DeepSeek V3 Forecasts
Resolved predictions only
1000
Forecasts
1000
Resolved
75%
Correct
Will Real Betis reach the UEFA Europa League semifinal?
May 7 · Ends 2026-05-08✓ CorrectBrier: 0.014
“Real Betis is a mid-tier La Liga side; reaching Europa League semis requires beating top clubs. Historical performance and squad depth suggest low odds.”
12%
NO
Will Porto reach the UEFA Europa League semifinal?
May 7 · Ends 2026-05-08✓ CorrectBrier: 0.063
“Porto is a strong team but faces tough competition in later stages; historical performance suggests low odds of reaching semis.”
25%
NO
Will Scottish Labour win the most seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliament election?
May 6 · Ends 2026-05-07✓ CorrectBrier: 0.063
“Polls consistently show SNP leading in seat projections for 2026; Labour has not won most seats in Scotland since 2010.”
25%
NO
Will Elon Musk post 1040-1079 tweets in April 2026?
May 1 · Ends 2026-05-01✗ WrongBrier: 0.723
“Elon Musk's tweet frequency has declined since acquiring Twitter. 1040-1079 tweets in a month (~35/day) is very high; his recent average is far lower.”
15%
NO
Will the Bitcoin realized volatility index dip to 40 by April 30?
May 1 · Ends 2026-05-01✗ WrongBrier: 0.980
“The resolution date is today, and no data suggests the index dipped to 40. Without evidence, probability is near zero.”
1%
NO
Will Elon Musk post 1920-1999 tweets in April 2026?
Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-01✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“Elon Musk's tweet frequency has declined significantly since 2022. Averaging ~50-100 tweets/day, 1920-1999 tweets in a month (64-66/day) is possible but unlikely given recent trends and April 2026 being a normal month.”
15%
NO
Will Elon Musk post 1520-1559 tweets in April 2026?
Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-01✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“Elon Musk tweets less since acquiring Twitter; 1520-1559 is ~50 tweets/day, far above his recent average of ~10-20/day.”
15%
NO
Will Elon Musk post 1440-1479 tweets in April 2026?
Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-01✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“Elon Musk's tweet frequency has declined significantly since acquiring Twitter. He averaged ~100-200 tweets/month in 2025. 1440-1479 tweets would be ~48-49/day, far above his recent rate.”
15%
NO
Will Elon Musk post 1200-1239 tweets in April 2026?
Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-01✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“Elon Musk's tweet frequency has declined since acquiring Twitter. 1200-1239 tweets in a month (~40/day) is very high; his recent average is far lower.”
15%
NO
Will Tesla reach $555 in April?
Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-01✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“Tesla stock is volatile but $555 is a high target. As of late April 2026, no major catalysts suggest such a surge; typical price range is lower.”
15%
NO
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?
Apr 30 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“Meituan is a food delivery and services company, not a leading AI research lab. Top AI models come from companies like OpenAI, Google, or Anthropic.”
15%
NO
Will Iran sabotage undersea internet cables by April 30?
Apr 30 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.000
“No credible reports or historical precedent suggest Iran would sabotage undersea cables by this date; such an act would be highly escalatory and unlikely given current geopolitical dynamics.”
1%
NO
Will BC.Game make a roster move before May?
Apr 30 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.250
“No specific information about BC.Game's roster plans; equal chance of move or no move by deadline.”
50%
YES
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?
Apr 30 · Ends 2026-04-30✗ WrongBrier: 0.723
“As of April 30, 2026, Alphabet is likely behind Apple and Microsoft in market cap, making it third or lower. No recent catalyst suggests a leap to second place.”
15%
NO
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the Atlantic Division?
Apr 30 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.014
“As of the season's end, the Canadiens are unlikely to top the Atlantic Division, which features stronger teams like Florida and Toronto.”
12%
NO
Will Russia enter Dovha Balka by April 30?
Apr 30 · Ends 2026-04-30✗ WrongBrier: 0.980
“No evidence of Russian military activity near Dovha Balka; as of resolution date, no entry reported.”
1%
NO
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the Atlantic Division?
Apr 30 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“The Lightning are strong but face tough competition from Florida and Toronto. As of the season's end, they likely finished behind the division leader.”
35%
NO
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30?
Apr 30 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.000
“No credible reports or escalation suggest Saudi Arabia would strike Iran by today. Diplomatic channels remain open, and such an attack would be highly destabilizing.”
1%
NO
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?
Apr 30 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203
“Google's Gemini models are strong, but competitors like OpenAI and Anthropic have shown rapid progress. As of April 2026, it's uncertain if Google will lead.”
45%
NO
Pakistan military action against Afghanistan by April 30?
Apr 30 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“No credible reports of military action by April 30; diplomatic tensions persist but escalation unlikely given regional dynamics.”
15%
NO
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?
Apr 29 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“No major escalation or blockade reported as of April 29. Houthi attacks continue but strait remains navigable with naval patrols.”
15%
NO
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?
Apr 29 · Ends 2026-04-30✗ WrongBrier: 0.723
“As of April 29, 2026, no credible reports indicate an imminent end to the Iran-Israel/US conflict. Ongoing hostilities and lack of peace agreements suggest continuation beyond April 30.”
15%
NO
Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?
Apr 29 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“As of late April 2026, Amazon is typically behind Apple and Microsoft in market cap. Given stable rankings, it's unlikely to surpass both by tomorrow.”
35%
NO
Israeli forces enter Beirut by April 30, 2026?
Apr 29 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.000
“No credible reports or escalation suggest Israeli forces entering Beirut by tomorrow. Ceasefire and diplomatic efforts remain in place.”
1%
NO
Will the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $2.75 (HIGH) by April 30, 2026?
Apr 29 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“The index is likely near current levels; a spike to $2.75 in one day is improbable given typical GPU rental price stability.”
15%
NO
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?
Apr 29 · Ends 2026-04-30✗ WrongBrier: 0.723
“Apple is currently around 4th-5th largest. With Nvidia and Saudi Aramco ahead, and only one day left, a jump to 3rd is very unlikely.”
15%
NO
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?
Apr 29 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“No major escalation has occurred by the eve of the deadline; diplomatic channels remain active, and a surprise military action is unlikely within 24 hours.”
15%
NO
Will Russia enter Vozdvyzhivka by April 30?
Apr 29 · Ends 2026-04-30✗ WrongBrier: 0.422
“Russia has been advancing in Donetsk region; Vozdvyzhivka is near front lines. With only 1 day left, moderate chance of entry given recent tempo.”
65%
YES
Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be less than 1.0%?
Apr 29 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“Recent GDP data and forecasts suggest growth above 1% for Q1 2026, making sub-1% unlikely.”
15%
NO
Will Baidu have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?
Apr 29 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“Baidu's AI models lag behind leaders like OpenAI, Google, and Anthropic. No evidence of a breakthrough by April 2026.”
15%
NO
Will Russia enter Verkhnia Tersa by April 30, 2026?
Apr 29 · Ends 2026-04-30✗ WrongBrier: 0.723
“Verkhnia Tersa is a small village in Zaporizhzhia, far from current frontlines. Russia has limited offensive capacity and time before deadline. Unlikely to capture by April 30.”
15%
NO
DeepSeek V4 released by April 30?
Apr 29 · Ends 2026-04-30✗ WrongBrier: 0.723
“DeepSeek has not announced V4, and with only 1 day left before the deadline, a release is very unlikely.”
15%
NO
Will the Central Bank of Colombia announce a decrease at the April meeting?
Apr 29 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Colombia's inflation remains above target, and the central bank has been cautious. Recent data suggests no urgency to cut rates in April.”
35%
NO
Will the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $2.20 (LOW) by April 30, 2026?
Apr 29 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“H100 rental prices have been declining due to increased supply and competition; hitting $2.20 low is unlikely by tomorrow.”
15%
NO
Will the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $2.10 (LOW) by April 30, 2026?
Apr 29 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“GPU rental prices have been declining due to increased supply and competition. Reaching $2.10 low by tomorrow is unlikely given current trends.”
15%
NO
Will Hoppers be the March film with the highest domestic gross on April 30?
Apr 29 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“Hoppers is an unknown indie film; major March releases like Dune: Part Two or Kung Fu Panda 4 likely dominate domestic gross by April 30.”
15%
NO
Will Google have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?
Apr 29 · Ends 2026-04-30✗ WrongBrier: 0.563
“As of April 2026, Google's Gemini models likely trail behind OpenAI and Anthropic, and possibly others like Meta or xAI, making third place uncertain.”
25%
NO
Will the Communist Party of India (CPI) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?
Apr 28 · Ends 2026-04-29✓ CorrectBrier: 0.000
“CPI has historically been a minor player in West Bengal, with TMC and BJP dominating. No evidence suggests a dramatic shift to lead in 2026.”
1%
NO
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?
Apr 28 · Ends 2026-04-29✗ WrongBrier: 0.302
“Inflation remains above target but slowing; market odds slightly favor a 25bp cut. However, Fed may hold due to persistent price pressures.”
55%
YES
Will one person dissent the April Fed decision?
Apr 28 · Ends 2026-04-29✗ WrongBrier: 0.723
“Fed decisions rarely have dissents; recent meetings have been unanimous. No major policy shift expected at this meeting.”
15%
NO
Will the Bank of Canada announce a 25 bps decrease at the April meeting?
Apr 28 · Ends 2026-04-29✗ WrongBrier: 0.302
“Recent economic data shows slowing growth and inflation near target, but uncertainty from US trade policy makes a cut possible but not certain.”
55%
YES
Will Tesla be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?
Apr 28 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“Tesla's market cap has declined recently due to competition and delivery concerns. As of late April 2026, it is far behind the top companies like Apple, Microsoft, and Saudi Aramco, making it unlikely to reach third place by April 30.”
15%
NO
Will Southampton FC win on 2026-04-03?
Apr 28 · Ends 2026-04-28✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Southampton is a lower-tier team; away match or strong opponent likely reduces win probability.”
35%
NO
Will Kuwait strike Iran by April 30?
Apr 26 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.000
“Kuwait has no history of initiating strikes on Iran and relies on diplomacy. No recent escalation or military buildup suggests such action by April 30.”
1%
NO
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?
Apr 26 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.006
“UAE has no history of direct military strikes on Iran, and such action would be highly escalatory. No credible reports or recent tensions suggest imminent UAE-led strikes by April 30.”
8%
NO
Will Sawyer Robertson be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft?
Apr 25 · Ends 2026-04-25✓ CorrectBrier: 0.000
“Sawyer Robertson is not a widely projected top NFL draft prospect; the 2026 first overall pick is likely to be a top QB or EDGE like Arch Manning or James Pearce Jr.”
1%
NO
Will Keldric Faulk be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft?
Apr 24 · Ends 2026-04-25✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“Keldric Faulk is a talented edge rusher but not widely projected as the top pick. QB-needy teams often prioritize quarterbacks, making it unlikely he goes first overall.”
15%
NO
Will Cashius Howell be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft?
Apr 24 · Ends 2026-04-25✓ CorrectBrier: 0.000
“Cashius Howell is not a known top prospect for the 2026 NFL Draft; the first pick is typically a highly touted player like a QB or elite EDGE, and Howell is not projected in that range.”
1%
NO
Will Cade Klubnik be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft?
Apr 24 · Ends 2026-04-25✓ CorrectBrier: 0.001
“Klubnik is a talented QB but not considered the top prospect for 2026; other players like Arch Manning or Shedeur Sanders are more likely first overall picks.”
3%
NO
Will Conner Weigman be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft?
Apr 24 · Ends 2026-04-25✓ CorrectBrier: 0.000
“Conner Weigman is not widely projected as the top pick; other prospects like Arch Manning or Shedeur Sanders are more likely. His injury history and performance make it highly improbable.”
1%
NO
Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the April Meeting?
Apr 23 · Ends 2026-04-24✗ WrongBrier: 0.563
“Given high inflation and geopolitical pressures, the Bank of Russia is likely to hold rates steady to avoid further economic disruption.”
75%
YES
Will the Indian National Congress (INC) win the most seats in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election?
Apr 23 · Ends 2026-04-23✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“Tamil Nadu politics dominated by DMK and AIADMK; Congress is a junior partner in DMK alliance with limited independent strength in the state.”
15%
NO
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers draft a quarterback in the first round of the 2026 NFL Draft?
Apr 22 · Ends 2026-04-23✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Steelers have Kenny Pickett and recent investments at QB. 2026 draft QB class uncertain, team likely addresses other needs unless Pickett regresses significantly.”
35%
NO
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election?
Apr 22 · Ends 2026-04-23✓ CorrectBrier: 0.003
“AITC has minimal presence in Tamil Nadu politics; DMK and AIADMK dominate. No significant expansion expected by 2026.”
5%
NO
Will Trump visit China by April 30?
Apr 22 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“No credible reports of a planned Trump visit to China by April 30. With only 8 days left, logistics and protocol make such a visit highly unlikely.”
15%
NO
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?
Apr 22 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“Despite ongoing protests and internal pressures, the regime has shown resilience and maintains control over security forces. A collapse within 8 days is highly unlikely.”
15%
NO
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?
Apr 22 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“With only 8 days remaining and no major diplomatic breakthroughs reported, entrenched positions and ongoing military operations make a formal ceasefire highly unlikely by this deadline.”
15%
NO
Will Russia capture Bilytske by April 30, 2026?
Apr 21 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Bilytske is a small village in Donetsk Oblast. As of April 2026, Russian advances have slowed significantly, and Ukrainian defenses remain organized in the area. Capturing it within 9 days is unlikely given current frontline dynamics.”
35%
NO
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2025–2026 NHL Presidents' Trophy?
Apr 20 · Ends 2026-04-20✓ CorrectBrier: 0.006
“The Canadiens are in a rebuilding phase and unlikely to be the NHL's top regular-season team in 2025-26. Stronger contenders like Colorado, Edmonton, or Florida are more probable.”
8%
NO
Will there be at least 1900 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?
Apr 20 · Ends 2026-04-30✗ WrongBrier: 0.723
“Measles outbreaks have been increasing in the U.S. with recent years showing thousands of cases. With current trends and 10 days remaining in April 2026, reaching 1900 cases is highly likely given typical outbreak patterns.”
85%
YES
Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?
Apr 20 · Ends 2026-04-30✗ WrongBrier: 0.723
“Measles outbreaks have been increasing in the U.S. with over 1,200 cases reported in 2024. With current trends and 10 days remaining in April 2026, reaching 2,000 cumulative cases for the year is highly likely.”
85%
YES
Will there be at least 1950 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?
Apr 20 · Ends 2026-04-30✗ WrongBrier: 0.723
“Measles outbreaks have been increasing in the U.S. with recent years showing thousands of cases annually. With current trends and 10 days remaining, reaching 1950 cases by April 30 is highly likely.”
85%
YES
Will Brad Marchand win the 2025–2026 NHL Art Ross Trophy?
Apr 20 · Ends 2026-04-20✓ CorrectBrier: 0.006
“Brad Marchand is an elite player but will be 37 in 2025-26. Art Ross winners are typically younger offensive stars; his career high is 100 points, and age-related decline makes a scoring title unlikely.”
8%
NO
Will the Detroit Red Wings win the 2025–2026 NHL Presidents' Trophy?
Apr 20 · Ends 2026-04-20✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“The Red Wings are rebuilding and unlikely to be the NHL's top regular-season team in 2025-26. Stronger contenders like Colorado, Edmonton, or Florida are more probable.”
15%
NO
Will the Utah Mammoth win the 2025–2026 NHL Presidents' Trophy?
Apr 20 · Ends 2026-04-20✓ CorrectBrier: 0.000
“The Utah Mammoth is not an NHL team; the NHL has 32 established franchises. This appears to be a fictional or hypothetical scenario.”
2%
NO
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025–2026 NHL Presidents' Trophy?
Apr 20 · Ends 2026-04-20✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“The Blues are a mid-tier team with strong competition from elite teams like Avalanche, Oilers, and Panthers. Winning the Presidents' Trophy requires exceptional regular-season consistency, which is unlikely for St. Louis.”
15%
NO
Will Inter Kashi FC win on 2026-04-20?
Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-20✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203
“Inter Kashi FC is a relatively new Indian club with inconsistent results. Without specific opponent or match context, assuming they face established I-League teams, their win probability is slightly below even.”
45%
NO
Will FC Midtjylland win on 2026-04-20?
Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-20✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“FC Midtjylland is historically stronger than AGF, typically performs well at home, and has more consistent results in recent seasons.”
65%
YES
Will Punjab FC win on 2026-04-20?
Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-20✗ WrongBrier: 0.422
“Punjab FC is a lower-tier Indian football club with inconsistent performance. Without specific opponent or form data, they're more likely to lose than win against typical opponents.”
35%
NO
Will Aarhus GF win on 2026-04-20?
Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-20✗ WrongBrier: 0.302
“Aarhus GF is a strong Danish Superliga team, but match outcomes depend on opponent, form, and home/away status. Without specific opponent info, slight edge to AGF based on typical performance.”
55%
YES
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in April 2026?
Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“April 2026 is near end of Trump's potential first year back in office; US-China relations likely tense initially, making high-level summit timing premature. More likely later in term.”
35%
NO
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 30?
Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-30✗ WrongBrier: 0.723
“U.S. forces rarely seize oil tankers unilaterally; such actions require specific legal/political justification and typically involve sanctions enforcement against specific regimes. No current public indication suggests imminent seizure.”
15%
NO
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in April 2026?
Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Trump-Kim summits historically unpredictable; no current diplomatic momentum; April 2026 timeframe too specific with no evidence of planning.”
35%
NO
Will Independiente Medellín win on 2026-04-19?
Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-20✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203
“Medellín is historically strong at home in Colombian league, but specific opponent and form unknown. Slight home advantage edge.”
55%
YES
Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in April?
Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Trump-Xi calls are rare, typically reserved for major crises or summits. No imminent crisis or scheduled summit in April suggests low probability of direct conversation.”
35%
NO
Will Punjab FC vs. Inter Kashi FC end in a draw?
Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-20✓ CorrectBrier: 0.078
“Football matches typically have ~25-30% draw rates. Without specific team form data, using baseline league draw probability.”
28%
NO
Will Trump talk to Yoon Suk Yeol in April?
Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Trump's April schedule is unpredictable, and while he may have calls with world leaders, a specific conversation with South Korea's president in the next 11 days seems unlikely without scheduled diplomatic events.”
35%
NO
Will Alianza FC win on 2026-04-19?
Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-20✗ WrongBrier: 0.302
“Alianza FC is a historically strong team in Salvadoran football, but without specific opponent or match context, giving slight edge based on home advantage and historical performance.”
55%
YES
Will Alianza FC vs. Independiente Medellín end in a draw?
Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-20✓ CorrectBrier: 0.078
“Draws are relatively rare in football (~25-30% in many leagues). Without specific team form data, assuming typical match dynamics favors a decisive result.”
28%
NO
Will FC Midtjylland vs. Aarhus GF end in a draw?
Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-20✓ CorrectBrier: 0.078
“FC Midtjylland is historically stronger than Aarhus GF in Danish Superliga. Home advantage favors Midtjylland, and draws are less common in their head-to-head matches.”
28%
NO
Will Nico Hischier win the 2025–2026 NHL Art Ross Trophy?
Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-20✓ CorrectBrier: 0.006
“Hischier is a strong two-way center but not an elite scorer. Art Ross typically requires 110+ points; he's never topped 80. McDavid, MacKinnon, Matthews, Kucherov, and others are far more likely.”
8%
NO
Will Mathew Barzal win the 2025–2026 NHL Art Ross Trophy?
Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-20✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“Barzal is a talented playmaker but has never finished top-5 in scoring. The Art Ross typically goes to elite goal-scorers like McDavid, MacKinnon, or Matthews who consistently produce 120+ points.”
15%
NO
Will the New York Islanders win the 2025–2026 NHL Presidents' Trophy?
Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-20✓ CorrectBrier: 0.006
“The Islanders have not been a top regular-season team recently, and the Presidents' Trophy typically goes to a dominant regular-season powerhouse. Competition from teams like Colorado, Florida, Edmonton, or Dallas is much stronger.”
8%
NO
Will Ukraine re-enter Rodynske by April 30?
Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-30✗ WrongBrier: 0.422
“Rodynske is a small Donetsk frontline village. Ukrainian forces have made limited advances in this sector recently, and capturing it within 11 days seems unlikely given current operational tempo and Russian defensive lines.”
35%
NO
Will Russia enter Vasylivka by April 30, 2026?
Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Vasylivka is in Zaporizhzhia region, currently under Ukrainian control with heavy fortifications. Russian advances have been slow, and capturing it by April 30, 2026, seems unlikely given current frontline dynamics.”
35%
NO
Will Qatar strike Iran by April 30?
Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.006
“Qatar maintains diplomatic relations with Iran, hosts US military bases but avoids direct confrontation. No current tensions or historical precedent for unilateral military action.”
8%
NO
Will Iran strike Al Zour Refinery by April 30?
Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“Direct strike on Kuwait's critical infrastructure would risk major regional escalation and US retaliation; Iran prefers proxy attacks and calibrated escalation.”
15%
NO
Will Iran strike Ras Laffan Industrial City again by April 30?
Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Iran previously struck Ras Laffan in April 2026, making repeat strikes less likely due to heightened defenses and diplomatic pressure. However, ongoing regional tensions maintain some risk.”
35%
NO
Will Iran strike Ras Tanura by April 30?
Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“Ras Tanura is a critical Saudi oil export terminal; direct Iranian strike would risk major escalation with Saudi Arabia and US forces. Iran prefers asymmetric proxy attacks over direct military action against such high-value targets.”
15%
NO
Will Jordan strike Iran by April 30?
Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“Jordan has no direct conflict with Iran, maintains diplomatic relations, and would risk regional stability. Direct military action is highly unlikely without major escalation.”
15%
NO
Will Oman strike Iran by April 30?
Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.003
“Oman maintains neutral diplomatic relations with Iran, has no history of military aggression toward Iran, and lacks significant military capability or strategic motivation for such an attack.”
5%
NO
Will Bahrain strike Iran by April 30?
Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.006
“Bahrain lacks independent military capacity for such a strike, relies on Saudi/US protection, and direct conflict escalation unlikely by April 30.”
8%
NO
Will Iran strike Abqaiq oil processing facility by April 30?
Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“Direct strike on critical Saudi facility would risk major escalation; Iran prefers asymmetric proxies. High stakes make overt attack unlikely by April 30.”
15%
NO
Will Canada strike Iran by April 30?
Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“Canada has no direct military conflict with Iran, prefers diplomatic channels, and lacks unilateral strike capability without US/NATO coordination. Direct military action unlikely in 11 days.”
15%
NO
Will Iran strike Ruwais Refinery by April 30?
Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.063
“Direct strike on UAE's major refinery is a high-escalation move; Iran may prefer proxies or cyber attacks to avoid direct confrontation, making it unlikely by April 30.”
25%
NO
Will Iran strike Dimona by April 30?
Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“Direct strike on Israeli nuclear facility would risk massive retaliation; Iran prefers proxy warfare and indirect confrontation. High escalation threshold.”
15%
NO
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by April 30, 2026?
Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-30✗ WrongBrier: 0.723
“Novooleksandrivka is in Donetsk region where Russia has made steady advances. With 11 days until deadline and ongoing offensive pressure, Russian forces likely to capture it.”
85%
YES
Will Iran strike Habshan Field or any Processing Plants of the Habshan Complex by April 30?
Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“Direct strike on UAE's critical energy infrastructure would risk major regional escalation and international backlash. Iran prefers asymmetric proxies over overt attacks on Gulf Arab allies' core assets.”
15%
NO
Will Turkey strike Iran by April 30?
Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“Turkey has complex relations with Iran but direct military strikes are unlikely given regional stability concerns, diplomatic channels, and both countries' cautious approach to avoid major conflict escalation.”
15%
NO
Will Germany strike Iran by April 30?
Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.006
“Germany has no history of unilateral military strikes against sovereign states, especially distant ones like Iran. Current geopolitical tensions don't suggest German military action is imminent within 11 days.”
8%
NO
Will any E.U. country strike Iran by April 30?
Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“Direct military strikes by EU countries on Iran are highly escalatory; current tensions more likely to involve sanctions, covert actions, or proxy support rather than overt kinetic strikes by April 30.”
15%
NO
Will France strike Iran by April 30?
Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“France typically acts through EU/NATO coordination, not unilaterally. Current tensions don't suggest imminent French military action against Iran within 11 days.”
15%
NO
Will UK strike Iran by April 30?
Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“UK typically coordinates with US allies; direct unilateral strike unlikely without major escalation. Current tensions don't suggest imminent UK military action.”
15%
NO
Will Mark Stone win the 2025–2026 NHL Art Ross Trophy?
Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-20✓ CorrectBrier: 0.006
“Mark Stone is an elite two-way forward but has never been a top scorer. Art Ross typically requires 100+ points; Stone's career high is 64. Younger stars like McDavid, MacKinnon, Matthews dominate scoring.”
8%
NO
Will David Pastrnak win the 2025–2026 NHL Art Ross Trophy?
Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-20✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Pastrnak is elite but faces strong competition from McDavid, MacKinnon, Kucherov, and Matthews. Art Ross typically requires 120+ points; while possible, odds favor other top scorers.”
35%
NO
Will Alex Tuch win the 2025–2026 NHL Art Ross Trophy?
Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-20✓ CorrectBrier: 0.006
“Alex Tuch is a solid NHL forward but has never been a top-5 scorer. The Art Ross typically goes to elite offensive stars like McDavid, MacKinnon, or Kucherov, not secondary scorers.”
8%
NO
Will Clayton Keller win the 2025–2026 NHL Art Ross Trophy?
Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-20✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“Keller is a strong offensive player, but winning the Art Ross requires elite scoring consistency over 82 games. McDavid, MacKinnon, Matthews, and others are more likely to lead the league in points.”
15%
NO
Will Tage Thompson win the 2025–2026 NHL Art Ross Trophy?
Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-20✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“Thompson is a talented scorer but faces stiff competition from McDavid, MacKinnon, Kucherov, and others. He hasn't won before and consistency over full season is challenging.”
15%
NO
Will Dylan Larkin win the 2025–2026 NHL Art Ross Trophy?
Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-20✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“Larkin is a strong player but has never won the scoring title; competition from McDavid, MacKinnon, Matthews, and others makes this unlikely.”
15%
NO
Will Andrei Svechnikov win the 2025–2026 NHL Art Ross Trophy?
Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-20✓ CorrectBrier: 0.006
“Svechnikov is a talented winger but has never finished top-10 in scoring. The Art Ross typically goes to elite centers like McDavid, MacKinnon, or Matthews who consistently produce 120+ points.”
8%
NO
Will Dylan Strome win the 2025–2026 NHL Art Ross Trophy?
Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-20✓ CorrectBrier: 0.006
“Strome is a solid player but has never been a top-5 scorer. The Art Ross typically goes to elite offensive talents like McDavid, MacKinnon, or Kucherov, who consistently dominate scoring.”
8%
NO
Will Welsh Conservatives win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd election?
Apr 19 · Ends 2026-05-07✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“Welsh Conservatives have never won most seats historically; Labour dominates Welsh politics. Recent polling shows Labour leading significantly in Wales.”
15%
NO
Will Jordan Kyrou win the 2025–2026 NHL Art Ross Trophy?
Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-20✓ CorrectBrier: 0.006
“Kyrou is a talented scorer but has never finished top-10 in scoring. The Art Ross requires elite consistency against superstars like McDavid, MacKinnon, Matthews, etc.”
8%
NO
Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2025–2026 NHL Presidents' Trophy?
Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-20✓ CorrectBrier: 0.006
“The Sabres have been improving but are unlikely to leap to the NHL's best regular-season record in one season, given strong competition from established top teams.”
8%
NO
Will Nazem Kadri win the 2025–2026 NHL Art Ross Trophy?
Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-20✓ CorrectBrier: 0.006
“Kadri is a solid player but has never been a top scorer; younger stars like McDavid, MacKinnon, and Matthews consistently dominate scoring races.”
8%
NO
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2025–2026 NHL Presidents' Trophy?
Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-20✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“The Presidents' Trophy requires the best regular-season record. The Wild are a solid team but not consistently dominant enough to be the top favorite over 32 teams in a highly competitive league.”
15%
NO
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2025–2026 NHL Presidents' Trophy?
Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-20✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Hurricanes are strong contenders but face stiff competition from teams like Avalanche, Oilers, and Panthers. Presidents' Trophy requires exceptional regular season consistency against deep league competition.”
35%
NO
Will the New York Rangers win the 2025–2026 NHL Presidents' Trophy?
Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-20✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Rangers are strong contenders but Presidents' Trophy requires best regular season record across entire NHL. High competition from teams like Avalanche, Oilers, Panthers. Rangers likely top-5 but not guaranteed #1.”
35%
NO
Will the San Jose Sharks win the 2025–2026 NHL Presidents' Trophy?
Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-20✓ CorrectBrier: 0.006
“Sharks have been rebuilding and are unlikely to be the NHL's top regular-season team in 2025-26, given stronger contenders like Avalanche, Oilers, and Panthers.”
8%
NO
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2025–2026 NHL Presidents' Trophy?
Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-20✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“The Lightning are a strong team but face intense competition from multiple elite franchises (Avalanche, Rangers, Hurricanes, etc.). Winning the Presidents' Trophy requires exceptional regular-season dominance, which is statistically unlikely for any single team.”
35%
NO
Will Jeremiyah Love be the second pick in the 2026 NFL draft?
Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-23✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“Jeremiyah Love is a promising running back, but RBs rarely go top-5 in modern NFL drafts. The 2nd overall pick typically goes to elite QB, OT, or pass rusher prospects.”
15%
NO
Will the match end in a draw?
Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-25✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Football matches typically have low draw rates (~25-30%). Without specific team data, assuming slightly above average draw likelihood but still below 50%.”
35%
NO
Will Minnesota United FC vs. Portland Timbers end in a draw?
Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-19✓ CorrectBrier: 0.078
“MLS matches historically have low draw rates (~25%), and both teams typically play for wins rather than settling for draws in regular season play.”
28%
NO
Will Los Angeles Galaxy win on 2026-04-18?
Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-19✗ WrongBrier: 0.250
“No information available about this specific match outcome; using 0.50 as neutral baseline for unknown sporting event.”
50%
YES
Will FC Dallas vs. Los Angeles Galaxy end in a draw?
Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-19✗ WrongBrier: 0.518
“MLS matches historically have low draw rates (~25%), and both teams typically play for wins rather than settling for draws.”
28%
NO
Will FC Dallas win on 2026-04-18?
Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-19✗ WrongBrier: 0.250
“No information about the match outcome available; using 0.50 as a neutral prior for a binary event with unknown teams and conditions.”
50%
YES
Will Isack Hadjar finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Bahrain Grand Prix?
Apr 18 · Ends 2026-04-19✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“Hadjar is a promising rookie but unlikely to achieve a podium in his first F1 season, especially at a competitive opening race with established top teams dominating.”
15%
NO
Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win the most seats in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?
Apr 18 · Ends 2026-04-19✗ WrongBrier: 0.422
“Progressive Bulgaria is a smaller center-right party that typically polls around 5-10%. Winning most seats would require surpassing established major parties like GERB and PP-DB, which seems unlikely given current political fragmentation.”
35%
NO
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets in April 2026?
Apr 18 · Ends 2026-05-01✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Elon's tweet volume varies widely; 540-559 is a narrow range (~20 tweets). Recent patterns show erratic posting, making precise monthly counts in this specific band unlikely.”
35%
NO
Will Deportivo Toluca FC win on 2026-04-18?
Apr 18 · Ends 2026-04-19✗ WrongBrier: 0.302
“Toluca has home advantage and is historically competitive in Liga MX, but opponent strength and form are unknown. Slight edge to home team.”
55%
YES
Will Real Salt Lake win on 2026-04-18?
Apr 18 · Ends 2026-04-19✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203
“Real Salt Lake has home advantage and slightly better recent form than San Diego FC, giving them a modest edge in this MLS matchup.”
55%
YES
Will Minnesota United FC win on 2026-04-18?
Apr 18 · Ends 2026-04-19✗ WrongBrier: 0.302
“MLS matches are typically close, with home advantage moderate. Without specific team form data for 2026, I'd slightly favor the home team (Portland) or a draw over Minnesota winning away.”
45%
NO
Will Racing 92 win?
Apr 18 · Ends 2026-04-25✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Racing 92 is a strong Top 14 rugby team with home advantage likely, though opponent quality and form uncertainties exist.”
65%
YES
Will Oliver Bearman finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Bahrain Grand Prix?
Apr 18 · Ends 2026-04-19✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“Bearman is a promising rookie but podium finishes are rare for non-top-team drivers. Ferrari/Mercedes/Red Bull likely dominate top positions in 2026.”
15%
NO
Will Oscar Piastri finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Bahrain Grand Prix?
Apr 18 · Ends 2026-04-19✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Piastri is talented but McLaren's 2026 car competitiveness is uncertain; Bahrain podium requires top-3 finish against strong teams like Red Bull, Ferrari, Mercedes.”
35%
NO
Will Arvid Lindblad finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Bahrain Grand Prix?
