Will Lucas Leon win American Idol Season 24?

“With only days to resolution and no strong evidence Lucas Leon is the clear frontrunner, any single named contestant is usually a long shot in a multi-finalist vote. I assign a low but nontrivial chance.”

“Lucas Leon is a contestant but not a frontrunner; winner likely to be a stronger favorite. With only 2 days left, odds are low.”

“Without specific finale information, one of typically 3 finalists has ~33% base rate, but adjusting for uncertainty about whether Lucas Leon is even a finalist, lower probability is warranted.”