Will UK GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 1.2% and 1.5%?

“A 1.2%–1.5% q/q UK GDP print would be unusually strong versus recent UK growth norms. Such a narrow high-growth band is unlikely absent a major rebound, so the chance is low.”

“UK GDP growth has been volatile; Q1 2026 data likely outside narrow 1.2-1.5% range given recent trends and uncertainty.”

“UK GDP growth has been modest; the 1.2-1.5% range is narrow (30bp window). Recent forecasts cluster around 1.0-1.4% YoY, but QoQ could be lower. Narrow band reduces likelihood despite plausibility.”