Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026?

“Estonia has never won Eurovision as an independent nation (only 2001 with 2nd place). Recent entries have not been top contenders. Stronger countries like Sweden, Ukraine, Italy are more likely winners.”

“Eurovision has many contenders and any single country usually has a low base rate. Estonia is a plausible finalist but not a typical favorite, so its win chance is only a few percent.”

“Estonia's 'Espresso Macchiato' by Tommy Cash has been a strong contender in 2025 odds, but with ~37 countries competing and other favorites, winning probability remains modest even as a top contender.”