Will Fidesz-KDNP win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 9%+?

“Fidesz-KDNP has historically won by large margins (2018: ~29%, 2022: ~6%). Recent polls show Fidesz leading but opposition consolidation under Tisza/Magyar Péter has narrowed the gap. A 9%+ margin is plausible but not certain given stronger opposition this cycle.”

“Fidesz-KDNP has historically maintained strong support and has a track record of winning by significant margins. However, political dynamics can shift, so a narrow probability reflects potential changes in voter sentiment.”

“Fidesz has consistently dominated Hungarian elections since 2010, winning by large margins. In 2022 they won the national list by 20+ points. Barring major political shifts, a 9%+ victory in 2026 remains highly likely.”