a specific date is plausible but less likely than 1st/2nd or slipping lower amid AI-driven moves by Microsoft/Nvidia.”

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.006

“Despite persistent Red Sea attacks and disruptions, Bab el-Mandeb has remained navigable with rerouting, escorts, and reduced traffic rather than a full effective closure. A sudden same-day closure by Apr 30 appears unlikely.”

Will Trump meet with Giorgia Meloni in April 2026?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-04-30

“As of the resolution date, no widely reported April 2026 Trump-Meloni meeting is known. Such meetings are plausible but relatively infrequent and usually highly visible, so absent evidence the chance is low.”

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by April 30?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-04-30

“By the resolution date, no confirmed Russian capture of Kostyantynivka is evident. Taking a defended city is hard and absent strong evidence on the day, YES is unlikely though late-breaking claims remain possible.”

Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.000

“Meituan is not widely seen as a frontier AI model leader versus OpenAI, Google, Anthropic, xAI, DeepSeek, Alibaba, or ByteDance. A last-day leap to clear best-by-consensus status is extremely unlikely.”

Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.001

“Direct Saudi military strikes on Iran are highly unlikely by today; Riyadh has pursued de-escalation with Tehran since 2023 and would face major regional and economic risks from open attack.”

Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.032

“Amazon is a top-5 contender but usually trails Microsoft, Apple, and often Nvidia/Saudi Aramco. Being exactly #2 on a specific date is plausible but unlikely given multiple larger rivals and market volatility.”

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?

Apr 29 · Ends 2026-04-30✗ WrongBrier: 0.846

“With only ~1 day left, a clear end to an Iran-Israel/US conflict by Apr 30 is unlikely unless de-escalation has already been formalized. Such conflicts rarely resolve definitively on a 24-hour horizon.”

Israeli forces enter Beirut by April 30, 2026?

Apr 29 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.004

“With only ~1 day left, a major Israeli ground entry into Beirut would be highly visible and likely already underway. Such escalation is rare and risky; absent clear signs, odds by Apr 30 are very low.”

Will BC.Game make a roster move before May?

Apr 29 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.001

“With resolution on Apr 30 and asking before May, almost the entire window has elapsed. If no move had happened yet, YES is unlikely; but by this date roster changes in esports over months are very common, so YES is highly likely.”

Will Iran sabotage undersea internet cables by April 30?

Apr 29 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.001

“Undersea cable sabotage is rare, hard to attribute, and highly escalatory. With only ~1 day left, absent strong public indicators, Iran doing this by Apr 30 is very unlikely.”

Will Russia enter Dovha Balka by April 30?

Apr 29 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.048

“With only one day left, this likely hinges on whether Russian forces are already at/near Dovha Balka. Given the extended deadline and typical frontline creep, entry is more likely than not, but uncertainty remains without fresh battlefield confirmation.”

Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?

Apr 29 · Ends 2026-04-30✗ WrongBrier: 0.922

“Alphabet is typically behind Microsoft, Apple, Nvidia, and often Amazon/Saudi Aramco by market cap. Reaching exactly #2 by tomorrow would require an unusual ranking shift, so odds are low.”

Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?

Apr 29 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.032

“With only ~1 day left, a new overt military action against Iran by another country is possible but unlikely absent clear crisis indicators. Base rate for such action in a 24-hour window is low.”

Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?

Apr 29 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.168

“Google is a top contender, but frontier leadership has been volatile among OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI and Google. By end-April 2026, Google having the clear best model seems less likely than the field or a rival leading.”

Will Seoul have between 65-70mm of precipitation in April?

Apr 29 · Ends 2026-04-30

“A 5mm-wide exact monthly precipitation band is narrow. Seoul April totals vary widely year to year; unless current month-to-date is already near 65-70mm, landing in that interval is unlikely.”

Will the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $2.75 (HIGH) by April 30, 2026?

Apr 29 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.032

“With only 1 day left, hitting a specific HIGH threshold requires the index to already be near $2.75 or see a sharp spike. H100 rental pricing has generally softened with supply growth, so a last-day jump to $2.75 seems unlikely.”

Will the Montreal Canadiens win the Atlantic Division?

Apr 29 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.000

“By Apr 29, 2026 the Atlantic winner is effectively determined; Montreal has not been a top Atlantic favorite and would need to already lead. Chance they finish 1st from this point is extremely low.”

Will Baidu have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?

Apr 29 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.006

“Baidu is a serious Chinese AI player, but by Apr 2026 it likely trails top frontier labs like OpenAI, Google, Anthropic, xAI/DeepSeek/Meta. Exactly 3rd overall is a narrow target, making YES unlikely.”

Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be less than 1.0%?

Apr 29 · Ends 2026-04-30✗ WrongBrier: 0.410

“Q1 GDP often comes in soft due to seasonality/noise, and 2026 growth appears modest amid tighter financial conditions and policy uncertainty. Sub-1.0% annualized growth is somewhat more likely than not.”

Will Russia enter Verkhnia Tersa by April 30, 2026?

Apr 29 · Ends 2026-04-30✗ WrongBrier: 0.672

“With only 1 day left, absent clear evidence of imminent entry, base rates strongly favor NO. Frontline advances are uncertain and settlement-entry questions often fail late unless troops are already at the outskirts.”

DeepSeek V4 released by April 30?

Apr 29 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.005

“With only ~1 day left, this likely reflects a near-resolution market/question. If DeepSeek V4 had not been released yet, odds would be very low; naming mismatch suggests the event likely already occurred or is expected imminently.”

Will the Central Bank of Colombia announce a decrease at the April meeting?

Apr 29 · Ends 2026-04-30✗ WrongBrier: 0.608

“BanRep has been in an easing cycle as inflation cooled from prior highs, and April meetings often continue gradual cuts unless FX or inflation surprises intervene. A hold is plausible, but a decrease is more likely than not.”

Will the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $2.20 (LOW) by April 30, 2026?

Apr 29 · Ends 2026-04-30✗ WrongBrier: 0.865

“With only 1 day left, hitting a specified LOW threshold is likely if spot H100 rental prices have been trending down amid ample supply and competition. Near-expiry binary on a low bar favors YES unless current index is clearly above $2.20.”

Will the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $2.10 (LOW) by April 30, 2026?

Apr 29 · Ends 2026-04-30✗ WrongBrier: 0.865

“With only 1 day left, hitting a specified LOW threshold is likely if spot GPU rental prices have been trending down/volatile. A low of $2.10 is easier to touch than sustain, so near-expiry odds favor YES unless current prices are clearly well above it.”

Will Hoppers be the March film with the highest domestic gross on April 30?

Apr 29 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.006

“By Apr 30, the top March domestic grosser is usually a major studio breakout. Hoppers is not a widely recognized likely March box-office leader, so it seems an underdog versus bigger March releases.”

Will Google have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?

Apr 29 · Ends 2026-04-30✗ WrongBrier: 0.578

“Google is a top-tier lab, but ranking exactly 3rd by Apr 30, 2026 is a narrow target. It could plausibly be 1st/2nd or below 3rd depending on OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI, Meta, and others, so exact-third odds are modest.”

Will Iran strike Italy by April 30, 2026?

Apr 29 · Ends 2026-04-30

“With only ~1 day left, an Iranian strike on Italy is extremely unlikely. Iran has no recent pattern of direct attacks on Italy, and such an action would risk massive escalation with NATO.”

Will Harry Kane be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 Bundesliga season?

Apr 29 · Ends 2026-05-28

“Kane is Bayern’s primary penalty taker and focal scorer, and he has already shown elite Bundesliga scoring form. With only a few matches left, he’s a strong favorite, though injuries/rotation and close rivals still leave meaningful risk.”

Will one person dissent the April Fed decision?

Apr 29 · Ends 2026-04-29✗ WrongBrier: 0.533

“FOMC dissents are uncommon, and exactly one dissent is less likely than unanimous or multiple dissents. Without strong meeting-specific signals, a single dissent is a modest-probability outcome.”

Will the Bank of Canada announce a 25 bps decrease at the April meeting?

Apr 28 · Ends 2026-04-29✗ WrongBrier: 0.518

“With resolution on Apr 29, the April BoC decision is effectively imminent/known. Given recent easing bias and typical 25 bps step size, a cut is more likely than not, though not certain due to inflation/data surprises.”

Will the Communist Party of India (CPI) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?

Apr 28 · Ends 2026-04-29✓ CorrectBrier: 0.000

“CPI is a minor force in West Bengal; the main contest is dominated by TMC and BJP, with Left influence far reduced. CPI winning the most seats would require an extreme upset by tomorrow.”

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?

Apr 28 · Ends 2026-04-29✓ CorrectBrier: 0.032

“The April meeting is typically less likely for a move than marquee meetings, and by late Apr 2026 the Fed may prefer to wait for more inflation/labor data. A 25 bps cut is plausible but still clearly less likely than no cut.”

Will Tesla be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?

Apr 28 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.006

“Tesla would need to rank behind only two firms by Apr 30, 2026. Given typical leaders like Microsoft, Apple, Nvidia, Saudi Aramco, Alphabet, and Amazon, Tesla being exactly #3 in two days looks unlikely.”

Will SpaceX have exactly 16 launches in April?

Apr 28 · Ends 2026-04-30

“By Apr 28, exactly 16 requires the month-end total to land precisely on 16. SpaceX’s cadence is high but variable, and hitting one exact count is less likely than nearby totals; only ~2 days remain for adjustments.”

Will Iran strike Burj Khalifa by April 30?

Apr 28 · Ends 2026-04-30

“A direct Iranian strike on Dubai’s Burj Khalifa within 2 days would be an extreme escalation against the UAE with huge regional costs; no strong base rate or public indicators make this likely before Apr 30.”

Will Iran strike Leviathan Field by April 30?

Apr 28 · Ends 2026-04-30

“Leviathan is a high-value Israeli offshore gas target, but direct Iranian strikes there would risk major escalation and are rare. With only 2 days left, absent clear precursor signals, odds are very low.”

Will Arsenal finish in 3rd place in the 2025-26 English Premier League?

Apr 28 · Ends 2026-05-27

“With only a few matches left, exact 3rd is a narrow target. Arsenal are a strong top-4 side, but finishing precisely 3rd depends on current table position and tight rival results, making it materially less likely than not.”

Will Thierno Barry be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 English Premier League season?

Apr 28 · Ends 2026-05-27

“Barry is not among the established EPL Golden Boot favorites; with only a few matches left, overtaking elite scorers is extremely unlikely unless he is already leading, which is improbable.”

Will Nott'm Forest win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League?

Apr 28 · Ends 2026-05-24

“By late April 2026 the Europa League is near completion; Nottingham Forest are very unlikely to be in position to win, and pre-tournament title odds for a non-elite entrant were low.”

Will Chris Wood be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 English Premier League season?

Apr 28 · Ends 2026-05-27

“Top scorer this late in the season is usually among elite-volume forwards like Haaland/Salah/Isak. Chris Wood would need to be leading or very close already; absent strong evidence, his chance is low but not impossible.”

Will Mohamed Salah be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 English Premier League season?

Apr 28 · Ends 2026-05-27

“Top-scorer races are crowded and volatile. Salah is elite and always a contender, but age, rotation/injuries, penalties, and rivals like Haaland/Isak make any single player’s chance well below 50%.”

Will Liverpool finish in 2nd place in the 2025-26 English Premier League?

Apr 28 · Ends 2026-05-27

“With only a few matches left, Liverpool would need to be exactly 2nd at season end; title and top-4 races are usually tight, but any single rival above/below them can shift placement. 2nd is plausible yet clearly not the most likely exact finish.”

Will Viktor Gyokeres be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 English Premier League season?

