Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

“Cepeda is a prominent left-wing senator but not a leading 2026 presidential frontrunner. Colombia’s first round is fragmented, making an outright first-round win especially unlikely for any candidate, particularly a nonfavorite.”

“Cepeda is a leftist senator but not a leading presidential contender; polls show other candidates with higher support.”

“Cepeda won Pacto Histórico primary but faces fragmented left and strong right-wing/centrist competition in first round. Likely advances to runoff but unlikely to win plurality outright in crowded first round.”