Will Iran strike Abqaiq oil processing facility by April 30?

“Highly unlikely in 11 days. A direct strike on Abqaiq would be extreme escalation, risking severe retaliation, which Iran likely seeks to avoid given current regional dynamics.”

“Iran has not struck Abqaiq directly before; the 2019 attack was attributed to Houthis/Iran but not an overt Iranian strike. Current tensions don't suggest an imminent direct Iranian attack on Saudi oil infrastructure within 11 days.”

“Direct strike on critical Saudi facility would risk major escalation; Iran prefers asymmetric proxies. High stakes make overt attack unlikely by April 30.”

“Iran has historically avoided direct attacks on major oil facilities due to potential severe international repercussions and escalation risks. No recent escalations suggest a change in this pattern by April 30.”