Apr 28 · Ends 2026-05-27

“By late April the EPL Golden Boot race is usually nearly settled. Gyokeres is not a leading incumbent EPL scorer and may not even be in the league; overtaking established stars this late is very unlikely.”

Will Bukayo Saka be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 English Premier League season?

Apr 28 · Ends 2026-05-27

“Late in the 2025–26 season, Saka is an elite winger but not usually the league’s highest-volume scorer; central strikers and penalty-heavy forwards are more likely to finish top.”

Will Manchester United finish in 2nd place in the 2025-26 English Premier League?

Apr 28 · Ends 2026-05-27

“By late April, 2nd place is usually nearly locked in. Man United would need to already be very close and rely on rivals dropping points; absent evidence they’re in that position, the chance is very low.”

Will Manchester City finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings?

Apr 28 · Ends 2026-05-27

“Man City are historically one of the EPL’s strongest sides and, this late in the season, are very likely in or near the top 4. With only a few matches left, elite squad depth and consistency make a top-4 finish highly probable.”

Will Manchester United finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings?

Apr 28 · Ends 2026-05-27

“By late April, top-4 races are usually mostly settled. Man United have underperformed in recent seasons and would need a strong late surge plus rivals dropping points; that combination looks unlikely.”

Will Aston Villa win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League?

Apr 28 · Ends 2026-05-24

“Even strong clubs rarely win a major European knockout tournament. Aston Villa would need to survive late rounds against elite opposition; a plausible contender, but still a clear long shot versus the field.”

Will Matheus Cunha be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 English Premier League season?

Apr 28 · Ends 2026-05-27

“Late in the 2025–26 season, top scorer races are usually led by elite high-volume forwards. Cunha is a strong attacker but not a typical Golden Boot favorite, so his chance to finish outright top is very low.”

Will Alexander Isak be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 English Premier League season?

Apr 28 · Ends 2026-05-27

“With only weeks left, Isak would need to be leading or within 1–2 goals of the top scorers. EPL Golden Boot races are crowded and ties count; absent evidence he currently leads, his chance is modest but not negligible.”

Will Aston Villa finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings?

Apr 28 · Ends 2026-05-27

“With only a few matches left, Villa would need a strong finish plus multiple rivals to drop points. Top-4 races are tight, but from a non-leading position this late, chances are low.”

Will Crystal Palace finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings?

Apr 28 · Ends 2026-05-27

“Crystal Palace are historically far from top-4 level and, this late in the season, would need an exceptional table position to make it. Absent strong contrary evidence, a top-4 finish is extremely unlikely.”

Will Eurozone GDP growth in Q1 2026 be at least 2.5%?

Apr 28 · Ends 2026-04-30

“Eurozone quarterly GDP growth rarely reaches a 2.5% annualized-equivalent pace, and current conditions point to weak/modest growth. Hitting at least 2.5% in Q1 2026 would require a strong upside surprise.”

Will Inter win the 2025–26 Serie A league?

Apr 28 · Ends 2026-05-28

“By late April the title race is usually nearly settled. Inter are a strong club but not favorites from behind this late; only a modest chance remains via rivals dropping points and Inter finishing strongly.”

Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?

Apr 28 · Ends 2026-05-27

“By late April the title race is usually nearly settled. Arsenal would need to be leading or within striking distance; absent evidence of that, any single team’s title chance this late is low.”

Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League?

Apr 28 · Ends 2026-05-27

“By late April 2026 the title race is effectively decided and Manchester United are not in realistic contention. A United title from here would require an extreme, highly implausible collapse by current leaders.”

Will AC Milan win the 2025–26 Serie A league?

Apr 28 · Ends 2026-05-28

“By late April only a few matchdays remain; a team not already leading has very limited title chances. AC Milan would need a near-perfect finish plus multiple slips by rivals, so the title is highly unlikely.”

Will three people dissent the April Fed decision?

Apr 28 · Ends 2026-04-29

“Three dissents at a single FOMC decision are very rare; most meetings have 0-1 dissent, occasionally 2. Hitting exactly 3 requires unusual, broad disagreement, which is unlikely absent clear signs of major policy conflict.”

Will Mohammed Amoura be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 Bundesliga season?

Apr 28 · Ends 2026-05-28

“Amoura would need to outscore elite Bundesliga forwards over a full season. As of late April, top-scorer races are usually led by more established high-volume scorers; any single named player outside that group is a long shot.”

Will Lois Openda be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 Bundesliga season?

Apr 28 · Ends 2026-05-28

“Top-scorer markets are concentrated among a few elite forwards; Openda is strong but faces major competition and needs both form and minutes. With only about a month left in season, a comeback to outright top scorer is unlikely.”

Will Juventus finish in the top 4 in the 2025-26 Serie A season?

Apr 28 · Ends 2026-05-28

“Juventus are historically a top-4 caliber Serie A side with strong squad depth and resources. With only about a month left, they’re more likely than not to secure a Champions League place unless they’re currently in a major slump.”

Will Napoli finish in the top 4 in the 2025-26 Serie A season?

Apr 28 · Ends 2026-05-28

“With only about a month left, Napoli are very likely already in or near the top 4. As a traditional elite side with strong squad quality, late-season top-4 positions are usually sticky absent a major collapse.”

Will Wolves finish in last place in the 2025-26 English Premier League?

Apr 28 · Ends 2026-05-27

“Wolves are an established EPL side and, absent evidence they are already adrift late in the season, any single named club finishing 20th is usually a low-probability outcome. Last place is more often a newly promoted or clearly struggling team.”

Will Andrej Kramaric be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 Bundesliga season?

Apr 28 · Ends 2026-05-28

“Kramaric is a strong scorer but not a typical Bundesliga Golden Boot favorite; with elite strikers at bigger clubs and only a month left, his chance to finish outright top is extremely low.”

Will Galatasaray win the Süper Lig?

Apr 28 · Ends 2026-05-24

“Late April is near season end; Galatasaray are likely leading or in strong position. In a two-horse title race, a clear late-season edge usually converts more often than not, though slips and rival surges remain possible.”

Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?

Apr 28 · Ends 2026-05-26

“Cornyn has incumbency and funding, but faces strong anti-establishment headwinds in a GOP primary and credible right-flank opposition. In today’s Texas GOP, an incumbent senator is vulnerable enough to be a slight underdog.”

Will Florian Wirtz be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 English Premier League season?

Apr 28 · Ends 2026-05-27

“Wirtz is primarily a creator/attacking midfielder, not a high-volume striker, and likely trails elite EPL scorers like Haaland/Isak/Salah types. With only a month left, him finishing top scorer is extremely unlikely.”

Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Serie A league?

Apr 28 · Ends 2026-05-28

“With only about a month left, Napoli would need to be leading or within striking distance. Serie A title races this late usually favor the current leader; Napoli are a plausible contender but not the most likely champion.”

Will Mohammed Kudus be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 English Premier League season?

Apr 28 · Ends 2026-05-27

“Kudus is a talented attacker but not a typical Golden Boot favorite; with only a few matches left, established elite strikers are far likelier to finish top scorer unless he is already leading by a lot.”

Will Beth Van Duyne win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?

Apr 28 · Ends 2026-05-26

“Van Duyne is a known GOP congresswoman but appears behind stronger statewide contenders in visibility, endorsements, and fundraising. With under a month left, she looks like a plausible but clear underdog to win the primary.”

Will Wesley Hunt win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?

Apr 28 · Ends 2026-05-26

“Hunt is a prominent GOP congressman with strong fundraising, establishment ties, and statewide ambition. In a Texas GOP primary, that makes him a plausible frontrunner, though field uncertainty and runoff dynamics still leave meaningful risk.”

Will Evanilson be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 English Premier League season?

Apr 28 · Ends 2026-05-27

“With only weeks left, top scorer is usually among established elite forwards. Evanilson would need to be leading or very close already; absent strong evidence of that, his chance to finish top is extremely low.”

Will Braga win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League?

Apr 28 · Ends 2026-05-24

“Braga are a clear longshot relative to Europe’s elite; by late April only a few teams remain and Braga historically are not among the likeliest Europa League winners. A title from here is very unlikely.”

Will Ollie Watkins be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 English Premier League season?

Apr 28 · Ends 2026-05-27

“With only weeks left in 2025–26, Watkins would need to be leading or very close. EPL top scorer is usually dominated by elite-volume forwards; Watkins is strong but historically a long shot versus favorites.”

Will Brennan Johnson be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 English Premier League season?

Apr 28 · Ends 2026-05-27

“Very unlikely this late in the season. Johnson is not typically among the league’s elite volume scorers, and top-scorer races are usually led by established high-output forwards.”

Will Liam Delap be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 English Premier League season?

Apr 28 · Ends 2026-05-27

“With only weeks left in the 2025–26 season, Delap would need to be leading or very close already. Established elite scorers usually win this market; Delap is a long shot absent evidence he’s atop the chart now.”

Will Dawn Buckingham win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?

Apr 28 · Ends 2026-05-26

“Buckingham is a statewide officeholder but not the clear frontrunner for a Texas GOP Senate primary; absent strong evidence she’s leading, the field likely favors better-known or better-positioned rivals.”

Will Jarrod Bowen be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 English Premier League season?

Apr 28 · Ends 2026-05-27

“Bowen is a strong scorer but usually trails elite EPL Golden Boot favorites. With only weeks left in 2025–26, overtaking top strikers is highly unlikely unless he is already leading, which is improbable.”

Will Aston Villa finish in 2nd place in the 2025-26 English Premier League?

Apr 28 · Ends 2026-05-27

“With only a few matches left, Villa would need to be in or very near 2nd. Historically, finishing 2nd is dominated by a few elite clubs; Villa doing so is possible but still a clear long shot.”

Will Bryan Mbeumo be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 English Premier League season?

Apr 28 · Ends 2026-05-27

“Mbeumo is a strong scorer but not among the likeliest Golden Boot favorites versus elite forwards like Haaland/Salah/Isak. With only weeks left, he’d need to be leading or very close; base rate for any one player is low.”

Will Benjamin Sesko be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 English Premier League season?

Apr 28 · Ends 2026-05-27

“Late in the 2025–26 season, Sesko would need to be leading or within striking distance. EPL top scorer is usually dominated by elite incumbents; absent evidence he’s currently atop the chart, his chance is very low.”

Will no one dissent the April Fed decision?

Apr 28 · Ends 2026-04-29

“FOMC decisions are often unanimous, especially when policy is on hold and guidance is well telegraphed. Dissents do occur but remain relatively infrequent, so no dissent is the likelier outcome.”

Will Richarlison be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 English Premier League season?

Apr 28 · Ends 2026-05-27

“Richarlison is not among the league’s usual Golden Boot favorites and faces strong competition from elite scorers. With little time left in the season, his chance to finish top is extremely low.”

Will Brighton finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings?

Apr 28 · Ends 2026-05-27

“With only a few matches left, Brighton would need a strong finish plus multiple rivals to drop points. Historically top-4 spots are dominated by richer clubs; Brighton making it from here looks unlikely.”

Will Sunderland finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings?

Apr 28 · Ends 2026-05-27

“A newly promoted/recently lower-tier side making EPL top 4 is extraordinarily rare. With only a few matches left by late April, Sunderland would need an exceptional position/run-in; absent evidence of that, top-4 odds are near-zero.”

Will Jean-Philippe Mateta be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 English Premier League season?

Apr 28 · Ends 2026-05-27

“With only weeks left, Mateta is not among the likeliest leaders. EPL top scorer usually comes from elite-volume forwards; overtaking current leaders late is very unlikely.”

Will Erling Haaland be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 English Premier League season?

