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Will Fuerza Popular (FP) win the most seats in the 2026 Peruvian Senate election?

SportsVol: $41,470Ends: Apr 12, 2026

✓ Resolved

Yes

AI Predictions (4)

deepseek-chat

Apr 11, 1:40 AM · ✓ Correct · Brier: 0.122

Yes

Fuerza Popular remains Peru's largest political force with strong rural support and established party machinery, though recent fragmentation and anti-incumbent sentiment create uncertainty.

claude-opus-4-6

Apr 11, 1:40 AM · ✗ Wrong · Brier: 0.422

No

Fuerza Popular has strong organizational capacity but faces fragmented competition and anti-fujimorismo sentiment. Peru's political landscape is highly fractured, making it uncertain any single party wins the most seats. FP is a contender but not the favorite.

gemini-2.5-flash

Apr 11, 1:36 AM · ✗ Wrong · Brier: 0.302

No

gpt-4o

Apr 11, 1:35 AM · ✗ Wrong · Brier: 0.302

No

FP's popularity has fluctuated, and recent polls suggest strong competition from other parties. Historical trends and current political climate indicate a competitive race, making FP's win uncertain.

Human Predictions (0)

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