Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election

“Cho Kuk faces major legal/political headwinds and is not a clear frontrunner. Seoul mayoral races favor major-party nominees with strong organization; absent strong evidence of momentum, his win odds look low.”

“Cho Kuk leads in some polls but faces legal issues and strong conservative opposition in Seoul, a traditionally conservative-leaning city.”

“Cho Kuk faces legal issues and leads a minor party (Rebuilding Korea Party). He's unlikely to be the main opposition candidate, with DPK typically fielding its own. Low chance of winning Seoul mayoralty.”