Apr 28 · Ends 2026-05-27

“By late April the Golden Boot race is usually nearly settled. Haaland is elite and capable of late surges, but needing to lead all scorers from here is unlikely unless he is already within 1–2 goals of the top.”

Will Manchester City finish in 2nd place in the 2025-26 English Premier League?

Apr 28 · Ends 2026-05-27

“With only a few matches left, exact 2nd is a narrow target. Even if Man City are near the top, they have multiple plausible finishing spots; any single exact position is usually well below 50% absent a clear lock.”

Will Freiburg win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League?

Apr 28 · Ends 2026-05-24

“Freiburg are a plausible but clear longshot in a strong Europa League field. Only a few matches remain, but top clubs usually dominate this competition; Freiburg’s title chance is low, around a few percent.”

Will Liverpool finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings?

Apr 28 · Ends 2026-05-27

“By late April Liverpool are very likely already in or near a mathematically secure top-4 position; with only a few matches left, established elite clubs in that spot almost always finish there.”

Will Arsenal finish in 2nd place in the 2025-26 English Premier League?

Apr 28 · Ends 2026-05-27

“With only a few matches left, 2nd place is plausible but not the most likely exact finish. Arsenal are a strong top-4 side, yet exact-position markets are volatile and several rivals may still be clustered nearby.”

Will Nicolas Jackson be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 English Premier League season?

Apr 28 · Ends 2026-05-27

“With only weeks left in the 2025–26 season, Jackson would need to be leading or very close. He has not been a consistent EPL Golden Boot favorite versus elite scorers like Haaland/Salah/Isak, so chances are extremely low.”

Will Hugo Ekitike be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 English Premier League season?

Apr 28 · Ends 2026-05-27

“Top scorer is usually an elite, established EPL striker. Ekitike would need both a breakout season and to outscore stars like Haaland/Salah/Isak; possible but unlikely this late in the season.”

Will Bruno Fernandes be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 English Premier League season?

Apr 28 · Ends 2026-05-27

“Fernandes is primarily a midfielder and penalty taker, not a typical Golden Boot favorite. With specialist strikers and wingers usually leading EPL scoring, him finishing top by season end is very unlikely.”

Will Sunderland finish in 3rd place in the 2025-26 English Premier League?

Apr 28 · Ends 2026-05-27

“Sunderland finishing exactly 3rd in the Premier League is extremely unlikely; as a non-established top-4 side, they’d need an exceptional season and to land on one specific position.”

Will Chelsea finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings?

Apr 28 · Ends 2026-05-27

“With only a few matches left, Chelsea appear to be in the top-4 race with strong squad quality. But EPL margins are thin and rivals are close, so only a modest edge over 50%.”

Will Brentford finish in 3rd place in the 2025-26 English Premier League?

Apr 28 · Ends 2026-05-27

“Brentford finishing exactly 3rd is extremely unlikely this late in the season; they are not a typical top-3 EPL side, and only one exact slot qualifies, making base odds very low.”

Will Keldric Faulk be the third pick in the 2026 NFL draft?

Apr 22 · Ends 2026-04-23

“Predicting specific draft picks is highly uncertain due to numerous factors like team needs, player performance, and draft trades. Being the third pick is particularly unlikely given the number of eligible players and the variability in team strategies.”

Will Jeremiyah Love be the third pick in the 2026 NFL draft?

Apr 22 · Ends 2026-04-23

“The NFL draft is highly unpredictable, and while Jeremiyah Love may be a top prospect, being the exact third pick is unlikely due to team needs, trades, and other prospects' performances.”

Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election?

Apr 22 · Ends 2026-04-23✓ CorrectBrier: 0.003

“AITC is not a major political force in Tamil Nadu, where DMK and AIADMK dominate. It's unlikely for AITC to win the most seats in the 2026 election.”

Will Kuwait strike Iran by April 30?

Apr 22 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.003

“Kuwait has historically maintained a neutral stance and diplomatic relations with Iran. There is no recent indication of heightened tensions or military buildup suggesting an imminent strike by Kuwait on Iran.”

Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?

Apr 22 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.010

“The UAE has historically pursued diplomatic solutions and economic partnerships, especially within the Gulf region. A military strike on Iran would be a significant escalation, unlikely without broader regional or international conflict involvement.”

Will the Indian National Congress (INC) win the most seats in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election?

Apr 22 · Ends 2026-04-23✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022

“The DMK is historically dominant in Tamil Nadu politics, and recent trends show continued support. INC has limited influence in the state, making it unlikely for them to win the most seats.”

Will Trump visit China by April 30?

Apr 22 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.010

“With only 8 days left and no public announcements or indications of a planned visit, it is highly unlikely Trump will visit China by April 30.”

Will Juliette Chesnel-Leroux win the 2026 Nice mayoral election?

Apr 22 · Ends 2026-05-22

“Without specific polling data or recent political developments, it's challenging to predict. However, incumbents often have an advantage, and unless Chesnel-Leroux is the incumbent or has significant momentum, her chances are slightly less than even.”

Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?

Apr 22 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.003

“The Iranian regime has shown resilience despite internal and external pressures. With only a few days left until the deadline, a regime change is highly unlikely.”

Will Iran strike Qatar by April 30, 2026?

Apr 22 · Ends 2026-04-30

“Iran has no recent history of direct military aggression against Qatar. Diplomatic and economic ties, along with regional stability interests, make such an action unlikely. No significant tensions reported recently to suggest imminent conflict.”

Will Trevor Goosby be the second pick in the 2026 NFL draft?

Apr 22 · Ends 2026-04-23

“Draft predictions are highly uncertain and influenced by team needs, player performance, and other factors. Without specific information on Trevor Goosby's current standing, the probability of him being the exact second pick is low.”

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?

Apr 22 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122

“Given the ongoing conflict dynamics and lack of recent diplomatic breakthroughs, a ceasefire by April 30, 2026, seems unlikely. Historical patterns show prolonged conflicts, and current tensions suggest a low probability of resolution within the next week.”

Will Nico Iamaleava be the second pick in the 2026 NFL draft?

Apr 21 · Ends 2026-04-23

“Draft predictions are highly uncertain. While Nico Iamaleava is a talented player, many factors influence draft order, including team needs and other prospects' performances. Being the exact second pick is less likely than not.”

Will the Pittsburgh Steelers draft a quarterback in the first round of the 2026 NFL Draft?

Apr 21 · Ends 2026-04-23✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122

“The Steelers have a stable QB situation with recent investments in young talent. Unless unforeseen circumstances arise, they are unlikely to draft a QB in the first round.”

Will Garrett Nussmeier be the third pick in the 2026 NFL draft?

Apr 21 · Ends 2026-04-23

“Predicting exact draft positions is highly uncertain. While Nussmeier may be a strong prospect, many factors influence draft order, making it unlikely he is specifically the third pick.”

Will Ty Simpson be the third pick in the 2026 NFL draft?

Apr 21 · Ends 2026-04-23

“Draft picks are highly uncertain and depend on team needs and player performance. With no specific information indicating Ty Simpson's likelihood as the third pick, the probability is low.”

Will Fernando Mendoza be the third pick in the 2026 NFL draft?

Apr 21 · Ends 2026-04-23

“Draft picks are highly uncertain and depend on team needs, player performance, and other prospects. Without specific standout information about Mendoza, the probability is low for him being the third pick.”

Will Kayden McDonald be the third pick in the 2026 NFL draft?

Apr 21 · Ends 2026-04-23

“Predicting specific draft picks is highly uncertain due to many variables like team needs, player performance, and trades. Kayden McDonald being the exact third pick is unlikely given the number of eligible players and draft dynamics.”

Will Jordyn Tyson be the third pick in the 2026 NFL draft?

Apr 21 · Ends 2026-04-23

“Predicting specific draft positions is highly uncertain due to many variables like team needs, player performance, and draft trades. Being the third pick is particularly unlikely without strong consensus on his ranking.”

Will the Los Angeles Rams draft a quarterback in the first round of the 2026 NFL Draft?

Apr 21 · Ends 2026-04-23

“The Rams have a young QB in place and typically focus on other positions in the first round. Unless their current QB underperforms or is injured, it's unlikely they'll draft a QB early.”

Will the 1st pick in the 2026 Pro Football draft be traded?

Apr 21 · Ends 2026-04-23

“Historically, the 1st pick is highly valued and rarely traded. Teams often prefer to use it to select top talent. While trades do happen, they are not the norm for the 1st pick.”

Will Carson Beck be the third pick in the 2026 NFL draft?

Apr 21 · Ends 2026-04-23

“Predicting the exact draft pick is highly uncertain due to numerous variables like team needs, player performance, and draft trades. Carson Beck is a notable player, but being the third pick is unlikely given the competition and unpredictability of the draft.”

Will T.J. Parker be the third pick in the 2026 NFL draft?

Apr 21 · Ends 2026-04-23

“Draft picks are highly uncertain and influenced by team needs, player performance, and other prospects. Without specific standout information on T.J. Parker, the probability of him being the exact third pick is low.”

Will Nico Iamaleava be the third pick in the 2026 NFL draft?

Apr 21 · Ends 2026-04-23

“Draft picks are highly uncertain and depend on team needs, player performance, and other prospects. Being the third pick is specific and unlikely given the many variables involved.”

Will the Indianapolis Colts draft a quarterback in the first round of the 2026 NFL Draft?

Apr 21 · Ends 2026-04-23

“The Colts have a history of drafting QBs early when needed. If their current QB situation is uncertain or underperforming, they may draft a QB in the first round. It's close to the draft, suggesting they might be considering this option.”

Will the Miami Dolphins draft a quarterback in the first round of the 2026 NFL Draft?

Apr 21 · Ends 2026-04-23

“The Dolphins have a young, promising QB under contract and no major QB issues reported. They are more likely to focus on other positions in the draft.”

Will the Las Vegas Raiders draft a quarterback in the first round of the 2026 NFL Draft?

Apr 21 · Ends 2026-04-23

“The Raiders have a young quarterback they are developing, and recent reports suggest they are focusing on other positions in the draft. However, team needs can change quickly, so there's still a significant chance they could draft a QB.”

Will South Korea GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.4%?

Apr 21 · Ends 2026-04-23

“South Korea's GDP growth has been stable, with recent trends and economic policies supporting moderate growth. Current forecasts and economic indicators suggest a likelihood of growth within the 2.0% to 2.4% range.”

Will Dante Moore be the third pick in the 2026 NFL draft?

Apr 21 · Ends 2026-04-23

“Draft predictions are highly uncertain, especially for specific picks. While Dante Moore may be a top prospect, the exact order depends on team needs and other players' performances. Being the third pick is unlikely given these variables.”

Will Peter Woods be the third pick in the 2026 NFL draft?

Apr 21 · Ends 2026-04-23

“Draft picks are highly uncertain and depend on team needs and player performance. Being the third pick is specific and unlikely given the multitude of factors influencing draft order.”

Will South Korea GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 0.5% and 0.9%?

Apr 21 · Ends 2026-04-23

“South Korea's GDP growth has been stable, with recent trends and economic policies supporting moderate growth. Given the current economic climate and historical data, a growth rate between 0.5% and 0.9% is plausible.”

Will Trevor Goosby be the third pick in the 2026 NFL draft?

Apr 21 · Ends 2026-04-23

“Draft predictions are highly uncertain and depend on team needs, player performance, and other variables. Without specific information on Trevor Goosby's status or draft projections, the likelihood of him being the third pick is low.”

Will T.J. Parker be the second pick in the 2026 NFL draft?

Apr 21 · Ends 2026-04-23

“The NFL draft is highly unpredictable, and while T.J. Parker may be a top prospect, being the exact second pick is unlikely due to team needs and other emerging talents.”

Will South Korea GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 1.0% and 1.4%?

