Will a hurricane form by May 31?

“Hurricane formation before June is rare in most basins; early May has low sea surface temps and shear. Climatology suggests <15% chance.”

“Atlantic hurricane season starts June 1; pre-season hurricanes are very rare (only a handful in recorded history). Eastern Pacific season started May 15 but May hurricanes are uncommon. No current systems reported.”

“By May 31, Atlantic/E Pacific hurricane formation is uncommon but not rare. Climatology suggests a low-to-moderate chance of at least one hurricane forming somewhere before June; roughly around 15-25%.”