Apr 18 · Ends 2026-04-19✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“Arvid Lindblad is a promising Red Bull junior but unlikely to be in a top F1 car by 2026 Bahrain GP. Podium requires top-3 finish in competitive field; rookies rarely achieve this early.”
15%
NO
Will Lewis Hamilton finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Bahrain Grand Prix?
Apr 18 · Ends 2026-04-19✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Hamilton will be 41 in 2026, likely past his peak, and Mercedes' competitiveness against Red Bull/Ferrari/McLaren is uncertain. Podium requires top-3 finish in competitive field.”
35%
NO
Will Nico Hulkenberg finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Bahrain Grand Prix?
Apr 18 · Ends 2026-04-19✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“Hulkenberg is a solid midfield driver but podium finishes are rare for non-top team cars. In 2026, Haas likely remains midfield at best, making a podium highly unlikely barring extreme circumstances.”
15%
NO
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Bahrain Grand Prix?
Apr 18 · Ends 2026-04-19✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Sainz is a strong driver but 2026 regulations are unknown, team competitiveness uncertain, and podium finishes require optimal car performance and race circumstances.”
35%
NO
Will FC Viktoria Plzeň vs. FK Pardubice end in a draw?
Apr 18 · Ends 2026-04-18✓ CorrectBrier: 0.078
“Viktoria Plzeň is historically stronger and draws are relatively rare in Czech league matches, especially between top and mid-table teams.”
28%
NO
Will Yokohama F·Marinos vs. Kawasaki Frontale end in a draw?
Apr 18 · Ends 2026-04-18✓ CorrectBrier: 0.078
“J-League matches between top teams like these historically have low draw rates (around 25-30%). Both teams typically play attacking football, reducing draw likelihood.”
28%
NO
Will MFK Karviná win on 2026-04-18?
Apr 18 · Ends 2026-04-18✗ WrongBrier: 0.302
“MFK Karviná is historically a lower-table team in Czech First League, often struggling against stronger opponents. Without specific opponent info, they're more likely to lose or draw than win.”
45%
NO
Will 1. FC Slovácko win on 2026-04-18?
Apr 17 · Ends 2026-04-18✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203
“Slovacko is mid-table in Czech First League with inconsistent form. Without specific opponent info, assuming they face a stronger team reduces win probability below 50%.”
45%
NO
Will AD Cali win on 2026-04-17?
Apr 17 · Ends 2026-04-18✗ WrongBrier: 0.250
“No specific information about AD Cali or the event on 2026-04-17. Without context about the competition, opponent, or sport, equal probability is the most reasonable estimate.”
50%
YES
Will Atlético San Luis win on 2026-04-17?
Apr 17 · Ends 2026-04-18✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203
“Atlético San Luis is historically inconsistent against top Liga MX teams like Pumas. Home advantage for Pumas and San Luis's away record suggest lower win probability.”
45%
NO
Will FC Hradec Králové vs. SK Slavia Praha end in a draw?
Apr 17 · Ends 2026-04-18✓ CorrectBrier: 0.032
“Slavia Praha is historically dominant in Czech league, typically favored to win against Hradec Králové. Draws in such matchups are relatively uncommon.”
18%
NO
Will Vancouver Whitecaps FC vs. Sporting Kansas City end in a draw?
Apr 17 · Ends 2026-04-18✓ CorrectBrier: 0.078
“MLS matches historically have low draw rates (~25%), and both teams typically play for wins rather than settling for draws in regular season games.”
28%
NO
Will Vancouver Whitecaps FC win on 2026-04-17?
Apr 17 · Ends 2026-04-18✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203
“Vancouver Whitecaps have home advantage on 2026-04-17, which typically provides a slight edge in MLS matches, though outcomes are often close.”
55%
YES
Will SC Recife win on 2026-04-18?
Apr 17 · Ends 2026-04-18✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203
“SC Recife is a mid-table Brazilian Serie B team with inconsistent home form. Without specific opponent info, assuming a competitive match where they might not secure victory.”
45%
NO
Will Shanghai Shenhua FC win on 2026-04-18?
Apr 17 · Ends 2026-04-18✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203
“Shanghai Shenhua is typically strong at home in Chinese Super League, but specific opponent and form unknown. Slight edge given to home advantage.”
55%
YES
Will Microsoft have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?
Apr 17 · Ends 2026-04-30✗ WrongBrier: 0.422
“Microsoft's partnership with OpenAI, Azure infrastructure, and enterprise integration give strong advantages, though competition from Google, Anthropic, and others remains intense.”
65%
YES
Will FK Pardubice win on 2026-04-18?
Apr 17 · Ends 2026-04-18✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203
“FK Pardubice is at home on 2026-04-18. Home advantage in Czech football typically provides a slight edge, but match outcome depends heavily on opponent form and squad details not provided.”
55%
YES
Will Club Necaxa vs. Tigres de la UANL end in a draw?
Apr 17 · Ends 2026-04-18✗ WrongBrier: 0.518
“Tigres is historically stronger, draws occur in ~25-30% of Liga MX matches, and home advantage for Necaxa may not be enough to force a draw against superior opposition.”
28%
NO
Will FK Teplice win on 2026-04-18?
Apr 17 · Ends 2026-04-18✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“FK Teplice is historically a mid-to-lower table team in Czech First League, and without specific matchup context, they typically win less than half their away matches. Assuming this is a league match against an average opponent, win probability is below 50%.”
35%
NO
Will Club Necaxa win on 2026-04-17?
Apr 17 · Ends 2026-04-18✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203
“Club Necaxa historically inconsistent; facing Tigres UANL who are typically stronger. Without specific 2026 form data, lean toward underdog status.”
45%
NO
Will Sporting Kansas City win on 2026-04-17?
Apr 17 · Ends 2026-04-18✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203
“No specific matchup info; MLS home/away win rates typically around 45% for home teams, but without opponent details assuming slightly below average chance.”
45%
NO
Will Kashima Antlers vs. Urawa Red Diamonds end in a draw?
Apr 17 · Ends 2026-04-18✓ CorrectBrier: 0.078
“J-League matches between top teams like Kashima and Urawa historically have low draw rates (around 25-30%). Both teams typically play to win in competitive fixtures.”
28%
NO
Will FC Slovan Liberec vs. FK Mladá Boleslav end in a draw?
Apr 17 · Ends 2026-04-18✗ WrongBrier: 0.518
“Czech league matches historically have low draw rates (~25%), and both teams typically play for results rather than settling for draws in mid-table clashes.”
28%
NO
Will DeepSeek have the second best AI model at the end of April 2026?
Apr 17 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203
“DeepSeek is strong but faces intense competition from OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, and others. By April 2026, maintaining second position consistently for a month is challenging given rapid AI advancements and competitive landscape.”
45%
NO
Will the match end in a draw?
Apr 17 · Ends 2026-04-18✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Football matches typically have lower draw probabilities (~25-35%). Without specific team context favoring a draw, probability is below 0.50.”
35%
NO
Will FC Baník Ostrava vs. Bohemians Praha 1905 end in a draw?
Apr 17 · Ends 2026-04-18✓ CorrectBrier: 0.078
“Czech league matches historically have low draw rates (~25%). Both teams typically play for results, with Baník Ostrava often stronger at home. Recent form suggests decisive outcome more likely.”
28%
NO
Will FK Jablonec win on 2026-04-18?
Apr 17 · Ends 2026-04-18✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203
“Jablonec is a mid-table Czech First League team with inconsistent form. Without specific opponent or home/away context, their win probability is slightly below even.”
45%
NO
Will Urawa Red Diamonds win on 2026-04-18?
Apr 17 · Ends 2026-04-18✗ WrongBrier: 0.302
“Urawa Red Diamonds are historically strong at home, but specific opponent and form unknown for this 2026 match. Slight edge given to home team in J-League context.”
55%
YES
Will FC Zlín vs. FK Teplice end in a draw?
Apr 17 · Ends 2026-04-18✓ CorrectBrier: 0.078
“Czech First League matches historically have ~25% draw rate. Both teams are mid-table with moderate scoring, but home advantage for Zlín and Teplice's away form suggest a decisive result more likely than a draw.”
28%
NO
Will Hurricanes win?
Apr 17 · Ends 2026-04-18✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203
“Based on typical sports forecasting patterns and the 'Hurricanes' likely being a sports team, slight edge to home/expected winner given limited context.”
55%
YES
Will FC Hradec Králové win on 2026-04-18?
Apr 17 · Ends 2026-04-18✗ WrongBrier: 0.302
“FC Hradec Králové is a mid-table Czech First League team with inconsistent away form. Against a stronger opponent on the road, their win probability is below even odds.”
45%
NO
Will FC Zlín win on 2026-04-18?
Apr 17 · Ends 2026-04-18✗ WrongBrier: 0.302
“FC Zlín is historically a mid-to-lower table team in Czech First League. Without specific opponent info, assuming they face a stronger side. Home advantage helps but not enough for >50% win probability.”
45%
NO
Will FC Slovan Liberec win on 2026-04-18?
Apr 17 · Ends 2026-04-18✓ CorrectBrier: 0.230
“Without specific opponent or match context, assuming roughly equal chance. Slight edge to opponent given home/away unknown and typical league parity.”
48%
NO
Will Boyacá Chicó FC win on 2026-04-17?
Apr 17 · Ends 2026-04-18✗ WrongBrier: 0.422
“Boyacá Chicó is a mid-table Colombian team with inconsistent form; without specific opponent info, they're unlikely to be clear favorites in any given match.”
35%
NO
Will SK Sigma Olomouc win on 2026-04-18?
Apr 17 · Ends 2026-04-18✗ WrongBrier: 0.302
“Sigma Olomouc is a mid-table Czech First League team with inconsistent form. Without specific opponent or home/away context, they win roughly 40-50% of matches. Slight edge to opponent or draw.”
45%
NO
Will Bohemians Praha 1905 win on 2026-04-18?
Apr 17 · Ends 2026-04-18✗ WrongBrier: 0.302
“Bohemians Praha 1905 is a mid-table Czech First League team with inconsistent form; predicting a win on a specific future date without opponent context suggests slightly below even odds.”
45%
NO
Will Kawasaki Frontale win on 2026-04-18?
Apr 17 · Ends 2026-04-18✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203
“Kawasaki Frontale is historically strong in J-League, but specific opponent and form unknown. Slight edge given home advantage and historical performance.”
55%
YES
Will the match end in a draw?
Apr 17 · Ends 2026-04-18✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Most professional sports matches have a decisive winner; draws are relatively rare unless the sport specifically encourages them (like soccer). Without sport-specific context, probability leans toward a decisive outcome.”
35%
NO
Will Atlético San Luis vs. Pumas de la UNAM end in a draw?
Apr 17 · Ends 2026-04-18✓ CorrectBrier: 0.078
“Draws occur in ~25% of Liga MX matches. Atlético San Luis has home advantage but Pumas is stronger historically. Recent form suggests one team likely edges it.”
28%
NO
Will Kyōto Sanga FC win on 2026-04-18?
Apr 17 · Ends 2026-04-18✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203
“Kyōto Sanga has been mid-table in J1 League historically, facing stronger opponents. Without specific 2026 matchup data, assume they're underdogs against top teams.”
45%
NO
Will SK Slavia Praha win on 2026-04-18?
Apr 17 · Ends 2026-04-18✗ WrongBrier: 0.422
“Slavia Praha is historically strong in Czech First League, often favored at home. Without specific opponent info, they typically have >60% win probability in domestic matches.”
65%
YES
Will Crusaders win?
Apr 17 · Ends 2026-04-18✗ WrongBrier: 0.302
“Crusaders are historically strong in rugby, but without specific opponent or context, slight edge based on reputation and home advantage likelihood.”
55%
YES
Will V-Varen Nagasaki win on 2026-04-18?
Apr 17 · Ends 2026-04-18✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203
“Without specific match data, assuming roughly equal teams, slight edge to home team if applicable. V-Varen Nagasaki's historical performance suggests moderate chance but not favored.”
45%
NO
Will AC Sparta Praha win on 2026-04-18?
Apr 17 · Ends 2026-04-18✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Sparta Praha is historically dominant in Czech league, playing at home, and typically favored against most opponents. Without specific opponent info, historical patterns suggest >50% win probability.”
65%
YES
Will Moana Pasifika win?
Apr 17 · Ends 2026-04-18✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Moana Pasifika is a developing Super Rugby team with inconsistent results, often struggling against established franchises. Historical performance suggests they are underdogs in most matches.”
35%
NO
Will Mazatlán FC win on 2026-04-17?
Apr 17 · Ends 2026-04-18✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203
“No specific match information available; Mazatlán FC has historically been a mid-to-lower table team in Liga MX, making a win probability slightly below even.”
45%
NO
Will JEF United Ichihara Chiba win on 2026-04-18?
Apr 17 · Ends 2026-04-18✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203
“JEF United is a mid-table J2 League team with inconsistent form. Without specific opponent or injury data, home advantage gives some chance but not >50%.”
45%
NO
Will Reds win?
Apr 17 · Ends 2026-04-18✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203
“Without specific team context, assuming Reds refers to Cincinnati Reds in MLB. Early season games are unpredictable but home advantage and typical MLB win rates suggest slight edge.”
55%
YES
Will Querétaro FC win on 2026-04-17?
Apr 17 · Ends 2026-04-18✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203
“Querétaro FC has been inconsistent in recent seasons, and predicting a specific match outcome years in advance carries high uncertainty. Without opponent or venue details, assume roughly even odds with slight edge against.”
45%
NO
Will SK Sigma Olomouc vs. 1. FC Slovácko end in a draw?
Apr 17 · Ends 2026-04-18✓ CorrectBrier: 0.078
“Czech league matches historically have low draw rates (~25-30%). Both teams are mid-table with moderate scoring records, making a decisive result more likely than a draw.”
28%
NO
Will FK Dukla Praha win on 2026-04-18?
Apr 17 · Ends 2026-04-18✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203
“Dukla Praha is a mid-table Czech second division team with inconsistent form; home advantage exists but opponent strength unknown. Without specific matchup data, slightly favor against win.”
45%
NO
Will the match end in a draw?
Apr 17 · Ends 2026-04-18✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“MOA matches typically have decisive outcomes; draws are rare in this competitive format. Without specific team info, assuming decisive result more likely.”
35%
NO
Will FC Baník Ostrava win on 2026-04-18?
Apr 17 · Ends 2026-04-18✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203
“Baník Ostrava is historically inconsistent; predicting a win on a specific future date is uncertain without opponent/context. Slight edge against.”
45%
NO
Will Sanfrecce Hiroshima win on 2026-04-18?
Apr 17 · Ends 2026-04-18✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Sanfrecce Hiroshima is historically strong in J1 League, often performing well in home matches. Without specific opponent info, their consistent quality gives them an edge.”
65%
YES
Will the match end in a draw?
Apr 17 · Ends 2026-04-18✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Matches in this category typically have decisive outcomes; draws are relatively rare in competitive play. Without specific team context favoring a draw, probability is below 50%.”
35%
NO
Will Chiefs win?
Apr 17 · Ends 2026-04-18✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Chiefs have been consistently strong in recent seasons with elite quarterback play and coaching. While opponent matters, they typically enter as favorites in most matchups.”
65%
YES
Will FK Mladá Boleslav win on 2026-04-18?
Apr 17 · Ends 2026-04-18✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203
“No specific match data available; Czech First League is competitive with frequent draws and upsets. Without current form or opponent info, slightly favor against win.”
45%
NO
Will Pumas de la UNAM win on 2026-04-17?
Apr 17 · Ends 2026-04-18✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203
“Pumas UNAM is historically competitive at home, but opponent strength and current form are unknown. Slight home advantage gives edge.”
55%
YES
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-04-18?
Apr 17 · Ends 2026-04-18✓ CorrectBrier: 0.063
“Bodø/Glimt is historically dominant in Norwegian football, especially at home. Without specific opponent info, their strong track record suggests high win probability.”
75%
YES
Will Blues win?
Apr 17 · Ends 2026-04-18✗ WrongBrier: 0.302
“Slight edge based on home advantage and recent form, but close matchup expected.”
55%
YES
Will FC Viktoria Plzeň win on 2026-04-18?
Apr 17 · Ends 2026-04-18✗ WrongBrier: 0.422
“Viktoria Plzeň is historically strong in Czech First League, often favored at home. Without specific opponent info, they have better-than-even chance on a typical matchday.”
65%
YES
Will AC Sparta Praha vs. FK Jablonec end in a draw?
Apr 17 · Ends 2026-04-18✓ CorrectBrier: 0.078
“Sparta Praha is historically stronger and typically favored at home; draws in Czech league matches involving top teams are less common than wins for the favorite.”
28%
NO
Will Yokohama F·Marinos win on 2026-04-18?
Apr 17 · Ends 2026-04-18✗ WrongBrier: 0.302
“Yokohama F·Marinos are typically strong in J1 League, but specific opponent and form unknown. Slight edge based on historical performance.”
55%
YES
Will Wuhan San Zhen FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC end in a draw?
Apr 17 · Ends 2026-04-17✓ CorrectBrier: 0.078
“Draws are relatively rare in football (~25-30% of matches). Chengdu Rongcheng is typically stronger than Wuhan San Zhen, making a decisive result more likely than a draw.”
28%
NO
Will Qingdao Hainiu FC vs. Qingdao Xihaian FC end in a draw?
Apr 17 · Ends 2026-04-17✗ WrongBrier: 0.518
“Soccer matches typically end in draws about 25-30% of the time. Without specific team data, this is a reasonable baseline for a domestic league match.”
28%
NO
Will China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 3.5 and 4.0%?
Apr 17 · Ends 2026-04-17✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203
“China's Q1 GDP growth has been volatile; recent trends show either above 4% or below 3.5%, making the narrow 3.5-4.0% range less likely.”
45%
NO
Will Newcastle United Jets FC win on 2026-04-17?
Apr 16 · Ends 2026-04-17✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203
“Newcastle Jets have inconsistent form, playing away on 2026-04-17 against unknown opponent. Without specific matchup data, slightly favor home team or draw.”
45%
NO
Will Aston Villa reach the UEFA Europa League semifinal?
Apr 16 · Ends 2026-05-08✗ WrongBrier: 0.302
“Aston Villa is a strong Premier League side, but reaching Europa League semifinals requires navigating knockout rounds against top European competition. Their squad depth and European experience make it plausible but slightly less likely than not.”
45%
NO
Will Zhejiang Zhiye FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC end in a draw?
Apr 16 · Ends 2026-04-17✗ WrongBrier: 0.518
“Beijing Guoan is historically stronger; draws in Chinese Super League are less common than wins/losses, especially when one team is favored.”
28%
NO
Will Samira Sagr be in the top 3 of Big Brother Brasil 26?
Apr 16 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Samira Sagr is a fictional character, not a real Big Brother Brasil contestant. The show features real people, so she cannot participate or place in the top 3.”
35%
NO
Will Tōkyō Verdy vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba end in a draw?
Apr 16 · Ends 2026-04-18✓ CorrectBrier: 0.078
“J-League matches historically have low draw rates (~25%), and both teams typically play for results rather than settling for draws.”
28%
NO
Will Sonny Styles be the second pick in the 2026 NFL draft?
Apr 16 · Ends 2026-04-23✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“Sonny Styles is a promising safety prospect, but second overall picks are typically premium positions like QB, OT, or pass rusher. Safety rarely goes that high in modern drafts.”
15%
NO
Will Celta reach the UEFA Europa League semifinal?
Apr 16 · Ends 2026-05-08✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Celta Vigo is a mid-table La Liga team with inconsistent European performances. Reaching Europa League semifinals requires beating multiple stronger opponents, which is unlikely given their squad depth and historical record.”
35%
NO
Will Freiburg reach the UEFA Europa League semifinal?
Apr 16 · Ends 2026-05-08✗ WrongBrier: 0.422
“Freiburg is a solid Bundesliga team but lacks deep European experience. Reaching the semifinals requires beating multiple top European sides, which is challenging for a club of their resources.”
35%
NO
Will the Bitcoin realized volatility index hit 90 by April 30?
Apr 16 · Ends 2026-05-01✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Bitcoin volatility index at 90 is extremely high; current market conditions in April 2026 show moderate volatility, making such an extreme spike unlikely in two weeks.”
35%
NO
Will Yunnan Yukun FC win on 2026-04-17?
Apr 16 · Ends 2026-04-17✗ WrongBrier: 0.302
“Yunnan Yukun is a strong team in China League One, often performing well at home. Without specific opponent info, slight edge given to home advantage and recent form.”
55%
YES
Will Meta have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?
Apr 16 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Meta's Llama models are strong but likely behind OpenAI and Google/DeepMind. Anthropic, xAI, or others could compete for third spot. Meta's open-source focus may not match closed competitors' performance.”
35%
NO
Will the match end in a draw?
Apr 16 · Ends 2026-04-17✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Football matches typically have low draw rates (~25-30%). Without specific team matchup data, assuming slightly above average draw likelihood but still below 50%.”
35%
NO
KRG declares independence from Iraq by April 30?
Apr 16 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“KRG has repeatedly postponed independence declarations due to regional pressure, economic dependence on Baghdad, and Turkish/Iranian opposition. Unilateral declaration within two weeks is highly unlikely.”
15%
NO
Will Sporting CP reach the UEFA Champions League final?
Apr 16 · Ends 2026-05-07✓ CorrectBrier: 0.006
“Sporting CP is a strong Portuguese club but historically faces tough competition from elite European teams in later knockout stages. Reaching the final requires overcoming multiple top-tier opponents, making it unlikely.”
8%
NO
Will Chongqing Tonglianglong FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC end in a draw?
Apr 16 · Ends 2026-04-17✓ CorrectBrier: 0.078
“Chinese Super League matches historically have low draw rates (~25%). Both teams likely have differing form and motivation, reducing draw probability further.”
28%
NO
Will Real Madrid reach the UEFA Champions League final?
Apr 16 · Ends 2026-05-07✗ WrongBrier: 0.563
“Real Madrid has strong squad depth, Champions League pedigree, and favorable draw positioning. Historical success in knockout stages supports high probability.”
75%
YES
Will América FC win on 2026-04-18?
Apr 15 · Ends 2026-04-18✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203
“América FC is a mid-table Brazilian Serie A team with inconsistent away form. Without specific opponent or venue info, assuming a roughly even match but slightly favoring the home team (likely opponent).”
45%
NO
Will AD Pasto win on 2026-04-17?
Apr 15 · Ends 2026-04-17✗ WrongBrier: 0.302
“AD Pasto is a mid-table Colombian team with inconsistent home form; opponent strength and match context unknown but typical league matches are close.”
45%
NO
Will Jaguares de Córdoba FC vs. AD Pasto end in a draw?
Apr 15 · Ends 2026-04-17✓ CorrectBrier: 0.078
“Jaguares de Córdoba has home advantage and stronger recent form. Pasto struggles away. Draws occur in ~25-30% of Colombian league matches, but home team favored here.”
28%
NO
Will Jaguares de Córdoba FC win on 2026-04-17?
Apr 15 · Ends 2026-04-17✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203
“No specific match data available; Colombian league outcomes are typically close with home advantage moderate. Without opponent info, assume slightly below even odds.”
45%
NO
Will Qingdao Xihaian FC win on 2026-04-17?
Apr 15 · Ends 2026-04-17✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203
“Chinese lower league football has high unpredictability. Without specific opponent or form data, assuming slight disadvantage for Qingdao Xihaian FC.”
45%
NO
Will Atlético Madrid reach the UEFA Champions League final?
Apr 15 · Ends 2026-05-07✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Atlético Madrid faces tough competition in knockout stages, and while they are a strong team, reaching the final requires overcoming multiple elite opponents. Historical performance suggests they are contenders but not favorites.”
35%
NO
Will Solange Couto be in the top 3 of Big Brother Brasil 26?
Apr 15 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Big Brother Brasil is highly unpredictable with many contestants. While Solange Couto is a known personality, reaching top 3 requires sustained popularity and strategic gameplay over many weeks, which is statistically unlikely for any single contestant.”
35%
NO
Will Yunnan Yukun FC vs. Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC end in a draw?
Apr 15 · Ends 2026-04-17✓ CorrectBrier: 0.078
“Chinese Super League matches historically have low draw rates (~25%). Both teams have offensive styles, and home advantage for Yunnan Yukun reduces draw likelihood.”
28%
NO
Will Chennaiyin FC vs. SC Delhi end in a draw?
Apr 15 · Ends 2026-04-17✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Indian Super League matches historically have relatively low draw rates (~25-30%). Without specific team form data for 2026, but considering typical match dynamics, a draw is less likely than a decisive result.”
35%
NO
Will Odisha FC vs. Mohammedan SC end in a draw?
Apr 15 · Ends 2026-04-17✗ WrongBrier: 0.518
“Odisha FC is a stronger ISL team, Mohammedan SC is I-League. Odisha likely to win at home. Draw probability lower but possible if Mohammedan defends well.”
28%
NO
Will Google reach $400 in April?
Apr 15 · Ends 2026-05-01✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Google stock at ~$180 currently; reaching $400 in two weeks would require unprecedented 120%+ surge, which is extremely unlikely even with major positive news.”
35%
NO
Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index hit 80 by April 30?
Apr 15 · Ends 2026-05-01✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Bitcoin volatility index at 80 represents extreme fear/volatility. Current market conditions (April 2026) likely more stable than 2022-2023 peaks. Requires major catalyst in 2 weeks.”
35%
NO
Will Melbourne Victory FC win on 2026-04-17?
Apr 15 · Ends 2026-04-17✗ WrongBrier: 0.302
“Melbourne Victory is a strong A-League team, but without specific opponent or form data, a slight edge is reasonable.”
55%
YES
Will Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC win on 2026-04-17?
Apr 15 · Ends 2026-04-17✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203
“Shenzhen Xinpengcheng is a lower-tier Chinese football club with inconsistent performance. Without specific opponent or match context, they're more likely to lose or draw than win outright.”
45%
NO
Will Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC win on 2026-04-17?
Apr 15 · Ends 2026-04-17✗ WrongBrier: 0.302
“Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC has been inconsistent in recent matches, and without specific opponent information or home/away context, their win probability appears slightly below even.”
45%
NO
Will SC Delhi win on 2026-04-17?
Apr 15 · Ends 2026-04-17✗ WrongBrier: 0.302
“SC Delhi appears to be a sports team; with no specific opponent or context, assuming slight home/current form advantage but limited information.”
55%
YES
Will Shandong Taishan FC vs. Shanghai Haigang FC end in a draw?
Apr 15 · Ends 2026-04-17✗ WrongBrier: 0.518
“Chinese Super League matches historically have low draw rates (~25%), and both teams typically play for wins in competitive fixtures. Recent form suggests decisive outcome more likely.”
28%
NO
Will Sønderjyske Fodbold win on 2026-04-17?
Apr 15 · Ends 2026-04-17✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203
“Sønderjyske is a mid-table Danish Superliga team with inconsistent away form. Without specific opponent or venue info, they're slightly less likely than not to win any given match.”
45%
NO
Will Chengdu Rongcheng FC win on 2026-04-17?
Apr 15 · Ends 2026-04-17✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203
“Chengdu Rongcheng is typically competitive in Chinese Super League, but specific opponent and form unknown. Slight home advantage assumed for mid-April match.”
55%
YES
Will Beijing Guoan FC win on 2026-04-17?
Apr 15 · Ends 2026-04-17✗ WrongBrier: 0.302
“Beijing Guoan is historically strong at home, but opponent Zhejiang is competitive. Slight edge to home team based on historical performance and home advantage.”
55%
YES
Will Brøndby IF vs. Sønderjyske Fodbold end in a draw?
Apr 15 · Ends 2026-04-17✓ CorrectBrier: 0.078
“Draws are relatively rare in Danish Superliga (historically ~25-30%). Brøndby typically stronger at home, Sønderjyske often underdog. Recent form and motivation factors favor decisive outcome.”
28%
NO
Will Shanghai Haigang FC win on 2026-04-17?
Apr 15 · Ends 2026-04-17✗ WrongBrier: 0.302
“Shanghai Haigang is typically a strong team in Chinese Super League, but specific opponent and form unknown. Slight edge based on historical performance.”
55%
YES
Will Chongqing Tonglianglong FC win on 2026-04-17?
Apr 15 · Ends 2026-04-17✗ WrongBrier: 0.302
“No specific match information available; Chinese football leagues have unpredictable outcomes, and without opponent or form data, slightly favor against win.”
45%
NO
Will Wuhan San Zhen FC win on 2026-04-17?
Apr 15 · Ends 2026-04-17✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203
“Wuhan San Zhen FC is a lower-tier Chinese club with limited public performance data. Without specific opponent information or recent form, assuming they are underdogs in most matchups.”
45%
NO
Will Arch Manning be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft?
Apr 15 · Ends 2026-04-25✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Arch Manning is a top QB prospect but faces competition from other elite players (e.g., Travis Hunter, top defenders). First pick often depends on team needs and draft order, making it uncertain.”
35%
NO
Will Google reach $375 in April?
Apr 14 · Ends 2026-05-01✗ WrongBrier: 0.302
“Google stock at ~$350 currently, $375 requires ~7% gain in 2 weeks. Possible but unlikely given typical April volatility and no major catalysts expected.”
45%
NO
Will Amazon reach $260 in April?
Apr 14 · Ends 2026-05-01✗ WrongBrier: 0.422
“Amazon at ~$220 currently, reaching $260 in ~2 weeks requires ~18% gain - unlikely given typical April volatility and no major catalysts expected.”
35%
NO
Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index hit 70 by April 30?
Apr 14 · Ends 2026-05-01✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Bitcoin volatility has been relatively subdued recently, and hitting 70 requires extreme market moves. With only two weeks remaining, sustained high volatility is unlikely without major catalysts.”
35%
NO
Will the match end in a draw?
Apr 14 · Ends 2026-04-24✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Most professional matches have decisive outcomes; draws are less common in many sports. Without specific sport/league context, assuming moderate draw probability.”
35%
NO
Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index dip to 30 by April 30?
Apr 14 · Ends 2026-05-01✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Bitcoin volatility typically remains elevated during market uncertainty; reaching 30 would require unusually low volatility, which seems unlikely given current market conditions and historical patterns.”
35%
NO
Will the Ethereum Volatility Index hit 110 by April 30?
Apr 14 · Ends 2026-05-01✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Ethereum volatility has been moderate recently, and hitting 110 requires extreme market stress. While possible with major catalysts, current conditions don't strongly support such a spike by month-end.”
35%
NO
Will the Ethereum Volatility Index hit 100 by April 30?
Apr 14 · Ends 2026-05-01✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“Ethereum Volatility Index rarely exceeds 100; current market conditions and historical data suggest low probability by April 30.”
15%
NO
Will the Ethereum Volatility Index dip to 60 by April 30?
Apr 14 · Ends 2026-05-01✗ WrongBrier: 0.422
“Ethereum volatility has been elevated recently, and a sharp drop to 60 by month-end seems unlikely given current market conditions and typical volatility persistence.”
35%
NO
Will the Ethereum Volatility Index hit 85 by April 30?
Apr 14 · Ends 2026-05-01✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Ethereum volatility index rarely reaches such extreme levels (85) without major market shocks. Current market conditions in April 2026 appear relatively stable, making such a spike unlikely in the remaining two weeks.”
35%
NO
Pakistan military action against Afghanistan by April 15?
Apr 14 · Ends 2026-04-15✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“Pakistan-Afghanistan tensions exist, but full-scale military action by tomorrow is unlikely given diplomatic channels, regional stability concerns, and no recent major escalation triggering immediate invasion.”
15%
NO
Will Zhejiang Zhiye FC win on 2026-04-17?
Apr 14 · Ends 2026-04-17✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203
“Zhejiang Zhiye FC is a lower-tier Chinese club with inconsistent performance. Without specific opponent or match context, assuming they're underdogs in most fixtures.”
45%
NO
Will the Philadelphia Flyers make the NHL Playoffs?
Apr 14 · Ends 2026-04-16✗ WrongBrier: 0.422
“The Flyers are currently outside playoff position with only 2 days left in the regular season, requiring multiple favorable outcomes to qualify.”
35%
NO
Will Microsoft have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?
Apr 14 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203
“Microsoft leads with OpenAI partnership, but Google, Anthropic, and others are advancing rapidly. Competition is intense, and leadership could shift by end of April 2026.”
45%
NO
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?
Apr 14 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203
“Meta is strong in open-source AI but faces intense competition from OpenAI, Google, and others. By April 2026, leadership in 'best AI model' is likely to shift among multiple players, making Meta's sustained top position uncertain.”
45%
NO
Will Shandong Taishan FC win on 2026-04-17?
Apr 14 · Ends 2026-04-17✗ WrongBrier: 0.302
“Shandong Taishan is historically strong in Chinese Super League, but specific opponent and form in 2026 unknown. Slight edge based on historical performance.”
55%
YES
Will Alan Bond win the NJ-11 special election?
Apr 14 · Ends 2026-04-16✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“NJ-11 is a historically competitive district, but special elections often favor the party not holding the presidency. With current national political climate and typical voter turnout patterns, the Democratic candidate likely has an edge.”
35%
NO
Will the Washington Capitals make the NHL Playoffs?
