Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?

“Paxton has strong statewide name ID and deep support among Texas GOP primary voters, but Cornyn’s establishment backing and resources keep it close. Slight edge to Paxton in a polarized, Trump-aligned electorate.”

“Paxton is the incumbent with strong name recognition and Trump's endorsement, making him the clear frontrunner in the GOP primary.”

“Paxton has led Cornyn in primary polling by significant margins throughout the race, with strong support from Trump-aligned base. Incumbent Cornyn unpopular with GOP primary voters. Runoff possible but Paxton favored.”