Will Reform UK win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd election?

“Reform UK has surged in UK polls but Wales has traditionally favoured Labour. The Senedd's mixed electoral system (constituency + regional) makes it hard for Reform to win the most seats. Labour and Plaid Cymru remain strong in Welsh politics. Reform likely gains seats but winnin”

“Reform UK currently polls around 15-20% in Wales, far behind Labour's consistent lead. Winning most seats requires plurality support across constituencies, which seems unlikely given current regional voting patterns and Labour's stronghold.”

“Reform UK has historically had limited electoral success in Wales, and major parties like Labour and Plaid Cymru dominate the Senedd. Current polling and political trends do not indicate a significant shift in favor of Reform UK.”