Will Rick Caruso win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

“Caruso has not officially announced a 2026 run as of recent reports; Bass remains incumbent with structural advantages. Even if he runs, primary is June 2026 and outright win requires >50%.”

“Incumbent Karen Bass is running for re-election with strong Democratic support in a heavily Democratic city. Caruso, a Republican-turned-Democrat, lost in 2022 and faces an uphill battle.”

“Caruso remains a plausible challenger with money and name ID, but incumbency, LA’s Democratic electorate, and Bass’s institutional support make him an underdog absent a major late shift.”