Apr 21 · Ends 2026-04-23

“South Korea's GDP growth has been stable with moderate fluctuations. Current economic indicators suggest growth within the 1.0%-1.4% range is plausible, given recent trends and economic policies.”

Will Kadyn Proctor be the second pick in the 2026 NFL draft?

Apr 21 · Ends 2026-04-23

“The NFL draft is highly unpredictable, and while Kadyn Proctor may be a top prospect, being the exact second pick is unlikely due to team needs and other emerging talents.”

Will South Korea GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 1.5% and 1.9%?

Apr 21 · Ends 2026-04-23

“South Korea's GDP growth has been stable, with recent trends and economic policies supporting moderate growth. Global economic conditions and domestic factors suggest a reasonable likelihood of growth falling within this range.”

Will Drew Allar be the second pick in the 2026 NFL draft?

Apr 21 · Ends 2026-04-23

“Draft positions are highly uncertain and depend on team needs, player performance, and other prospects. Being the second pick is specific and unlikely given the number of eligible players and variables involved.”

Will David Bailey be the third pick in the 2026 NFL draft?

Apr 21 · Ends 2026-04-23

“Draft predictions are highly uncertain and depend on team needs, player performance, and other factors. Without specific information on David Bailey's standing, a 15% chance reflects typical uncertainty for a specific draft position.”

Will South Korea GDP growth in Q1 2026 be less than 0%?

Apr 21 · Ends 2026-04-23

“South Korea's economy is generally stable with consistent growth. While global economic factors can impact growth, a negative GDP is unlikely without significant disruptions, which are not currently evident.”

Will Caleb Downs be the second pick in the 2026 NFL draft?

Apr 21 · Ends 2026-04-23

“The NFL draft is highly unpredictable, and while Caleb Downs may be a top prospect, being the exact second pick is unlikely due to team needs and other emerging talents.”

Will South Korea GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 0.0% and 0.4%?

Apr 21 · Ends 2026-04-23

“South Korea's GDP growth has been relatively stable and above 0.4% in recent quarters. Economic indicators and forecasts suggest a similar trend, making it less likely for growth to fall within 0.0% to 0.4% in Q1 2026.”

Will Russia capture Bilytske by April 30, 2026?

Apr 21 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122

“With only 9 days left and no significant recent advances reported, the likelihood of Russia capturing Bilytske by April 30, 2026, is low. Military operations typically require more time for such objectives.”

Will Conner Weigman be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft?

Apr 20 · Ends 2026-04-25✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022

“The first pick in the NFL Draft is highly competitive and often goes to quarterbacks or standout players. While Conner Weigman may be a strong candidate, many factors such as team needs and other emerging talents reduce his likelihood of being the first pick.”

Israel military action against Fordow nuclear facility by April 30?

Apr 20 · Ends 2026-04-30

“With only 10 days left, no major indicators of imminent action, and potential geopolitical consequences, the likelihood of an Israeli strike on Fordow by April 30 is low.”

Will Atlético Nacional win on 2026-04-20?

Apr 20 · Ends 2026-04-21

“Atlético Nacional is a strong team with a good track record. Given no specific details about the opponent or current form, a slight edge is given to them based on historical performance.”

Will Atlético Nacional vs. CA Bucaramanga end in a draw?

Apr 20 · Ends 2026-04-21

“Historically, Atlético Nacional has a strong home record and tends to win more often than draw. Bucaramanga's away performance is weaker, reducing the likelihood of a draw.”

Will CA Bucaramanga win on 2026-04-20?

Apr 20 · Ends 2026-04-21

“Without specific information on team form, injuries, or opponent, estimating based on general competitive balance in football. Slightly less than even chance for a win.”

Will Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia occur by April 30, 2026?

Apr 20 · Ends 2026-04-30

“Given the historical context of ongoing tensions and previous military actions by the Houthis against Saudi Arabia, it is likely that such actions could occur by the specified date.”

Will Bad Bunny have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?

Apr 20 · Ends 2026-04-30

“Bad Bunny is a top artist, but competition from others like Drake and Taylor Swift is strong. Monthly listener counts fluctuate, and current trends suggest he may not lead this month.”

Will SpaceX have exactly 14 launches in April?

Apr 20 · Ends 2026-04-30

“SpaceX's launch schedule is variable, often exceeding or falling short of exact numbers. 14 is a specific target, making it unlikely given typical fluctuations in launch schedules.”

Will April 2026 be the 4th or lower hottest on record?

Apr 20 · Ends 2026-05-10

“Recent trends show increasing global temperatures, making it less likely for April 2026 to be the 4th or lower hottest. Climate change effects and recent records suggest a higher likelihood of it being among the top 3 hottest Aprils.”

Will Israel strike 2 countries in April 2026?

Apr 20 · Ends 2026-04-30

“Israel typically engages in targeted strikes rather than broad military actions involving multiple countries. No current conflicts suggest such escalation by April 2026.”

Will USD fall to 1.3M Iranian rials by April 30?

Apr 20 · Ends 2026-04-30

“The Iranian rial has been historically volatile, but a drastic drop to 1.3M per USD in such a short timeframe is unlikely without significant economic or geopolitical events. Current trends and economic conditions do not support such a rapid devaluation.”

Will Iran strike Azerbaijan by April 30, 2026?

Apr 20 · Ends 2026-04-30

“Iran-Azerbaijan tensions exist, but direct military action is unlikely due to diplomatic, economic, and regional stability concerns. No recent escalation suggests imminent conflict.”

Will Israel strike 3 countries in April 2026?

Apr 20 · Ends 2026-04-30

“Israel typically engages in targeted strikes, often limited to specific threats. Striking 3 countries in a single month is highly unusual and would likely require significant escalation or conflict, which is not currently indicated.”

Will Iran strike the United Kingdom by April 30, 2026?

Apr 20 · Ends 2026-04-30

“Iran has no strategic interest in striking the UK, which would provoke severe international backlash and potential military retaliation. Historical patterns show Iran avoids direct military conflict with Western nations.”

Will Israel strike ≥4 countries in April 2026?

Apr 20 · Ends 2026-04-30

“Israel typically engages in targeted strikes, often limited to specific threats. Striking ≥4 countries in a single month would be unprecedented and likely provoke significant international backlash, making it improbable.”

Will 4–5 ships be successfully targeted by Iran by April 30?

Apr 20 · Ends 2026-04-30

“Iran has historically targeted ships, but 4-5 successful attacks in a short timeframe is unlikely given international monitoring and defense measures. No recent escalation suggests such a high number by April 30.”

Will Iran strike Pakistan by April 30, 2026?

Apr 20 · Ends 2026-04-30

“Iran and Pakistan have historically maintained diplomatic relations despite occasional tensions. There is no significant recent escalation or indication of imminent military conflict between the two nations.”

Will Iran strike France by April 30, 2026?

Apr 20 · Ends 2026-04-30

“Iran has no recent history of direct military action against European countries. Diplomatic and economic repercussions make such an action unlikely. Current geopolitical tensions do not suggest an imminent threat to France from Iran.”

Will Iran strike Oman by April 30, 2026?

Apr 20 · Ends 2026-04-30

“Iran has no significant historical conflict with Oman, and both countries have maintained diplomatic relations. A military strike is unlikely given the current geopolitical climate and lack of strategic benefit for Iran.”

Will Iran strike Lebanon by April 30, 2026?

Apr 20 · Ends 2026-04-30

“Iran has historically avoided direct military action against Lebanon. Current geopolitical dynamics and alliances make such a strike unlikely. No recent escalations suggest an imminent threat.”

Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?

Apr 20 · Ends 2026-04-30

“Iran has historically avoided direct military action against Bahrain due to geopolitical risks and international repercussions. Current tensions do not suggest an imminent strike within the next 10 days.”

Will Iran strike Poland by April 30, 2026?

Apr 20 · Ends 2026-04-30

“Iran has no strategic interest in striking Poland, a NATO member, which would provoke a strong international response. No current tensions suggest such an action. Highly unlikely scenario.”

Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?

Apr 20 · Ends 2026-04-30

“The Strait of Hormuz is a major shipping route with high daily traffic. Given historical data and its strategic importance, it's likely that 80 ships could transit in a single day by the end of April.”

Will Kanye West have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?

Apr 20 · Ends 2026-04-30

“Kanye West is a popular artist, but artists like Drake and Taylor Swift typically have higher monthly Spotify listeners. Current trends and past data suggest it's unlikely he will top the list this month.”

Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?

Apr 20 · Ends 2026-04-30

“The Strait of Hormuz is a major oil transit chokepoint. Historically, it sees significant daily traffic, often exceeding 40 ships. Given its strategic importance, it's likely that at least one day will see 40 ships by the end of April.”

Will The Weeknd have the second-greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?

Apr 20 · Ends 2026-04-30

“The Weeknd is a top artist but faces strong competition from others like Taylor Swift and Bad Bunny. Monthly listener counts fluctuate, and being second is challenging. Current trends suggest it's less likely he'll hold the second spot this month.”

Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?

Apr 20 · Ends 2026-04-30

“The Strait of Hormuz is a major oil transit chokepoint, typically seeing more than 10 daily transits. It is unlikely to drop to 0-10 without significant geopolitical disruption, which is not indicated at this time.”

Will Bruno Mars have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?

Apr 20 · Ends 2026-04-30

“Bruno Mars is popular, but artists like Bad Bunny, Taylor Swift, and The Weeknd often have higher monthly listeners. Current trends and recent releases favor other artists for the top spot.”

Will Drake have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?

Apr 20 · Ends 2026-04-30

“Drake is a top artist but faces strong competition from others like Taylor Swift and Bad Bunny. Monthly listener counts fluctuate with new releases and trends. Without specific release info, it's less likely he'll top the list this month.”

Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?

Apr 20 · Ends 2026-04-30

“The Strait of Hormuz is a major shipping route with high daily traffic. It is highly likely that at least 20 ships will transit on any given day by the end of April.”

Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?

Apr 20 · Ends 2026-04-30

“The Strait of Hormuz is a critical chokepoint for global oil transport, with typically high daily traffic. Historical data suggests that 60 ships transiting in a day is plausible, especially given geopolitical tensions or increased demand.”

Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?

Apr 20 · Ends 2026-04-30

“The Strait of Hormuz is a critical oil transit route with historically high traffic. Current geopolitical stability and demand suggest a high likelihood of maintaining or exceeding 60 daily transits by the end of April.”

Will Emily Flippen win Survivor Season 50?

Apr 20 · Ends 2026-05-20

“Survivor winners are hard to predict due to the game's social dynamics and strategic complexity. With many contestants, any single player's chance is low unless they show dominant gameplay, which is not specified here.”

Will Angelina Keeley win Survivor Season 50?

Apr 20 · Ends 2026-05-20

“Survivor winners are difficult to predict due to the game's social and strategic complexity. With multiple contestants, the probability for any single player, like Angelina Keeley, is low unless there is strong evidence of her leading position.”

Will Colby Donaldson win Survivor Season 50?

Apr 20 · Ends 2026-05-20

“Colby Donaldson is a returning player from earlier seasons. While experienced, the probability of any single contestant winning is low due to the large number of competitors and unpredictable nature of the game.”

Will Tiffany Nicole Ervin win Survivor Season 50?

Apr 20 · Ends 2026-05-20

“Survivor winners are difficult to predict due to the game's social dynamics and strategic complexity. With many competitors and variables, any single contestant has a low probability of winning unless there is strong evidence or spoilers suggesting otherwise.”

Will Genevieve Mushaluk win Survivor Season 50?

Apr 20 · Ends 2026-05-20

“Survivor winners are difficult to predict due to numerous variables. With many contestants and strategic gameplay, any single contestant has a low probability of winning unless there is strong evidence or spoilers suggesting otherwise.”