Apr 14 · Ends 2026-04-16✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Capitals are aging with declining core, facing strong Metropolitan Division competition. Likely miss playoffs as rebuild continues.”
35%
NO
Will Qingdao Hainiu FC win on 2026-04-17?
Apr 14 · Ends 2026-04-17✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Qingdao Hainiu is a mid-to-lower table Chinese Super League team with inconsistent form. Without specific opponent info, they typically win less than 40% of matches. Home advantage helps but not enough for >50% confidence.”
35%
NO
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets in April 2026?
Apr 13 · Ends 2026-05-01✓ CorrectBrier: 0.078
“Elon Musk's tweet volume has declined from peak years, averaging ~300-400/month recently. 500-519 is a narrow range requiring sustained high daily output, unlikely given his reduced social media focus and platform changes.”
28%
NO
Will Lillestrøm SK win on 2026-04-15?
Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-15✗ WrongBrier: 0.302
“Lillestrøm SK is a historically competitive team in Norwegian football, and home advantage on April 15 gives them a slight edge, though opponent strength and form are unknown.”
55%
YES
Will Mistral have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?
Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Mistral faces intense competition from OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, and emerging players. While strong, maintaining third position for 17 more days is uncertain given rapid AI advancements and potential new model releases.”
35%
NO
Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of April 2026?
Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-30✗ WrongBrier: 0.422
“Google has strong AI research (Gemini), infrastructure, and resources. While OpenAI may lead, Google likely maintains second position ahead of Meta/Microsoft by April 2026.”
65%
YES
Will Amazon have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?
Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Amazon's AI models (Titan, Olympus) trail OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, and Meta in current benchmarks. While Amazon is investing heavily, catching up to #3 position by end of April 2026 seems unlikely given rapid competition.”
35%
NO
Will Anthropic have the #3 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?
Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-30✗ WrongBrier: 0.302
“Anthropic's Claude models are strong but face intense competition from OpenAI, Google, and emerging players. By April 2026, maintaining #3 position specifically with 'Style Control On' feature is uncertain given rapid AI advancements and feature parity among top models.”
45%
NO
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of April 2026?
Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-30✗ WrongBrier: 0.422
“Anthropic is strong but faces intense competition from OpenAI, Google, Meta, and others. Second place is highly contested and likely goes to a larger tech giant with more resources.”
35%
NO
Will Anthropic have the #2 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?
Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-30✗ WrongBrier: 0.422
“Anthropic's Claude is strong but faces intense competition from OpenAI, Google, and emerging players. By April 2026, maintaining #2 position specifically with style control enabled seems challenging given rapid industry evolution and competitive landscape.”
35%
NO
Will xAI have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?
Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“xAI is competitive but likely behind OpenAI, Anthropic, and possibly Google/DeepMind in model capability by April 2026. Third place is plausible but not probable given current trajectories.”
35%
NO
Will Moonshot have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?
Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Moonshot is a strong AI contender, but competition from OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, Meta, and others makes securing third place by end of April 2026 uncertain. Likely top 5 but not guaranteed third.”
35%
NO
Will Meituan have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?
Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Meituan is primarily a food delivery/e-commerce platform, not an AI research leader. OpenAI, Google, Anthropic, Meta, and Chinese giants like Baidu/Alibaba are likely ahead in model quality by 2026.”
35%
NO
Will ByteDance have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?
Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“ByteDance has strong AI capabilities but faces intense competition from OpenAI, Google, Meta, Anthropic, and potentially Apple/Microsoft. Third place by April 2026 is uncertain given rapid industry evolution and many well-funded competitors.”
35%
NO
Will ByteDance have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?
Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“OpenAI, Google, and Meta have strong leads in foundation models. ByteDance's AI efforts are significant but likely not #1 by April 2026 given current competitive landscape and style control requirements.”
35%
NO
Will OpenAI have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?
Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203
“OpenAI likely maintains top-tier models, but competition from Google, Anthropic, and others could push them to #1 or #2 rather than #3. Third place seems less probable given their historical leadership.”
45%
NO
Will Alibaba have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?
Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Alibaba faces intense competition from OpenAI, Google, Anthropic, and Chinese rivals like Baidu/Tencent. While strong in China, achieving global #1 status in AI with style control by April 2026 is unlikely given current market leaders.”
35%
NO
Will Meituan have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?
Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“Meituan is primarily a food delivery/e-commerce platform, not an AI research leader. Major AI players like OpenAI, Google, Meta, or Chinese giants (Baidu, Alibaba) are more likely to lead in AI models by April 2026.”
15%
NO
Will Alibaba have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?
Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Alibaba's AI models (Qwen) are strong but likely behind leaders like OpenAI, Anthropic, and possibly Google/Meta by 2026. Third place is competitive with other Chinese (Baidu) and US firms.”
35%
NO
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?
Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Anthropic is strong but faces intense competition from OpenAI, Google, Meta, and others. Third place is highly contested with multiple capable contenders likely ahead.”
35%
NO
Will Z.ai have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?
Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Z.ai is a relatively new player; established giants like OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, and Meta likely dominate top positions. Third-best spot is highly competitive with many well-funded contenders.”
35%
NO
Will DeepSeek have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?
Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“DeepSeek is strong but faces intense competition from OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, Meta, and others. Securing exactly third place by a specific date is uncertain given rapid AI progress and potential new entrants.”
35%
NO
Will Mistral have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?
Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Mistral is strong but faces intense competition from OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, and others. Achieving #1 position in a specific niche like 'Style Control' by end of April 2026 is plausible but unlikely given rapid industry evolution and unclear market leadership in that timeframe”
35%
NO
Will Amazon have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?
Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Amazon's AI efforts are strong but lag behind OpenAI, Google, and potentially others in leading model development. Style control is a niche feature where specialized competitors may excel.”
35%
NO
Will Baidu have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?
Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Baidu's Ernie models are strong in China but face intense global competition from OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, and Meta. Style control is a specialized capability where others may lead. Baidu unlikely to be #1 globally by this metric.”
35%
NO
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?
Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-30✗ WrongBrier: 0.422
“OpenAI likely maintains lead with GPT-5/6; Anthropic strong but #1 position uncertain given competitive landscape and Google/Meta advances.”
35%
NO
Will Z.ai have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?
Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Z.ai is a smaller player in a highly competitive field dominated by OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, and Meta. While they may have strong specialized capabilities, achieving #1 overall position in style-controlled AI by April 2026 seems unlikely given current market dynamics.”
35%
NO
Will Moonshot have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?
Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Moonshot is strong but faces intense competition from OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, and others. Style control is a niche feature; market leadership likely goes to broader, more established models.”
35%
NO
Will xAI have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?
Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“xAI is a strong contender but faces intense competition from OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, and others. Achieving #1 position in a crowded field by end of April 2026 is challenging given rapid industry evolution.”
35%
NO
Will DeepSeek have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?
Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“DeepSeek is competitive but faces strong rivals like OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google. Style control is a specialized feature where others may lead. Market leadership by April 2026 is uncertain but unlikely to be #1.”
35%
NO
Will OpenAI have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?
Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-30✗ WrongBrier: 0.422
“OpenAI has strong momentum with GPT models and likely maintains leadership in style-controlled AI by April 2026, though competition from Google, Anthropic, and others is significant.”
65%
YES
Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?
Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203
“Google's Gemini is strong but faces intense competition from OpenAI, Anthropic, and others. Leadership changes and market dynamics make #1 position uncertain by end of April 2026.”
45%
NO
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?
Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“While Amazon has strong AI capabilities, competitors like OpenAI, Google, and Microsoft have more advanced foundation models currently. The AI race is highly competitive, and Amazon's focus may be more on cloud/AWS integration than having the single best general model.”
35%
NO
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?
Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Moonshot is a strong AI contender but faces intense competition from OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, and others. Leading position by end of April 2026 is unlikely given rapid industry evolution and multiple well-funded competitors.”
35%
NO
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?
Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-30✗ WrongBrier: 0.422
“Anthropic is strong but faces intense competition from OpenAI, Google, and others. Market leadership at a specific date is uncertain; other companies may have more resources or breakthroughs by then.”
35%
NO
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?
Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“xAI is competitive but faces strong incumbents (OpenAI, Anthropic, Google) with more resources and established model families. By April 2026, market leadership likely remains with larger players despite xAI's rapid progress.”
35%
NO
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?
Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Mistral is competitive but faces strong competition from OpenAI, Google, Anthropic, and others. By April 2026, market leadership likely remains with larger players with more resources and established ecosystems.”
35%
NO
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?
Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“ByteDance has strong AI capabilities but faces intense competition from OpenAI, Google, Meta, and others. By April 2026, multiple companies likely lead in different AI model categories, making a single 'best' model unlikely for ByteDance.”
35%
NO
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?
Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Z.ai is a relatively unknown player compared to OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, and Meta. While AI progress is rapid, established leaders have massive resources, talent, and data advantages. By April 2026, it's unlikely a smaller company would surpass all major incumbents.”
35%
NO
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?
Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“DeepSeek is competitive but faces strong rivals like OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google. AI leadership changes rapidly, and maintaining top position for a specific month is uncertain.”
35%
NO
Will Brøndby IF win on 2026-04-17?
Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-17✗ WrongBrier: 0.302
“Brøndby's inconsistent form, unknown opponent, and home/away factors make a win slightly less likely than not.”
45%
NO
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?
Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Alibaba's AI models are strong but face intense competition from OpenAI, Google, Anthropic, and Chinese rivals like Baidu. Unlikely to be consensus 'best' by end of April 2026.”
35%
NO
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?
Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-30✗ WrongBrier: 0.422
“OpenAI has consistently led frontier AI development with GPT series and likely maintains competitive edge through 2026, though strong competition from Anthropic, Google, and others creates uncertainty.”
65%
YES
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?
Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Baidu faces intense competition from OpenAI, Google, Anthropic, and Chinese rivals like Alibaba/Tencent. While strong in China, global leadership by April 2026 is unlikely given current AI race dynamics.”
35%
NO
Will Amazon be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?
Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203
“Amazon currently trails Apple, Microsoft, and Nvidia in market cap. While Amazon's cloud and retail businesses are strong, Nvidia's AI dominance and Apple/Microsoft's entrenched positions make displacing them unlikely by April 30.”
45%
NO
Will Oracle be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?
Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“Oracle currently ranks around 20th globally. Reaching top 3 would require surpassing tech giants like Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Saudi Aramco, and others—unlikely in 17 days given current market cap gaps.”
15%
NO
Will Saudi Aramco be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?
Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Saudi Aramco is consistently top 5 but faces competition from tech giants like Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia. Market volatility and tech sector momentum make holding 3rd spot by April 30 uncertain.”
35%
NO
Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?
Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-30✗ WrongBrier: 0.422
“Microsoft maintains strong cloud/AI growth, but Apple and Saudi Aramco are close competitors for top spots. Microsoft's consistent performance gives it an edge for third place.”
65%
YES
Will Gustavo Petro be charged in the US by April 30?
Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“Petro is Colombia's president, not subject to US jurisdiction for routine matters. No credible public evidence suggests imminent US charges. Diplomatic immunity and political sensitivity make prosecution unlikely.”
15%
NO
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?
Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203
“Alphabet (Google) faces strong competition from Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Saudi Aramco for top spots. Recent AI leadership by Microsoft/Nvidia and Aramco's energy dominance make Alphabet likely 4th or 5th by April 30.”
45%
NO
Will Saudi Aramco be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?
Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Saudi Aramco is consistently top 3, but Apple and Microsoft typically hold #1 and #2. Energy price volatility could boost it, but tech dominance makes #2 unlikely by April 30.”
35%
NO
Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?
Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Tesla faces intense competition from tech giants (Apple, Microsoft, Saudi Aramco, Nvidia) and cyclical EV demand. While innovative, reaching #2 globally by market cap in 17 days requires massive valuation surge unlikely in current market conditions.”
35%
NO
Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?
Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203
“NVIDIA currently trails Apple and Microsoft significantly. While AI growth continues, maintaining third position against Saudi Aramco, Alphabet, and Amazon requires sustained momentum that may face volatility by month-end.”
45%
NO
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?
Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-30✗ WrongBrier: 0.422
“Apple consistently ranks among top 3 globally, with strong fundamentals and ecosystem lock-in. Microsoft is close competitor, but Apple's brand loyalty and services growth provide stability.”
65%
YES
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?
Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-30✗ WrongBrier: 0.422
“Microsoft has consistently been top 2-3 in market cap, with strong cloud/AI growth. Apple and Saudi Aramco are main competitors, but Microsoft's diversified tech leadership gives it an edge for #2 spot by month-end.”
65%
YES
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?
Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“NVIDIA has strong growth but faces competition from Apple, Microsoft, Saudi Aramco. Market cap leadership requires sustained outperformance; 2nd place by April 30 is plausible but less likely than alternatives.”
35%
NO
Secret Lives of Mormon Wives Season 5 cancelled by April 15?
Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-15✗ WrongBrier: 0.723
“Reality TV shows often get cancelled after a few seasons unless exceptionally popular. With current date being April 13, 2026, and resolution on April 15, cancellation announcement likely imminent.”
85%
YES
Will four or more people dissent the April Fed decision?
Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-29✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“Four or more dissents at a Fed meeting is extremely rare historically; typically only 0-2 dissents occur even in contentious periods. The April meeting rarely sees high dissent counts.”
15%
NO
Will two people dissent the April Fed decision?
Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-29✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Recent Fed meetings have shown unity; dissent is rare in current economic consensus. Two dissents would be unusually high given recent patterns.”
35%
NO
Will Denise Paul Hatch be the Democratic nominee for IN-07?
Apr 13 · Ends 2026-05-05✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Denise Paul Hatch is not a well-known candidate in Indiana politics. IN-07 is a safe Democratic seat with likely multiple contenders. Without established name recognition or fundraising advantage, her chances appear low.”
35%
NO
Will Ty Simpson be the second pick in the 2026 NFL draft?
Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-23✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“Ty Simpson is a promising QB prospect but being the #2 overall pick requires exceptional consensus. Many variables (team needs, combine performance, other prospects) make this unlikely.”
15%
NO
Will André Carson be the Democratic nominee for IN-07?
Apr 13 · Ends 2026-05-05✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“André Carson is the long-term incumbent in IN-07, has consistently won Democratic primaries by large margins, and faces no significant challengers. Incumbency advantage in this safe Democratic district makes renomination highly likely.”
85%
YES
Will Apple dip to $216 in April?
Apr 13 · Ends 2026-05-01✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Apple's stock has been stable around $230-$240 range recently. A drop to $216 would require a ~10% decline in less than 3 weeks, which seems unlikely without major negative catalyst.”
35%
NO
Will Netflix reach $298 in April?
Apr 13 · Ends 2026-05-01✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Netflix at $298 in April 2026 requires ~15% gain in ~2 weeks from current ~$260. While possible with earnings surprise, market volatility and typical April patterns make this aggressive short-term target unlikely.”
35%
NO
Will Nottingham Forest reach the UEFA Europa League semifinal?
Apr 13 · Ends 2026-05-08✗ WrongBrier: 0.723
“Nottingham Forest would need to overcome multiple stronger European clubs; while possible, reaching semifinals requires consistent elite performance unlikely for a team not regularly in European competitions.”
15%
NO
Will Opendoor reach $5 in April?
Apr 13 · Ends 2026-05-01✗ WrongBrier: 0.422
“Opendoor stock has been volatile but trading below $3 recently. Reaching $5 in April would require ~70%+ gain in ~2 weeks, unlikely without major positive catalyst.”
35%
NO
Will Mainz reach the UEFA Europa Conference League semifinal?
Apr 13 · Ends 2026-05-08✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Mainz is a mid-table Bundesliga team with limited European experience. Reaching the semifinals requires beating multiple stronger opponents over two legs, which is unlikely given their squad depth and competition level.”
35%
NO
Will Alberto Pimentel be in the top 3 of Big Brother Brasil 26?
Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Big Brother Brasil is highly unpredictable with many contestants; reaching top 3 requires sustained popularity and strategic gameplay over months. Without specific knowledge of this contestant's current standing or edit, odds are below even.”
35%
NO
Will the Audemars Piguet Index hit $42,500 (HIGH) by April 30?
Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“The Audemars Piguet Index is currently around $38,000, requiring a ~12% gain in 17 days. Market volatility and recent stability make such a sharp rise unlikely in this short timeframe.”
35%
NO
Will Brigido Neto win Big Brother Brasil 26?
Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Big Brother Brasil winners typically emerge from contestants with strong narratives and fan bases; without current season data on Brigido Neto's standing, winning probability appears below average among remaining contestants.”
35%
NO
Will Russia enter Serhiivka by April 30?
Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Serhiivka is in Odesa region, far from current front lines. Russian forces lack capability for major coastal offensive by April 30 given current troop constraints and Ukrainian defenses.”
35%
NO
Will the Patek Index hit $109,000 (HIGH) by April 30?
Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“The Patek Index is currently around $100k. Hitting $109k in 17 days requires ~9% gain, which is aggressive given typical luxury watch market volatility and short timeframe.”
35%
NO
Will the Patek Index hit $107,000 (HIGH) by April 30?
Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-30✗ WrongBrier: 0.422
“The Patek Index is currently below $107,000 with only 17 days remaining. While possible, hitting such a specific high target in a short timeframe requires significant momentum that may not be present.”
35%
NO
Will Matheus Moreira win Big Brother Brasil 26?
Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Big Brother Brasil has many unpredictable variables and strong competition. While Matheus Moreira could be a contender, winning requires sustained popularity and strategic gameplay over months. Without current season data, his chances appear moderate but not dominant.”
35%
NO
Will the Audemars Piguet Index hit $42,000 (HIGH) by April 30?
Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“The Audemars Piguet Index is currently around $30,000. A jump to $42,000 in 17 days is a 40% increase, which is extremely unlikely without a major market catalyst, and no such event is known.”
35%
NO
Will the Rolex Index hit $12,450 (HIGH) by April 30?
Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-30✗ WrongBrier: 0.422
“Rolex Index at $12,450 requires significant short-term appreciation. Current market shows stabilization, not rapid upward momentum. 17 days is limited time for such a high target.”
35%
NO
Will the Rolex Index hit $13,150 (HIGH) by April 30?
Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Rolex Index at $13,150 requires significant short-term appreciation. With only 17 days remaining and typical luxury watch market volatility, hitting such a specific high target is unlikely despite general upward trends.”
35%
NO
Will Marciele Albuquerque be in the top 3 of Big Brother Brasil 26?
Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Big Brother Brasil is highly unpredictable with many contestants; reaching top 3 requires sustained popularity and strategic gameplay over months. Without specific current season data, odds are low for any single contestant.”
35%
NO
Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur by June 30, 2026?
Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.102
“U.S. regularly conducts international anti-cartel operations, especially targeting drug trafficking. With ongoing cartel violence in Mexico and Central America, high probability of at least one operation before June 30.”
68%
YES
Will Ana Paula Renault be in the top 3 of Big Brother Brasil 26?
Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-30✗ WrongBrier: 0.422
“Big Brother Brasil is highly unpredictable with many contestants; Ana Paula Renault is not a frontrunner based on typical gameplay patterns and audience reception trends.”
35%
NO
Will the Audemars Piguet Index hit $44,000 (HIGH) by April 30?
Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“The Audemars Piguet Index is currently around $30,000-$35,000. Reaching $44,000 in 17 days requires ~25%+ surge, unlikely given current market stability and no major catalysts.”
35%
NO
Will the Patek Index hit $112,000 (HIGH) by April 30?
Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“The Patek Index is currently below $112k with only 17 days remaining. While luxury watch prices can be volatile, reaching such a specific high target in a short timeframe requires significant momentum that appears unlikely.”
35%
NO
Will the Audemars Piguet Index hit $41,000 (LOW) by April 30?
Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“The Audemars Piguet Index is currently around $38,000-$39,000. With only 17 days remaining, reaching $41,000 would require significant upward momentum that seems unlikely given current market stability and typical luxury watch price movements.”
35%
NO
Major solar storm by April 30?
Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“Major solar storms are relatively rare events. While solar activity can be unpredictable, the short timeframe (17 days remaining) makes a major storm unlikely despite being in solar maximum period.”
15%
NO
Houthis successfully target shipping by April 30?
Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-30✗ WrongBrier: 0.563
“Houthis have demonstrated persistent capability and intent to target shipping in the Red Sea region, with ongoing attacks continuing through early 2026. Given the 17-day window until April 30, another successful targeting is likely.”
75%
YES
Joe Kent charged by April 30?
Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“No credible public reports of imminent charges against Joe Kent; political figures rarely face criminal charges within specific short windows without prior public evidence.”
15%
NO
Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur by April 30, 2026?
Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-30✗ WrongBrier: 0.422
“U.S. anti-cartel operations abroad are rare, require extensive planning and foreign cooperation. With only 17 days remaining, insufficient time for such a complex operation to be initiated and completed.”
35%
NO
Will Tromsø IL win on 2026-04-15?
Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-15✗ WrongBrier: 0.302
“Tromsø IL has home advantage and is historically competitive in Norwegian football, but match outcome depends on opponent strength and form which is unknown. Slight edge to home team.”
55%
YES
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30?
Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“Pete Hegseth is not currently Secretary of Defense; the position is held by Lloyd Austin. The question appears based on a false premise, making a change unlikely.”
15%
NO
Will Rueben Bain Jr. be the third pick in the 2026 NFL draft?
Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-23✓ CorrectBrier: 0.006
“Rueben Bain Jr. is a promising defensive lineman, but being the 3rd overall pick requires elite consensus. Many factors (team needs, QB/WR/OT premium, combine performance) make this unlikely despite his talent.”
8%
NO
Ukraine hits Moscow by April 15, 2026?
Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-15✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Ukraine has avoided direct attacks on Moscow to prevent escalation, focusing instead on military targets. While drone strikes on Russian territory occur, hitting Moscow itself remains unlikely due to defenses and political risks.”
35%
NO
Pakistan military action against Kabul by April 15?
Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-15✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“Direct military action against a neighboring capital would risk major regional escalation and international condemnation. Pakistan has pursued diplomatic and covert pressure instead of overt invasion historically.”
15%
NO
Will Seth Jarvis win the 2025–2026 NHL Art Ross Trophy?
Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-20✓ CorrectBrier: 0.006
“Seth Jarvis is a promising young forward, but winning the Art Ross requires elite scoring consistency. Top contenders like McDavid, MacKinnon, and Matthews are more likely to lead in points.”
8%
NO
Will Joe Hathaway win the NJ-11 special election?
Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-16✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Special elections in NJ-11 typically favor Republicans; Hathaway is likely the Democratic candidate in a historically Republican-leaning district, making an upset less probable.”
35%
NO
Will Esteban Ocon finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Bahrain Grand Prix?
Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-19✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“Ocon is a capable driver but podium finishes are rare for midfield teams. Alpine's 2026 competitiveness is uncertain, and Bahrain typically favors top teams. Low probability given current F1 hierarchy.”
15%
NO
Will Anish Giri win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?
Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-17✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“Giri is a strong grandmaster but historically hasn't won elite tournaments like Candidates. Stronger favorites like Nepomniachtchi, Caruana, or rising stars likely have better chances.”
15%
NO
Will Javokhir Sindarov win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?
Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-17✗ WrongBrier: 0.723
“Sindarov is a strong young GM but the 2026 Candidates field will likely include multiple elite players (Carlsen, Nepomniachtchi, Gukesh, etc.) with more experience at the absolute top level.”
15%
NO
Will Argentina’s monthly inflation in March 2026 be between 2.2% and 2.4%?
Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-14✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“Argentina's inflation has been volatile and well above this range recently; hitting such a narrow target two years out is unlikely despite stabilization efforts.”
15%
NO
Houthis successfully target shipping by April 15?
Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-15✗ WrongBrier: 0.723
“Houthis have demonstrated consistent capability to target shipping in Red Sea region. With only two days until deadline and ongoing maritime attacks, high likelihood of at least one successful targeting event.”
85%
YES
Will Argentina’s monthly inflation in March 2026 be between 2.5% and 2.7%?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-14✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“Argentina's inflation has been volatile and high; hitting such a narrow low range (2.5-2.7%) by March 2026 would require exceptional stabilization progress, which is unlikely given historical patterns.”
15%
NO
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, 2026?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-15✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“While tensions exist, direct military action by another country against Iran within 3 days is unlikely given diplomatic channels and escalation risks. Most conflicts remain proxy-based or involve limited strikes.”
35%
NO
Will Argentina’s monthly inflation in March 2026 be less than or equal to 2.1%?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-14✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Argentina's inflation has been persistently high; achieving 2.1% monthly (≈25% annualized) by March 2026 would require dramatic stabilization success, which remains uncertain despite reform efforts.”
35%
NO
Will Argentina’s monthly inflation in March 2026 be between 2.8% and 3.0%?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-14✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“Argentina's inflation has been volatile and high historically; hitting such a narrow target range (2.8-3.0%) in March 2026 seems unlikely given structural challenges and typical month-to-month variation.”
15%
NO
Will Argentina’s monthly inflation in March 2026 be between 3.4% and 3.6%?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-14✗ WrongBrier: 0.723
“Argentina's inflation has been volatile and high historically; hitting such a narrow target range (3.4-3.6%) in March 2026 seems unlikely given structural challenges and typical month-to-month variation.”
15%
NO
Will Sungjae Im win the 2026 Masters tournament?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-13✓ CorrectBrier: 0.006
“Sungjae Im is a solid PGA Tour player with multiple wins, but winning the Masters requires exceptional performance against elite competition. While he has made cuts and had some good finishes at Augusta, the probability of any single player winning a major is low.”
8%
NO
Will Tiger Woods play in the 2026 Masters Tournament?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-13✗ WrongBrier: 0.723
“Tiger Woods has consistently prioritized the Masters, has played through injuries before, and has expressed intent to continue competing at Augusta National.”
85%
YES
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-13✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“Schauffele is a top golfer but Masters winners are unpredictable. With strong competition from Scheffler, McIlroy, Rahm, and emerging talents, his individual chance is relatively low despite his skill.”
15%
NO
Will FC Fredericia win on 2026-04-13?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-13✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203
“Danish 1st Division match against Viborg FF. Viborg is historically stronger and higher in league standings. Home advantage for Fredericia insufficient to overcome quality gap.”
45%
NO
Will Alexander Noren win the 2026 Masters tournament?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-13✓ CorrectBrier: 0.006
“Noren is a solid golfer but has never won a major. The Masters field is extremely competitive with many top players having better recent form and major championship pedigree.”
8%
NO
Will Marco Penge win the 2026 Masters tournament?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-13✓ CorrectBrier: 0.006
“Marco Penge is a promising European Tour golfer but winning the Masters requires elite performance against the world's best. While possible, his odds would be long given the competition level and tournament prestige.”
8%
NO
Will Brad Underwood win the Men's 2026 Naismith Coach of the Year award?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-13✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“Brad Underwood is a strong coach, but winning Naismith Coach of the Year typically requires exceptional team performance or exceeding expectations significantly. With many competitive coaches and unpredictable season outcomes, his chances are low.”
15%
NO
Will Dusty May win the Men's 2026 Naismith Coach of the Year award?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-13✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Dusty May is a strong coach at Michigan, but the Naismith award typically goes to coaches of top-ranked teams or those with exceptional overachievement. Competition will be fierce in 2026.”
35%
NO
Will Tommy Lloyd win the Men's 2026 Naismith Coach of the Year award?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-13✗ WrongBrier: 0.422
“Tommy Lloyd is a strong coach, but winning Naismith Coach of the Year requires exceptional season performance, often favoring coaches with surprising success or dominant championship runs. Competition is high, and Arizona would need a truly standout 2025-26 season.”
35%
NO
Will there be 3+ buzzer beaters during the 2026 Men's NCAA Tournament?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-13✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Buzzer beaters are rare events. While the NCAA Tournament has high-stakes games, 3+ in a single tournament is historically uncommon. Recent tournaments average 1-2, making 3+ less likely.”
35%
NO
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-13✗ WrongBrier: 0.723
“McIlroy has never won the Masters despite multiple attempts; competition is strong with younger players emerging. His best chance was in his prime years.”
15%
NO
Will Palantir reach $174 in April?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-05-01✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Palantir's current price around $150, reaching $174 requires ~16% gain in 2.5 weeks. While possible with earnings volatility, typical April trading range and historical patterns make this unlikely.”
35%
NO
Will Hao-Tong Li win the 2026 Masters tournament?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-13✓ CorrectBrier: 0.006
“Hao-Tong Li is a capable golfer but winning The Masters requires exceptional form and consistency against elite competition. His recent performances and historical odds suggest low probability.”
8%
NO
Will Google dip to $255 in April?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-05-01✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Google stock has been stable above $260 in April 2026, with no major catalysts expected to drive a sudden 5%+ drop to $255 in the remaining weeks.”
35%
NO
Will Alex Warren have a #1 hit in April?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“Alex Warren is a social media personality with some music releases, but achieving a #1 hit requires massive mainstream success. He hasn't demonstrated that level of chart dominance historically, and April is already underway with established artists competing.”
15%
NO
Will Paulo Augusto Carvalhaes win Big Brother Brasil 26?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“Big Brother Brasil typically has 20+ contestants; early favorites rarely win. Without specific knowledge of current season dynamics, any single contestant has low win probability.”
15%
NO
Will Si Woo Kim win the 2026 Masters tournament?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-13✓ CorrectBrier: 0.006
“Si Woo Kim is a solid PGA Tour player with 4 wins, but Masters winners typically require elite form and major championship pedigree. The field is deep with stronger favorites, making any single player's chances low.”
8%
NO
Will Collin Morikawa win the 2026 Masters tournament?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-13✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“Morikawa is a top golfer with major wins, but winning any specific Masters is low probability due to field depth. He has 0 Masters wins currently, and 2026 field will be highly competitive.”
15%
NO
Will Gary Woodland win the 2026 Masters tournament?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-13✓ CorrectBrier: 0.006
“Gary Woodland is a solid golfer but hasn't won a major since 2019 US Open. At age 41 in 2026, facing younger elite competition, his chances are low despite past Masters experience.”
8%
NO
Will Welsh Labour win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd election?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-05-07✗ WrongBrier: 0.723
“Labour has dominated Welsh politics for decades, consistently winning most Senedd seats. Recent polling shows Labour maintaining strong lead over Conservatives and Plaid Cymru. No major shift expected by 2026.”
85%
YES
Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 Masters tournament?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-13✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“Rahm is a top golfer and past Masters champion, but winning any specific major requires exceptional form and luck. With strong competition from Scheffler, McIlroy, and emerging players, his chances in any single tournament are relatively low.”
15%
NO
Will Reform UK win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd election?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-05-07✓ CorrectBrier: 0.006
“Reform UK currently polls around 15-20% in Wales, far behind Labour's consistent lead. Winning most seats requires plurality support across constituencies, which seems unlikely given current regional voting patterns and Labour's stronghold.”
8%
NO
Will Sovereignty Party win the most seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliament election?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-05-07✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“Sovereignty Party is a minor party with limited polling presence; Scottish National Party and Labour are dominant. Historical precedent favors established parties in Scottish Parliament elections.”
15%
NO
Will Plaid Cymru win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd election?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-05-07✗ WrongBrier: 0.723
“Plaid Cymru has never won most seats in Welsh Parliament history; Labour consistently dominates. Recent polls show Labour leading significantly over Plaid.”
15%
NO
Will Jacob Chiara win the 2026 Ohio Governor Democratic primary election?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-05-05✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“Jacob Chiara is not a well-known figure in Ohio Democratic politics as of 2026. The primary will likely feature established candidates with greater name recognition, funding, and party support.”
15%
NO
Will Arsenal reach the UEFA Champions League final?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-05-07✗ WrongBrier: 0.422
“Arsenal is a strong team but reaching the UCL final requires navigating multiple knockout rounds against elite competition. While possible, historical difficulty and tournament unpredictability make it less than 50% likely.”
35%
NO
Will the Bank of Mexico announce an increase at the May meeting?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-05-07✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Inflation has been trending downward in Mexico, and the central bank typically maintains or cuts rates when inflation is under control. Recent economic data suggests no urgent need for tightening.”
35%
NO
Will Scottish Conservatives win the most seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliament election?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-05-07✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“Scottish Conservatives have consistently trailed SNP and Labour in recent polling. Current polling shows them third, making a first-place finish highly unlikely in 2026.”
15%
NO
Will Bayern München reach the UEFA Champions League final?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-05-07✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203
“Bayern is strong but faces tough competition from Real Madrid, Manchester City, and others. Recent form and knockout stage unpredictability make reaching the final challenging but possible.”
45%
NO
Will Amy Acton win the 2026 Ohio Governor Democratic primary election?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-05-05✗ WrongBrier: 0.422
“Amy Acton has not announced candidacy, faces strong Democratic field, and lacks recent political campaigning experience despite her pandemic visibility.”
35%
NO
Will Barcelona reach the UEFA Champions League final?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-05-07✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Barcelona faces strong competition from elite clubs like Manchester City, Real Madrid, and Bayern Munich. Their squad depth and recent European performances suggest they're not favorites to reach the final.”
35%
NO
Will Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) reach the UEFA Champions League final?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-05-07✗ WrongBrier: 0.422
“PSG has strong squad but Champions League knockout stages are unpredictable with many elite competitors. Historical underperformance in crucial matches reduces confidence despite talent.”
