Will Lee Jae-sung win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election?

“Busan has leaned conservative in recent major races, making a Lee Jae-sung win an uphill battle absent strong polling or a major national swing. Opposition victories are possible, but base rates favor NO.”

“Lee Jae-sung is a Democratic Party candidate in a traditionally conservative-leaning city. Incumbent mayor Park Heong-joon (People Power) is favored for re-election.”

“Busan has historically leaned conservative (PPP stronghold). As a Democratic Party candidate, Lee Jae-sung faces an uphill battle barring strong national tailwinds. Without specific polling data showing a lead, base rate favors PPP incumbent/candidate.”