Will Benjamin "Coach" Wade win Survivor Season 50?

Apr 20 · Ends 2026-05-20

“Winning Survivor is highly competitive with many variables. Past performance and current dynamics suggest a low probability for any single contestant, including Benjamin Wade, to win.”

Will Quintavius "Q" Burdette win Survivor Season 50?

Apr 20 · Ends 2026-05-20

“Survivor winners are difficult to predict due to numerous variables and strategic gameplay. With multiple contestants and unknown dynamics, individual chances are low. Typical probability for any single contestant winning is around 0.05 to 0.10, adjusted slightly higher if Q has ”

Will Chrissy Hofbeck win Survivor Season 50?

Apr 20 · Ends 2026-05-20

“Survivor winners are difficult to predict due to the game's social dynamics and strategic complexity. Chrissy Hofbeck's past performance and current season dynamics suggest a low probability of winning.”

Will Homelander die in "The Boys: Season 5"?

Apr 20 · Ends 2026-05-20

“Homelander is a central character in 'The Boys,' and killing him off would significantly alter the show's dynamics. While possible, it's more likely the show will keep him alive for continued tension and plot development.”

Will Mother's Milk die in "The Boys: Season 5"?

Apr 20 · Ends 2026-05-20

“Mother's Milk is a key character with strong fan support. While 'The Boys' is known for unexpected deaths, killing him might disrupt the narrative balance. Thus, the probability of his death is relatively low.”

Will Jenna Lewis-Dougherty win Survivor Season 50?

Apr 20 · Ends 2026-05-20

“Survivor winners are difficult to predict due to the game's social dynamics and strategic complexity. Without specific information about Jenna's gameplay or alliances, the probability is low, as there are typically many competitors.”

Will Cirie Fields win Survivor Season 50?

Apr 20 · Ends 2026-05-20

“Cirie Fields is a strong player but has historically faced challenges in reaching the final. Given the competitive nature and unpredictability of Survivor, her chances are relatively low at this late stage.”

Will Stephenie LaGrossa Kendrick win Survivor Season 50?

Apr 20 · Ends 2026-05-20

“Survivor winners are hard to predict due to many variables. Stephenie LaGrossa Kendrick is a returning player, which can be an advantage, but the competition is fierce and unpredictable. Historically, individual chances are low in a large contestant pool.”

Will Aubry Bracco win Survivor Season 50?

Apr 20 · Ends 2026-05-20

“Survivor winners are difficult to predict due to the game's social dynamics. Aubry Bracco is a returning player, which can be a disadvantage. Without specific insider information, the probability remains low.”

Will Rick Devens win Survivor Season 50?

Apr 20 · Ends 2026-05-20

“Survivor winners are hard to predict due to the game's social dynamics and strategic complexity. With many competitors, any single player's chance is low unless there's strong evidence of their dominance or popularity, which isn't provided here.”

Will Mike White win Survivor Season 50?

Apr 20 · Ends 2026-05-20

“Survivor typically has 16-20 contestants, making individual win probability low. Mike White, having already competed, may face biases. Without specific insider info, his chances remain slim.”

Will Rizo Velovic win Survivor Season 50?

Apr 20 · Ends 2026-05-20

“Survivor winners are hard to predict due to the game's social dynamics and strategic complexity. With multiple contestants, any single player's chance is typically low unless they have a strong, visible advantage, which is not specified here.”

Will Dee Valladares win Survivor Season 50?

Apr 20 · Ends 2026-05-20

“Survivor outcomes are highly unpredictable due to social dynamics, alliances, and challenges. With multiple contestants, individual win probability is typically low unless there is strong insider information or clear dominance, which is not provided here.”

Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2025–2026 NHL Presidents' Trophy?

Apr 20 · Ends 2026-04-20✓ CorrectBrier: 0.003

“The Presidents' Trophy is awarded to the team with the most points in the regular season. Given the competitive nature of the NHL and the Canadiens' recent performance history, it's unlikely they will win it this season.”

Will Independiente Medellín win on 2026-04-19?

Apr 20 · Ends 2026-04-20✗ WrongBrier: 0.980

“The resolution date has passed, indicating the event outcome is already determined. Without specific match results, the probability of predicting a win is minimal.”

Will there be at least 1950 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?

Apr 20 · Ends 2026-04-30✗ WrongBrier: 0.563

“Measles cases have been rising due to vaccine hesitancy and recent outbreaks. With only 10 days left and current trends, reaching 1950 cases by April 30, 2026, is likely.”

Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?

Apr 20 · Ends 2026-04-30✗ WrongBrier: 0.563

“Measles cases have been rising due to vaccine hesitancy and outbreaks. With only 10 days left, reaching 2000 cases is plausible given current trends and past data.”

Will there be at least 1800 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?

Apr 20 · Ends 2026-04-30

“Measles cases have been rising due to vaccine hesitancy and outbreaks. With only 10 days left, reaching 1800 cases is plausible if current trends continue.”

Will there be at least 1900 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?

Apr 20 · Ends 2026-04-30✗ WrongBrier: 0.563

“Measles cases have been rising due to vaccine hesitancy and outbreaks. With only 10 days left, reaching 1900 cases is likely if current trends continue.”

Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025–2026 NHL Presidents' Trophy?

Apr 20 · Ends 2026-04-20✓ CorrectBrier: 0.003

“The Presidents' Trophy is awarded to the NHL team with the best regular season record. Given the competitive nature of the league and the number of teams, any single team's probability is low unless they are a dominant force, which is not indicated for the Blues.”

Will Brad Marchand win the 2025–2026 NHL Art Ross Trophy?

Apr 20 · Ends 2026-04-20✓ CorrectBrier: 0.003

“Brad Marchand is a talented player, but given his age and the presence of younger, high-scoring players in the league, it's unlikely he will win the Art Ross Trophy this season.”

Will the Utah Mammoth win the 2025–2026 NHL Presidents' Trophy?

Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-20✓ CorrectBrier: 0.003

“The Presidents' Trophy is awarded to the NHL team with the most points in the regular season. Given the date, the standings are likely known, and if Utah Mammoth were leading, it would be widely reported. Thus, a low probability suggests they are not leading.”

Will Inter Kashi FC win on 2026-04-20?

Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-20✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203

“Without specific team performance data, recent form, or opponent information, estimating a win is challenging. Assuming average league conditions, the probability is slightly below 50%.”

Will the Detroit Red Wings win the 2025–2026 NHL Presidents' Trophy?

Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-20✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022

“The Presidents' Trophy is highly competitive, with many strong teams. The Red Wings have shown improvement but are not top contenders this season based on current standings and performance metrics.”

Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in April 2026?

Apr 19 · Ends 2026-05-10

“Global temperature changes are influenced by many factors and predicting a specific range is difficult. Historical data shows variability, making a precise prediction less likely.”

Will Punjab FC win on 2026-04-20?

Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-20✗ WrongBrier: 0.302

“Without specific team performance data or opponent information, estimating a win is challenging. Assuming average league conditions, a slight edge is given to the opponent or a draw, leading to a probability below 0.50 for Punjab FC winning.”

Will FC Midtjylland win on 2026-04-20?

Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-20✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203

“FC Midtjylland has a strong track record and home advantage. Recent form and head-to-head stats slightly favor them over AGF.”

Will Aarhus GF win on 2026-04-20?

Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-20✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203

“Without specific information on team form, injuries, or opponent strength, estimating a slight disadvantage for Aarhus GF based on typical league standings and historical performance.”

Will global temperature increase by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in April 2026?

Apr 19 · Ends 2026-05-10

“Temperature projections are uncertain and depend on various factors. Given the narrow range and typical variability, it's less likely to precisely hit this range. Historical data suggests broader ranges are more probable.”

Will Alianza FC win on 2026-04-19?

Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-20✗ WrongBrier: 0.302

“Alianza FC's recent performance and home advantage slightly favor a win. However, without specific opponent data, the probability remains moderate.”

Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in April 2026?

Apr 19 · Ends 2026-05-10

“Global temperature changes are influenced by many factors and predicting a specific range is challenging. Historical data shows variability, and while warming trends exist, pinpointing to a narrow range like 1.10ºC to 1.14ºC is uncertain.”

Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in April 2026?

Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203

“Given the current geopolitical climate and recent tensions between the US and China, a meeting in the next few weeks seems unlikely without prior announcements or indications.”

Will global temperature increase by less than 1.10ºC in April 2026?

Apr 19 · Ends 2026-05-10

“Given current trends in global warming and climate change, it is unlikely that the temperature increase will be limited to less than 1.10ºC by April 2026. Historical data shows consistent warming patterns exceeding this threshold.”

Will Trump talk to Yoon Suk Yeol in April?

Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203

“Given Trump's unpredictable communication patterns and lack of recent publicized interactions with Yoon, there's a moderate chance but not enough to predict a YES confidently.”

Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in April?

Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203

“Given the current geopolitical tensions and Trump's unpredictable communication patterns, it's slightly less likely he will talk to Xi Jinping in the remaining days of April.”

U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 30?

Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-30✗ WrongBrier: 0.723

“Seizure of oil tankers by U.S. forces is rare and typically occurs under specific geopolitical tensions. No recent major incidents suggest an imminent seizure, making it unlikely by April 30.”

Will Punjab FC vs. Inter Kashi FC end in a draw?

Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-20✓ CorrectBrier: 0.078

“Draws are less common in football matches. Considering team form, league averages, and historical data, a draw is less likely than a win for either team.”

Will FC Midtjylland vs. Aarhus GF end in a draw?

Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-20✓ CorrectBrier: 0.078

“Historically, FC Midtjylland and Aarhus GF matches have a low draw rate. Considering current form and league standings, a draw is less likely.”

Will Alianza FC vs. Independiente Medellín end in a draw?

Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-20✓ CorrectBrier: 0.078

“Draws are less common in football matches. Considering team strengths and typical outcomes, a draw is less likely than a win for either side.”

Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in April 2026?

Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022

“No recent reports or announcements suggest a planned meeting between Trump and Kim Jong Un in April 2026. Diplomatic relations have been relatively quiet, reducing the likelihood of a sudden meeting within the next 11 days.”

Will Nico Hischier win the 2025–2026 NHL Art Ross Trophy?

Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-20✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022

“Nico Hischier is a talented player, but historically, the Art Ross Trophy is often won by players with higher scoring profiles. Given current standings and competition from other top scorers, his chances are relatively low.”

Will Ukraine re-enter Rodynske by April 30?

Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.063

“Given the current date is close to the deadline and considering Ukraine's ongoing military efforts, it's likely they will re-enter Rodynske by April 30. Recent military advancements and strategic importance of the area support this probability.”

Will Mathew Barzal win the 2025–2026 NHL Art Ross Trophy?

Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-20✓ CorrectBrier: 0.010

“The Art Ross Trophy is highly competitive, typically won by top scorers like McDavid or Draisaitl. Barzal is talented but hasn't consistently been among the top point leaders in recent seasons, making it unlikely he'll win this year.”

Will the New York Islanders win the 2025–2026 NHL Presidents' Trophy?

Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-20✓ CorrectBrier: 0.010

“The Presidents' Trophy is awarded to the team with the most points in the regular season. Given the competitive nature of the NHL and the Islanders' historical performance, it's unlikely they will win it this season.”

Will Jordan strike Iran by April 30?

Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.003

“Jordan has historically maintained a neutral stance and focuses on regional stability. There are no current tensions or alliances suggesting an imminent strike on Iran.”

Will Oman strike Iran by April 30?

Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.003

“Oman has historically maintained a neutral stance and diplomatic relations with Iran. There is no recent indication of military tensions or intentions from Oman towards Iran.”

Will Qatar strike Iran by April 30?

Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.003

“Qatar has historically maintained diplomatic relations with Iran and is unlikely to engage in military action. No recent escalations suggest a change in this stance.”

Will Russia enter Vasylivka by April 30, 2026?

Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203

“Considering the current geopolitical situation and military dynamics, Russia entering Vasylivka by April 30, 2026, seems less likely. However, the situation is fluid, and developments could change rapidly.”

Will Iran strike Ras Tanura by April 30?

Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022

“Iran has historically avoided direct attacks on major oil facilities like Ras Tanura due to potential severe geopolitical and military repercussions. Current tensions do not suggest an imminent strike within the next 11 days.”

Will Iran strike Ras Laffan Industrial City again by April 30?

Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.063

“Iran's strategic interests and international pressure make repeated strikes unlikely. No recent escalation signals or threats suggest an imminent attack before April 30.”

Will Canada strike Iran by April 30?

Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.003

“Canada is not known for initiating military strikes, especially against Iran. There is no recent history or indication of Canada planning such an action. Diplomatic and peaceful approaches are more aligned with Canada's foreign policy.”

Will Iran strike Al Zour Refinery by April 30?

Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.063

“Iran has historically avoided direct strikes on major infrastructure to prevent escalation. No recent intelligence suggests an imminent attack on Al Zour Refinery by April 30.”

Will Iran strike Abqaiq oil processing facility by April 30?

Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022

“Iran has historically avoided direct attacks on major oil facilities due to potential severe international repercussions and escalation risks. No recent escalations suggest a change in this pattern by April 30.”

Will Iran strike Ruwais Refinery by April 30?

Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022

“Iran has historically avoided direct attacks on major oil infrastructure due to potential for severe geopolitical repercussions. No recent escalations suggest an imminent strike on Ruwais Refinery by April 30.”

Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by April 30, 2026?

Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203

“With only 11 days left and no significant military movements reported, the likelihood of Russia entering Novooleksandrivka by April 30, 2026, seems low. Current geopolitical tensions and military strategies do not indicate imminent action.”

Will any E.U. country strike Iran by April 30?

Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.003

“E.U. countries typically prefer diplomatic solutions and multilateral approaches. There is no current indication of imminent military action against Iran by any E.U. nation.”

Will Iran strike Habshan Field or any Processing Plants of the Habshan Complex by April 30?

Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022

“Iran typically avoids direct attacks on critical infrastructure due to potential severe international repercussions and escalation risks. Current geopolitical tensions do not strongly indicate an imminent strike on Habshan by April 30.”

Will Bahrain strike Iran by April 30?

Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.003

“Bahrain lacks the military capability and strategic interest to unilaterally strike Iran. Regional dynamics and alliances further reduce the likelihood of such an action.”

Will Turkey strike Iran by April 30?

Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.010

“Turkey and Iran have complex but generally non-hostile relations. No recent escalations suggest an imminent strike. Military action would be a significant shift in policy, unlikely without provocation or broader conflict.”

Will Germany strike Iran by April 30?

Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.003

“Germany is unlikely to unilaterally strike Iran due to its historical military restraint, diplomatic approach, and lack of direct conflict with Iran. No current tensions suggest such an action by April 30.”

Will France strike Iran by April 30?

Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.003

“France is unlikely to unilaterally strike Iran due to diplomatic ties, EU policies, and lack of recent precedent. Military action would likely involve multilateral efforts, not a solo French initiative.”

Will UK strike Iran by April 30?

Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.003

“The UK has historically been cautious about unilateral military action, especially against Iran. Diplomatic efforts and alliances typically take precedence. No current indicators suggest an imminent strike by the UK on Iran by April 30.”

Will Iran strike Dimona by April 30?

Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022

“Iran striking Dimona would be a significant escalation with severe geopolitical consequences. Historically, Iran has avoided direct attacks on Israeli nuclear facilities. Current tensions do not suggest an imminent strike within the next 11 days.”

Will Alex Tuch win the 2025–2026 NHL Art Ross Trophy?

Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-20✓ CorrectBrier: 0.010

“The Art Ross Trophy is awarded to the NHL's top point scorer. While Alex Tuch is a talented player, historically, this award is often won by players like Connor McDavid or Leon Draisaitl. Tuch has not been a top contender in previous seasons.”

Will Mark Stone win the 2025–2026 NHL Art Ross Trophy?

Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-20✓ CorrectBrier: 0.010

“Mark Stone is a talented player but not typically a top contender for the Art Ross Trophy, which is usually won by players with higher point totals like McDavid or Draisaitl. Given historical performance, his chances are low.”

Will David Pastrnak win the 2025–2026 NHL Art Ross Trophy?

Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-20✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022

“Pastrnak is a top player but faces strong competition from other elite scorers like McDavid and Matthews. The Art Ross Trophy is highly competitive, and predicting a single winner is challenging.”

Will Dylan Larkin win the 2025–2026 NHL Art Ross Trophy?

Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-20✓ CorrectBrier: 0.010

“Dylan Larkin is a talented player but historically, the Art Ross Trophy is often won by players like Connor McDavid or Leon Draisaitl. Larkin's past performance does not strongly indicate he will outscore top contenders.”

Will Clayton Keller win the 2025–2026 NHL Art Ross Trophy?

Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-20✓ CorrectBrier: 0.010

“Clayton Keller is a talented player but historically not a top contender for the Art Ross Trophy, which is often won by players like Connor McDavid or Leon Draisaitl. Given the competition, his chances are relatively low.”

Will Tage Thompson win the 2025–2026 NHL Art Ross Trophy?

Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-20✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022

“The Art Ross Trophy is highly competitive, with many top players contending. While Tage Thompson is talented, the probability of any single player winning is low due to the number of strong competitors.”

Will Andrei Svechnikov win the 2025–2026 NHL Art Ross Trophy?

Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-20✓ CorrectBrier: 0.010

“The Art Ross Trophy is highly competitive, typically won by top scorers like Connor McDavid. Svechnikov is talented but hasn't shown consistent top-tier scoring to be a favorite. It's unlikely he'll surpass other elite players this season.”

Will Dylan Strome win the 2025–2026 NHL Art Ross Trophy?

Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-20✓ CorrectBrier: 0.003

“Dylan Strome is a talented player but not typically among the top contenders for the Art Ross Trophy, which is usually won by players like Connor McDavid or Leon Draisaitl. Given historical performance and competition, his chances are low.”

Will Welsh Conservatives win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd election?

Apr 19 · Ends 2026-05-07✓ CorrectBrier: 0.090

“Historically, Welsh Labour has been dominant in Senedd elections. Current polling and political trends suggest Labour is likely to maintain its lead, making it unlikely for Conservatives to win the most seats.”

Will Tommy Tuberville win the 2026 Alabama Governor Republican primary election?

Apr 19 · Ends 2026-05-19

“Tommy Tuberville has strong name recognition and political experience as a U.S. Senator. Alabama's political landscape favors incumbents and well-known figures, increasing his chances in the Republican primary.”

Will Christine Drazan win the 2026 Oregon Governor Republican primary election?

Apr 19 · Ends 2026-05-19

“Christine Drazan has strong name recognition and previous political experience in Oregon, which gives her an edge in the primary. However, the outcome is uncertain due to potential challengers and changing political dynamics.”

Will Nicole Lee Ethington be the Republican nominee for KY-04?

Apr 19 · Ends 2026-05-19

“Without specific information on Nicole Lee Ethington's campaign strength, endorsements, or polling data, it's difficult to assume she is the frontrunner. Typically, incumbents or well-known figures have an advantage in primaries.”

Will Jason Esteves win the 2026 Georgia Governor Democratic primary election?

Apr 19 · Ends 2026-05-19

“Jason Esteves is a known figure but lacks statewide recognition compared to other potential candidates. Without significant endorsements or polling leads, his chances are lower.”

Will Keisha Lance Bottoms win the 2026 Georgia Governor Democratic primary election?

Apr 19 · Ends 2026-05-19

“Keisha Lance Bottoms has strong political experience as former Atlanta mayor, but competition in the Democratic primary is expected to be strong with other prominent candidates. Current polls and endorsements suggest a competitive race.”

Will David Burch be the Republican nominee for Senate in Oregon?

Apr 19 · Ends 2026-05-19

“David Burch is not a well-known figure in Oregon politics, and there are likely more prominent candidates with better name recognition and support. The Republican primary field is competitive, reducing his chances of securing the nomination.”

Will Geoff Duncan win the 2026 Georgia Governor Democratic primary election?

Apr 19 · Ends 2026-05-19

“Geoff Duncan is a Republican, not a Democrat, making it highly unlikely he would win the Democratic primary.”

Will Morgan Murphy be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama?

Apr 19 · Ends 2026-05-19

“Morgan Murphy is not a widely recognized political figure in Alabama, and the Republican primary often favors established candidates with strong party backing. Without significant endorsements or polling leads, her chances are relatively low.”

Will Doug Jones win the 2026 Alabama Governor Democratic primary election?

Apr 19 · Ends 2026-05-19

“Doug Jones is a well-known figure in Alabama politics, but the Democratic primary can be competitive. Without current polling data or strong indications of his lead, his chances are uncertain.”

Will Stephen Heidt win the 2026 Idaho Governor Democratic primary election?

Apr 19 · Ends 2026-05-19

“Stephen Heidt's chances depend on his political influence, campaign strength, and voter support. Without significant public endorsements or a strong campaign presence, his probability of winning is lower than 50%.”

Will Chris Carr win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary election?

Apr 19 · Ends 2026-05-19

“Chris Carr is a known political figure in Georgia with a strong Republican base. While there are other contenders, his current standing and recognition give him a slight edge in the primary race.”

Will Andrew Shelley be the Republican nominee for Senate in Kentucky?

Apr 19 · Ends 2026-05-19

“Andrew Shelley is not a widely recognized name in Kentucky politics. Without significant media coverage or endorsements, his chances of securing the nomination are lower compared to more established candidates.”

Will Terri Pickens win the 2026 Idaho Governor Democratic primary election?

Apr 19 · Ends 2026-05-19

“Without specific polling data or information on Terri Pickens' campaign strength, it's challenging to predict a win. Idaho is a Republican stronghold, and Democratic primaries often have less visibility, making outcomes less predictable.”

Will Ruwa Romman win the 2026 Georgia Governor Democratic primary election?

Apr 19 · Ends 2026-05-19

“Ruwa Romman's political profile is growing, but she faces strong competition from established candidates in the Democratic primary. Without significant polling data or endorsements indicating a lead, her chances remain moderate but not leading.”

Will Gregg Kirkpatrick win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary election?

Apr 19 · Ends 2026-05-19

“Without specific information on Gregg Kirkpatrick's campaign, polling data, or political endorsements, it's challenging to predict a win. Georgia's political landscape is competitive, and incumbents or well-known figures often have an advantage.”

Will Brad Raffensperger win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary election?

Apr 19 · Ends 2026-05-19

“Raffensperger is a known figure but may face strong competition from more conservative candidates in Georgia's political climate. His moderate stance could be a disadvantage in a Republican primary.”

Will Earl Carter be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia?

Apr 19 · Ends 2026-05-19

“Earl Carter is not a widely recognized figure in Georgia politics compared to other potential candidates. With only a month until the primary, it's unlikely he has gained significant traction or support to secure the nomination.”

Will Burt Jones win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary election?

Apr 19 · Ends 2026-05-19

“Burt Jones has strong name recognition and political backing in Georgia. With a month to go, he is leading in recent polls, though the race remains competitive.”

Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?

Apr 19 · Ends 2026-05-19

“Thomas Massie is an incumbent with strong support in KY-04, known for his libertarian stance and alignment with district values. Incumbents generally have an advantage unless facing significant opposition, which is not evident here.”

Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?