35%
NO
Will the Bank of Mexico announce a decrease at the May meeting?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-05-07✗ WrongBrier: 0.422
“Mexico's inflation remains above target, peso stability concerns, and Banxico typically maintains cautious stance. Recent data suggests holding rates more likely than cutting in May.”
35%
NO
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia decrease the target for the cash rate after the May Meeting?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-05-05✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Inflation remains above RBA's target band, labor market tight, and recent statements suggest rates likely on hold until clear progress on inflation.”
35%
NO
Will Alba Party win the most seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliament election?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-05-07✓ CorrectBrier: 0.006
“Alba Party currently holds only 1 seat in Scottish Parliament, lacks broad support compared to SNP and Labour, and recent polling shows minimal chance of winning most seats in 2026.”
8%
NO
Will Greg Landsman be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Ohio?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-05-05✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Landsman is a credible candidate but faces strong competition in a crowded Democratic primary. Ohio's political landscape favors more established statewide figures or candidates with broader appeal.”
35%
NO
Will the Bank of Mexico announce no change at the May meeting?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-05-07✗ WrongBrier: 0.723
“Banxico typically maintains rates when inflation is near target and growth is stable. With current data showing controlled inflation and moderate economic growth, a hold is the most likely outcome.”
85%
YES
Will Atlético Madrid reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-05-07✗ WrongBrier: 0.422
“Atlético Madrid historically competitive but reaching semifinals requires overcoming multiple top-tier opponents; current squad strength and competition difficulty make it challenging.”
35%
NO
Will Sherrod Brown be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Ohio?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-05-05✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“Sherrod Brown is a popular incumbent Democratic senator with strong name recognition and fundraising ability. He would be the overwhelming favorite in a Democratic primary if he seeks re-election.”
85%
YES
Will Russia capture Viroliubivka by April 30?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-30✗ WrongBrier: 0.723
“Russia has made steady territorial gains in eastern Ukraine, and Viroliubivka is a small village likely to fall as part of broader offensive pressure before the end of April.”
85%
YES
Will Shakira perform at the 2026 Todo Mundo no Rio music festival?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-05-03✗ WrongBrier: 0.422
“Shakira is a global superstar with busy touring schedule; Todo Mundo no Rio is a major Brazilian festival but not confirmed for her 2026 plans. Low probability without current booking announcements.”
35%
NO
Will Kanye West have a #1 hit in April?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Kanye has unpredictable release patterns and chart competition is intense. While possible, a #1 hit in a specific month requires coordinated promotion and timing that seems unlikely given current information.”
35%
NO
Will Russia enter Khatnie by April 30, 2026?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“Khatnie is not a recognized territory or location in geopolitical discourse. No evidence suggests Russia has plans to enter any place by this name by April 30, 2026.”
15%
NO
Will Tesla dip to $248 in April?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-05-01✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Tesla stock has been volatile but hitting a specific low like $248 in April requires precise timing. With only partial month data and typical market resilience, probability is moderate but below 50%.”
35%
NO
Will Olivia Dean have a #1 hit in April?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Olivia Dean is a rising UK soul artist but hasn't yet achieved mainstream chart dominance. Securing a #1 hit requires massive commercial momentum and timing that seems unlikely in April given current trajectory.”
35%
NO
Will Netflix reach $105 in April?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-05-01✗ WrongBrier: 0.422
“Netflix at $105 in April 2026 implies ~15% drop from current ~$124. While possible with market volatility, no major negative catalysts evident. Moderate probability given typical stock fluctuations.”
35%
NO
Will NVIDIA dip to $168 in April?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-05-01✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“NVIDIA stock has shown strong momentum and institutional support; a sharp drop to $168 from current levels (~$200+) in April 2026 would require significant negative catalysts, which seem unlikely given current trajectory.”
15%
NO
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia increase the target for the cash rate after the May Meeting?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-05-05✗ WrongBrier: 0.422
“Inflation likely moderating by 2026, RBA typically cautious with rate hikes late in cycle. May meeting often sees status quo unless strong data surprises.”
35%
NO
Will Microsoft dip to $353 in April?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-05-01✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Microsoft stock has been stable around $400+ recently. A drop to $353 (~12% decline) in 2-3 weeks is unlikely barring major market shock, though possible with volatility.”
35%
NO
Will Meta dip to $500 in April?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-05-01✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“Meta's current price is around $600, and dropping to $500 in 3 weeks would require a ~17% decline amid stable earnings and AI momentum. Possible but unlikely without major market shock.”
15%
NO
X Money released by April 30, 2026?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-30✗ WrongBrier: 0.723
“With only 18 days remaining until the deadline and X having substantial resources and motivation to launch its payment system, a release by April 30, 2026 appears highly likely.”
85%
YES
Ukraine hits Moscow by April 30, 2026?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Ukraine has limited long-range strike capability against Moscow's air defenses. Russia has reinforced Moscow's defenses significantly since 2022. While drone attacks occur, hitting Moscow proper by April 30, 2026, remains unlikely.”
35%
NO
Will MrBeast hit 485 million subscribers by April 30?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“MrBeast is at ~480M as of early 2026. Growth has slowed; gaining 5M in 18 days is unlikely without a viral surge.”
35%
NO
Will MrBeast hit 479 million subscribers by April 30?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“MrBeast is currently around 470M subscribers with 18 days remaining. His growth rate of ~1M/week suggests he'll reach 479M by April 30.”
85%
YES
Will FaZe make a roster move before May?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“FaZe historically makes roster changes after major tournaments; with the current season ending and playoffs approaching, roster moves are likely to optimize performance.”
85%
YES
Will the Central Bank of Colombia announce no change at the April meeting?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.063
“Colombia's central bank typically maintains stability-focused policy; with moderate inflation and economic growth, a hold is the most likely outcome in April.”
75%
YES
Will Amazon dip to $168 in April?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-05-01✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Amazon's current price is around $185-$190. A drop to $168 (~10-12% decline) in 2.5 weeks is unlikely without major market shock, given recent stability and earnings season.”
35%
NO
Will Tesla dip to $285 in April?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-05-01✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Tesla stock has been volatile but $285 represents a significant drop from current levels. Market momentum and recent earnings suggest support above $300 in April.”
35%
NO
Will Noah Kahan have a #1 hit in April?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Noah Kahan has had successful folk-pop hits, but achieving a #1 in April 2026 requires major chart momentum or a viral moment, which isn't currently evident. Competition is typically fierce in spring.”
35%
NO
Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 1.0% and 1.5%?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“US GDP growth typically fluctuates more widely; historical Q1 growth often falls outside this narrow 0.5% range. Recent economic volatility makes precise targeting unlikely.”
35%
NO
U.S. Congress member out over Epstein files by April 30?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Epstein files release is gradual; forced resignation of a Congress member directly linked by April 30 is unlikely given political protections and short timeframe.”
35%
NO
Will Russia capture Pokrovka by April 30?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-30✗ WrongBrier: 0.723
“Pokrovka is a key strategic town in Donetsk Oblast; Russian forces have been making steady advances in the area with significant pressure on Ukrainian defenses. Given the current momentum and timeframe, capture by April 30 appears likely.”
85%
YES
Will the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $3.50 (HIGH) by April 30, 2026?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“With only 18 days remaining, SDH100RT would need significant upward momentum from current levels to reach $3.50. GPU rental markets show stability but not extreme volatility in short windows.”
35%
NO
Will David Portnoy give another 9+ pizza review by April 30?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-30✗ WrongBrier: 0.563
“Portnoy regularly reviews pizzas and gives high scores occasionally. With 18 days remaining in April, multiple reviews are likely, increasing chance of a 9+ score.”
75%
YES
Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by April 30?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-30✗ WrongBrier: 0.723
“Russia has made significant advances in Vovchansk recently, with Ukrainian forces reporting difficult defensive positions. Given current momentum and 18 days remaining, full capture by April 30 appears likely.”
85%
YES
Will Meta reach $660 in April?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-05-01✗ WrongBrier: 0.422
“Meta stock at ~$540 currently; reaching $660 in ~3 weeks requires ~22% gain, which is aggressive given typical market volatility and no major catalysts announced.”
35%
NO
Will Aline Campos win Big Brother Brasil 26?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Big Brother Brasil winners typically emerge from strong strategic players with broad audience appeal. Without specific knowledge of Aline Campos' gameplay or popularity in BBB26, the base rate for any single contestant winning is low given the large cast and unpredictable dynamic”
35%
NO
Will Ukraine re-enter Uspenivka by April 30?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Uspenivka is a small frontline village; current military dynamics suggest incremental gains are slow and contested. By April 30, Ukrainian forces may focus elsewhere, making recapture unlikely in this short timeframe.”
35%
NO
Will the Central Bank of Colombia announce an increase at the April meeting?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Colombia's inflation has been moderating recently, and the central bank has signaled a cautious approach. With economic growth slowing, they're more likely to hold rates steady in April.”
35%
NO
Will Sarah Andrade win Big Brother Brasil 26?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Big Brother Brasil is highly unpredictable with many contestants; while Sarah Andrade may be a contender, the odds favor other players given typical voting patterns and edit visibility.”
35%
NO
Will Elon Musk post 740-759 tweets in April 2026?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-05-01✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“Elon Musk's tweet volume has declined from peak years. 740-759 tweets in one month (24-25 per day) is far above his recent average of ~5-10 per day. Unlikely to sustain that intensity for 30 days.”
15%
NO
Will the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $1.50 (LOW) by April 30, 2026?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-30✗ WrongBrier: 0.723
“With only 18 days remaining and current market volatility in GPU rental, hitting a low threshold of $1.50 is plausible given typical price fluctuations in this speculative index.”
85%
YES
Will The Bride be the March film with the highest domestic gross on April 30?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“The Bride is a niche horror film; March typically has major blockbusters like superhero or animated films that outperform horror releases domestically.”
35%
NO
Will Russia enter Stinky by April 30?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“No known location 'Stinky' in geopolitical context; likely a fictional or placeholder term, making actual military entry improbable.”
15%
NO
Will MrBeast hit 478 million subscribers by April 30?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-30✗ WrongBrier: 0.422
“MrBeast currently around 450M subscribers. Need 28M more in 18 days. Recent growth ~1M/week suggests ~2.5M possible, far short of 28M required.”
35%
NO
Will Russia enter Shevchenko by April 30?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Shevchenko appears to be a Ukrainian location; Russia's offensive momentum has slowed by April 2026, and capturing specific towns by fixed deadlines is uncertain given Ukrainian defenses and Western support.”
35%
NO
Will MrBeast hit 490 million subscribers by April 30?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-30✗ WrongBrier: 0.723
“MrBeast's subscriber growth has been accelerating, currently around 470M. With 18 days remaining and his consistent viral content, reaching 490M by April 30 is highly likely.”
85%
YES
Will the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $1.75 (LOW) by April 30, 2026?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“With only 18 days remaining, hitting a LOW target of $1.75 from current levels would require a sharp, sustained decline. While GPU rental prices fluctuate, such a specific low threshold in a short timeframe seems unlikely absent major market disruption.”
35%
NO
Will the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $4.00 (HIGH) by April 30, 2026?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“With only 18 days remaining, reaching $4.00 from current levels would require extremely rapid appreciation. H100 rental market has been volatile but such a sharp spike in under 3 weeks seems unlikely given typical market dynamics.”
35%
NO
Will Marcelo Alves win Big Brother Brasil 26?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Big Brother Brasil is highly unpredictable with many contestants; while Marcelo Alves may be a contender, the odds favor other participants given typical voting patterns and edit visibility.”
35%
NO
Iran removed from FIFA World Cup by April 30?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“FIFA rarely removes teams mid-qualification without extraordinary circumstances; Iran's participation status would likely be determined earlier than April 30.”
15%
NO
Will Russia enter Svitle by April 30?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-30✗ WrongBrier: 0.723
“Russia has been advancing steadily in the region, Svitle is strategically valuable for controlling supply lines, and with only 18 days remaining, continued momentum makes capture likely.”
85%
YES
Will Russia capture all of Ternuvate by April 30, 2026?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Ternuvate is a fictional location, but assuming it represents contested Ukrainian territory, Russian forces have made limited gains in 2026. Capturing an entire settlement by April 30 seems unlikely given current defensive lines and Western military support.”
35%
NO
Will Germany GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 0.4% and 0.6%?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-30✗ WrongBrier: 0.422
“GDP growth forecasts are inherently uncertain over a year out. A specific 0.2% range (0.4-0.6%) is narrow, making precise prediction difficult. Historical German quarterly GDP growth shows volatility, often outside such tight bands.”
35%
NO
Will Russia enter Rai-Oleksandrivka by April 30, 2026?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“Rai-Oleksandrivka is in Donetsk Oblast, an active frontline area. With Russia's ongoing offensive momentum in eastern Ukraine and 18 days remaining until April 30, territorial gains in this region are likely.”
85%
YES
Will the Bank of Canada announce an increase at the April meeting?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-29✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Current economic data shows moderating inflation and slowing growth, making a rate hike unlikely in April. The Bank of Canada typically signals changes well in advance, and no such signals have been given.”
35%
NO
Will Ipswich Town FC win on 2026-04-03?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-28✗ WrongBrier: 0.302
“Ipswich Town FC is a historically competitive Championship club, and home advantage on April 3rd gives them a slight edge over most opponents, though Championship matches are notoriously unpredictable.”
55%
YES
Will LT Overton be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-25✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“LT Overton is a defensive lineman, and quarterbacks are overwhelmingly favored as first overall picks in modern NFL drafts. The 2026 draft will likely feature top QB prospects.”
15%
NO
Will Kadyn Proctor be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-25✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“Kadyn Proctor is an offensive tackle prospect, but first overall picks typically go to quarterbacks or elite pass rushers. The 2026 draft QB class is expected to be strong, making a non-QB first pick unlikely.”
15%
NO
Will Kyron Drones be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-25✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“Kyron Drones is a promising QB prospect, but the #1 pick typically goes to the top QB or elite defensive player. Multiple top prospects (Travis Hunter, James Pearce Jr., others) are competing, and team needs will vary. Drones is not the consensus top prospect.”
15%
NO
Will Matayo Uiagalelei be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-25✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“Matayo Uiagalelei is a promising edge rusher but faces strong competition from top QB prospects in a QB-driven draft. Edge rushers rarely go #1 overall unless generational talent.”
15%
NO
Will Nico Iamaleava be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-25✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“Nico Iamaleava is a promising college QB but faces strong competition from other top prospects. Being first overall requires exceptional consensus and team needs aligning perfectly, which is uncertain.”
15%
NO
Will John Mateer be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-25✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“John Mateer is a promising quarterback prospect, but the 2026 NFL Draft's first pick is highly uncertain and depends on team needs, combine performance, and draft order. Many top prospects compete for this spot.”
15%
NO
Will Raylen Wilson be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-25✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“Raylen Wilson is a promising linebacker prospect, but linebackers are rarely drafted first overall. The #1 pick typically goes to a quarterback, elite pass rusher, or left tackle.”
15%
NO
Will Jayden Maiava be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-25✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“Jayden Maiava is a promising QB prospect but faces strong competition from higher-rated players like Julian Lewis and top defensive prospects. First overall pick typically goes to consensus top QB or generational defensive talent.”
15%
NO
Will Peter Woods be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-25✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“Peter Woods is a defensive tackle prospect, and first overall picks typically go to quarterbacks or elite offensive tackles. Defensive tackles rarely go #1 overall in modern NFL drafts.”
15%
NO
Will Caleb Downs be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-25✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“Caleb Downs is a talented safety, but safeties are rarely drafted first overall. The #1 pick typically goes to elite quarterbacks or exceptional pass rushers/tackles. His position makes him an unlikely top selection.”
15%
NO
Will David Bailey be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-25✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“David Bailey is not a widely projected top prospect for 2026 NFL Draft; first pick typically goes to elite QB or pass rusher from major college programs.”
15%
NO
Will Jeremiyah Love go top 10 in the 2026 Pro Football draft?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-23✗ WrongBrier: 0.422
“Jeremiyah Love is a promising RB prospect, but top-10 picks for running backs are increasingly rare in modern NFL drafts due to positional value trends.”
35%
NO
Will Garrett Nussmeier be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-25✓ CorrectBrier: 0.006
“Nussmeier is a promising QB prospect but faces strong competition from top 2026 draft talents like Shedeur Sanders, James Pearce Jr., and others. Being the #1 overall pick requires exceptional consensus and team need alignment.”
8%
NO
Will Jordyn Tyson be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-25✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“Jordyn Tyson is a promising WR prospect, but first overall picks are typically QBs or elite defensive players. 2026 QB class likely includes higher-value prospects.”
15%
NO
Will Reuben Bain Jr. be the second pick in the 2026 NFL draft?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-23✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“Reuben Bain Jr. is a promising defensive lineman, but being the #2 overall pick requires exceptional consensus. Many top QB/WR/OT prospects typically dominate top picks, making this unlikely.”
15%
NO
Will South Korea GDP growth in Q1 2026 be at least 2.5%?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-23✗ WrongBrier: 0.302
“South Korea's recent quarterly GDP growth has been below 2.5%, averaging around 2.0-2.3% in 2025. While 2026 Q1 could see improvement, reaching 2.5% requires stronger momentum than current indicators suggest.”
45%
NO
Will Francis Mauigoa be the second pick in the 2026 NFL draft?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-23✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“Francis Mauigoa is a promising offensive lineman, but being the #2 overall pick requires exceptional talent and positional value. Quarterbacks, elite pass rushers, and top skill players typically dominate early picks.”
15%
NO
Will Ty Simpson be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-25✓ CorrectBrier: 0.006
“Ty Simpson is a backup QB at Alabama with limited starting experience. 2026 draft class likely features more established QB prospects and top picks often go to teams needing immediate starters.”
8%
NO
Will Jalon Daniels be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-25✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“Jalon Daniels is a talented QB prospect but faces competition from top underclassmen and may not be consensus #1 material. First overall picks typically go to QBs with elite physical tools and high draft stock.”
15%
NO
Will Drew Allar be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-25✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“Drew Allar is a promising QB prospect, but being the #1 pick requires exceptional consensus. Many variables (team needs, other prospects, combine performance) make this unlikely.”
15%
NO
Will Aidan Chiles be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-25✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“Aidan Chiles is a promising QB prospect but faces strong competition from top college QBs in 2026 draft class. First overall pick typically goes to QB with elite consensus, which is uncertain for Chiles.”
15%
NO
Will Arvell Reese be the third pick in the 2026 NFL draft?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-23✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“Arvell Reese is a linebacker prospect; top-3 NFL draft picks are typically quarterbacks, elite pass rushers, or offensive tackles. Linebackers rarely go that high unless generational.”
15%
NO
Will the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) win the most seats in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-23✓ CorrectBrier: 0.000
“BSP has historically been a minor player in Tamil Nadu politics, with Dravidian parties (DMK/AIADMK) dominating. No indication of major shift by 2026.”
2%
NO
Will Garrett Nussmeier be the second pick in the 2026 NFL draft?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-23✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“Nussmeier is a promising QB prospect but unlikely to be consensus top-2 pick in 2026 draft given competition from other elite prospects and typical draft volatility.”
15%
NO
Will Arvell Reese be the second pick in the 2026 NFL draft?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-23✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“Arvell Reese is a promising linebacker prospect, but second overall picks are typically premium offensive positions (QB, OT, WR). Linebackers rarely go that high in modern drafts.”
15%
NO
Will the Communist Party of India (CPI) win the most seats in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-23✓ CorrectBrier: 0.000
“CPI has historically been a minor party in Tamil Nadu politics, typically winning only a few seats in alliance with larger Dravidian parties. The 2026 election is expected to be contested primarily between DMK and AIADMK-led alliances.”
2%
NO
Will the 1st pick in the 2026 Pro Football draft be a QB?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-23✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“Quarterbacks are typically the most valuable position in modern NFL drafts, and recent trends show QBs going first overall in most years when there's a top prospect available.”
85%
YES
Will the National People’s Party (NPEP) win the most seats in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-23✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“NPEP is a minor regional party with limited electoral presence in Tamil Nadu. Major Dravidian parties (DMK, AIADMK) and national parties dominate. Historical performance suggests very low chance of winning most seats.”
15%
NO
Will the Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam (DMDK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-23✓ CorrectBrier: 0.006
“DMDK has declined significantly since 2011 peak, currently holds no seats and lacks strong alliance positioning against dominant DMK/ADMK blocs in Tamil Nadu politics.”
8%
NO
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2025–2026 NHL Presidents' Trophy?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-20✗ WrongBrier: 0.422
“The Avalanche are a strong team, but winning the Presidents' Trophy requires exceptional regular-season consistency. With only a week left in the season, standings are largely set, and multiple teams are competitive for the top record.”
35%
NO
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025–2026 NHL Presidents' Trophy?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-20✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Winnipeg Jets are a strong regular-season team, but winning the Presidents' Trophy requires exceptional consistency over 82 games against elite competition like Colorado, Florida, and Carolina. While possible, it's statistically unlikely for any single team.”
35%
NO
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2025–2026 NHL Presidents' Trophy?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-20✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“The Presidents' Trophy is highly competitive with many strong teams. While Dallas is consistently good, winning the regular season requires exceptional consistency against all teams. Recent seasons show multiple contenders like Florida, Carolina, and Colorado.”
35%
NO
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2025–2026 NHL Presidents' Trophy?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-20✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“The Kings are a competitive team but winning the Presidents' Trophy requires the best regular-season record across 32 teams. Historically, only a few teams dominate; LA has strong contenders like Colorado, Florida, and Edmonton to overcome.”
15%
NO
Will the Philadelphia Flyers win the 2025–2026 NHL Presidents' Trophy?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-20✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“Flyers are mid-tier team with inconsistent performance; Presidents' Trophy requires elite regular-season dominance over 82 games, which they haven't demonstrated recently.”
15%
NO
Will the Chicago Blackhawks win the 2025–2026 NHL Presidents' Trophy?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-20✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“Blackhawks are rebuilding with young talent; Presidents' Trophy requires best regular-season record, which is unlikely given stronger established teams like Avalanche, Oilers, or Rangers.”
15%
NO
Will Miro Heiskanen win the 2025–2026 NHL Art Ross Trophy?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-20✓ CorrectBrier: 0.006
“Heiskanen is an elite defenseman, but the Art Ross Trophy almost always goes to forwards who accumulate far more points. Only one defenseman (Bobby Orr) has ever won it, and that was in 1975.”
8%
NO
Will Dylan Guenther win the 2025–2026 NHL Art Ross Trophy?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-20✓ CorrectBrier: 0.006
“Guenther is a promising young player, but winning the Art Ross requires elite scoring consistency over 82 games. Established superstars like McDavid, MacKinnon, and Kucherov are more likely contenders.”
8%
NO
Will Movement for Rights and Freedoms (DPS) win the most seats in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-19✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“DPS has historically been a significant minority party but rarely leads in seat counts. Recent polling shows them trailing GERB and other coalitions. Coalition dynamics and anti-corruption sentiment likely limit their ability to become largest party.”
35%
NO
Will the Calgary Flames win the 2025–2026 NHL Presidents' Trophy?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-20✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“The Flames are a mid-tier team with inconsistent performance. Multiple elite teams (Avalanche, Hurricanes, Oilers) are stronger contenders for the regular-season title.”
15%
NO
Will Macklin Celebrini win the 2025–2026 NHL Art Ross Trophy?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-20✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“Celebrini is an elite rookie but winning Art Ross requires beating established superstars like McDavid, MacKinnon, and Matthews. As a 19-year-old in his second season, it's extremely unlikely he leads the league in points.”
15%
NO
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025–2026 NHL Presidents' Trophy?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-20✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Devils have strong young core but Presidents' Trophy requires season-long dominance; Eastern Conference is highly competitive with several elite teams.”
35%
NO
Will BSP – United Left win the most seats in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-19✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“BSP-United Left has been polling in single digits, far behind GERB and PP-DB. Recent elections show center-right coalitions dominating. Coalition dynamics favor established parties over left-wing alliance.”
15%
NO
Will Pierre Gasly finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Bahrain Grand Prix?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-19✓ CorrectBrier: 0.078
“Gasly is a capable driver but podium finishes are rare outside top teams. Predicting his exact team competitiveness in 2026 is speculative, but consistent podiums unlikely without major team improvement.”
28%
NO
Will Vazrazhdane win the most seats in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-19✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Vazrazhdane is a nationalist party that has gained support but remains smaller than established parties like GERB and PP-DB. Current polling shows them around 15-20%, unlikely to surpass major coalitions in 2026.”
35%
NO
Will the Toronto Maple Leafs win the 2025–2026 NHL Presidents' Trophy?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-20✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Leafs are strong contenders but Presidents' Trophy requires exceptional regular season consistency; NHL parity makes repeat/back-to-back wins unlikely. Strong Atlantic Division competition from Florida, Boston, Detroit.”
35%
NO
Will George Russell finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Bahrain Grand Prix?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-19✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Russell is a strong driver, but predicting a specific podium finish 2 years ahead is uncertain due to team competitiveness changes, car development, and race-day variables.”
35%
NO
Will Liam Lawson finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Bahrain Grand Prix?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-19✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“Lawson likely driving for a midfield team (RB/VCARB), podium requires top-3 finish against top teams like Red Bull, Ferrari, Mercedes, McLaren. Unlikely unless exceptional circumstances.”
15%
NO
Will Morality, Unity, Honour (MECH) win the most seats in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-19✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“MECH is a relatively new coalition with limited polling data showing them as frontrunner. Established parties like GERB and PP-DB have stronger electoral infrastructure and historical performance in Bulgarian politics.”
35%
NO
Will Gabriel Bortoleto finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Bahrain Grand Prix?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-19✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Bortoleto is a promising rookie but F1 podiums are extremely competitive. In 2026, he'll likely still be developing with McLaren, facing established top drivers and teams. Bahrain podium unlikely early in his career.”
35%
NO
Will the Nashville Predators win the 2025–2026 NHL Presidents' Trophy?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-20✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“Nashville is a competitive team but Presidents' Trophy requires league-best regular season record. Historically dominated by powerhouse franchises; Nashville's roster depth and consistency unlikely to top entire NHL.”
15%
NO
Will Franco Colapinto finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Bahrain Grand Prix?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-19✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“Colapinto is a promising rookie but unlikely to podium in only his second F1 season, especially at Bahrain where top teams dominate. Podium requires exceptional circumstances.”
15%
NO
Will Valtteri Bottas finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Bahrain Grand Prix?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-19✓ CorrectBrier: 0.063
“Bottas will be 36 in 2026, likely driving for a midfield team. Podiums require top-3 finish against top teams like Red Bull, Ferrari, McLaren. Unlikely unless exceptional circumstances.”
25%
NO
Will Sergio Perez finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Bahrain Grand Prix?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-19✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Perez's performance consistency has been declining, and by 2026 he'll likely be in a less competitive team or facing stronger competition from younger drivers.”
35%
NO
Will Alliance for Rights and Freedoms (APS) win the most seats in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-19✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“APS is a relatively new coalition with limited polling data showing it leading. Established parties like GERB and PP-DB have stronger electoral infrastructure and historical performance in Bulgarian politics.”
35%
NO
Will Fijian Drua win?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-18✗ WrongBrier: 0.302
“Fijian Drua are competitive at home but face strong opposition. Without specific 2026 matchup details, historical patterns suggest they win slightly less than half of their Super Rugby Pacific matches.”
45%
NO
Will Alexander Albon finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Bahrain Grand Prix?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-19✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“Albon's Williams team unlikely to be podium-competitive by 2026 without major regulation shakeup; top teams (Red Bull, Ferrari, McLaren, Mercedes) typically dominate Bahrain podiums.”
15%
NO
Will Velichie win the most seats in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-19✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Velichie is a relatively new party with limited established support. While Bulgarian politics is fragmented, GERB or other established parties are more likely to secure the most seats in 2026.”
35%
NO
Will We Continue the Change – Democratic Bulgaria (PP–DB) win the most seats in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-19✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Recent polling shows PP-DB trailing behind GERB and other parties. Coalition fragmentation and shifting alliances make outright seat plurality unlikely despite their reformist platform.”
35%
NO
Will There Is Such a People (ITN) win the most seats in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-19✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“ITN has declined in recent polls, facing strong competition from GERB and other parties. While possible, current trends suggest they're unlikely to secure most seats in 2026.”
35%
NO
Will Fernando Alonso finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Bahrain Grand Prix?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-19✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Alonso will be 44 in 2026, likely past his prime. Podium finishes require top car performance and driver consistency against younger competitors. Bahrain is early season where reliability matters.”
35%
NO
Will Western Force win?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-18✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Western Force is a lower-tier Australian rugby team with inconsistent performance. Against stronger opponents, they typically have less than 40% win probability.”
35%
NO
Will the Nashville Predators make the NHL Playoffs?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-16✗ WrongBrier: 0.563
“Nashville has consistently been a playoff contender in recent seasons, currently positioned well in the standings with strong goaltending and defensive structure.”
75%
YES
Will Highlanders win?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-17✗ WrongBrier: 0.302
“Highlanders have home advantage and recent form suggests they're competitive, but opponent strength makes it close.”
55%
YES
Will the New York Islanders make the NHL Playoffs?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-16✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“As of April 12, 2026, the Islanders are likely near the end of the regular season and would need to be in playoff position. Without specific standings data, their inconsistent recent history and competitive Eastern Conference make qualification uncertain but unlikely.”
35%
NO
Will the St. Louis Blues make the NHL Playoffs?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-16✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“The Blues are currently outside playoff position with only a few games remaining. Their recent performance and standings gap make a late surge unlikely.”
35%
NO
Will the Detroit Red Wings make the NHL Playoffs?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-16✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Red Wings are in a competitive division, likely need multiple wins in final games while other teams falter. Recent inconsistent performance makes playoff spot unlikely.”
35%
NO
Will Brumbies win?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-17✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Brumbies are historically strong in Super Rugby, often competitive against most opponents. Without specific opponent info, leaning toward their consistent performance.”
65%
YES
Will the Winnipeg Jets make the NHL Playoffs?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-16✗ WrongBrier: 0.723
“Winnipeg Jets are a strong team with solid goaltending and defense. As of April 12, they're likely already clinched or very close to clinching a playoff spot with just days remaining in the regular season.”
85%
YES
Will the Anaheim Ducks make the NHL Playoffs?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-16✗ WrongBrier: 0.723
“Anaheim Ducks are in a rebuilding phase with young talent, but competing in a tough Pacific Division against established contenders makes playoffs unlikely in 2026.”
15%
NO
Will the Vegas Golden Knights make the NHL Playoffs?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-16✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“Vegas Golden Knights are a consistently strong team with recent playoff success, solid roster, and typically perform well in regular season standings.”
85%
YES
Will the Edmonton Oilers make the NHL Playoffs?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-16✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“Oilers are a top team with elite talent (McDavid, Draisaitl), consistently strong regular season performers, and likely clinched playoff spot well before April 16.”
85%
YES
Will the Boston Bruins make the NHL Playoffs?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-16✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“The Bruins are historically a strong franchise with consistent playoff appearances. As of April 12, 2026, they likely have secured or are very close to securing a playoff spot given their typical performance.”
85%
YES
Will the Ottawa Senators make the NHL Playoffs?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-16✗ WrongBrier: 0.422
“Ottawa Senators have been rebuilding and face tough competition in Atlantic Division. With only 4 days until season end, they'd need significant wins and competitor losses to qualify.”
35%
NO
Will the Columbus Blue Jackets make the NHL Playoffs?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-16✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“Columbus has been rebuilding with young talent but faces tough competition in the Metropolitan Division. As of April 12, 2026, they're likely mathematically eliminated or far from playoff position.”
15%
NO
Will the San Jose Sharks make the NHL Playoffs?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-16✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“Sharks are in a rebuilding phase with young roster, likely finishing near bottom of Western Conference standings in 2025-26 season.”
15%
NO
Will Argentina’s monthly inflation in March 2026 be between 3.1% and 3.3%?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-14✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“Argentina's inflation has been volatile and high; hitting such a narrow target range (3.1-3.3%) in March 2026 seems unlikely given historical variability and economic uncertainty.”
15%
NO
Will the Seattle Kraken make the NHL Playoffs?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-16✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“The Kraken are currently outside playoff position with only a few games remaining, requiring multiple teams to falter while they win out. Historical late-season comebounds are rare in NHL.”
35%
NO
Will Argentina’s monthly inflation in March 2026 be 3.7% or higher?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-14✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Argentina's inflation has been declining with stabilization efforts; hitting exactly 3.7% or higher in March 2026 seems less likely than staying below that threshold given ongoing monetary tightening and base effects.”
35%
NO
Will the Orlando Magic make the NBA Playoffs?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-12✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“The Orlando Magic have a strong young core with Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner, improved roster depth, and are currently positioned well in the Eastern Conference standings with a winning record.”
85%
YES
Will Mikal Bridges lead the NBA in steals during the 2025–26 NBA season?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-12✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“Mikal Bridges is a solid defender but has never been top-5 in steals. Players like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Dejounte Murray, and others consistently outperform him in steals per game.”
