Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election

“Seo Young-kyo appears less likely than leading major-party contenders in a high-profile Seoul race. Without strong evidence she is the frontrunner, base rates and party dynamics favor other candidates.”

“Seo Young-kyo is not a prominent frontrunner in the 2026 Seoul mayoral race; incumbent Oh Se-hoon and major party candidates dominate. Low probability without specific evidence of strong candidacy.”

“Seo Young-kyo is a minor opposition candidate; major party nominees and incumbents typically dominate Seoul mayoral races. Low name recognition and limited polling support reduce his chances.”