Will Rick Caruso win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

“Caruso lost in 2022 to Bass. While dissatisfaction with Bass post-fires gives him an opening, incumbent advantage and Democratic lean of LA still favor Bass. Uncertain if Caruso is even officially running by May 2026.”

“Caruso has high name recognition and resources, but incumbency and LA’s Democratic coalition still give Bass or another establishment-backed candidate a modest edge absent clear evidence of a Caruso lead.”

“Caruso is a strong challenger but trails in polls and fundraising against incumbent Bass. Incumbency advantage and recent trends favor Bass.”