15%
NO
Will the Indiana Pacers have the worst record in the NBA?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-12✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“The Pacers have a solid young core with Tyrese Haliburton and recent playoff experience. Multiple teams are actively tanking or have weaker rosters, making them more likely candidates for worst record.”
15%
NO
Will Fidesz-KDNP win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 6-9%?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-12✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Fidesz typically wins by larger margins (10%+ in recent elections). While they remain dominant, a 6-9% margin would be unusually narrow given their structural advantages and opposition fragmentation.”
35%
NO
Will Jalen Williams lead the NBA in points during the 2025–26 NBA season?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-12✓ CorrectBrier: 0.006
“Jalen Williams is a talented young player, but leading the NBA in scoring requires elite volume and offensive role. Established stars like Luka Dončić, Giannis Antetokounmpo, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander are more likely candidates.”
8%
NO
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 0-3%?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-12✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Tisza is a minor party in Hungary's Fidesz-dominated system. National list vote margins for opposition parties are typically larger than 3%, and Tisza lacks broad national appeal to achieve such a narrow margin.”
35%
NO
Will Kawhi Leonard lead the NBA in steals during the 2025–26 NBA season?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-12✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“Kawhi is aging (will be 34-35), has chronic knee issues limiting games played, and younger players like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander or Herb Jones are more likely to lead in steals over a full season.”
15%
NO
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2025–2026 NBA Pacific Division?
Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-12✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Warriors and Clippers remain strong contenders; Suns face roster depth and injury concerns, making division win unlikely despite star talent.”
35%
NO
Will Cade Cunningham lead the NBA in points during the 2025–26 NBA season?
Apr 11 · Ends 2026-04-12✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“Cunningham is a rising star but faces stiff competition from established scorers like Luka Dončić, Giannis Antetokounmpo, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Leading the league requires exceptional volume and efficiency he hasn't yet demonstrated.”
15%
NO
Will Donovan Clingan lead the NBA in rebounds during the 2025–26 NBA season?
Apr 11 · Ends 2026-04-12✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“Clingan is a promising young center, but leading the NBA in rebounds requires elite production and durability. Established rebounders like Jokic, Sabonis, and Gobert are more likely contenders.”
15%
NO
Will Karl-Anthony Towns lead the NBA in rebounds during the 2025–26 NBA season?
Apr 11 · Ends 2026-04-12✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“Towns is a strong rebounder but has never led the league. Dominant rebounders like Jokic, Embiid, and younger centers typically claim the title. His offensive role reduces pure rebounding focus.”
15%
NO
Will Tisza win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?
Apr 11 · Ends 2026-04-12✗ WrongBrier: 0.723
“Fidesz has dominated Hungarian politics for over a decade with strong rural support and institutional advantages. Tisza is a smaller opposition party unlikely to surpass Fidesz's national list vote share in 2026.”
15%
NO
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2025–2026 NHL Presidents' Trophy?
Apr 11 · Ends 2026-04-20✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“Penguins are an aging team with declining performance; Presidents' Trophy requires best regular-season record, which is unlikely given stronger contenders like Avalanche, Oilers, or Hurricanes.”
15%
NO
Will the Democratic Coalition (DK) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?
Apr 11 · Ends 2026-04-12✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Fidesz has strong institutional advantages, controls media, and has consistently won supermajorities. DK leads opposition but faces fragmented coalition challenges and Fidesz's entrenched power.”
35%
NO
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander lead the NBA in assists during the 2025–26 NBA season?
Apr 11 · Ends 2026-04-12✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“SGA is a scoring guard, not a primary distributor. Players like Haliburton, Jokic, and Dončić consistently average higher assists. SGA's career high is 6.4 APG, far from assist leader territory.”
15%
NO
Will Jordan Poole lead the NBA in points during the 2025–26 NBA season?
Apr 11 · Ends 2026-04-12✓ CorrectBrier: 0.006
“Poole is a high-volume scorer but inconsistent, and leading the league requires elite efficiency and durability. Players like Luka, Giannis, SGA, and emerging stars are more likely contenders.”
8%
NO
Will EC Juventude win on 2026-04-12?
Apr 11 · Ends 2026-04-12✗ WrongBrier: 0.302
“Juventude has home advantage and slightly better recent form than Cuiabá, though both teams are mid-table. Home teams in Brazilian Serie A typically have a small edge.”
55%
YES
Will Cuiabá EC win on 2026-04-12?
Apr 11 · Ends 2026-04-12✗ WrongBrier: 0.302
“Home advantage in Brazilian football typically provides a slight edge, but without specific opponent or form data, confidence is moderate.”
55%
YES
Will EC Juventude vs. Cuiabá EC end in a draw?
Apr 11 · Ends 2026-04-12✗ WrongBrier: 0.518
“Draws occur in about 25-30% of Brazilian Serie A matches. Both teams are mid-table with moderate scoring records, making a draw plausible but less likely than a decisive result.”
28%
NO
Will Minnesota United FC win on 2026-04-11?
Apr 11 · Ends 2026-04-12✗ WrongBrier: 0.302
“MLS is highly competitive with frequent upsets; home/away factors and team form unknown this far out. Without specific matchup info, slight edge to opponent.”
45%
NO
Will San Jose Earthquakes win on 2026-04-11?
Apr 11 · Ends 2026-04-12✗ WrongBrier: 0.302
“MLS matches are typically close, with home advantage significant. Without specific 2026 team form data, assuming San Jose is underdog against Sporting KC on the road.”
45%
NO
Will Fidesz-KDNP win 85-99 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?
Apr 11 · Ends 2026-04-12✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Fidesz-KDNP has consistently won supermajorities (2/3+) in recent elections, typically securing 130+ seats. 85-99 seats would be a significant decline from their historical performance, making this range unlikely.”
35%
NO
Will CF Monterrey win on 2026-04-11?
Apr 11 · Ends 2026-04-12✗ WrongBrier: 0.422
“CF Monterrey is historically strong in Liga MX, often favored at home. Without specific opponent info, their consistent performance suggests better than even odds.”
65%
YES
US x Iran meeting by April 14, 2026?
Apr 11 · Ends 2026-04-14✗ WrongBrier: 0.422
“Given current tensions and no recent diplomatic breakthroughs, a formal meeting within 3 days is unlikely despite the proximity of the deadline.”
35%
NO
Will Pascal Siakam lead the NBA in points during the 2025–26 NBA season?
Apr 11 · Ends 2026-04-12✓ CorrectBrier: 0.006
“Siakam is an All-Star but not an elite volume scorer; players like Luka, Giannis, SGA, Jokic, and Tatum consistently outscore him. He's never averaged 30+ PPG.”
8%
NO
Will Draymond Green lead the NBA in assists during the 2025–26 NBA season?
Apr 11 · Ends 2026-04-12✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“Draymond Green is a skilled passer but has never led the NBA in assists. Primary playmakers like Luka Dončić, Tyrese Haliburton, and Nikola Jokić consistently dominate assist categories, and Green's role focuses more on defense and facilitation rather than high-volume playmaking.”
15%
NO
Will Donovan Mitchell lead the NBA in three pointers made during the 2025–26 NBA season?
Apr 11 · Ends 2026-04-12✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“Mitchell is a high-volume shooter but has never led the league in 3PM. Players like Curry, Thompson, and younger specialists consistently outpace him in total makes.”
15%
NO
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?
Apr 11 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Saudi Aramco's market cap (~$2T) trails Apple (~$3T) and Microsoft (~$3T). Oil price volatility and tech sector growth make overtaking unlikely by April 30.”
35%
NO
US x Iran meeting by April 13, 2026?
Apr 11 · Ends 2026-04-13✗ WrongBrier: 0.422
“Given current tensions and no recent diplomatic breakthroughs, a formal meeting within 2 days is unlikely despite the proximity of the deadline.”
35%
NO
Will San Diego FC win on 2026-04-11?
Apr 11 · Ends 2026-04-12✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203
“MLS matches are highly unpredictable; without specific opponent or form data, assume slight disadvantage for home team in a roughly balanced league.”
45%
NO
Will Analilia Mejia win the NJ-11 special election?
Apr 11 · Ends 2026-04-16✗ WrongBrier: 0.422
“NJ-11 is a Republican-leaning district; special elections typically favor the party not in the White House. Mejia is a Democrat in a challenging environment.”
35%
NO
Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 110 seats?
Apr 11 · Ends 2026-04-12✗ WrongBrier: 0.563
“Fidesz-KDNP has consistently won supermajorities in recent Hungarian elections, with 135 seats in 2022 and 133 in 2018. While opposition coordination may reduce margins, their structural advantages and electoral system favor continued strong performance.”
75%
YES
Will Fidesz-KDNP win 36-40% of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election?
Apr 11 · Ends 2026-04-12✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“Fidesz has consistently won 40-50% of votes in recent elections, with strong institutional advantages and opposition fragmentation. 36-40% range is highly likely given their established base.”
85%
YES
Will Andrew Nembhard lead the NBA in assists during the 2025–26 NBA season?
Apr 11 · Ends 2026-04-12✓ CorrectBrier: 0.006
“Nembhard is a solid guard but not a primary playmaker on his team. Historically, assist leaders are high-usage point guards on teams with offensive systems built around their distribution. He's unlikely to reach the volume needed (typically 10+ assists per game).”
8%
NO
Will GERB-SDS (GERB–SDS) win the most seats in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?
Apr 11 · Ends 2026-04-19✗ WrongBrier: 0.422
“GERB-SDS has been the dominant political force in Bulgaria for over a decade, consistently winning or placing first in recent elections. While facing challenges from reformist coalitions, their established voter base and organizational strength give them an edge.”
65%
YES
Will Devin Booker lead the NBA in points during the 2025–26 NBA season?
Apr 11 · Ends 2026-04-12✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Booker is elite but faces competition from Luka, Giannis, SGA, and emerging stars. He's never led the league in scoring, and team balance with Durant reduces his volume.”
35%
NO
Will T.J. Parker be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft?
Apr 11 · Ends 2026-04-25✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“T.J. Parker is a promising defensive end prospect, but first overall picks typically go to elite quarterbacks or generational offensive talents. The 2026 draft class likely features several QB prospects who will be prioritized.”
15%
NO
US x Iran meeting by April 12, 2026?
Apr 11 · Ends 2026-04-12✗ WrongBrier: 0.422
“Given the current date is April 11, 2026, and no meeting has been announced, arranging a high-level US-Iran meeting within 24 hours is extremely unlikely due to diplomatic protocols and ongoing tensions.”
35%
NO
Will Bologna reach the UEFA Europa League semifinal?
Apr 11 · Ends 2026-05-08✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Bologna is a solid Serie A team but lacks deep European experience. Reaching semifinals requires beating multiple stronger, more experienced European sides over two legs, which is challenging.”
35%
NO
Will Jake Knapp win the 2026 Masters tournament?
Apr 11 · Ends 2026-04-13✓ CorrectBrier: 0.006
“Jake Knapp is a promising PGA Tour player but winning the Masters requires elite performance against the world's best. While possible, historical odds for non-superstars are low.”
8%
NO
Will Tisza win at least 90 seats?
Apr 11 · Ends 2026-04-12✗ WrongBrier: 0.422
“Tisza is a new party; 90 seats requires ~45% of vote share, which is extremely high for a new entrant in Hungary's fragmented opposition landscape.”
35%
NO
Will Tisza win 120-129 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?
Apr 11 · Ends 2026-04-12✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203
“Tisza's seat projections are uncertain, but 120-129 is a narrow range. Recent polls and electoral system favor Fidesz, making this specific outcome less likely than alternatives.”
45%
NO
Will Sam Leavitt be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft?
Apr 11 · Ends 2026-04-25✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“Sam Leavitt is a promising QB prospect, but the 2026 draft class has several top QB contenders and team needs are unpredictable two years out. He's not currently projected as consensus #1.”
15%
NO
Will Barcelona reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal?
Apr 11 · Ends 2026-05-07✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203
“Barcelona faces strong competition in quarterfinals and potential later rounds. Recent Champions League history shows they've struggled against top European sides, making semifinal advancement uncertain.”
45%
NO
Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 2.5% and 3.0%?
Apr 11 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“US GDP growth typically fluctuates; hitting a narrow 0.5% range (2.5-3.0%) is relatively low probability given historical volatility and economic uncertainty two years out.”
35%
NO
U.S. evacuates Baghdad Embassy by April 30?
Apr 11 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“Embassy evacuations are rare, high-stakes decisions requiring imminent threat. No current public indication of such threat by April 30, 2026. Diplomatic presence typically maintained despite tensions.”
15%
NO
Will Miller Moss be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft?
Apr 11 · Ends 2026-04-25✓ CorrectBrier: 0.006
“Miller Moss is a USC quarterback with potential but faces strong competition from top prospects like Arch Manning and top defensive players. First overall picks typically go to QBs from elite programs or generational talents, and Moss isn't currently projected as the consensus to”
8%
NO
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win more than 43.5 regular season games in 2025–26?
Apr 11 · Ends 2026-04-12✓ CorrectBrier: 0.102
“The 76ers have a strong core with Embiid and Maxey, plus recent roster improvements. 44+ wins is reasonable in the Eastern Conference given their talent level and coaching.”
68%
YES
Will Robert MacIntyre win the 2026 Masters tournament?
Apr 11 · Ends 2026-04-13✓ CorrectBrier: 0.006
“MacIntyre is a solid golfer but winning the Masters requires exceptional performance against elite competition. Historical winners are typically top-ranked players with major championship experience.”
8%
NO
Will Cameron Smith win the 2026 Masters tournament?
Apr 11 · Ends 2026-04-13✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“Cameron Smith is a talented golfer and past major champion, but winning The Masters requires exceptional form and consistency. With many elite competitors and the tournament's difficulty, his chances are relatively low.”
15%
NO
Will Andrew Novak win the 2026 Masters tournament?
Apr 11 · Ends 2026-04-13✓ CorrectBrier: 0.006
“Andrew Novak is a PGA Tour player but not among top contenders for majors. The Masters typically favors elite players with major experience. Many higher-ranked golfers are more likely winners.”
8%
NO
Will Elon Musk post 1120-1159 tweets in April 2026?
Apr 11 · Ends 2026-05-01✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“Elon Musk's tweet volume has declined from peak years. 1120-1159 tweets in one month (37-39/day) is far above his recent average of ~10-15/day. Unlikely to sustain such extreme frequency.”
15%
NO
US x Iran meeting by April 30, 2026?
Apr 11 · Ends 2026-04-30✗ WrongBrier: 0.422
“Persistent tensions, no recent diplomatic breakthroughs, and limited time remaining make a formal meeting unlikely by April 30.”
35%
NO
Will voter turnout be 71–74% in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?
Apr 11 · Ends 2026-04-12✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Hungarian turnout has been 69-70% in recent parliamentary elections. A jump to 71-74% would require unusually high mobilization, which seems unlikely given current political climate.”
35%
NO
Will voter turnout be 77–80% in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?
Apr 11 · Ends 2026-04-12✗ WrongBrier: 0.422
“Hungarian parliamentary elections historically have turnout around 70-75%. Recent trends show declining participation, making 77-80% unlikely without major mobilization.”
35%
NO
Will Jakob Poeltl lead the NBA in rebounds during the 2025–26 NBA season?
Apr 11 · Ends 2026-04-12✓ CorrectBrier: 0.006
“Poeltl is a solid rebounder but not elite. Players like Jokic, Embiid, Sabonis, Gobert, and younger stars consistently out-rebound him. Leading the league requires exceptional volume he hasn't shown.”
8%
NO
Will Anthony Davis lead the NBA in rebounds during the 2025–26 NBA season?
Apr 11 · Ends 2026-04-12✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Davis is elite but injury-prone; younger centers like Wembanyama, Gobert, and Sabonis consistently out-rebound him over full seasons. He hasn't led the league since 2015.”
35%
NO
Will Cam Thomas lead the NBA in points during the 2025–26 NBA season?
Apr 11 · Ends 2026-04-12✓ CorrectBrier: 0.006
“Cam Thomas is a talented scorer but not an elite volume scorer. He'd need to surpass Luka, Giannis, SGA, Jokic, etc., which is highly unlikely given his role and team context.”
8%
NO
Will Moussa Diabate lead the NBA in rebounds during the 2025–26 NBA season?
Apr 11 · Ends 2026-04-12✓ CorrectBrier: 0.001
“Moussa Diabate is a role player with limited minutes, not among top rebounders. Leading NBA requires elite production and starter role he hasn't shown.”
3%
NO
Will TISZA win 50-54% of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election?
Apr 11 · Ends 2026-04-12✗ WrongBrier: 0.422
“TISZA is a new opposition party with momentum, but achieving 50-54% of national list votes in Hungary's polarized system is extremely difficult. Fidesz typically dominates, and vote splitting among opposition parties makes this threshold unlikely.”
35%
NO
Will Amen Thompson lead the NBA in rebounds during the 2025–26 NBA season?
Apr 11 · Ends 2026-04-12✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“Amen Thompson is a guard/forward, not a traditional big man. Rebounding leaders are typically centers who play heavy minutes and focus on interior play. While he's athletic, leading the league requires elite positioning and consistent high-volume rebounding.”
15%
NO
Will Jalen Brunson lead the NBA in assists during the 2025–26 NBA season?
Apr 11 · Ends 2026-04-12✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“Brunson is a scoring guard, not a primary distributor. Players like Haliburton, Jokic, and Dončić consistently average higher assists. Brunson's career-high is 6.7 APG, far from assist leader territory.”
15%
NO
Will Jordan Poole lead the NBA in steals during the 2025–26 NBA season?
Apr 11 · Ends 2026-04-12✓ CorrectBrier: 0.006
“Jordan Poole has never been a top steals leader; his career high is 1.1 steals per game. Elite defenders like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Dejounte Murray, and others consistently rank higher. Poole's offensive-focused role makes this extremely unlikely.”
8%
NO
Will Alex Caruso lead the NBA in steals during the 2025–26 NBA season?
Apr 11 · Ends 2026-04-12✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“Caruso is an elite defender but has never led the league in steals. Younger players like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, De'Aaron Fox, and others consistently post higher steal totals. At age 31 in 2025-26, his role and minutes may limit his counting stats.”
15%
NO
Will Isaiah Collier lead the NBA in assists during the 2025–26 NBA season?
Apr 11 · Ends 2026-04-12✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“Collier is a promising young guard, but leading the league in assists typically requires established playmakers with high usage on elite offenses. He's unlikely to surpass veterans like Haliburton, Jokic, or Dončić in his second season.”
15%
NO
Will Kristaps Porzingis lead the NBA in three pointers made during the 2025–26 NBA season?
Apr 11 · Ends 2026-04-12✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“Porzingis is a good shooter but not a high-volume three-point specialist. Players like Curry, Thompson, and younger shooters typically lead this category with much higher attempt rates.”
15%
NO
Will Jarrett Allen lead the NBA in rebounds during the 2025–26 NBA season?
Apr 11 · Ends 2026-04-12✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“Allen is a strong rebounder but faces competition from elite rebounders like Jokic, Sabonis, Gobert, and emerging players. Leading the league requires exceptional consistency and minutes.”
15%
NO
Will Tyrese Maxey lead the NBA in steals during the 2025–26 NBA season?
Apr 11 · Ends 2026-04-12✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“Maxey is not a high-volume steals player; he averaged 1.0 SPG in 2024-25. Players like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, De'Aaron Fox, or Alex Caruso are more likely contenders.”
15%
NO
Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 60 seats?
Apr 11 · Ends 2026-04-12✗ WrongBrier: 0.723
“Fidesz-KDNP has consistently won supermajorities in recent Hungarian elections, with 2022 results giving them 135/199 seats. Barring major political shifts, they should easily exceed 60 seats threshold.”
85%
YES
Will Sam Hauser lead the NBA in three pointers made during the 2025–26 NBA season?
Apr 11 · Ends 2026-04-12✓ CorrectBrier: 0.006
“Sam Hauser is a solid role player but not a high-volume shooter like Stephen Curry, Luka Dončić, or Damian Lillard who typically lead this category. He lacks the minutes and offensive role needed to compete for the league lead.”
8%
NO
Will Mark Williams lead the NBA in rebounds during the 2025–26 NBA season?
Apr 11 · Ends 2026-04-12✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“Mark Williams is a promising rebounder but faces competition from established elite rebounders like Jokic, Sabonis, and Gobert. Injuries limited his 2024-25 season, making a rebound title leap unlikely in one year.”
15%
NO
Will Brice Sensabaugh lead the NBA in three pointers made during the 2025–26 NBA season?
Apr 11 · Ends 2026-04-12✓ CorrectBrier: 0.000
“Brice Sensabaugh is a young role player with limited minutes and three-point volume. Leading the NBA requires elite shooting volume and minutes he's unlikely to achieve in 2025-26.”
2%
NO
Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 70 seats?
Apr 11 · Ends 2026-04-12✗ WrongBrier: 0.723
“Fidesz-KDNP has consistently won supermajorities in recent Hungarian elections, with 135 seats in 2022. Current polling suggests continued strong support, making 70+ seats highly likely.”
85%
YES
Will voter turnout be 80%+ in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?
Apr 11 · Ends 2026-04-12✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“Hungarian parliamentary elections historically have turnout around 70% (2022: 69.6%, 2018: 70.2%). 80%+ would require unprecedented mobilization, which seems unlikely given recent trends.”
15%
NO
Will Bohemians Praha 1905 win on 2026-04-11?
Apr 11 · Ends 2026-04-11✗ WrongBrier: 0.422
“Bohemians Praha 1905 is a mid-table Czech First League team with inconsistent form. Without specific opponent info, they typically win less than 40% of matches, especially against stronger sides.”
35%
NO
Will FC Juárez win on 2026-04-10?
Apr 11 · Ends 2026-04-11✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203
“FC Juárez historically struggles against Tijuana, especially away. Without specific 2026 lineup info, historical patterns suggest lower win probability.”
45%
NO
Will FC Machida Zelvia win on 2026-04-11?
Apr 11 · Ends 2026-04-11✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203
“Machida Zelvia is a strong J1 League team with solid recent form, but match outcomes depend on opponent, location, and day-of factors. Slight edge to home team.”
55%
YES
Will West Bromwich Albion FC vs. Millwall FC end in a draw?
Apr 11 · Ends 2026-04-11✗ WrongBrier: 0.518
“Championship matches typically have ~25% draw rate. West Brom at home vs mid-table Millwall suggests one team more likely to win, though rivalry could increase draw chance slightly.”
28%
NO
Will Melbourne Victory FC win on 2026-04-11?
Apr 11 · Ends 2026-04-11✗ WrongBrier: 0.302
“Melbourne Victory is historically strong at home, but opponent and form unknown. Slight edge given home advantage in A-League.”
55%
YES
Will América FC win on 2026-04-11?
Apr 10 · Ends 2026-04-11✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203
“América FC is mid-table in Brazilian Série A, facing a stronger opponent. Home advantage insufficient to overcome quality gap.”
45%
NO
Will Club Puebla win on 2026-04-10?
Apr 10 · Ends 2026-04-11✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203
“Club Puebla has been inconsistent in recent seasons, often struggling away from home. Without specific opponent or venue info, default to slightly below even odds.”
45%
NO
Will Yokohama F·Marinos win on 2026-04-11?
Apr 10 · Ends 2026-04-11✗ WrongBrier: 0.302
“Yokohama F·Marinos are typically strong in J1 League, but specific opponent and form unknown. Slight edge given home advantage and historical performance.”
55%
YES
Will Fidesz-KDNP win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 9%+?
Apr 10 · Ends 2026-04-12✗ WrongBrier: 0.723
“Fidesz has consistently dominated Hungarian elections since 2010, winning by large margins. In 2022 they won the national list by 20+ points. Barring major political shifts, a 9%+ victory in 2026 remains highly likely.”
85%
YES
Will the Virginia redistricting referendum pass?
Apr 10 · Ends 2026-04-21✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Virginia has passed redistricting reform measures before with bipartisan support. Current political climate favors anti-gerrymandering reforms, and referendum language typically receives voter approval when framed as increasing fairness.”
65%
YES
Will West Bromwich Albion FC win on 2026-04-11?
Apr 10 · Ends 2026-04-11✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203
“West Brom's form is inconsistent, and the opponent (likely Millwall) is tough at home. Historical matchups show close contests with no clear favorite.”
45%
NO
Will Leicester City FC win on 2026-04-11?
Apr 10 · Ends 2026-04-11✗ WrongBrier: 0.302
“Leicester likely stronger than Swansea in Championship, home advantage, but football unpredictable. Slight edge to Leicester.”
55%
YES
Will Millwall FC win on 2026-04-11?
Apr 10 · Ends 2026-04-11✓ CorrectBrier: 0.176
“Millwall is away to West Brom, who are typically stronger at home. Historical performance and league position favor West Brom in this Championship fixture.”
42%
NO
US x Iran meeting by April 11, 2026?
Apr 10 · Ends 2026-04-11✗ WrongBrier: 0.422
“Given current tensions and no imminent diplomatic breakthrough reported, a formal US-Iran meeting within 24 hours seems unlikely despite occasional backchannel contacts.”
35%
NO
Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 100 seats?
Apr 10 · Ends 2026-04-12✗ WrongBrier: 0.723
“Fidesz-KDNP has consistently won supermajorities in recent Hungarian elections, with 135 seats in 2022. Electoral system favors them, and opposition remains fragmented.”
85%
YES
Will Auckland FC vs. Melbourne Victory FC end in a draw?
Apr 10 · Ends 2026-04-11✗ WrongBrier: 0.518
“A-League matches historically have low draw rates (~25%). Both teams typically play attacking styles, reducing draw likelihood further.”
28%
NO
Will Queens Park Rangers FC win on 2026-04-11?
Apr 10 · Ends 2026-04-11✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“QPR historically inconsistent, away match against Brighton (likely Premier League side) favors home team advantage. Championship vs Premier League gap significant.”
35%
NO
Will Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Shanghai Haigang FC end in a draw?
Apr 10 · Ends 2026-04-11✓ CorrectBrier: 0.078
“Derbies often produce decisive results; Shanghai Haigang is historically stronger; draws in high-stakes Shanghai derbies are relatively uncommon.”
28%
NO
Will Kyōto Sanga FC win on 2026-04-11?
Apr 10 · Ends 2026-04-11✗ WrongBrier: 0.422
“Kyōto Sanga has been mid-table in J1 League, facing strong opponents. Without specific opponent info, assume moderate difficulty. Historical performance suggests underdog status in many matches.”
35%
NO
Will Henan FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC end in a draw?
Apr 10 · Ends 2026-04-11✓ CorrectBrier: 0.078
“Shandong Taishan is historically stronger in Chinese Super League, draws occur in ~25-30% of matches, but Henan is typically weaker. Lower draw probability.”
28%
NO
Will Gwangju FC vs. Bucheon FC 1995 end in a draw?
Apr 10 · Ends 2026-04-11✓ CorrectBrier: 0.078
“K League 2 matches historically have around 25-30% draw rate. Gwangju FC is typically stronger than Bucheon FC 1995, making a decisive result more likely than a draw.”
28%
NO
Will Stoke City FC win on 2026-04-11?
Apr 10 · Ends 2026-04-11✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203
“Stoke City's inconsistent form, mid-table position, and typical Championship unpredictability make a win less likely than not.”
45%
NO
Will Southampton FC win on 2026-04-11?
Apr 10 · Ends 2026-04-11✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203
“Southampton at home against Derby County in April 2026. Southampton likely in higher division with stronger squad, but Championship matches can be unpredictable. Slight home advantage favors Saints.”
55%
YES
Will Fidesz-KDNP win 100-114 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?
Apr 10 · Ends 2026-04-12✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203
“Fidesz-KDNP has consistently won supermajorities (over 114 seats) in recent elections, making a drop to 100-114 seats less likely but possible given potential opposition gains.”
45%
NO
Will Hull City AFC win on 2026-04-11?
Apr 10 · Ends 2026-04-11✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203
“Hull City is away at Sheffield United on 2026-04-11. As a mid-table Championship team playing away against a historically strong opponent, their chances are slightly below even.”
45%
NO
Will Oxford United FC win on 2026-04-11?
Apr 10 · Ends 2026-04-11✗ WrongBrier: 0.302
“Oxford United faces Watford, a stronger Championship side. Home advantage helps but Watford's squad quality and league position suggest Oxford are underdogs.”
45%
NO
Will Coventry City FC win on 2026-04-11?
Apr 10 · Ends 2026-04-11✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203
“Coventry City is a mid-table Championship team with inconsistent form. Without specific opponent info, home advantage gives some chance but not >50%.”
45%
NO
Will Epstein Data Set 13 be released by April 30?
Apr 10 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Epstein-related data releases have historically faced legal delays and resistance. With only 20 days remaining, insufficient time for complex legal processes and redactions.”
35%
NO
Will Stoke City FC vs. Blackburn Rovers FC end in a draw?
Apr 10 · Ends 2026-04-11✗ WrongBrier: 0.518
“Championship matches historically have ~25-30% draw rate. Both teams mid-table with moderate scoring, but home advantage for Stoke slightly reduces draw likelihood.”
28%
NO
Will Charlton Athletic FC win on 2026-04-11?
Apr 10 · Ends 2026-04-11✓ CorrectBrier: 0.176
“Charlton Athletic is a League One club facing Preston North End (Championship side) in a cup context. Lower division teams typically have ~40% chance against higher-tier opponents in such matches.”
42%
NO
Will Portsmouth FC win on 2026-04-11?
Apr 10 · Ends 2026-04-11✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203
“Portsmouth at home with decent form, but opponent unknown. Slight edge based on home advantage and typical Championship competitiveness.”
55%
YES
Will Birmingham City FC vs. Wrexham AFC end in a draw?
Apr 10 · Ends 2026-04-11✓ CorrectBrier: 0.078
“Birmingham City is a Championship-level club while Wrexham is League One level; home advantage and quality difference make a draw less likely than a home win.”
28%
NO
Will Middlesbrough FC vs. Portsmouth FC end in a draw?
Apr 10 · Ends 2026-04-11✓ CorrectBrier: 0.078
“Championship matches historically have ~25-30% draw rate. Both teams competitive but not evenly matched enough for high draw probability.”
28%
NO
Will Birmingham City FC win on 2026-04-11?
Apr 10 · Ends 2026-04-11✗ WrongBrier: 0.302
“Birmingham City's inconsistent form, Wrexham's strong home advantage, and the unpredictable nature of Championship football make a win less likely than not.”
45%
NO
Will Middlesbrough FC win on 2026-04-11?
Apr 10 · Ends 2026-04-11✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203
“Middlesbrough's inconsistent form, away fixture against a mid-table opponent, and lack of specific 2026 team context suggest slightly below even odds.”
45%
NO
Will FC Seoul vs. Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors FC end in a draw?
Apr 10 · Ends 2026-04-11✓ CorrectBrier: 0.078
“Jeonbuk is historically stronger, FC Seoul inconsistent, K-League draws occur in ~25% of matches but rivalry games often decisive.”
28%
NO
Will the match end in a draw?
Apr 10 · Ends 2026-04-11✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Chess championship matches typically have decisive results; draws are common but less likely than decisive outcomes in high-stakes final rounds.”
35%
NO
Will Tisza win 110–119 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?
Apr 10 · Ends 2026-04-12✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Tisza (Fidesz) typically wins supermajorities (2/3+) in Hungarian elections, making 110-119 seats (out of 199) a relatively low count compared to their historical performance and current polling.”
35%
NO
Will Russia capture Sofiivka by April 30?
Apr 10 · Ends 2026-04-30✗ WrongBrier: 0.563
“Sofiivka is a small settlement in Donetsk Oblast; Russia has been making incremental territorial gains in the region, and with 20 days remaining, continued pressure makes capture likely.”
75%
YES
Will Avispa Fukuoka win on 2026-04-11?
Apr 10 · Ends 2026-04-11✗ WrongBrier: 0.302
“Avispa Fukuoka is a mid-table J1 League team with inconsistent form. Without specific opponent or home/away context, they win roughly 40-45% of matches against average opponents.”
45%
NO
Will the match end in a draw?
Apr 10 · Ends 2026-04-11✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Chess championship matches typically have decisive results; draws are common but less likely than decisive outcomes in high-stakes final games.”
35%
NO
Will Tromsø IL win on 2026-04-11?
Apr 10 · Ends 2026-04-11✗ WrongBrier: 0.302
“Tromsø IL is a mid-table Norwegian club facing an unknown opponent on 2026-04-11. Without specific opponent or form data, home advantage is moderate but not decisive. Slightly favor opponent or draw.”
45%
NO
Will V-Varen Nagasaki win on 2026-04-11?
Apr 10 · Ends 2026-04-11✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203
“V-Varen Nagasaki is a mid-table J2 League team with inconsistent form. Without specific opponent or home/away context, their win probability is slightly below even.”
45%
NO
Will Auckland FC win on 2026-04-11?
Apr 10 · Ends 2026-04-11✗ WrongBrier: 0.250
“No specific information about teams, form, or opponent available. Without data, default to even chance.”
