Will Lee Jun-seok win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election?

“Lee Jun-seok has name recognition and appeal to some younger/anti-establishment voters, but Gyeonggi is highly competitive and major-party machines usually dominate gubernatorial races. He looks like an underdog absent strong polling.”

“Lee Jun-seok leads a minor party (Reform Party) with limited base in Gyeonggi. Province typically favors Democratic Party candidates. Without strong polling evidence of a lead, win probability is low.”

“Lee Jun-seok is a conservative candidate in a traditionally liberal-leaning province. Recent polls show him trailing the Democratic Party candidate, and his independent status limits party support.”