Will Iran strike Ruwais Refinery by April 30?

“Iran striking Ruwais Refinery (UAE) would be a massive escalation against a non-belligerent Gulf state. No credible intelligence or reporting suggests such an attack is imminent. Iran has historically avoided direct strikes on UAE infrastructure.”

“Direct Iranian strikes on major UAE infrastructure are rare and highly escalatory. No immediate, specific triggers are apparent for such a high-risk action within the short 11-day window.”

“Iran has historically avoided direct attacks on major oil infrastructure due to potential for severe geopolitical repercussions. No recent escalations suggest an imminent strike on Ruwais Refinery by April 30.”

“Direct strike on UAE's major refinery is a high-escalation move; Iran may prefer proxies or cyber attacks to avoid direct confrontation, making it unlikely by April 30.”