50%
YES
Will FK Dukla Praha win on 2026-04-11?
Apr 10 · Ends 2026-04-11✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203
“Dukla Praha is a mid-table Czech second division team with inconsistent form. Without specific opponent or home/away context, assuming roughly equal chance but slightly favoring opponent due to typical league parity.”
45%
NO
Will FK Pardubice win on 2026-04-11?
Apr 10 · Ends 2026-04-11✗ WrongBrier: 0.302
“No specific match data available; Czech First League is competitive with frequent draws and upsets. Without team form or opponent info, slightly favor against win.”
45%
NO
Will Chongqing Tonglianglong FC vs. Wuhan San Zhen FC end in a draw?
Apr 10 · Ends 2026-04-11✓ CorrectBrier: 0.078
“Soccer matches typically have ~25% draw rates. Without specific team form data, defaulting to slightly below average draw probability for a Chinese league match.”
28%
NO
Will Henan FC win on 2026-04-11?
Apr 10 · Ends 2026-04-11✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203
“Henan FC has inconsistent away form, facing a mid-table opponent. Historical matchups show mixed results, giving slight edge to home team.”
45%
NO
Will Western Sydney Wanderers FC vs. Sydney FC end in a draw?
Apr 10 · Ends 2026-04-11✓ CorrectBrier: 0.078
“Sydney derbies historically have low draw rates (~25%), with both teams typically playing aggressively for bragging rights. Recent form favors decisive results.”
28%
NO
Will the match end in a draw?
Apr 10 · Ends 2026-04-11✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Chess championship matches typically have decisive results; draws are common but less likely than decisive outcomes in high-stakes final games.”
35%
NO
Will Newcastle United Jets FC win on 2026-04-11?
Apr 10 · Ends 2026-04-11✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Newcastle Jets have inconsistent form, away matches are challenging, and opponent strength/context unknown but generally low probability for any single A-League away win.”
35%
NO
Will Kashiwa Reysol win on 2026-04-11?
Apr 10 · Ends 2026-04-11✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203
“J-League matches are unpredictable; without specific opponent or form data, assume slight disadvantage for away/neutral games.”
45%
NO
Will Wuhan San Zhen FC win on 2026-04-11?
Apr 10 · Ends 2026-04-11✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203
“Wuhan San Zhen FC is a lower-tier Chinese football club with inconsistent performance. Without specific opponent information or recent form data, assuming they're underdogs in most matchups.”
45%
NO
Will Saracens win?
Apr 10 · Ends 2026-04-11✗ WrongBrier: 0.422
“Saracens are historically strong in European rugby, often favored in knockout matches. Without specific opponent info, their track record suggests better than even odds.”
65%
YES
Will Sydney FC win on 2026-04-11?
Apr 10 · Ends 2026-04-11✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203
“Sydney FC has home advantage and typically performs well in April matches, but A-League games are often competitive with unpredictable outcomes.”
55%
YES
Will FK Teplice win on 2026-04-11?
Apr 10 · Ends 2026-04-11✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“FK Teplice is historically a mid-table Czech First League team with inconsistent away form. Without specific opponent or lineup information, they're unlikely to be favored in an away match.”
35%
NO
Will Bulls win?
Apr 10 · Ends 2026-04-11✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203
“Bulls are underdogs against Rueuchamp-GLA based on recent performance and standings. Historical matchups favor the opponent.”
45%
NO
Will Club León FC win on 2026-04-10?
Apr 10 · Ends 2026-04-11✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203
“Club León is historically strong in Liga MX, but specific opponent and form unknown for this 2026 match. Slight edge given to home team advantage if playing at home.”
55%
YES
Will Western Sydney Wanderers FC win on 2026-04-11?
Apr 10 · Ends 2026-04-11✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203
“Sydney FC typically stronger historically, home advantage for Sydney, Wanderers inconsistent away form, but derbies unpredictable.”
45%
NO
Will FC Hradec Králové win on 2026-04-11?
Apr 10 · Ends 2026-04-11✗ WrongBrier: 0.302
“FC Hradec Králové is a mid-table Czech First League team with inconsistent form; home advantage exists but opponent quality and match context unknown. Slight edge to opponent or draw.”
45%
NO
Will Shandong Taishan FC win on 2026-04-11?
Apr 10 · Ends 2026-04-11✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203
“Shandong Taishan is historically strong in Chinese Super League, but specific opponent and form unknown. Slight edge to home team.”
55%
YES
Will FC Machida Zelvia vs. Kashiwa Reysol end in a draw?
Apr 10 · Ends 2026-04-11✓ CorrectBrier: 0.032
“J-League matches historically have low draw rates (~25%), and both teams typically play for results rather than settling for draws in regular season play.”
18%
NO
Will FC Utrecht win on 2026-04-11?
Apr 10 · Ends 2026-04-11✗ WrongBrier: 0.302
“FC Utrecht is historically inconsistent, facing Telstar who may be motivated. Without specific 2026 form data, slight edge to underdog in Eredivisie context.”
45%
NO
Will Al Nassr Saudi Club win on 2026-04-11?
Apr 10 · Ends 2026-04-11✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Al Nassr is a strong Saudi club with Cristiano Ronaldo, likely favored in most domestic matches, though opponent and venue unknown.”
65%
YES
Will Naoyuki Kataoka win the 2026 Masters tournament?
Apr 10 · Ends 2026-04-13✓ CorrectBrier: 0.006
“Naoyuki Kataoka is not a known professional golfer on major tours; winning The Masters typically requires elite PGA Tour status and prior major experience.”
8%
NO
Will Viking FK vs. FK Bodø/Glimt end in a draw?
Apr 10 · Ends 2026-04-11✓ CorrectBrier: 0.078
“Bodø/Glimt is historically stronger in Norwegian Eliteserien, with Viking having home advantage but lower draw frequency in recent head-to-head matches.”
28%
NO
Will FC Utrecht vs. Telstar 1963 end in a draw?
Apr 10 · Ends 2026-04-11✓ CorrectBrier: 0.032
“FC Utrecht is a top-tier Eredivisie club while Telstar plays in the second division. Significant quality gap makes a draw unlikely, though cup matches can be unpredictable.”
18%
NO
Will Liaoning Tieren FC win on 2026-04-11?
Apr 10 · Ends 2026-04-11✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203
“Liaoning Tieren FC is a lower-tier Chinese football team with inconsistent performance. Without specific opponent or venue information, assuming they face stronger competition, win probability is slightly below even.”
45%
NO
Will Reds win?
Apr 10 · Ends 2026-04-11✗ WrongBrier: 0.302
“Reds have home advantage and slightly better recent form than their opponent, giving them a modest edge in this matchup.”
55%
YES
Will Fernando Mendoza be the second pick in the 2026 NFL draft?
Apr 10 · Ends 2026-04-23✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“Fernando Mendoza is a college QB prospect with limited starting experience; 2nd overall pick typically goes to elite QB or top non-QB talent. Many higher-rated prospects likely available.”
15%
NO
Will Toulon win?
Apr 10 · Ends 2026-04-11✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203
“Toulon is a historically strong rugby club with home advantage likely, but opponent quality and specific match context unknown. Slight edge given to home team.”
55%
YES
Will Sporting CP reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal?
Apr 10 · Ends 2026-05-07✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“Sporting CP is a strong Portuguese club but historically faces tough competition from elite European teams in later knockout stages. Reaching semifinals requires overcoming multiple top-tier opponents, making it unlikely though not impossible.”
15%
NO
Will Babu Santana win Big Brother Brasil 26?
Apr 10 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“Babu Santana is a past winner (BBB20), and Big Brother Brasil rarely has repeat winners. The show favors new contestants, and with many strong competitors, his chances are low.”
15%
NO
Will Francis Mauigoa be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft?
Apr 10 · Ends 2026-04-25✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“Francis Mauigoa is a promising offensive lineman, but first overall picks typically go to elite quarterbacks or game-changing defensive players. The 2026 draft will likely feature QB prospects with higher draft capital.”
15%
NO
Will Ceará SC win on 2026-04-11?
Apr 10 · Ends 2026-04-11✗ WrongBrier: 0.302
“Ceará SC has home advantage and moderate form, but Brazilian football is unpredictable. Slight edge to home team.”
55%
YES
Will Glasgow Warriors win?
Apr 10 · Ends 2026-04-11✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Glasgow Warriors are typically strong at home, and while rugby is unpredictable, they have a solid record in domestic competitions.”
65%
YES
Will March 2026 be the 2nd hottest on record?
Apr 10 · Ends 2026-04-10✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“March 2026 is likely to be warm due to ongoing climate trends, but statistical probability of being exactly 2nd hottest (rather than 1st, 3rd, or outside top 3) is relatively low given natural variability and record concentration in recent years.”
35%
NO
Will Al Najmah Saudi Club win on 2026-04-10?
Apr 10 · Ends 2026-04-10✗ WrongBrier: 0.302
“No specific match information available; Saudi football leagues have competitive balance making any single match outcome uncertain, but slight edge to opponent given unknown context.”
45%
NO
Will a dozen eggs cost ≥$4.00 in March?
Apr 9 · Ends 2026-04-10✗ WrongBrier: 0.723
“Egg prices have been elevated due to inflation and supply chain factors. Current retail prices in many regions already exceed $4.00, and March typically sees stable or slightly higher pricing.”
85%
YES
Will 70 to 99 tornadoes occur in the United States in March 2026?
Apr 9 · Ends 2026-04-10✗ WrongBrier: 0.723
“March is typically an active tornado month in the US, with historical averages around 80-100 tornadoes. Recent climate patterns suggest above-average severe weather activity, making 70+ tornadoes highly likely.”
85%
YES
Will FC Nordsjælland win on 2026-04-10?
Apr 9 · Ends 2026-04-10✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203
“FC Nordsjælland is historically inconsistent, and away matches in Danish Superliga are unpredictable. Without specific opponent info, slight edge to home team or draw.”
45%
NO
Will Al Kholood Saudi Club win on 2026-04-10?
Apr 9 · Ends 2026-04-10✗ WrongBrier: 0.302
“No specific match data available; Saudi football is competitive with frequent upsets. Without team form or opponent info, slightly favor against win.”
45%
NO
Will Brian Campbell win the 2026 Masters tournament?
Apr 9 · Ends 2026-04-13✓ CorrectBrier: 0.000
“Brian Campbell is not a professional golfer on the PGA Tour; he's a former NHL defenseman. The Masters winner will almost certainly be a top professional golfer.”
2%
NO
Will NEOM SC win on 2026-04-10?
Apr 9 · Ends 2026-04-10✗ WrongBrier: 0.302
“NEOM SC is a new Saudi football club with significant investment, playing in the Saudi First Division. On 2026-04-10 they face an unknown opponent, but their resources suggest a slight edge in home matches.”
55%
YES
Will the Boston Bruins win the 2025–2026 NHL Presidents' Trophy?
Apr 9 · Ends 2026-04-20✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“The Bruins are a strong team but winning the Presidents' Trophy requires exceptional regular-season dominance. With competitive teams like Colorado, Florida, and Edmonton, the odds favor other contenders.”
35%
NO
Will Tisza win at least 120 seats?
Apr 9 · Ends 2026-04-12✗ WrongBrier: 0.422
“Tisza is a new party facing established Fidesz dominance; 120 seats requires massive breakthrough unlikely in current Hungarian political landscape.”
35%
NO
Will FC Twente '65 vs. FC Volendam end in a draw?
Apr 9 · Ends 2026-04-10✓ CorrectBrier: 0.078
“Eredivisie matches historically have low draw rates (~25%). Both teams typically play for wins, especially in mid-table clashes. Home advantage for Twente reduces draw likelihood.”
28%
NO
Will the match end in a draw?
Apr 9 · Ends 2026-04-10✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Chess championship matches typically have decisive results; draws are common but less likely than decisive outcomes in high-stakes final games.”
35%
NO
Will Davis Riley win the 2026 Masters tournament?
Apr 9 · Ends 2026-04-13✓ CorrectBrier: 0.006
“Davis Riley is a solid PGA Tour player but has never won a major. The Masters field includes elite golfers like Scheffler, McIlroy, and Rahm. Riley's odds would be long against this competition.”
8%
NO
Will Aarhus GF win on 2026-04-10?
Apr 9 · Ends 2026-04-10✗ WrongBrier: 0.302
“Aarhus GF is a strong Danish team, but without specific opponent or form data, slight edge based on home advantage and historical performance.”
55%
YES
Will Al Taawoun Saudi Club vs. Al Kholood Saudi Club end in a draw?
Apr 9 · Ends 2026-04-10✓ CorrectBrier: 0.078
“Saudi league matches historically have low draw rates (~25-30%). Al Taawoun is typically stronger than Al Kholood, reducing draw likelihood further.”
28%
NO
Will Fijian Drua win?
Apr 9 · Ends 2026-04-10✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203
“Fijian Drua is competitive at home but faces strong opposition in Super Rugby Pacific. Without specific matchup details, historical performance suggests they win less than half of their matches.”
45%
NO
Will Aarhus GF vs. FC Nordsjælland end in a draw?
Apr 9 · Ends 2026-04-10✗ WrongBrier: 0.518
“Danish Superliga matches historically have ~25% draw rate. Aarhus GF and FC Nordsjælland are mid-table teams with moderate scoring records, making a draw plausible but less likely than a decisive result.”
28%
NO
Will Al Najmah Saudi Club vs. NEOM SC end in a draw?
Apr 9 · Ends 2026-04-10✓ CorrectBrier: 0.078
“Soccer matches typically end in draws ~25-30% of the time in many leagues. Without specific team data favoring a draw, baseline probability applies.”
28%
NO
Will Dalian Yingbo FC win on 2026-04-10?
Apr 9 · Ends 2026-04-10✗ WrongBrier: 0.302
“Dalian Yingbo FC is a lower-tier Chinese club with inconsistent performance; without specific opponent info, assume they face stronger competition, making a win less likely than not.”
45%
NO
Will the Bank of Korea increase the base rate after the April Meeting?
Apr 9 · Ends 2026-04-10✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Recent inflation data shows easing pressure, and the Bank of Korea has signaled a cautious approach to avoid harming economic recovery, making a rate hike in April unlikely.”
35%
NO
Will FC Volendam win on 2026-04-10?
Apr 9 · Ends 2026-04-10✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“FC Volendam is a lower-tier Dutch club with inconsistent performance; predicting a win on a specific future date against unknown opposition carries significant uncertainty.”
35%
NO
Will Rueben Bain Jr be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft?
Apr 8 · Ends 2026-04-25✓ CorrectBrier: 0.006
“Rueben Bain Jr is a promising defensive lineman, but first overall picks are typically quarterbacks or elite offensive skill players. The 2026 draft will likely feature QB prospects with higher draft capital.”
8%
NO
Will the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) win the most seats in the 2026 Kerala Legislative Assembly election?
Apr 8 · Ends 2026-04-09✓ CorrectBrier: 0.000
“BSP has historically been a minor player in Kerala politics with minimal electoral presence; the state is dominated by CPI(M)-led LDF and Congress-led UDF coalitions.”
2%
NO
Will the Revolutionary Socialist Party (RSP) win the most seats in the 2026 Kerala Legislative Assembly election?
Apr 8 · Ends 2026-04-09✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“RSP is a minor party in Kerala politics; historically, elections are dominated by CPI(M)-led LDF or Congress-led UDF. No indication of dramatic shift by 2026.”
15%
NO
Will Damac Saudi Club win on 2026-04-09?
Apr 8 · Ends 2026-04-09✗ WrongBrier: 0.302
“Slight edge to home team in Saudi football, but limited specific information about this match-up and team form makes it close to even.”
55%
YES
Will the Janata Dal (Secular) (JD(S)) win the most seats in the 2026 Kerala Legislative Assembly election?
Apr 8 · Ends 2026-04-09✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“JD(S) is a minor regional party in Kerala with limited influence; historically dominated by CPI(M)-led LDF and Congress-led UDF. Unlikely to become largest party in 2026.”
15%
NO
Will Trump attend UFC 327?
Apr 8 · Ends 2026-04-11✓ CorrectBrier: 0.063
“Trump is a known UFC fan who has attended multiple events, including UFC 295 in 2023. He frequently appears at high-profile sporting events for publicity and engagement with his base.”
75%
YES
Will Myles Turner lead the NBA in blocks during the 2025–26 NBA season?
Apr 8 · Ends 2026-04-12✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Turner has been a consistent shot-blocker but faces competition from younger rim protectors like Wembanyama and Chet Holmgren, plus injury history reduces his likelihood of leading the league.”
35%
NO
Will TISZA win 54%+ of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election?
Apr 8 · Ends 2026-04-12✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“TISZA is a new opposition party facing Fidesz's electoral system advantages and vote fragmentation. While gaining support, reaching 54%+ of national list votes requires overcoming significant structural and political hurdles.”
35%
NO
Will Liverpool reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal?
Apr 8 · Ends 2026-05-07✗ WrongBrier: 0.422
“Liverpool has strong squad depth and European pedigree, but competition is fierce. Based on current form and historical performance in knockout stages, they have a solid chance.”
65%
YES
Will the Indian National Congress (INC) win the most seats in the 2026 Kerala Legislative Assembly election?
Apr 8 · Ends 2026-04-09✗ WrongBrier: 0.422
“The Left Democratic Front (LDF) has been dominant in recent Kerala elections, with the CPI(M)-led coalition winning the last two assembly elections (2016 and 2021). The INC-led UDF faces strong anti-incumbency challenges and organizational issues.”
35%
NO
Will Mumbai City FC win on 2026-04-09?
Apr 8 · Ends 2026-04-09✗ WrongBrier: 0.302
“Mumbai City FC is typically strong in the Indian Super League, but specific opponent and form unknown. Slight home advantage edge.”
55%
YES
Will Real Madrid reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal?
Apr 8 · Ends 2026-05-07✗ WrongBrier: 0.563
“Real Madrid has strong historical performance in Champions League, typically reaches late stages, and has quality squad. However, knockout football always carries some uncertainty.”
75%
YES
Will the Bank of Korea decrease the base rate after the April Meeting?
Apr 8 · Ends 2026-04-10✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Inflation concerns persist in Korea, economic growth remains moderate, and recent BoK statements suggest maintaining current rates to monitor price stability.”
35%
NO
Will Al Taawoun Saudi Club win on 2026-04-10?
Apr 8 · Ends 2026-04-10✗ WrongBrier: 0.302
“Al Taawoun is a competitive Saudi Pro League team, but without specific opponent, venue, or form data, slight edge based on typical home advantage and recent league performance.”
55%
YES
Will Zhejiang Zhiye FC win on 2026-04-10?
Apr 8 · Ends 2026-04-10✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203
“Zhejiang Zhiye FC is a lower-tier Chinese club with inconsistent performance. Without specific opponent information, assuming they face stronger competition, win probability is slightly below even.”
45%
NO
Will Dalian Yingbo FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC end in a draw?
Apr 8 · Ends 2026-04-10✓ CorrectBrier: 0.078
“Chinese football matches historically have relatively low draw rates (~25-30%). Without specific team form data, defaulting to historical league averages suggests draw is less likely than decisive result.”
28%
NO
Will the Reserve Bank of India decrease the policy repo rate after the April Meeting?
Apr 7 · Ends 2026-04-08✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Inflation concerns likely persist, with RBI maintaining hawkish stance to anchor expectations. Recent data suggests limited room for cuts amid global monetary tightening.”
35%
NO
Will Bayern München reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal?
Apr 7 · Ends 2026-05-07✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Bayern has strong squad depth and historical success in Champions League knockout stages, though competition is tough. They typically perform well in quarterfinal matches.”
65%
YES
Will Arsenal reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal?
Apr 7 · Ends 2026-05-07✗ WrongBrier: 0.302
“Arsenal has strong squad but Champions League semifinals require beating multiple elite teams. Historical performance and knockout unpredictability make it slightly less than even odds.”
45%
NO
Will Harris English win the 2026 Masters tournament?
Apr 7 · Ends 2026-04-13✓ CorrectBrier: 0.001
“Harris English is a solid PGA Tour player but has never won a major. The Masters field is elite, and he's not among the top favorites. Historical winners typically have stronger major championship records.”
3%
NO
Will Ben Griffin win the 2026 Masters tournament?
Apr 7 · Ends 2026-04-13✓ CorrectBrier: 0.006
“Ben Griffin is a PGA Tour player but not among top contenders for majors. The Masters typically favors elite players with strong course history. His odds would be extremely long.”
8%
NO
Will Tom McKibbin win the 2026 Masters tournament?
Apr 7 · Ends 2026-04-13✓ CorrectBrier: 0.006
“Tom McKibbin is a promising young golfer but winning the Masters requires exceptional performance against elite competition. While he has PGA Tour potential, a Masters victory in 2026 would be a major upset given the depth of talent.”
8%
NO
Will Johnny Keefer win the 2026 Masters tournament?
Apr 7 · Ends 2026-04-13✓ CorrectBrier: 0.006
“Johnny Keefer is not a known professional golfer with PGA Tour status. The Masters winner typically comes from top-ranked players with major championship experience.”
8%
NO
Will Nicolas Echavarria win the 2026 Masters tournament?
Apr 7 · Ends 2026-04-13✓ CorrectBrier: 0.001
“Nicolas Echavarria is not among top contenders for major championships; Masters winners typically come from world's elite golfers, and he lacks the track record at that level.”
3%
NO
Will Michael Brennan win the 2026 Masters tournament?
Apr 7 · Ends 2026-04-13✓ CorrectBrier: 0.006
“Michael Brennan is not a top-ranked professional golfer as of 2026, and winning the Masters typically requires elite world-class performance against the strongest field in golf.”
8%
NO
Will Ryan Gerard win the 2026 Masters tournament?
Apr 7 · Ends 2026-04-13✓ CorrectBrier: 0.001
“Ryan Gerard is a PGA Tour player but not among top contenders. Masters winners typically come from elite ranks; he has limited major experience and hasn't shown consistent top-tier performance.”
3%
NO
Will Michael Kim win the 2026 Masters tournament?
Apr 7 · Ends 2026-04-13✓ CorrectBrier: 0.006
“Michael Kim is a professional golfer but has never won a major. The Masters typically features elite winners with strong recent form. While possible, his historical performance makes this unlikely.”
8%
NO
Will Sam Stevens win the 2026 Masters tournament?
Apr 7 · Ends 2026-04-13✓ CorrectBrier: 0.006
“Sam Stevens is a professional golfer but not among top favorites for major championships. The Masters typically has a small elite group of contenders, and he lacks major championship pedigree.”
8%
NO
Will Kurt Kitayama win the 2026 Masters tournament?
Apr 7 · Ends 2026-04-13✓ CorrectBrier: 0.006
“Kitayama has shown talent but winning the Masters requires elite consistency and major championship pedigree. With many top golfers competing, his chances are low.”
8%
NO
Will Harry Hall win the 2026 Masters tournament?
Apr 7 · Ends 2026-04-13✓ CorrectBrier: 0.006
“Harry Hall is a PGA Tour player with limited major championship success. The Masters field includes top-ranked golfers, and Hall hasn't demonstrated consistent contention at elite levels. Historical winners typically have strong track records in majors.”
8%
NO
Will Nick Taylor win the 2026 Masters tournament?
Apr 7 · Ends 2026-04-13✓ CorrectBrier: 0.006
“Nick Taylor is a solid PGA Tour player but has never won a major. The Masters field is elite, with many top-ranked golfers having better track records at Augusta. His odds would be long.”
8%
NO
Will Matt McCarty win the 2026 Masters tournament?
Apr 7 · Ends 2026-04-13✓ CorrectBrier: 0.006
“Matt McCarty is not a professional golfer on the PGA Tour. The Masters winner is almost always a top-ranked professional golfer. No evidence he's competing at that level.”
8%
NO
Will J.J. Spaun win the 2026 Masters tournament?
Apr 7 · Ends 2026-04-13✓ CorrectBrier: 0.001
“J.J. Spaun is a solid PGA Tour player but has never won a major. The Masters field is elite, and he lacks the track record at Augusta to suggest a breakthrough win in 2026.”
3%
NO
Will Max Greyserman win the 2026 Masters tournament?
Apr 7 · Ends 2026-04-13✓ CorrectBrier: 0.001
“Max Greyserman is a PGA Tour player but not among top contenders for majors. The Masters typically favors elite players with major experience. Field includes many higher-ranked golfers with better odds.”
3%
NO
Will Chris Gotterup win the 2026 Masters tournament?
Apr 7 · Ends 2026-04-13✓ CorrectBrier: 0.006
“Chris Gotterup is a promising young golfer but has limited PGA Tour success. The Masters typically requires elite experience and proven major championship performance. Many top players will be strong favorites.”
8%
NO
Will Kristoffer Reitan win the 2026 Masters tournament?
Apr 7 · Ends 2026-04-13✓ CorrectBrier: 0.006
“Kristoffer Reitan is a promising young golfer but has limited PGA Tour experience. Winning the Masters requires elite performance against top competition; his current trajectory makes this unlikely by 2026.”
8%
NO
Will Ryan Fox win the 2026 Masters tournament?
Apr 7 · Ends 2026-04-13✓ CorrectBrier: 0.006
“Ryan Fox is a solid professional golfer but has never won a major championship. The Masters field is extremely competitive with many top-ranked players. His odds would be long compared to favorites like Scheffler, McIlroy, or Rahm.”
8%
NO
Will Daniel Berger win the 2026 Masters tournament?
Apr 7 · Ends 2026-04-13✓ CorrectBrier: 0.006
“Daniel Berger is a solid PGA Tour player but has never won a major. The Masters field is extremely competitive with many top players more likely to win. His recent form and major championship record don't suggest high probability.”
8%
NO
Will Jacob Bridgeman win the 2026 Masters tournament?
Apr 7 · Ends 2026-04-13✓ CorrectBrier: 0.001
“Jacob Bridgeman is a relatively unknown professional golfer with limited PGA Tour success. The Masters typically requires elite performance and experience; he has never made the cut at Augusta. The field includes many top-ranked players with better odds.”
3%
NO
Will Casey Jarvis win the 2026 Masters tournament?
Apr 7 · Ends 2026-04-13✓ CorrectBrier: 0.001
“Casey Jarvis is a South African golfer with limited PGA Tour exposure. Winning the Masters requires elite performance against top competition; his current profile makes this extremely unlikely.”
3%
NO
Will Aldrich Potgieter win the 2026 Masters tournament?
Apr 7 · Ends 2026-04-13✓ CorrectBrier: 0.001
“Aldrich Potgieter is a promising young golfer but winning the Masters requires exceptional skill and experience. As of 2026, he would still be relatively early in his professional career, making a victory at Augusta National highly unlikely against elite competition.”
3%
NO
Will the Reserve Bank of India increase the policy repo rate after the April Meeting?
Apr 7 · Ends 2026-04-08✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Inflation likely under control by 2026, economic growth concerns may dominate, making rate hikes less probable than cuts or holds.”
35%
NO
Will the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) win fewer than 10 seats in the 2026 Kerala Legislative Assembly election?
Apr 7 · Ends 2026-04-09✗ WrongBrier: 0.723
“IUML typically wins 15-20 seats in Kerala. Fewer than 10 would be a dramatic decline unlikely given their stable Muslim vote base and UDF alliance strength.”
85%
YES
Will Al Riyadh Saudi Club win on 2026-04-09?
Apr 7 · Ends 2026-04-09✗ WrongBrier: 0.302
“Al Riyadh is a mid-table Saudi Pro League team with inconsistent form. Without specific opponent info, home advantage gives some chance but not >50% certainty.”
45%
NO
Will Reform UK win the most seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliament election?
Apr 7 · Ends 2026-05-07✓ CorrectBrier: 0.003
“Reform UK currently polls around 5-10% in Scotland, far behind SNP and Labour. Winning most seats would require massive unprecedented surge in next month.”
5%
NO
Will Scottish National Party win the most seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliament election?
Apr 7 · Ends 2026-05-07✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“SNP remains dominant in Scottish politics despite recent challenges, with strong regional support and fragmented opposition likely preserving their plurality.”
65%
YES
Will the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) win between 16 and 18 seats in the 2026 Kerala Legislative Assembly election?
Apr 7 · Ends 2026-04-09✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“IUML typically wins 15-20 seats in Kerala. The 16-18 range is plausible but narrow. Recent trends show stable performance around 15-17 seats, making this specific range moderately likely but not highly probable.”
35%
NO
Will Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal?
Apr 7 · Ends 2026-05-07✗ WrongBrier: 0.302
“PSG has strong squad but historically struggles in knockout stages; Champions League semifinals are extremely competitive with many elite teams.”
45%
NO
Will Scottish Liberal Democrats win the most seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliament election?
Apr 7 · Ends 2026-05-07✓ CorrectBrier: 0.003
“Scottish Liberal Democrats have consistently been a distant fourth party in Scottish Parliament elections, with SNP and Conservatives historically competing for most seats. No major polling or political shift suggests they'll become the largest party by 2026.”
5%
NO
Will Al Ettifaq Saudi Club win on 2026-04-09?
Apr 7 · Ends 2026-04-09✗ WrongBrier: 0.302
“Al Ettifaq has home advantage and is generally competitive in Saudi Pro League, but specific opponent and form unknown. Slight edge given.”
55%
YES
Will Al Qadisiyah Saudi Club win on 2026-04-09?
Apr 7 · Ends 2026-04-09✗ WrongBrier: 0.302
“Al Qadisiyah is a mid-table Saudi Pro League club with home advantage. Without specific opponent info, slight edge given to home team in Saudi football where home advantage matters.”
55%
YES
Will Al Ettifaq Saudi Club vs. Al Riyadh Saudi Club end in a draw?
Apr 7 · Ends 2026-04-09✓ CorrectBrier: 0.078
“Saudi Pro League matches historically have low draw rates (~25%). Al Ettifaq is stronger at home, making a draw less likely than average.”
28%
NO
Will Scottish Green Party win the most seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliament election?
Apr 7 · Ends 2026-05-07✓ CorrectBrier: 0.000
“Scottish Greens have never won most seats historically; SNP and Labour are dominant. Greens typically win 5-10% of seats, not enough for plurality.”
2%
NO
Will the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) win the most seats in the 2026 Kerala Legislative Assembly election?
Apr 7 · Ends 2026-04-09✓ CorrectBrier: 0.003
“IUML is a minor coalition partner in the UDF, not the dominant party. Historically, CPI(M)-led LDF or Congress-led UDF win most seats, not individual coalition members.”
5%
NO
Will the Kerala Congress (M) (KEC(M)) win the most seats in the 2026 Kerala Legislative Assembly election?
Apr 7 · Ends 2026-04-09✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“Kerala Congress (M) is a minor regional ally in UDF coalition, historically winning only a few seats. Major contenders are CPI(M)-led LDF and Congress-led UDF, not individual small parties.”
15%
NO
Will the Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPI(M)) win the most seats in the 2026 Kerala Legislative Assembly election?
Apr 7 · Ends 2026-04-09✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“CPI(M) faces strong anti-incumbency after 2021 win, with Congress-led UDF historically alternating power in Kerala. Recent local election trends show UDF gaining ground.”
35%
NO
Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in March 2026?
Apr 7 · Ends 2026-04-10✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“Global temperature anomalies fluctuate monthly; hitting a specific 0.04°C range in a single month is improbable given natural variability and measurement uncertainty.”
15%
NO
Will the Reserve Bank of India make no change to the policy repo rate after the April Meeting?
Apr 7 · Ends 2026-04-08✓ CorrectBrier: 0.063
“Recent inflation data has moderated, economic growth remains stable, and the RBI has signaled a cautious pause in recent meetings, making a rate hold likely in April.”
75%
YES
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.6% in March?
Apr 7 · Ends 2026-04-10✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Monthly inflation spikes of 0.6% are relatively rare in stable economies; recent trends show moderation. March data typically doesn't show such sharp increases without specific shocks.”
35%
NO
Will Rueben Chinyelu have the most rebounds per game at the end of the NCAA Division 1 season?
Apr 7 · Ends 2026-04-07✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“Rueben Chinyelu is a solid rebounder but faces stiff competition from established stars and statistical outliers. Winning the national rebounding title requires exceptional consistency and volume over a full season.”
15%
NO
Will Mateo Esmeraldo have the most assists per game at the end of the NCAA Division 1 season?
Apr 7 · Ends 2026-04-07✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“Mateo Esmeraldo is not a known NCAA player as of 2026; leading assists per game requires established high-level performance and visibility. Unlikely for an unknown player to suddenly lead.”
15%
NO
Will Ebuka Okorie be the NCAA Division 1 leading scorer at the end of the season?
Apr 7 · Ends 2026-04-07✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“Ebuka Okorie is not a known NCAA Division 1 basketball player as of 2026. The leading scorer is typically a high-profile player from a major program, making an unknown player extremely unlikely.”
15%
NO
Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 90 seats?
Apr 7 · Ends 2026-04-12✗ WrongBrier: 0.723
“Fidesz-KDNP has consistently won supermajorities in recent Hungarian elections, with 135 seats in 2022 and 133 in 2018. The electoral system favors them, and opposition fragmentation makes 90+ seats highly likely.”
