Will Welsh Conservatives win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd election?

“Welsh Conservatives have historically been third in Senedd elections. Despite UK-wide Labour struggles, Welsh Labour remains dominant. Reform UK splits right-wing vote. Plaid Cymru also competitive. Conservatives winning most seats would be unprecedented and unlikely.”

“Historically, Welsh Labour has been dominant in Senedd elections. Current polling and political trends suggest Labour is likely to maintain its lead, making it unlikely for Conservatives to win the most seats.”

“Welsh Conservatives have never won most seats historically; Labour dominates Welsh politics. Recent polling shows Labour leading significantly in Wales.”