Will Larry Rhoden win the 2026 South Dakota Governor Republican primary election?

“As incumbent governor after Noem’s departure, Rhoden has strong establishment support and name recognition in a heavily GOP state. Primary risk remains from a stronger challenger, but incumbency makes him the favorite.”

“Larry Rhoden is the incumbent governor, having succeeded Kristi Noem. Incumbents rarely lose primaries, and no strong challenger has emerged.”

“Rhoden, as incumbent governor after Noem's departure, holds typical incumbency advantages in SD GOP primary, though primaries can be competitive without strong polling info.”

“As current Lieutenant Governor, Rhoden benefits from high name recognition and an established political network in an open primary for a term-limited governor, providing a significant advantage.”