85%
YES
Will Tisza win at least 100 seats?
Apr 7 · Ends 2026-04-12✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“Tisza has strong momentum in polls, likely to exceed 100 seats threshold given current political landscape and electoral system favoring larger parties.”
85%
YES
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?
Apr 7 · Ends 2026-04-15✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“Kharg Island is Iran's primary oil export terminal and heavily defended. No credible military threat suggests it would fall within 8 days. Iran maintains control despite regional tensions.”
15%
NO
Will Tisza win at least 130 seats?
Apr 7 · Ends 2026-04-12✗ WrongBrier: 0.302
“Tisza is polling well but 130 seats is a high threshold requiring ~65% of seats; current projections suggest 110-125 range is more likely.”
45%
NO
Will Tisza win at least 110 seats?
Apr 7 · Ends 2026-04-12✗ WrongBrier: 0.422
“Tisza is a new party; winning 110+ seats in Hungary's 199-seat parliament is a very high threshold, requiring a major electoral upset. Recent polls show momentum but not at that level.”
35%
NO
Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 80 seats?
Apr 7 · Ends 2026-04-12✗ WrongBrier: 0.723
“Fidesz-KDNP has consistently won supermajorities in recent Hungarian elections, with 135 seats in 2022. Electoral system favors them, and opposition remains fragmented. 80 seats is well below their typical performance.”
85%
YES
NCAA Tournament: Player to record triple-double?
Apr 7 · Ends 2026-04-07✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“Triple-doubles are rare in NCAA Tournament history, with only 2 recorded in over 80 years. Requires exceptional all-around performance in high-pressure elimination games.”
15%
NO
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?
Apr 7 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“Kharg Island is Iran's primary oil export terminal and strategically vital. No credible military threat suggests imminent loss of control within 23 days. Iran maintains strong defensive capabilities in the Persian Gulf.”
15%
NO
Will Kingston Flemings win the 2026 Outstanding Player of the tournament for the 2026 Mens NCAA Tournament?
Apr 7 · Ends 2026-04-07✓ CorrectBrier: 0.001
“Kingston Flemings is a high school recruit for 2026, not yet in college. Winning MOP as a freshman is extremely rare; only 3 freshmen have ever won it. Low probability.”
3%
NO
Will Armani Mighty have the most rebounds per game at the end of the NCAA Division 1 season?
Apr 6 · Ends 2026-04-07✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“Armani Mighty is not a known top NCAA rebounder; many established players dominate rebounds. The season ends tomorrow, making a last-minute surge unlikely.”
15%
NO
Will Melbourne City FC win on 2026-04-07?
Apr 6 · Ends 2026-04-07✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Melbourne City is typically strong in A-League, often favored at home. Without specific opponent info, historical performance suggests moderate advantage.”
65%
YES
Will Jon Rothstein tweet "This is March" ≤ 40 times during March Madness?
Apr 6 · Ends 2026-04-07✗ WrongBrier: 0.723
“Jon Rothstein's 'This is March' tweets are a signature catchphrase he uses frequently during the tournament, often multiple times per day. In recent years, he has tweeted it well over 40 times during March Madness, making ≤40 unlikely.”
85%
YES
Will Joshua Jefferson win the 2026 Outstanding Player of the tournament for the 2026 Mens NCAA Tournament?
Apr 6 · Ends 2026-04-07✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“Joshua Jefferson is a solid college player but winning MOP requires leading team to Final Four/Championship. Low probability for any single player, especially without clear top-5 team status.”
15%
NO
Will Cameron Boozer be the NCAA Division 1 leading scorer at the end of the season?
Apr 6 · Ends 2026-04-07✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Cameron Boozer is a highly touted freshman but leading D1 in scoring typically requires upperclassmen with high usage on weaker teams. Many established scorers return, making it statistically unlikely for a freshman to lead.”
35%
NO
DeepSeek V4 released by April 7?
Apr 6 · Ends 2026-04-07✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“DeepSeek V4 release by April 7 seems unlikely given the current date is April 6 and no major AI model announcements typically happen with just one day's notice. Most major releases require longer lead time for preparation and announcement.”
15%
NO
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?
Apr 6 · Ends 2026-04-07✗ WrongBrier: 0.723
“Major geopolitical conflicts rarely resolve within 24 hours; current tensions suggest ongoing hostilities or unresolved status by tomorrow.”
15%
NO
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 200M by May 1?
Apr 6 · Ends 2026-05-01✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“US crude oil reserves are currently around 450M barrels. A drop to 200M by May 1 would require an unprecedented 250M barrel drawdown in 25 days, far exceeding typical withdrawal rates and strategic reserve management patterns.”
15%
NO
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 375M by May 1?
Apr 6 · Ends 2026-05-01✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Current reserves around 450M barrels, May 1 is only 3 weeks away. Seasonal demand patterns and production levels make a 75M barrel drop in 3 weeks unlikely without major disruption.”
35%
NO
Will Al Hilal Saudi Club win on 2026-04-07?
Apr 6 · Ends 2026-04-07✓ CorrectBrier: 0.063
“Al Hilal is historically dominant in Saudi football, consistently performing well against most domestic opponents. Without specific opponent information, their strong track record suggests high likelihood of victory.”
75%
YES
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 350M by May 1?
Apr 6 · Ends 2026-05-01✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Current reserves around 450M barrels, weekly drawdowns typically 2-5M barrels. Need ~100M drop in 3.5 weeks, which would require unprecedented depletion rate not seen in recent data.”
35%
NO
Will the Senate pass the SAVE America Act (H.R. 7296)?
Apr 6 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“The SAVE America Act is likely a Democratic priority in a closely divided Senate. With current partisan gridlock and the need for 60 votes to overcome filibuster, passage appears challenging without significant bipartisan support.”
35%
NO
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 300M by May 1?
Apr 6 · Ends 2026-05-01✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“US crude oil reserves are currently around 450M barrels. A drop to 300M by May 1 would require an unprecedented 150M barrel drawdown in 25 days, far exceeding typical consumption rates and strategic reserve management patterns.”
15%
NO
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 250M by May 1?
Apr 6 · Ends 2026-05-01✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“Current reserves around 450M barrels, requiring ~200M drop in 25 days. While possible with major disruption, typical drawdown rates are far lower. Strategic releases or demand collapse would be needed.”
15%
NO
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 325M by May 1?
Apr 6 · Ends 2026-05-01✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Current reserves around 450M barrels, requiring ~125M drop in 25 days. While possible with major disruption, typical drawdown rates are much slower. Strategic releases or demand shifts unlikely to cause that rapid decline.”
35%
NO
Will Brody Robinson have the most assists per game at the end of the NCAA Division 1 season?
Apr 6 · Ends 2026-04-07✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Brody Robinson is not a known top NCAA assist leader; statistical leaders typically come from established high-assist programs and players with proven track records.”
35%
NO
Will Jon Rothstein tweet "This is March" 41–50 times during March Madness?
Apr 6 · Ends 2026-04-07✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Jon Rothstein's 'This is March' tweets are frequent but 41-50 times is extremely high. In recent years, he's tweeted it around 20-30 times during March Madness. This range seems unrealistic.”
35%
NO
Will Elliot Cadeau win the 2026 Outstanding Player of the tournament for the 2026 Mens NCAA Tournament?
Apr 6 · Ends 2026-04-07✗ WrongBrier: 0.723
“Elliot Cadeau is a promising guard but winning MOP requires leading team to championship as star player. Many elite players compete, and his team must reach Final Four. Low probability given field depth.”
15%
NO
Will Jon Rothstein tweet "This is March" 51–60 times during March Madness?
Apr 6 · Ends 2026-04-07✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Jon Rothstein's 'This is March' tweets are frequent but 51–60 times is a high count; typical range is lower, making this less likely.”
35%
NO
Will Melbourne City FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC end in a draw?
Apr 6 · Ends 2026-04-07✓ CorrectBrier: 0.078
“A-League matches historically have relatively low draw rates (~25-30%). Melbourne City and Central Coast Mariners are typically attacking teams, making draws less likely than decisive results.”
28%
NO
Will voter turnout be 68–71% in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?
Apr 6 · Ends 2026-04-12✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Hungarian turnout has been 69-71% in recent elections, but 68-71% is a narrow band. With potential voter apathy or mobilization shifts, hitting exactly this range is uncertain.”
35%
NO
Will Fidesz-KDNP win <70 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?
Apr 6 · Ends 2026-04-12✗ WrongBrier: 0.422
“Fidesz-KDNP has consistently won supermajorities (≥2/3 of seats) in recent elections. Current polling suggests continued strong support, making <70 seats (out of 199) unlikely.”
35%
NO
Will Fidesz-KDNP win 130+ seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?
Apr 6 · Ends 2026-04-12✗ WrongBrier: 0.723
“Fidesz-KDNP has consistently won supermajorities in recent Hungarian elections due to electoral system advantages and strong rural support. Current polling suggests continued dominance.”
85%
YES
Will Tisza win 100–109 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?
Apr 6 · Ends 2026-04-12✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Tisza's historical performance and current polling suggest a seat range more likely in the 80-99 bracket than 100-109. The higher threshold requires significant overperformance.”
35%
NO
Will Tisza win 90–99 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?
Apr 6 · Ends 2026-04-12✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Tisza's historical performance and current polling suggest seat counts typically fall outside this narrow 90-99 range, making it less likely than broader outcomes.”
35%
NO
Will Tisza win 70–79 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?
Apr 6 · Ends 2026-04-12✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Tisza's historical performance and current polling suggest they typically win fewer than 70 seats in Hungarian parliamentary elections, making 70-79 seats an optimistic but unlikely outcome.”
35%
NO
Will Tisza win 130+ seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?
Apr 6 · Ends 2026-04-12✗ WrongBrier: 0.422
“Tisza (Fidesz) typically wins supermajorities, but 130+ seats requires exceptional performance. Recent polls show some opposition consolidation, making this threshold less likely though still possible.”
35%
NO
Will Fidesz-KDNP win 115-129 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?
Apr 6 · Ends 2026-04-12✗ WrongBrier: 0.462
“Fidesz-KDNP has consistently won supermajorities in recent Hungarian elections, and the electoral system favors them. 115-129 seats is a plausible range given their historical performance and current political dominance.”
68%
YES
Will Tisza win 80–89 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?
Apr 6 · Ends 2026-04-12✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Tisza's coalition typically wins 120+ seats; 80-89 range is significantly below their historical performance and current polling projections.”
35%
NO
Will Tisza win <70 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?
Apr 6 · Ends 2026-04-12✗ WrongBrier: 0.723
“Tisza (Fidesz-KDNP coalition) has consistently won supermajorities (2/3+) in recent Hungarian elections, far exceeding 70 seats threshold. Opposition remains fragmented, electoral system favors ruling coalition.”
85%
YES
Will Justin Neely have the most rebounds per game at the end of the NCAA Division 1 season?
Apr 6 · Ends 2026-04-07✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“Justin Neely is not a top rebounder nationally; leading NCAA rebounding requires consistent double-digit averages, which he hasn't demonstrated. Many established players dominate this category.”
15%
NO
Will Brøndby IF win on 2026-04-07?
Apr 6 · Ends 2026-04-07✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203
“Brøndby's performance varies; without specific opponent info, assume moderate chance but slightly below even odds.”
45%
NO
Will Central Coast Mariners FC win on 2026-04-07?
Apr 6 · Ends 2026-04-07✗ WrongBrier: 0.302
“Central Coast Mariners are typically competitive at home, but without specific opponent or form data, giving slight edge based on home advantage.”
55%
YES
Will Josiah Davis have the most assists per game at the end of the NCAA Division 1 season?
Apr 6 · Ends 2026-04-07✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“Josiah Davis is not among top assist leaders historically; many established players return. Leading NCAA in assists requires exceptional playmaking and team role.”
15%
NO
Will Quinn Denker have the most assists per game at the end of the NCAA Division 1 season?
Apr 6 · Ends 2026-04-07✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“Quinn Denker is not among top assist leaders historically; many established playmakers with higher usage rates typically lead this category. Current season data shows him far from top position.”
15%
NO
Will Cameron Boozer win the 2026 Outstanding Player of the tournament for the 2026 Mens NCAA Tournament?
Apr 6 · Ends 2026-04-07✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“Cameron Boozer is a highly touted freshman for 2025-26 season, but winning MOP typically requires leading team to Final Four/Championship. Freshmen rarely win, and team success is uncertain.”
15%
NO
Will Braden Smith have the most assists per game at the end of the NCAA Division 1 season?
Apr 6 · Ends 2026-04-07✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“Braden Smith is a strong guard but leading the entire NCAA in assists per game requires exceptional playmaking consistency against hundreds of competitors. While possible, the field is deep with specialized point guards.”
15%
NO
Will Duke Brennan have the most rebounds per game at the end of the NCAA Division 1 season?
Apr 6 · Ends 2026-04-07✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Duke Brennan is a solid rebounder but leading the entire NCAA in rebounds per game requires exceptional consistency and opportunity. Many elite rebounders compete nationally, making it statistically unlikely for any single player.”
35%
NO
Will Inter Kashi FC win on 2026-04-07?
Apr 6 · Ends 2026-04-07✗ WrongBrier: 0.302
“Inter Kashi FC is a relatively new club in Indian football with inconsistent results. Without specific opponent or venue information, assuming they face established teams, their win probability is slightly below even.”
45%
NO
Will Aidan Kehoe have the most rebounds per game at the end of the NCAA Division 1 season?
Apr 6 · Ends 2026-04-07✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“Aidan Kehoe is not among top rebounders historically; leading rebounder typically averages 12+ rebounds, requiring exceptional performance and team role. Many established players compete.”
15%
NO
Will Fredrikstad FK win on 2026-04-07?
Apr 6 · Ends 2026-04-07✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203
“Fredrikstad FK is a competitive team in the Norwegian league, and home advantage on April 7th gives them a slight edge, but opponent strength and form are uncertain this far out.”
55%
YES
Will Al Fayha Saudi Club vs. Al Ahli Saudi Club end in a draw?
Apr 6 · Ends 2026-04-07✗ WrongBrier: 0.518
“Al Ahli is historically stronger and draws are less common in Saudi Pro League matches between teams of different tiers. Recent form favors decisive results.”
28%
NO
Will Darius Acuff Jr. be the NCAA Division 1 leading scorer at the end of the season?
Apr 6 · Ends 2026-04-07✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Darius Acuff Jr. is a talented freshman guard at Michigan, but winning the scoring title requires exceptional consistency and volume. Many experienced scorers compete nationally, making it statistically unlikely for any single player, especially a freshman, to lead.”
35%
NO
Will Delrecco Gillespie have the most rebounds per game at the end of the NCAA Division 1 season?
Apr 6 · Ends 2026-04-07✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“Delrecco Gillespie is not a known top NCAA rebounder; statistical leaders typically emerge from established high-volume players. The season ends tomorrow, making a last-minute surge unlikely.”
15%
NO
Will Al Fayha Saudi Club win on 2026-04-07?
Apr 6 · Ends 2026-04-07✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203
“Al Fayha is mid-table in Saudi Pro League with inconsistent form. Their opponent (likely Al-Ahli or similar) has stronger recent performance. Home advantage insufficient to overcome quality gap.”
45%
NO
Will Themus Fulks have the most assists per game at the end of the NCAA Division 1 season?
Apr 6 · Ends 2026-04-07✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“Themus Fulks is not a known top NCAA assist leader historically; many established high-assist guards typically lead this category, making his chances low.”
15%
NO
Will Daeshun Ruffin be the NCAA Division 1 leading scorer at the end of the season?
Apr 6 · Ends 2026-04-07✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“Daeshun Ruffin is a talented guard but faces stiff competition from established scorers across Division I. Leading the nation requires exceptional scoring consistency and volume over a full season, which is statistically unlikely for any single player.”
15%
NO
Will Jordan Riley be the NCAA Division 1 leading scorer at the end of the season?
Apr 6 · Ends 2026-04-07✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“Jordan Riley is a solid scorer but leading all of Division 1 requires exceptional volume and consistency against many elite offensive players. The competition is extremely high.”
15%
NO
Will a 1 seed win the 2026 Men's NCAA Tournament?
Apr 6 · Ends 2026-04-07✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“1 seeds historically win about 60-70% of tournaments, and 2026 should follow similar patterns with top teams having talent advantages.”
65%
YES
Will P.J. Haggerty be the NCAA Division 1 leading scorer at the end of the season?
Apr 6 · Ends 2026-04-07✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“P.J. Haggerty is a strong scorer but faces intense competition from established stars like Zach Edey, Caleb Love, and others. Leading the nation requires exceptional consistency and high-scoring games against tough defenses.”
15%
NO
Will Jeremy Fears Jr. have the most assists per game at the end of the NCAA Division 1 season?
Apr 6 · Ends 2026-04-07✗ WrongBrier: 0.723
“Jeremy Fears Jr. is a promising guard but faces intense competition from established playmakers across D1. Leading assists per game requires exceptional consistency and offensive role that's unlikely in his first full season.”
15%
NO
Will Jon Rothstein tweet "This is March" 61–70 times during March Madness?
Apr 6 · Ends 2026-04-07✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Jon Rothstein's 'This is March' tweets typically number in the 40-60 range during March Madness. 61-70 would be significantly above his usual output, making it less likely.”
35%
NO
Will AJ Dybantsa be the NCAA Division 1 leading scorer at the end of the season?
Apr 6 · Ends 2026-04-07✗ WrongBrier: 0.422
“AJ Dybantsa is a top recruit but leading D1 scoring as a freshman is extremely rare. Many established upperclassmen and other elite freshmen will compete for the title, making it unlikely.”
35%
NO
Will Jon Rothstein tweet "This is March" 71–80 times during March Madness?
Apr 6 · Ends 2026-04-07✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Jon Rothstein's 'This is March' tweets typically number in the dozens during the tournament, but 71-80 is at the high end of his historical range. Given variability in game excitement and his posting patterns, this range seems slightly above his usual output.”
35%
NO
Will Jon Rothstein tweet "This is March" 81+ times during March Madness?
Apr 6 · Ends 2026-04-07✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“Jon Rothstein consistently tweets 'This is March' dozens of times during the tournament. In recent years he's exceeded 100+ tweets with this phrase. 81+ is well below his typical volume.”
85%
YES
Will Keaton Wagler win the 2026 Outstanding Player of the tournament for the 2026 Mens NCAA Tournament?
Apr 6 · Ends 2026-04-07✓ CorrectBrier: 0.006
“Keaton Wagler is not a known top prospect for 2026 NCAA Tournament MOP. The award typically goes to a star player from the championship team, and Wagler is not projected in that category.”
8%
NO
Will Caleb Wilson win the 2026 Outstanding Player of the tournament for the 2026 Mens NCAA Tournament?
Apr 6 · Ends 2026-04-07✓ CorrectBrier: 0.006
“Caleb Wilson is a promising freshman but winning MOP requires leading team to championship. Many variables over two seasons make this low probability.”
8%
NO
Will Al Ahli Saudi Club win on 2026-04-07?
Apr 6 · Ends 2026-04-07✗ WrongBrier: 0.422
“Al Ahli is historically strong in Saudi football, likely favored at home, but opponent strength unknown. Assuming moderate advantage.”
65%
YES
Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand decrease the official cash rate after the April decision?
Apr 6 · Ends 2026-04-07✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“RBNZ has maintained a hawkish stance to combat inflation; recent economic data suggests persistent price pressures, making an immediate rate cut unlikely in April.”
35%
NO
Will the Bank of New Zealand make no change to the official cash rate after the April decision?
Apr 6 · Ends 2026-04-07✓ CorrectBrier: 0.063
“Inflation likely remains within target range, economic growth moderate, and central banks globally in holding pattern. No strong data suggesting urgent rate change needed.”
75%
YES
Will the 2026 Men's NCAA basketball National Champion come from the Big Ten conference?
Apr 6 · Ends 2026-04-07✗ WrongBrier: 0.422
“Big Ten hasn't won since 2000, faces strong competition from Big 12, SEC, and ACC teams. Recent tournament struggles suggest lower probability despite strong regular season teams.”
35%
NO
Will Braden Smith win the 2026 Outstanding Player of the tournament for the 2026 Mens NCAA Tournament?
Apr 6 · Ends 2026-04-07✓ CorrectBrier: 0.006
“Braden Smith is a solid college guard, but winning MOP requires leading team to Final Four/Championship. Purdue's tournament history and competition make this unlikely.”
8%
NO
Will Darius Acuff Jr win the 2026 Outstanding Player of the tournament for the 2026 Mens NCAA Tournament?
Apr 6 · Ends 2026-04-07✓ CorrectBrier: 0.006
“Darius Acuff Jr is a talented freshman guard at Michigan, but winning MOP requires leading a team deep into the tournament. Michigan is not projected as a top contender in 2026, making this unlikely.”
8%
NO
Will Viking FK win on 2026-04-06?
Apr 6 · Ends 2026-04-06✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Viking FK is typically strong at home in the Norwegian league, and they face a mid-table opponent on this date. Historical home advantage suggests a moderate edge.”
65%
YES
Will Millwall FC win on 2026-04-06?
Apr 6 · Ends 2026-04-06✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203
“Millwall is historically inconsistent, especially in April matches. Without specific opponent info, assume moderate underdog status.”
45%
NO
Will Viborg FF win on 2026-04-06?
Apr 6 · Ends 2026-04-06✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203
“Viborg FF is a mid-table Danish Superliga team facing AGF Aarhus, a stronger opponent. Home advantage helps but AGF typically performs better in head-to-head matches.”
45%
NO
Will Portsmouth FC vs. Oxford United FC end in a draw?
Apr 6 · Ends 2026-04-06✗ WrongBrier: 0.518
“Portsmouth historically stronger at home, draws less common in high-stakes Championship matches, and Oxford typically struggles away against top-half teams.”
28%
NO
Will Southampton FC win on 2026-04-06?
Apr 6 · Ends 2026-04-06✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203
“Southampton at home with recent form advantage, but Championship matches are unpredictable. Slight edge to home side.”
55%
YES
Will an Iranian agent be charged in the US by April 30?
Apr 6 · Ends 2026-04-30✗ WrongBrier: 0.422
“Iranian agents are often sanctioned or designated, but criminal charges require specific evidence and prosecutorial decisions. Given the short timeframe (24 days) and high diplomatic sensitivity, formal charges by April 30 seem unlikely.”
35%
NO
Will Millwall FC vs. Norwich City FC end in a draw?
Apr 5 · Ends 2026-04-06✓ CorrectBrier: 0.078
“Championship matches historically have ~25-30% draw rate. Norwich is typically stronger than Millwall, reducing draw likelihood. No specific draw-inducing factors noted.”
28%
NO
Will Viborg FF vs. Aarhus GF end in a draw?
Apr 5 · Ends 2026-04-06✓ CorrectBrier: 0.078
“Danish Superliga matches historically have ~25% draw rate. Both teams are mid-table with moderate scoring, but home advantage for Viborg and competitive nature make outright win more likely than draw.”
28%
NO
Will Hull City AFC vs. Coventry City FC end in a draw?
Apr 5 · Ends 2026-04-06✗ WrongBrier: 0.518
“Championship matches typically have ~25% draw rate. Both teams are mid-table with moderate scoring records, making a decisive result more likely than a draw.”
28%
NO
Will IK Start win on 2026-04-06?
Apr 5 · Ends 2026-04-06✗ WrongBrier: 0.302
“IK Start is a historically strong Norwegian club, but specific opponent and form unknown. Slight edge given home advantage and typical performance levels.”
55%
YES
Will Leicester City FC win on 2026-04-06?
Apr 5 · Ends 2026-04-06✗ WrongBrier: 0.302
“Leicester City at home with strong recent form, but facing a competitive opponent. Slight edge given home advantage and momentum.”
55%
YES
Will Middlesbrough FC win on 2026-04-06?
Apr 5 · Ends 2026-04-06✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203
“No specific match context provided; assuming a typical Championship match where home advantage and form are unknown. Without information, slightly favor the opponent given typical away match challenges.”
45%
NO
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets in April 2026?
Apr 5 · Ends 2026-05-01✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Elon's tweet volume has declined from peak years, averaging ~150/month recently. 220-239 is a specific high range unlikely for sustained April 2026 activity.”
35%
NO
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets in April 2026?
Apr 5 · Ends 2026-05-01✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Elon's tweet frequency has declined from peak years. 200-219 tweets in a month (6-7 per day) is above his recent average, and he may reduce activity further by 2026.”
35%
NO
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by April 30, 2026?
Apr 5 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“Hezbollah leadership changes are rare; Qassem has been deputy since 1991 with no signs of imminent departure. Internal stability and external pressures make forced removal unlikely in next 25 days.”
15%
NO
Will Sheffield Wednesday FC win on 2026-04-06?
Apr 5 · Ends 2026-04-06✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203
“Sheffield Wednesday's form is inconsistent, and they face a tough opponent on the road. Historical performance suggests they struggle in away matches against mid-table teams.”
45%
NO
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.7% in March?
Apr 5 · Ends 2026-04-10✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Monthly inflation spikes of 0.7% are relatively rare in stable economies; recent trends show more moderate increases around 0.2-0.4%.”
35%
NO
Will annual inflation increase by 2.9% in March?
Apr 5 · Ends 2026-04-10✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“March inflation data typically shows moderate increases; 2.9% annual rise is relatively high given recent Fed tightening and cooling economic indicators. Historical March CPI increases rarely reach this level without strong price pressures.”
35%
NO
Will annual inflation increase by 3.2% in March?
Apr 5 · Ends 2026-04-10✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203
“Inflation has been moderating recently, and March data typically shows seasonal stability. A 3.2% annual increase would require unexpected acceleration from current trends.”
45%
NO
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 15?
Apr 5 · Ends 2026-04-15✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“US has not historically provided routine escorts in Hormuz; tensions are high but direct escort operations are rare and politically sensitive, making it unlikely within 10 days.”
35%
NO
Will annual inflation increase by 2.8% in March?
Apr 5 · Ends 2026-04-10✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Inflation targeting around 2% makes 2.8% unlikely; recent trends show moderation. March data typically doesn't spike that high without clear drivers.”
35%
NO
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% in March?
Apr 5 · Ends 2026-04-10✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Monthly inflation spikes of 0.5% are relatively rare in stable economies; typical monthly CPI increases are 0.2-0.3%. While possible with supply shocks, base rates suggest lower probability.”
35%
NO
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.8% or more in March?
Apr 5 · Ends 2026-04-10✗ WrongBrier: 0.723
“Monthly inflation spikes of 0.8%+ are historically rare in stable economies; March data typically shows moderate seasonal effects, not extreme jumps.”
15%
NO
Will annual inflation increase by 3.1% in March?
Apr 5 · Ends 2026-04-10✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“March inflation data typically shows seasonal moderation; 3.1% increase would require unexpected acceleration from recent trends, which seems unlikely given current economic indicators.”
35%
NO
Will annual inflation increase by 3.0% in March?
Apr 5 · Ends 2026-04-10✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Inflation has been moderating in recent years, and a 3.0% annual increase would represent a significant acceleration from current trends, making it unlikely for March.”
35%
NO
Will a dozen eggs cost <$2.00 in March?
Apr 5 · Ends 2026-04-10✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“Egg prices have been well above $2/dozen for years due to inflation, avian flu impacts, and production costs. March 2026 prices unlikely to drop below $2.”
15%
NO
Will annual inflation increase by 2.7% in March?
Apr 5 · Ends 2026-04-10✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Inflation data for March 2026 not yet released, but recent trends show moderation. A 2.7% annual increase would be above current consensus forecasts and recent monthly patterns.”
35%
NO
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% in March?
Apr 5 · Ends 2026-04-10✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Monthly inflation spikes of 0.4% are relatively rare in stable periods; recent trends show moderation. Without specific March shocks, probability is below historical average.”
35%
NO
Will annual inflation increase by ≤2.6% in March?
Apr 5 · Ends 2026-04-10✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Inflation has been persistently above 3% in recent years, with structural factors (services, housing, wages) keeping pressure high. A drop to ≤2.6% by March seems unlikely given current trends.”
35%
NO
Will annual inflation increase by 3.3% in March?
Apr 5 · Ends 2026-04-10✗ WrongBrier: 0.302
“Inflation has been moderating in recent years, and 3.3% represents a significant acceleration from current trends. While possible, sustained high inflation seems less likely given monetary policy and economic conditions.”
45%
NO
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% or less in March?
Apr 5 · Ends 2026-04-10✗ WrongBrier: 0.422
“Recent inflation trends show moderation, with March typically having modest seasonal effects. Core inflation remains sticky but monthly increases above 0.3% have been less frequent recently.”
65%
YES
Will annual inflation increase by ≥3.4% in March?
Apr 5 · Ends 2026-04-10✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“March inflation data typically shows seasonal moderation; recent Fed policy tightening and cooling labor market suggest inflation pressures are easing, making a ≥3.4% annual increase unlikely.”
35%
NO
Will Clavicular cry on stream by May 1, 2026
Apr 5 · Ends 2026-05-01✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Clavicular is a streamer known for emotional moments, but crying on stream is relatively rare. With only 26 days until May 1, 2026, the timeframe is limited. While possible, the base rate suggests low probability.”
35%
NO
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by April 30?
Apr 5 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“Direct communication between a former US president and a senior Iranian official is highly unusual and diplomatically sensitive. While Trump has unconventional diplomatic approaches, such a specific meeting seems unlikely given current geopolitical tensions and protocol constrain”
15%
NO
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by April 30, 2026?
Apr 5 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“Mojtaba Khamenei is a key figure in Iran's power structure, son of Supreme Leader, with no history of exile. High security and political constraints make departure unlikely.”
15%
NO
Will Clavicular get frame mogged by Gorlock the Destroyer on stream during Mog World Order?
Apr 5 · Ends 2026-04-13✗ WrongBrier: 0.563
“Gorlock is known for frame-mogging opponents on stream, and Mog World Order events typically feature such matchups. Clavicular is likely to be scheduled as a contrasting opponent for entertainment value.”
75%
YES
SAVE Act becomes law by April 30, 2026?
Apr 5 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“The SAVE Act faces significant political hurdles and legislative gridlock in Congress. With only 25 days remaining until the deadline and no clear path to passage, it's unlikely to become law by April 30, 2026.”
35%
NO
US announces military support of Iran opposition by April 30?
Apr 5 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“Direct US military support to Iranian opposition would be a major escalation, risking regional conflict. Current US policy favors diplomacy and sanctions over overt military backing of opposition groups.”
15%
NO
US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by April 30?
Apr 5 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“Direct US military support for Kurds in Iran would risk major escalation with Iran, lacks clear strategic rationale, and no current signals suggest such a policy shift by April 30.”
15%
NO
Will Anthony Davis lead the NBA in blocks during the 2025–26 NBA season?
Apr 5 · Ends 2026-04-12✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Davis is elite but injury-prone; younger rim protectors like Wembanyama and Chet Holmgren are emerging as dominant shot-blockers with higher durability.”
35%
NO
Will Walker Kessler lead the NBA in blocks during the 2025–26 NBA season?
Apr 5 · Ends 2026-04-12✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“Kessler is a strong shot-blocker but faces competition from elite rim protectors like Wembanyama, Gobert, and Davis. Leading the league requires exceptional consistency and health over 82 games.”
15%
NO
Will Ukraine re-enter Maliivka by April 30?
Apr 5 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Maliivka is a small Donetsk village; current frontline dynamics suggest limited Ukrainian offensive momentum in that sector by end of April 2026.”
35%
NO
Will Kristiansund BK win on 2026-04-06?
Apr 5 · Ends 2026-04-06✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203
“Kristiansund BK is a mid-table Norwegian club; predicting a specific match win years ahead is highly uncertain. Without opponent info, assuming roughly equal chance but slightly favoring opponent due to home/away unknown.”
45%
NO
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by April 30?
Apr 5 · Ends 2026-04-30✗ WrongBrier: 0.723
“Mojtaba Khamenei is a prominent figure in Iran's political-religious hierarchy. Given his role and the timeframe (25 days remaining), public appearances for official or religious events are likely, especially with potential Ramadan/Eid observances in April.”
85%
YES
Will Sheffield Wednesday FC vs. Leicester City FC end in a draw?
Apr 5 · Ends 2026-04-06✗ WrongBrier: 0.518
“Leicester City is a stronger side historically and in recent form. Draws in Championship matches between top and mid-table teams occur about 25-30% of the time. Home advantage for Sheffield Wednesday may not be enough to level the gap.”
28%
NO
Will Ipswich Town FC vs. Birmingham City FC end in a draw?
Apr 5 · Ends 2026-04-06✓ CorrectBrier: 0.078
“Championship matches historically have ~25-30% draw rate. Ipswich likely stronger at home, reducing draw probability slightly below average.”
28%
NO
Will Derby County FC win on 2026-04-06?
Apr 5 · Ends 2026-04-06✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203
“Derby County has home advantage and stronger recent form, but Stockport is competitive. Slight edge to Derby based on league position and home record.”
55%
YES
Will Swansea City AFC vs. Middlesbrough FC end in a draw?
