Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election

“Incumbency and Oh Se-hoon’s strong profile in Seoul give him an edge, but South Korea’s volatile politics and possible anti-incumbent/national backlash keep this far from certain.”

“Incumbent Oh Se-hoon has strong name recognition and has won multiple Seoul mayoral races. However, political headwinds against the conservative PPP after recent national turmoil create real uncertainty, so probability is moderate.”

“Oh Se-hoon is the incumbent with strong name recognition and a conservative base. Seoul tends to lean conservative in mayoral races, and no major scandal has emerged. However, opposition could consolidate, keeping probability below 0.90.”