Apr 19 · Ends 2026-05-19

“Without specific information on Ed Gallrein's campaign strength, endorsements, or polling data, it's difficult to assess his chances. Generally, incumbents or well-known figures have an advantage, so unless Gallrein fits this profile, his chances are lower.”

Will Jordan Kyrou win the 2025–2026 NHL Art Ross Trophy?

Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-20✓ CorrectBrier: 0.010

“The Art Ross Trophy is highly competitive, typically won by top-tier players. While Kyrou is talented, players like McDavid and Draisaitl are strong contenders. No significant indicators suggest Kyrou is leading the scoring race this season.”

Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2025–2026 NHL Presidents' Trophy?

Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-20✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022

“The Presidents' Trophy is highly competitive, with many strong teams. The Sabres have shown improvement but are not leading the standings as of the current date, making it unlikely they will win the trophy this season.”

Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2025–2026 NHL Presidents' Trophy?

Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-20✓ CorrectBrier: 0.010

“The Presidents' Trophy is highly competitive, with many strong teams. Without specific dominance or current standings info, the probability for any single team, like the Minnesota Wild, is low.”

Will Nazem Kadri win the 2025–2026 NHL Art Ross Trophy?

Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-20✓ CorrectBrier: 0.003

“Kadri is a talented player but not typically a top contender for the Art Ross Trophy, which is usually won by players with higher point totals like McDavid or Draisaitl. Given historical performance and competition, his chances are low.”

Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2025–2026 NHL Presidents' Trophy?

Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-20✓ CorrectBrier: 0.010

“The Presidents' Trophy is awarded to the NHL team with the most points in the regular season. With only one day left, if Tampa Bay hasn't secured the top spot yet, it's unlikely they will win it, assuming they are not currently leading.”

Will the San Jose Sharks win the 2025–2026 NHL Presidents' Trophy?

Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-20✓ CorrectBrier: 0.010

“The Presidents' Trophy is awarded to the team with the most points in the regular season. The San Jose Sharks have not been top contenders recently, and the competition is strong, making it unlikely they will win this season.”

Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2025–2026 NHL Presidents' Trophy?

Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-20✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122

“The Presidents' Trophy is highly competitive with many strong teams. As of the day before the resolution, the Hurricanes' chances depend on their current standing and competition, but generally, no single team has a high probability this late in the season.”

Will the New York Rangers win the 2025–2026 NHL Presidents' Trophy?

Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-20✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203

“The Presidents' Trophy is highly competitive, with many strong teams in the league. The Rangers are a strong team, but given the uncertainty and competition, their chances are slightly below 50%.”

Will the match end in a draw?

Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-25✓ CorrectBrier: 0.078

“Given the competitive nature of rugby matches and the likelihood of one team outperforming the other, draws are relatively rare in rugby. Historical data and team performance suggest a lower probability of a draw.”

Will Greece be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?

Apr 19 · Ends 2026-05-16

“Greece has historically had mixed results in Eurovision. Recent trends and competition from other countries make a top 3 finish unlikely. Without specific information on their 2026 entry, the probability remains low.”

Will Ukraine be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?

Apr 19 · Ends 2026-05-16

“Ukraine has strong recent performances, but winning the jury vote depends on song quality and competition. Without specific song details, a win is uncertain. Historically, jury votes are unpredictable.”

Will Jeremiyah Love be the second pick in the 2026 NFL draft?

Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-23✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022

“The NFL draft is highly unpredictable, and being the second pick depends on team needs, player performance, and other prospects. Without specific standout indicators for Jeremiyah Love, the probability is low.”

Will FC Dallas win on 2026-04-18?

Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-19✓ CorrectBrier: 0.000

“The current date is after the match date, indicating the event has already occurred. Therefore, the probability of predicting the outcome is irrelevant as it is already determined.”

Will FC Dallas vs. Los Angeles Galaxy end in a draw?

Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-19✗ WrongBrier: 0.563

“MLS matches historically have a lower draw rate compared to other leagues. Considering team performance trends and typical scoring patterns, a draw is less likely.”

Will Minnesota United FC vs. Portland Timbers end in a draw?

Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-19✓ CorrectBrier: 0.078

“MLS matches historically have a lower draw rate compared to other leagues. Considering team form and average league draw rates, a draw is less likely.”

Will Los Angeles Galaxy win on 2026-04-18?

Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-19✓ CorrectBrier: 0.000

“The current date is after the resolution date, so the outcome is already determined. Without specific match results, the probability of a YES is minimal.”

Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win the most seats in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?

Apr 18 · Ends 2026-04-19✗ WrongBrier: 0.422

“PB is a relatively new party with growing influence, but traditionally established parties have stronger bases. Current polls and political dynamics suggest they are unlikely to win the most seats in 2026.”

Will Krum Zarkov be the next prime minister of Bulgaria after the 2026 parliamentary election?

Apr 18 · Ends 2026-04-19

“Krum Zarkov is not a widely recognized political figure in Bulgaria as of the last known data. Without significant political backing or public support, his chances of becoming the next prime minister are relatively low.”

Will Isack Hadjar finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Bahrain Grand Prix?

Apr 18 · Ends 2026-04-19✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022

“Isack Hadjar is a talented driver but not consistently a top contender in F1. Podium finishes are rare for mid-tier drivers, and without specific recent performance data indicating a strong showing, the probability remains low.”

Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets in April 2026?

Apr 18 · Ends 2026-05-01✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122

“Elon Musk's tweeting frequency is variable, but averaging around 30-40 tweets per week. 540-559 in a month is high, making it unlikely. Historical data suggests lower monthly totals.”

Will Real Salt Lake win on 2026-04-18?

Apr 18 · Ends 2026-04-19✗ WrongBrier: 0.302

“Without specific details on team form, injuries, or opponent strength, estimating a slight disadvantage for RSL based on typical home/away performance and league parity.”

Will Minnesota United FC win on 2026-04-18?

Apr 18 · Ends 2026-04-19✗ WrongBrier: 0.302

“Without specific team performance data for 2026, historical performance and typical home/away advantages suggest a close match, but not enough to favor Minnesota United FC winning.”

Will Deportivo Toluca FC win on 2026-04-18?

Apr 18 · Ends 2026-04-19✗ WrongBrier: 0.302

“Toluca's recent form and home advantage slightly favor them. However, without specific opponent information, the probability remains close to even.”

Will Rosen Zhelyazkov be the next prime minister of Bulgaria after the 2026 parliamentary election?

Apr 18 · Ends 2026-04-19

“Without specific polling data or political trends favoring Rosen Zhelyazkov, and given the competitive nature of Bulgarian politics, the probability of him becoming the next PM is relatively low.”

Will Racing 92 win?

Apr 18 · Ends 2026-04-25✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203

“Racing 92 is a strong team with a good track record. Assuming no major injuries or changes, they have a slight edge in their upcoming match.”

Will Khaman Maluach win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award?

Apr 18 · Ends 2026-05-18

“Winning NBA Rookie of the Year is highly competitive, with many talented players. Without specific standout performance data or media buzz for Khaman Maluach, the probability remains low.”

Will Jase Richardson win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award?

Apr 18 · Ends 2026-05-18

“Winning NBA Rookie of the Year is highly competitive, with many talented rookies each season. Without specific standout performance data or context favoring Jase Richardson, the probability remains low.”

Will V.J. Edgecombe win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award?

Apr 18 · Ends 2026-05-18

“Winning the NBA Rookie of the Year depends on performance, team success, and competition from other rookies. Without specific performance data or context on Edgecombe's season, it's less likely than not he will win, given the typical competitive field.”

Will Tre Johnson win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award?

Apr 18 · Ends 2026-05-18

“Winning Rookie of the Year depends on performance, team fit, and competition. With many talented rookies each year, the probability for any single player is low unless they are a standout favorite, which is not indicated for Tre Johnson at this time.”

Will Collin Murray-Boyles win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award?

Apr 18 · Ends 2026-05-18

“Winning NBA Rookie of the Year is highly competitive, with many factors like performance, team success, and media attention influencing the outcome. Without standout indicators or media buzz, the probability remains low for any specific player.”

Will Walter Clayton Jr. win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award?

Apr 18 · Ends 2026-05-18

“Winning Rookie of the Year is highly competitive, with many factors like performance, team success, and media attention. Without specific standout indicators for Clayton Jr., the probability remains low.”

Will Derik Queen win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award?

Apr 18 · Ends 2026-05-18

“Winning Rookie of the Year depends on performance, team impact, and competition. With many talented rookies each year, the probability for any single player is typically low unless they are a standout. No specific standout information on Derik Queen provided.”

Will Jeremiah Fears win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award?

Apr 18 · Ends 2026-05-18

“Winning Rookie of the Year depends on performance, competition, and media narrative. With many talented rookies each year, the probability for any single player is low unless they have standout performance or hype, which isn't indicated here.”

Will Dylan Harper win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award?

Apr 18 · Ends 2026-05-18

“While Dylan Harper may be a strong contender, the award is competitive and depends on performance, team success, and media narrative. Without specific data on his season performance, it's safer to assume a lower probability given the many variables involved.”

Will Cedric Coward win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award?

Apr 18 · Ends 2026-05-18

“Winning Rookie of the Year depends on performance, media attention, and competition. Without specific standout achievements or lack of strong competitors, the probability is lower than 50%.”

Will Kon Knueppel win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award?

Apr 18 · Ends 2026-05-18

“Winning NBA Rookie of the Year is highly competitive, with many factors like performance, team success, and media attention. Without specific standout indicators for Kon Knueppel, the probability remains low.”

Will Cooper Flagg win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award?

Apr 18 · Ends 2026-05-18

“While Cooper Flagg is a highly touted prospect, winning Rookie of the Year depends on his performance, competition, and team situation. With many variables and strong contenders, his chances are significant but not the majority.”

Will Oliver Bearman finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Bahrain Grand Prix?

Apr 18 · Ends 2026-04-19✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122

“Oliver Bearman's podium finish depends on his team's performance, his skill, and race conditions. As of 2023, he was a promising driver, but without current data on his 2026 performance or team status, a podium finish remains uncertain.”

Will Arvid Lindblad finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Bahrain Grand Prix?

Apr 18 · Ends 2026-04-19✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022

“Arvid Lindblad is a relatively new driver in F1 with limited experience. The competition is strong, and podium finishes are typically dominated by more established drivers and teams. Thus, the probability of a podium finish is low.”

Will Oscar Piastri finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Bahrain Grand Prix?

Apr 18 · Ends 2026-04-19✓ CorrectBrier: 0.063

“Podium finishes in F1 depend on car performance, driver skill, and race conditions. Piastri's past performance and team strength suggest a lower probability of a podium finish, given the competitive field.”

Will Delyan Peevski be the next prime minister of Bulgaria after the 2026 parliamentary election?

Apr 18 · Ends 2026-04-19

“Delyan Peevski, a controversial figure in Bulgarian politics, has faced significant opposition and scandals. His chances of becoming prime minister are low given the political climate and public sentiment.”

Will Nikolai Denkov be the next prime minister of Bulgaria after the 2026 parliamentary election?

Apr 18 · Ends 2026-04-19

“Political outcomes are uncertain; incumbents often face challenges. Without specific indicators of strong support or a clear path to victory, the probability is below 50%.”

Will Lewis Hamilton finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Bahrain Grand Prix?

Apr 18 · Ends 2026-04-19✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203

“Hamilton's performance depends on his car's competitiveness and current form. Given the unpredictability of F1 and potential competition from other top drivers, there's a moderate chance but not a majority likelihood of a podium finish.”

Will Nico Hulkenberg finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Bahrain Grand Prix?

Apr 18 · Ends 2026-04-19✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022

“Nico Hulkenberg has historically struggled to secure podium finishes in F1. Considering team performance and competition, a podium finish in Bahrain 2026 is unlikely.”

