Will Scottish Labour win the most seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliament election?

“Polls consistently show SNP leading in seat projections for 2026; Labour has not won most seats in Scotland since 2010.”

“On the eve of the vote, SNP remains the likeliest largest party in Scotland despite Labour gains. Holyrood’s electoral system also makes outright seat leads harder for challengers unless they clearly dominate constituency contests.”

“Polling through early 2026 has consistently shown SNP leading Labour, with Labour's late-2024 surge having faded. SNP likely to win most seats, though majority unlikely.”