Apr 5 · Ends 2026-04-06✗ WrongBrier: 0.518
“Championship matches historically have ~25% draw rate. Both teams likely playing for playoff positions, increasing motivation for decisive result rather than settling for draw.”
28%
NO
Will Preston North End FC win on 2026-04-06?
Apr 5 · Ends 2026-04-06✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203
“Preston North End is playing away at QPR on 2026-04-06. Both teams are typically mid-table Championship sides, but QPR has home advantage and historical matchups are often close. Without specific 2026 form data, slight edge to home team.”
45%
NO
Will Tromsø IL win on 2026-04-06?
Apr 5 · Ends 2026-04-06✗ WrongBrier: 0.302
“Tromsø IL is historically inconsistent, playing away on April 6th (likely early season). Without specific opponent info, assume moderate underdog status.”
45%
NO
Will Kristiansund BK vs. FK Bodø/Glimt end in a draw?
Apr 5 · Ends 2026-04-06✓ CorrectBrier: 0.078
“Bodø/Glimt is historically dominant in this fixture and typically wins these matches. Draws are relatively rare in their encounters.”
28%
NO
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2026 Ohio Governor Republican primary election?
Apr 5 · Ends 2026-05-05✗ WrongBrier: 0.422
“Ramaswamy has no established political base in Ohio, faces likely competition from experienced Ohio Republicans, and lacks prior electoral success. Primary voters typically favor candidates with state-level political experience.”
35%
NO
Will Casey Putsch win the 2026 Ohio Governor Republican primary election?
Apr 5 · Ends 2026-05-05✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“Casey Putsch is a relatively unknown candidate in Ohio politics, facing established Republican figures with stronger name recognition, funding, and party support in a competitive primary.”
15%
NO
Will Randers FC win on 2026-04-06?
Apr 5 · Ends 2026-04-06✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203
“Randers FC is a mid-table Danish Superliga team with inconsistent form. Without specific opponent or home/away context, assuming they face a stronger opponent or have away disadvantage makes a win slightly less likely than not.”
45%
NO
Will CD Guadalajara vs. Pumas de la UNAM end in a draw?
Apr 5 · Ends 2026-04-06✗ WrongBrier: 0.518
“Draws are relatively rare in Liga MX; both teams have offensive strengths and historical matchups often produce a winner.”
28%
NO
Will Philip Funderburg win the 2026 Ohio Governor Republican primary election?
Apr 5 · Ends 2026-05-05✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“Philip Funderburg is not a prominent Ohio political figure; established Republicans like Matt Dolan or Frank LaRose are more likely frontrunners in a competitive primary.”
15%
NO
Will Blackburn Rovers FC win on 2026-04-06?
Apr 5 · Ends 2026-04-06✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203
“Blackburn Rovers are away to West Bromwich Albion, a strong Championship side. West Brom typically performs well at home, and Blackburn has inconsistent away form. Historical matchups favor West Brom slightly.”
45%
NO
Will Deportivo Toluca FC win on 2026-04-05?
Apr 5 · Ends 2026-04-06✗ WrongBrier: 0.302
“Toluca is historically strong at home, but opponent unknown. Slight edge given home advantage and typical Liga MX competitiveness.”
55%
YES
Will Sarpsborg 08 FF win on 2026-04-06?
Apr 5 · Ends 2026-04-06✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203
“Sarpsborg 08 is a mid-table Norwegian club facing an unknown opponent on a specific future date. Without knowing opponent, venue, or team form, home advantage gives some chance but not enough for >50% confidence.”
45%
NO
Will Sheffield United FC win on 2026-04-06?
Apr 5 · Ends 2026-04-06✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Sheffield United is a Championship team facing uncertain opposition. Without specific match details, assuming they're underdogs in a typical league fixture.”
35%
NO
Will Oxford United FC win on 2026-04-06?
Apr 5 · Ends 2026-04-06✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203
“Oxford United is a League One club facing a Championship opponent in this EFL Cup match. Championship teams generally have stronger squads and resources, giving them an advantage.”
45%
NO
Will Querétaro FC vs. Deportivo Toluca FC end in a draw?
Apr 5 · Ends 2026-04-06✓ CorrectBrier: 0.078
“Toluca is historically stronger and draws are less common in Liga MX. Recent form favors Toluca, making a draw less likely than a decisive result.”
28%
NO
Will Hull City AFC win on 2026-04-06?
Apr 5 · Ends 2026-04-06✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203
“Hull City vs Coventry is a Championship match with both teams typically competitive. Home advantage gives Hull some edge, but Coventry is a solid mid-table side. Without specific form data, it's close to even with slight lean to Coventry.”
45%
NO
Will Ipswich Town FC win on 2026-04-06?
Apr 5 · Ends 2026-04-06✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203
“Ipswich at home vs Birmingham, likely mid-table clash. Home advantage gives slight edge but both teams inconsistent in Championship.”
55%
YES
Will Querétaro FC win on 2026-04-05?
Apr 5 · Ends 2026-04-06✗ WrongBrier: 0.302
“Querétaro FC has inconsistent performance; Toluca is historically stronger. Home advantage for Querétaro gives some chance but likely insufficient.”
45%
NO
Will Birmingham City FC win on 2026-04-06?
Apr 5 · Ends 2026-04-06✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203
“Birmingham City's inconsistent form in Championship, playing away on April 6th, and typical mid-table unpredictability make a win less likely than not.”
45%
NO
Will Bristol City FC win on 2026-04-06?
Apr 5 · Ends 2026-04-06✗ WrongBrier: 0.302
“Bristol City is mid-table Championship team facing Sheffield Wednesday at home. Home advantage exists but both teams are inconsistent. Slight edge to home team but not enough for >50% probability.”
45%
NO
Will Aarhus GF win on 2026-04-06?
Apr 5 · Ends 2026-04-06✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203
“Aarhus GF is a strong Danish Superliga team, but match outcomes are uncertain. Slight edge based on typical home/away performance and league standing.”
55%
YES
Will Swansea City AFC win on 2026-04-06?
Apr 5 · Ends 2026-04-06✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203
“Swansea's inconsistent form, typical Championship unpredictability, and lack of specific opponent/venue context suggest slightly below even odds for a win.”
45%
NO
Will Coventry City FC win on 2026-04-06?
Apr 5 · Ends 2026-04-06✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203
“Coventry City is a mid-table Championship team with inconsistent away form. Without specific opponent info, they typically win about 40-45% of matches against average opponents.”
45%
NO
Will Odense BK win on 2026-04-06?
Apr 5 · Ends 2026-04-06✗ WrongBrier: 0.302
“Odense BK is a mid-table Danish Superliga team with inconsistent form. Without specific opponent or home/away context, their win probability is slightly below even.”
45%
NO
Will Rosenborg BK win on 2026-04-06?
Apr 5 · Ends 2026-04-06✗ WrongBrier: 0.422
“Rosenborg is a historically strong Norwegian club, playing at home on April 6th (likely early season). Without specific opponent info, they have home advantage and typically start seasons well against mid/lower-table teams.”
65%
YES
Will CD Tolima win on 2026-04-05?
Apr 5 · Ends 2026-04-06✗ WrongBrier: 0.302
“CD Tolima is historically strong in Colombian football, often competitive in home matches. Without specific opponent or form data, slight edge based on reputation and typical home advantage.”
55%
YES
Will FC Fredericia win on 2026-04-06?
Apr 5 · Ends 2026-04-06✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203
“Danish 1st Division match; Fredericia is mid-table with inconsistent form. Without specific opponent info, assume roughly even odds but slightly favor home team advantage if applicable.”
45%
NO
Will Bristol City FC vs. Sheffield United FC end in a draw?
Apr 5 · Ends 2026-04-06✓ CorrectBrier: 0.078
“Championship matches historically have ~25-30% draw rate. Both teams are mid-table with moderate scoring records, making a draw plausible but less likely than a decisive result.”
28%
NO
Will Portsmouth FC win on 2026-04-06?
Apr 5 · Ends 2026-04-06✗ WrongBrier: 0.422
“Portsmouth at home against Oxford United, likely stronger side with home advantage. Recent form and league position favor Portsmouth.”
65%
YES
Will SK Brann win on 2026-04-06?
Apr 5 · Ends 2026-04-06✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“SK Brann is historically strong in Norwegian football, likely favored at home against HamKam on this date, though uncertainty exists given distant future.”
65%
YES
Will Lillestrøm SK win on 2026-04-06?
Apr 5 · Ends 2026-04-06✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203
“Lillestrøm SK is a historically competitive team in Norwegian football, and home advantage on April 6th gives them a slight edge, though opponent strength and form are unknown.”
55%
YES
Will Molde FK win on 2026-04-06?
Apr 5 · Ends 2026-04-06✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203
“Molde FK faces Lillestrøm SK away on 2026-04-06. Molde is historically strong but away matches in early April are unpredictable. Lillestrøm at home could secure a draw or narrow win.”
45%
NO
Will Tromsø IL vs. Rosenborg BK end in a draw?
Apr 5 · Ends 2026-04-06✓ CorrectBrier: 0.078
“Rosenborg is historically stronger, draws in Norwegian Eliteserien occur ~25-30% of matches, and home advantage for Tromsø isn't decisive enough to expect equal outcome.”
28%
NO
Will Vålerenga Fotball win on 2026-04-06?
Apr 5 · Ends 2026-04-06✗ WrongBrier: 0.302
“Vålerenga is historically a stronger club than Vålerenga's likely opponent, and home advantage in Norwegian football provides a slight edge, though early-season uncertainty keeps probability moderate.”
55%
YES
Will CD Guadalajara win on 2026-04-05?
Apr 5 · Ends 2026-04-06✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203
“CD Guadalajara has inconsistent form, playing away on April 5, 2026. Without specific opponent info, home advantage and typical Liga MX competitiveness suggest slightly lower win probability.”
45%
NO
Will Hamarkameratene win on 2026-04-06?
Apr 5 · Ends 2026-04-06✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203
“HamKam is a mid-table Eliteserien team facing an away match against Brann, a stronger side historically. Without specific 2026 form data, Brann likely has home advantage and superior squad quality.”
45%
NO
Will Elon Musk post 2000+ tweets in April 2026?
Apr 5 · Ends 2026-05-01✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Elon's tweet frequency has declined from peak years. 2000+ tweets in one month (~67/day) is far above his recent average of ~10-20/day. Possible but unlikely.”
35%
NO
Will Molde FK vs. Lillestrøm SK end in a draw?
Apr 5 · Ends 2026-04-06✓ CorrectBrier: 0.078
“Norwegian league matches historically have low draw rates (~25%). Molde typically stronger at home, Lillestrøm inconsistent. Draw probability below average.”
28%
NO
Will Pumas de la UNAM win on 2026-04-05?
Apr 5 · Ends 2026-04-06✗ WrongBrier: 0.302
“Pumas UNAM is historically strong at home, but Liga MX matches are unpredictable. Slight edge given to home team based on typical home advantage in Mexican football.”
55%
YES
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-04-06?
Apr 5 · Ends 2026-04-06✓ CorrectBrier: 0.063
“Bodø/Glimt is historically strong in Norwegian football, especially at home. Without specific opponent info, their consistent performance suggests high win probability.”
75%
YES
Will Seattle Sounders FC win on 2026-04-04?
Apr 4 · Ends 2026-04-05✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203
“Seattle has strong home advantage and historical success, but MLS parity makes any match competitive. Slight edge to Sounders based on typical home performance.”
55%
YES
Will Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC end in a draw?
Apr 4 · Ends 2026-04-05✓ CorrectBrier: 0.078
“Shanghai Shenhua is historically stronger and draws are relatively rare in Chinese Super League matches. Tianjin at home could be competitive but Shenhua likely to edge it.”
28%
NO
Will Zhejiang Zhiye FC vs. Chongqing Tonglianglong FC end in a draw?
Apr 4 · Ends 2026-04-05✓ CorrectBrier: 0.078
“Chinese Super League matches historically have low draw rates (~25%). Both teams likely have different competitive motivations, reducing draw probability further.”
28%
NO
Will Minnesota United FC win on 2026-04-04?
Apr 4 · Ends 2026-04-05✗ WrongBrier: 0.302
“Home advantage for LA Galaxy, Minnesota's inconsistent away form, and typical MLS parity make a win less likely than a draw or loss.”
45%
NO
Will Feyenoord Rotterdam win on 2026-04-05?
Apr 4 · Ends 2026-04-05✗ WrongBrier: 0.422
“Feyenoord is typically strong at home in Eredivisie, and without specific opponent info, their historical home advantage suggests better than even chance.”
65%
YES
Will Go Ahead Eagles vs. PEC Zwolle end in a draw?
Apr 4 · Ends 2026-04-05✓ CorrectBrier: 0.078
“Eredivisie matches between mid-table teams historically have ~25-30% draw rate. Both teams tend to play for wins, especially late in season.”
28%
NO
Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the April Meeting?
Apr 4 · Ends 2026-04-24✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Russian inflation has been moderating recently, and the central bank has signaled a cautious approach to avoid stifling economic growth. Most analysts expect rates to hold steady in April.”
35%
NO
Will San Jose Earthquakes win on 2026-04-04?
Apr 4 · Ends 2026-04-05✗ WrongBrier: 0.302
“San Jose Earthquakes historically inconsistent; away games challenging; opponent San Diego FC may have home advantage in 2026 season.”
45%
NO
Will Cúcuta Deportivo FC vs. América de Cali end in a draw?
Apr 4 · Ends 2026-04-05✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“América de Cali is historically stronger, draws are less common in Colombian football, and home advantage for Cúcuta may not be enough to level the match.”
35%
NO
Will SC Heerenveen vs. Heracles Almelo end in a draw?
Apr 4 · Ends 2026-04-05✓ CorrectBrier: 0.078
“Eredivisie matches historically have low draw rates (~25%). Both teams typically play for wins, especially in mid-table clashes. Recent form suggests one side likely to edge it.”
28%
NO
Will NAC Breda win on 2026-04-05?
Apr 4 · Ends 2026-04-05✗ WrongBrier: 0.302
“NAC Breda is a historically strong Dutch club, but specific opponent and form unknown. Slight edge given home advantage and typical performance level.”
55%
YES
Will Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Avispa Fukuoka end in a draw?
Apr 4 · Ends 2026-04-05✓ CorrectBrier: 0.078
“Sanfrecce Hiroshima is historically stronger at home, draws are less common in J1 League matches between teams of different tiers, and Fukuoka tends to play defensively but may struggle to secure a point.”
28%
NO
Will Club Santos Laguna win on 2026-04-04?
Apr 4 · Ends 2026-04-05✗ WrongBrier: 0.302
“Santos Laguna is a historically competitive Liga MX team with strong home advantage. Without specific opponent info, slight edge given to home team in Mexican football.”
55%
YES
Will FC København win on 2026-04-05?
Apr 4 · Ends 2026-04-05✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203
“FC København is historically strong in Danish Superliga, often favored at home. Without specific opponent info, slight edge given to home team advantage and recent form.”
55%
YES
Will Al Fateh Saudi Club win on 2026-04-05?
Apr 4 · Ends 2026-04-05✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203
“Al Fateh is mid-table Saudi Pro League team with inconsistent away form; opponent unknown but home advantage significant in Saudi football. Without specific opponent info, assume moderate underdog status.”
45%
NO
Will SK Slavia Praha win on 2026-04-05?
Apr 4 · Ends 2026-04-05✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Slavia Praha is historically dominant in Czech league, typically favored at home. Without specific opponent info, their strong track record suggests higher win probability.”
65%
YES
Will Club Santos Laguna vs. CF América end in a draw?
Apr 4 · Ends 2026-04-05✗ WrongBrier: 0.518
“Club América is historically stronger and draws in Liga MX are less common than wins/losses. Recent form favors América, making a draw unlikely.”
28%
NO
Will Al Okhdood SC vs. Al Fateh Saudi Club end in a draw?
Apr 4 · Ends 2026-04-05✓ CorrectBrier: 0.078
“Saudi Pro League matches historically have low draw rates (~25%). Al Fateh is typically stronger than Al Okhdood, reducing draw likelihood further.”
28%
NO
Will Kashiwa Reysol win on 2026-04-05?
Apr 4 · Ends 2026-04-05✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203
“Kashiwa Reysol is a competitive J1 League team, but without specific opponent or form data, I give a slight edge to the home team based on typical home advantage in football.”
55%
YES
Will FC Baník Ostrava win on 2026-04-05?
Apr 4 · Ends 2026-04-05✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203
“Baník Ostrava is historically competitive but faces strong opponents; without specific 2026 matchup details, slightly favor opponents given typical league parity.”
45%
NO
Will Avispa Fukuoka win on 2026-04-05?
Apr 4 · Ends 2026-04-05✗ WrongBrier: 0.302
“Avispa Fukuoka is a mid-table J1 League team with inconsistent form. Without specific opponent or home/away context, they win roughly 40-45% of matches against average opponents.”
45%
NO
Will Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC win on 2026-04-05?
Apr 4 · Ends 2026-04-05✗ WrongBrier: 0.302
“Chinese lower-league football has high unpredictability; without specific match context or team form data, assuming slight disadvantage for away team.”
45%
NO
Will Orlando City SC win on 2026-04-04?
Apr 4 · Ends 2026-04-05✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203
“MLS matches are highly unpredictable with home/away factors. Without specific opponent or form data, giving slight edge to opponent or draw.”
45%
NO
Will Houston Dynamo win on 2026-04-04?
Apr 4 · Ends 2026-04-05✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203
“Houston Dynamo historically struggles away, Seattle Sounders strong at home with solid defense. Without specific 2026 roster info, home advantage favors Seattle.”
45%
NO
Will Sparta Rotterdam win on 2026-04-05?
Apr 4 · Ends 2026-04-05✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203
“Sparta Rotterdam is a mid-table Eredivisie team with inconsistent away form. Against most opponents, their win probability is below 50% without specific matchup details.”
45%
NO
Will Lady Gaga attend the Met Gala?
Apr 4 · Ends 2026-05-04✗ WrongBrier: 0.723
“Lady Gaga is a frequent Met Gala attendee and fashion icon, with strong ties to the event's organizers. She has attended multiple times and often makes dramatic appearances.”
85%
YES
Will Vancouver Whitecaps FC vs. Portland Timbers end in a draw?
Apr 4 · Ends 2026-04-05✓ CorrectBrier: 0.078
“MLS matches historically have low draw rates (~25%), and Vancouver vs. Portland is typically a competitive rivalry with decisive results.”
28%
NO
Will Los Angeles FC win on 2026-04-04?
Apr 4 · Ends 2026-04-05✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“LAFC typically strong at home, Orlando City has inconsistent away form, and LAFC generally favored in MLS matchups at Banc of California Stadium.”
65%
YES
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets in April 2026?
Apr 4 · Ends 2026-05-01✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Elon's tweet volume has declined from peak years, averaging ~300/month recently. 460-479 is a narrow range requiring sustained high daily output, unlikely given his reduced social media focus and platform changes.”
35%
NO
Will Chongqing Tonglianglong FC win on 2026-04-05?
Apr 4 · Ends 2026-04-05✗ WrongBrier: 0.302
“Chongqing Tonglianglong FC is a lower-tier Chinese football club with inconsistent performance. Without specific opponent or match context, assuming they face stronger competition, win probability is slightly below even.”
45%
NO
Will Club León FC vs. Atlas FC end in a draw?
Apr 4 · Ends 2026-04-05✓ CorrectBrier: 0.078
“Draws occur in ~25-30% of Liga MX matches. Club León typically plays more offensively at home, reducing draw likelihood. Historical H2H shows moderate draw rate.”
28%
NO
Will Al Ettifaq Saudi Club vs. Al Qadisiyah Saudi Club end in a draw?
Apr 4 · Ends 2026-04-05✓ CorrectBrier: 0.078
“Soccer matches typically have ~25% draw rates. No specific team dominance or tactical context suggests higher draw likelihood here.”
28%
NO
Will Portland Timbers win on 2026-04-04?
Apr 4 · Ends 2026-04-05✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203
“Without specific opponent or home/away context, MLS games are typically close with home advantage significant. Assuming neutral or away conditions, slightly below even odds.”
45%
NO
Will AC Sparta Praha win on 2026-04-05?
Apr 4 · Ends 2026-04-05✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Sparta Praha is historically dominant in Czech league, typically favored against most opponents, though specific opponent unknown. Home advantage likely.”
65%
YES
Will CF Pachuca win on 2026-04-04?
Apr 4 · Ends 2026-04-05✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203
“CF Pachuca is historically strong in Liga MX, but without specific opponent or form data, slight edge given to home advantage and historical performance.”
55%
YES
Will Los Angeles FC vs. Orlando City SC end in a draw?
Apr 4 · Ends 2026-04-05✓ CorrectBrier: 0.078
“MLS matches historically have low draw rates (~25%), and LAFC typically plays aggressively at home, making a decisive result more likely than a draw.”
28%
NO
Will CF América win on 2026-04-04?
Apr 4 · Ends 2026-04-05✗ WrongBrier: 0.422
“CF América is historically strong in Liga MX, often favored in home matches. Without specific opponent info, their consistent performance suggests better than even odds.”
65%
YES
Will MFK Karviná win on 2026-04-05?
Apr 4 · Ends 2026-04-05✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203
“MFK Karviná is a lower-table Czech First League team with inconsistent form. Without specific opponent or home/away context, they're more likely to lose or draw than win.”
45%
NO
Will Kawasaki Frontale win on 2026-04-05?
Apr 4 · Ends 2026-04-05✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203
“Kawasaki Frontale is historically strong in J1 League, but specific opponent and form unknown. Slight edge based on home advantage and historical performance.”
55%
YES
Will Vissel Kōbe win on 2026-04-05?
Apr 4 · Ends 2026-04-05✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Vissel Kōbe is typically a strong J1 League team with quality players. Without specific opponent or injury info, they have a slight edge in a regular season match.”
65%
YES
Will Yokohama F·Marinos win on 2026-04-05?
Apr 4 · Ends 2026-04-05✗ WrongBrier: 0.302
“Yokohama F·Marinos are typically strong in J1 League, but specific opponent and form unknown for this future date. Slight edge given home advantage if applicable.”
55%
YES
Will Shanghai Shenhua FC win on 2026-04-05?
Apr 4 · Ends 2026-04-05✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203
“Shanghai Shenhua is typically competitive in Chinese Super League, but specific opponent and form unknown. Slight home advantage assumed for early April match.”
55%
YES
Will V-Varen Nagasaki win on 2026-04-05?
Apr 4 · Ends 2026-04-05✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203
“No specific match data available; V-Varen Nagasaki historically inconsistent in J2 League. Without opponent info, assume slightly below even odds.”
45%
NO
Will FC Hradec Králové vs. Bohemians Praha 1905 end in a draw?
Apr 4 · Ends 2026-04-05✓ CorrectBrier: 0.078
“Czech First League matches historically have ~25% draw rate. Both teams are mid-table with moderate scoring records, making a decisive result more likely than a draw.”
28%
NO
Will FC Baník Ostrava vs. SK Slavia Praha end in a draw?
Apr 4 · Ends 2026-04-05✓ CorrectBrier: 0.078
“Slavia Praha is historically stronger and typically dominates Czech league matches; draws in this fixture are relatively uncommon.”
28%
NO
Will Sanfrecce Hiroshima win on 2026-04-05?
Apr 4 · Ends 2026-04-05✗ WrongBrier: 0.422
“Sanfrecce Hiroshima is historically strong in J1 League, often performing well in April matches. Without specific opponent data, their consistent quality gives them an edge.”
65%
YES
Will Houston Dynamo vs. Seattle Sounders FC end in a draw?
Apr 4 · Ends 2026-04-05✓ CorrectBrier: 0.078
“MLS matches historically have low draw rates (~25%). Both teams typically play for wins, especially in regular season. Home advantage for Houston slightly reduces draw likelihood.”
28%
NO
Will FC Hradec Králové win on 2026-04-05?
Apr 4 · Ends 2026-04-05✗ WrongBrier: 0.302
“FC Hradec Králové is a mid-table Czech First League team with inconsistent form. Without specific opponent or home/away context, they win roughly 40-50% of matches. Slight edge to opponent given typical league dynamics.”
45%
NO
Will Chicago Fire FC vs. Nashville SC end in a draw?
Apr 4 · Ends 2026-04-05✓ CorrectBrier: 0.078
“MLS matches historically have low draw rates (~25%), and both teams typically play for results rather than settling for draws.”
28%
NO
Will Wuhan San Zhen FC win on 2026-04-05?
Apr 4 · Ends 2026-04-05✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203
“Wuhan San Zhen FC is a lower-tier Chinese club with limited public performance data. Without specific opponent information or recent form, assuming they are underdogs in most matchups.”
45%
NO
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2025–2026 NHL Presidents' Trophy?
Apr 4 · Ends 2026-04-20✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Vegas is a strong team but winning the Presidents' Trophy requires exceptional regular season consistency. With competitive teams like Colorado, Florida, and Edmonton, Vegas faces tough competition. Their focus may also shift toward playoff preparation.”
35%
NO
Will Ceará SC win on 2026-04-05?
Apr 4 · Ends 2026-04-05✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203
“Ceará SC is a mid-table Brazilian Serie B team with inconsistent away form. Without specific opponent or venue info, assuming they face a stronger side or play away reduces win probability below 50%.”
45%
NO
Will Toumani Camara lead the NBA in steals during the 2025–26 NBA season?
Apr 4 · Ends 2026-04-12✓ CorrectBrier: 0.001
“Toumani Camara is a role player averaging 0.6 steals per game in 2024-25. Leading the NBA requires elite defensive specialists averaging 2+ steals, which is far beyond his current trajectory.”
3%
NO
Will Lonzo Ball lead the NBA in steals during the 2025–26 NBA season?
Apr 4 · Ends 2026-04-12✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“Lonzo Ball has missed multiple seasons with chronic knee issues and hasn't played since 2022. Even if healthy, steals leaders typically require high minutes and defensive schemes he may not fit.”
15%
NO
Will the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) win the most seats in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election?
Apr 4 · Ends 2026-04-23✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“NCP has minimal presence in Tamil Nadu politics; DMK and AIADMK dominate. NCP unlikely to become largest party in 2026.”
15%
NO
Will MrBeast hit 480 million subscribers by April 30?
Apr 4 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“MrBeast's growth trajectory shows consistent acceleration, currently around 450M+ subscribers. With 26 days remaining and his viral content strategy, reaching 480M by April 30 is highly probable.”
85%
YES
Will Russia enter Ternuvate again by April 30?
Apr 4 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“Ternuvate appears to be a fictional or obscure location; Russia has no known strategic interest there, and no current military movements suggest such an operation within 26 days.”
15%
NO
Will Brandon Miller lead the NBA in points during the 2025–26 NBA season?
Apr 4 · Ends 2026-04-12✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“Miller is a rising star but leading the league in scoring requires elite volume and efficiency. Established superstars like Luka, Giannis, and emerging talents like Wemby are more likely contenders.”
15%
NO
Will Jalen Williams lead the NBA in steals during the 2025–26 NBA season?
Apr 4 · Ends 2026-04-12✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022
“Jalen Williams is a strong defender but has never been top-5 in steals. Players like Dejounte Murray, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and others consistently lead the category. Unlikely to jump to #1.”
15%
NO
Will Los Angeles Galaxy win on 2026-04-04?
Apr 4 · Ends 2026-04-05✗ WrongBrier: 0.302
“Home advantage and historical performance suggest slight edge, but MLS parity makes any outcome plausible.”
55%
YES
Will Nashville SC win on 2026-04-04?
Apr 4 · Ends 2026-04-05✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203
“Without specific matchup details, assuming roughly equal MLS team quality and home/away factors, Nashville has slightly below 50% chance of winning any given match.”
45%
NO
Will Vancouver Whitecaps FC win on 2026-04-04?
Apr 4 · Ends 2026-04-05✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203
“Vancouver Whitecaps have home advantage and are generally competitive, but Portland Timbers are a strong rival. Slight edge to home team.”
55%
YES
Will Gamba Ōsaka vs. Kyōto Sanga FC end in a draw?
Apr 4 · Ends 2026-04-04✓ CorrectBrier: 0.078
“Draws are relatively rare in J1 League (~25%). Gamba Osaka is typically stronger than Kyoto Sanga, making a home win more likely than a draw.”
28%
NO
Will Fortuna Sittard win on 2026-04-04?
Apr 4 · Ends 2026-04-04✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203
“Fortuna Sittard is a mid-table Eredivisie team with inconsistent form. Without specific opponent or home/away context, their win probability is slightly below even.”
45%
NO
Will Reds win?
Apr 3 · Ends 2026-04-04✗ WrongBrier: 0.302
“Without specific context about the Reds' opponent or game conditions, assuming a slight home advantage and typical MLB win rates for competitive teams.”
55%
YES
Will Southampton FC vs. Ipswich Town FC end in a draw?
Apr 3 · Ends 2026-04-28✗ WrongBrier: 0.518
“Draws occur in ~25% of Championship matches. Southampton is typically stronger at home, reducing draw likelihood slightly.”
28%
NO
Will St. Louis City SC win on 2026-04-04?
Apr 3 · Ends 2026-04-04✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203
“MLS home advantage is significant; St. Louis City SC is playing away on 2026-04-04, reducing their win probability below 50%.”
45%
NO
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets in April 2026?
Apr 3 · Ends 2026-05-01✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Elon Musk's tweet frequency has declined from peak years, averaging 50-70/month recently. 80-99 is above his current typical range, though possible during major events. Given April 2026 has no known major scheduled events, lower probability.”
35%
NO
Will Melbourne City FC win on 2026-04-04?
Apr 3 · Ends 2026-04-04✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122
“Melbourne City is typically strong at home, WSW inconsistent away. Recent form favors City, but derbies can be unpredictable.”
65%
YES
Will Ventforet Kōfu win on 2026-04-04?
Apr 3 · Ends 2026-04-04✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203
“Ventforet Kōfu is a mid-table J2 League team with inconsistent form. Without specific opponent or home/away context, their win probability is slightly below even.”
45%
NO
Will Fukushima United FC win on 2026-04-04?
Apr 3 · Ends 2026-04-04✗ WrongBrier: 0.302
“Fukushima United is a mid-table J3 League team with inconsistent form. Without specific opponent or home/away context, their win probability is slightly below even.”
45%
NO
Will 1. FC Slovácko win on 2026-04-04?
Apr 3 · Ends 2026-04-04✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203
“Czech First League matches are typically competitive with home/away factors. Without specific opponent or form data, assuming moderate chance but slightly favoring opponent.”
45%
NO
Will Damac Saudi Club win on 2026-04-04?
Apr 3 · Ends 2026-04-04✗ WrongBrier: 0.302
“Damac Saudi Club has moderate home advantage and recent decent form, but Saudi league matches can be unpredictable. Slight edge based on typical home performance.”
55%
YES
Will Nagoya Grampus vs. Cerezo Ōsaka end in a draw?
Apr 3 · Ends 2026-04-04✓ CorrectBrier: 0.078
“J-League matches historically have relatively low draw rates (~25-30%). Both teams are competitive mid-table sides with offensive capabilities, making a decisive result more likely than a draw.”
28%
NO
Will Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC end in a draw?
Apr 3 · Ends 2026-04-04✓ CorrectBrier: 0.078
“Beijing Guoan is historically stronger; draws in Chinese Super League are less common than wins/losses; home advantage for Liaoning may not be enough to level the match.”
28%
NO
Will Al Hilal Saudi Club win on 2026-04-04?
Apr 3 · Ends 2026-04-04✗ WrongBrier: 0.563
“Al Hilal is historically dominant in Saudi football, consistently performing well against domestic opponents. Without specific opponent info, their strong track record suggests high likelihood of victory.”
75%
YES
Will Kashima Antlers win on 2026-04-04?
Apr 3 · Ends 2026-04-04✗ WrongBrier: 0.422
“Kashima Antlers are historically strong in J1 League, typically performing well in April matches. Without specific opponent info, their home advantage and form give them an edge.”
65%
YES
Will Tigres de la UANL win on 2026-04-03?
Apr 3 · Ends 2026-04-04✗ WrongBrier: 0.422
“Tigres is historically strong at home, but opponent quality and current form unknown. Slight edge to home team in Liga MX.”
65%
YES
Will SK Sigma Olomouc vs. FK Mladá Boleslav end in a draw?
Apr 3 · Ends 2026-04-04✓ CorrectBrier: 0.078
“Czech First League matches historically have draw rates around 25-30%. Both teams are mid-table with moderate scoring records, making a draw plausible but less likely than a decisive result.”
28%
NO
Will AD Cali win on 2026-04-03?
Apr 3 · Ends 2026-04-04✓ CorrectBrier: 0.250
“No specific information about AD Cali or the event context provided. Without details about the competition, opponents, or stakes, this is a pure 50/50 guess.”
50%
YES
Will Gamba Ōsaka win on 2026-04-04?
Apr 3 · Ends 2026-04-04✗ WrongBrier: 0.302
“Gamba Osaka has inconsistent form, and away matches in J1 League are typically competitive with home advantage mattering. Without specific opponent info, lean slightly against them winning.”
45%
NO