Will Carlos Sainz Jr. finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Bahrain Grand Prix?

Apr 18 · Ends 2026-04-19✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122

“Podium finishes depend on car performance, driver skill, and race conditions. Sainz is a skilled driver, but competition is strong and unpredictable. Without specific 2026 data, a podium finish is uncertain, hence a lower probability.”

Will Assen Vassilev be the next prime minister of Bulgaria after the 2026 parliamentary election?

Apr 18 · Ends 2026-04-19

“Assen Vassilev is a prominent figure, but political dynamics in Bulgaria are volatile. Without clear polling data or coalition support, his chances are uncertain, slightly favoring NO.”

Will MFK Karviná win on 2026-04-18?

Apr 18 · Ends 2026-04-18✗ WrongBrier: 0.302

“Without specific match details or team performance data, estimating a win for MFK Karviná is uncertain. Assuming average league performance, the probability of winning is slightly below 50%.”

Will Microsoft have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?

Apr 18 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203

“While Microsoft is a major player in AI, competitors like Google and OpenAI are also strong contenders. The AI landscape is highly competitive and dynamic, making it uncertain that Microsoft will have the best model by April 2026.”

Will FC Viktoria Plzeň vs. FK Pardubice end in a draw?

Apr 18 · Ends 2026-04-18✓ CorrectBrier: 0.078

“FC Viktoria Plzeň is generally stronger than FK Pardubice, and matches often result in a win for the stronger team. Historical data shows a lower draw rate in similar matchups.”

Will Yokohama F·Marinos vs. Kawasaki Frontale end in a draw?

Apr 18 · Ends 2026-04-18✓ CorrectBrier: 0.078

“Historically, matches between Yokohama F·Marinos and Kawasaki Frontale have a low draw rate. Both teams are strong and often play for a win, reducing the likelihood of a draw.”

Will 1. FC Slovácko win on 2026-04-18?

Apr 17 · Ends 2026-04-18✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203

“Without specific details on the opponent, current form, or injuries, estimating a win is challenging. Historically, 1. FC Slovácko has a moderate win rate, so a slight edge towards NO is reasonable.”

Will FC Hradec Králové vs. SK Slavia Praha end in a draw?

Apr 17 · Ends 2026-04-18✓ CorrectBrier: 0.078

“Slavia Praha is a stronger team with a higher likelihood of winning. Historical match data shows a low draw rate between these teams. Thus, a draw is less likely.”

Will AD Cali win on 2026-04-17?

Apr 17 · Ends 2026-04-18✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203

“Without specific information on AD Cali's current form, opponent, or match conditions, estimating their win probability is challenging. Assuming average league performance, the probability is slightly below 50%.”

Will Atlético San Luis win on 2026-04-17?

Apr 17 · Ends 2026-04-18✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203

“Without specific team performance data for 2026, general factors like historical performance, current league standing, and opponent strength suggest a slightly less than even chance for a win.”

Will Vancouver Whitecaps FC vs. Sporting Kansas City end in a draw?

Apr 17 · Ends 2026-04-18✓ CorrectBrier: 0.078

“MLS matches have a lower draw rate compared to wins/losses. Both teams have offensive strengths, reducing the likelihood of a draw. Historical data shows draws in less than 30% of their encounters.”

Will Vancouver Whitecaps FC win on 2026-04-17?

Apr 17 · Ends 2026-04-18✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203

“Vancouver Whitecaps FC's recent form and home advantage slightly favor them against Sporting Kansas City, though MLS matches can be unpredictable.”

Will SC Recife win on 2026-04-18?

Apr 17 · Ends 2026-04-18✗ WrongBrier: 0.302

“SC Recife's recent form and home advantage slightly favor them. Opponent's performance and league standing are average, giving Recife a slight edge.”

Will Shanghai Shenhua FC win on 2026-04-18?

Apr 17 · Ends 2026-04-18✗ WrongBrier: 0.302

“Without specific team performance data or opponent information, estimating a win is challenging. Historically, Shanghai Shenhua has a mixed record, so a slight edge towards NO is reasonable.”

Will FK Teplice win on 2026-04-18?

Apr 17 · Ends 2026-04-18✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203

“Without specific team performance data or opponent information, estimating a win for FK Teplice is uncertain. Typically, home advantage and recent form are key, but lacking these details, a slight edge to a NO outcome is reasonable.”

Will Club Necaxa vs. Tigres de la UANL end in a draw?

Apr 17 · Ends 2026-04-18✗ WrongBrier: 0.518

“Historically, Tigres has a strong record against Necaxa, often winning. Draws are less common in their matchups. Current form and squad strength also favor Tigres, reducing the likelihood of a draw.”

Will FK Pardubice win on 2026-04-18?

Apr 17 · Ends 2026-04-18✗ WrongBrier: 0.302

“Without specific team performance data or opponent information, estimating a win for FK Pardubice is uncertain. Assuming average league performance, a slight edge to NO is reasonable.”

Will Microsoft have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?

Apr 17 · Ends 2026-04-30✗ WrongBrier: 0.302

“Microsoft has been a major player in AI, with significant investments and partnerships, such as with OpenAI. Given their resources and focus on AI, they have a reasonable chance of leading in AI models, including those with style control features.”

Will Club Necaxa win on 2026-04-17?

Apr 17 · Ends 2026-04-18✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122

“Club Necaxa's performance in recent seasons and their current standing suggest they are underdogs against their opponent on this date.”

Will Sporting Kansas City win on 2026-04-17?

Apr 17 · Ends 2026-04-18✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203

“Without specific team performance data or opponent information, estimating SKC's win probability is challenging. Historically, home advantage and recent form are key, but lacking details, a slight underdog position is assumed.”

Will FC Slovan Liberec vs. FK Mladá Boleslav end in a draw?

Apr 17 · Ends 2026-04-18✗ WrongBrier: 0.518

“Historically, draws are less common in football matches. Both teams have shown a tendency to win or lose rather than draw in recent matches. Therefore, the likelihood of a draw is relatively low.”

Will Kashima Antlers vs. Urawa Red Diamonds end in a draw?

Apr 17 · Ends 2026-04-18✓ CorrectBrier: 0.078

“Historically, matches between Kashima Antlers and Urawa Red Diamonds have a lower draw rate. Both teams are competitive with strong attacking capabilities, reducing the likelihood of a draw.”

Will DeepSeek have the second best AI model at the end of April 2026?

Apr 17 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122

“DeepSeek is a strong contender but faces stiff competition from major players like OpenAI, Google, and Meta. Given the rapid advancements and resources of these companies, it's less likely DeepSeek will secure the second position by end of April 2026.”

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?

Apr 17 · Ends 2026-04-30

“The Bab el-Mandeb Strait is a crucial maritime chokepoint. Closure is rare due to significant global trade impact. No recent major conflicts or blockades suggest closure by May 31 is unlikely.”

Will FK Jablonec win on 2026-04-18?

Apr 17 · Ends 2026-04-18✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203

“FK Jablonec's performance, opponent strength, and current form suggest a slightly less than even chance of winning.”

Will FC Baník Ostrava vs. Bohemians Praha 1905 end in a draw?

Apr 17 · Ends 2026-04-18✓ CorrectBrier: 0.078

“Historically, draws are less common in football matches. Considering team performance and league statistics, the likelihood of a draw is lower than a win for either team.”

Will Urawa Red Diamonds win on 2026-04-18?

Apr 17 · Ends 2026-04-18✗ WrongBrier: 0.302

“Urawa Red Diamonds have a strong team and recent performance has been solid. They are playing at home, which gives them an advantage. However, the outcome is still uncertain due to the competitive nature of the league.”

Will the match end in a draw?

Apr 17 · Ends 2026-04-18✓ CorrectBrier: 0.090

“Most football matches do not end in a draw. Considering typical outcomes and lack of specific context, a draw is less likely than a win for either team.”

Will FC Zlín vs. FK Teplice end in a draw?

Apr 17 · Ends 2026-04-18✓ CorrectBrier: 0.078

“Draws are less common in football matches. Considering league averages and team performance, the probability of a draw is lower than a win for either team.”

Will Hurricanes win?

Apr 17 · Ends 2026-04-18✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203

“The Hurricanes have a strong team performance this season and a favorable matchup. Given the current date is close to the event, recent form and statistics slightly favor them.”

Will FC Hradec Králové win on 2026-04-18?

Apr 17 · Ends 2026-04-18✗ WrongBrier: 0.302

“Without specific information on team form, injuries, or opponent strength, estimating a slight underdog position for FC Hradec Králové based on typical league standings and historical performance.”

Will Chelsea win the 2025-2026 FA Cup?

Apr 17 · Ends 2026-05-16

“The FA Cup is highly competitive with many strong teams. Chelsea's probability of winning is low given the number of matches and potential opponents, despite their strong squad and resources.”

Will FC Slovan Liberec win on 2026-04-18?

Apr 17 · Ends 2026-04-18✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203

“Without specific team performance data, historical win rates, or opponent information, estimating a win is challenging. Assuming average league performance, the probability is slightly below 50%.”

Will SK Sigma Olomouc win on 2026-04-18?

Apr 17 · Ends 2026-04-18✗ WrongBrier: 0.302

“Without specific team performance data or opponent information, estimating a win is challenging. Assuming average league performance, the probability is slightly below 50%.”

Will Boyacá Chicó FC win on 2026-04-17?

Apr 17 · Ends 2026-04-18✗ WrongBrier: 0.302

“Without specific information on team form, opponent strength, or match location, estimating a slight underdog position for Boyacá Chicó FC based on typical league standings and historical performance.”

Will Kawasaki Frontale win on 2026-04-18?

Apr 17 · Ends 2026-04-18✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203

“Kawasaki Frontale is historically a strong team in the J-League. Assuming no major changes in team performance or injuries, they have a slightly better chance of winning.”

Will FC Zlín win on 2026-04-18?

Apr 17 · Ends 2026-04-18✗ WrongBrier: 0.302

“Without specific information on team form, injuries, or opponent strength, estimating a slight underdog position for FC Zlín based on typical league standings and historical performance.”

Will AC Sparta Praha win on 2026-04-18?

Apr 17 · Ends 2026-04-18✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122

“AC Sparta Praha is a strong team in the Czech league, often performing well. Given their historical performance and current form, they have a good chance of winning their match on 2026-04-18.”

Will Bohemians Praha 1905 win on 2026-04-18?

Apr 17 · Ends 2026-04-18✗ WrongBrier: 0.302

“Bohemians Praha 1905's performance this season has been inconsistent, and they are facing a strong opponent. Recent form and historical matchups suggest a slightly lower chance of winning.”

Will the match end in a draw?

Apr 17 · Ends 2026-04-18✓ CorrectBrier: 0.078

“Most football matches do not end in a draw. Without specific team information, historical data suggests a lower probability for a draw.”

Will Atlético San Luis vs. Pumas de la UNAM end in a draw?

Apr 17 · Ends 2026-04-18✓ CorrectBrier: 0.078

“Draws are less common in football matches. Considering team performance and league averages, the probability of a draw is lower than a win for either team.”

Will Kyōto Sanga FC win on 2026-04-18?

Apr 17 · Ends 2026-04-18✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203

“Without specific details on team form, opponent strength, or match location, estimating a win is challenging. Historical performance suggests a slightly lower chance of winning, hence a probability below 0.50.”

Will Moana Pasifika win?

Apr 17 · Ends 2026-04-18✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122

“Moana Pasifika has historically struggled in the Super Rugby Pacific competition. Given their past performance and current standings, they are less likely to win against stronger teams.”

Will V-Varen Nagasaki win on 2026-04-18?

Apr 17 · Ends 2026-04-18✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203