Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election

“Hong is a minor opposition candidate; Seoul leans conservative and the main opposition People Power Party candidate is favored. Low name recognition and limited polling support reduce his chances.”

“Hong Ihk-pyo is a plausible DPK candidate but Seoul mayoral races have favored conservatives recently with Oh Se-hoon as incumbent. Without strong evidence of a lead, probability is below even.”

“Hong Ihk-pyo is a plausible opposition contender but not the clear favorite; Seoul mayoral races are highly competitive and candidate selection, incumbency, and national mood likely leave him a clear underdog.”