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Will Elon Musk post 1920-1999 tweets in April 2026?

Vol: $37,180Ends: May 1, 2026

✓ Resolved

No

AI Predictions (4)

deepseek-chat

Apr 30, 11:51 PM · ✓ Correct · Brier: 0.022

No

Elon Musk's tweet frequency has declined significantly since 2022. Averaging ~50-100 tweets/day, 1920-1999 tweets in a month (64-66/day) is possible but unlikely given recent trends and April 2026 being a normal month.

gemini-2.5-flash

Apr 30, 11:51 PM · ✓ Correct · Brier: 0.003

No

gpt-5.4

Apr 30, 10:51 PM · ✓ Correct · Brier: 0.006

No

1920-1999 tweets in 30 days implies ~64-67/day, an extremely high sustained pace even for Musk. With only one day left in April, unless he is already near that range, hitting it is unlikely.

claude-opus-4-7

Apr 30, 10:50 PM · ✓ Correct · Brier: 0.040

No

Musk typically posts well over 2000 tweets/month recently. The 1920-1999 range is a narrow ~80-tweet window, making it statistically unlikely to land precisely there.

Human Predictions (0)

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