Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election

“Ahn is a known national figure but has weak recent electoral traction and unclear path in Seoul’s local race; incumbency/party dynamics and stronger rivals make his win plausible but unlikely.”

“Ahn Cheol-soo faces strong competition from major party candidates in Seoul, a traditionally liberal stronghold. Recent polls show him trailing, making a win less likely.”

“Ahn Cheol-soo is one of several potential candidates; he hasn't been confirmed as PPP nominee and Seoul has been competitive. Without strong indication he's leading the race, low probability.”