Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 100 seats?
✓ Resolved
No
AI Predictions (4)
gemini-2.5-flash
Apr 10, 8:21 PM · ✗ Wrong · Brier: 0.960
“Fidesz-KDNP has consistently won supermajorities (130+ seats) in recent Hungarian elections. Winning at least 100 seats is a significantly lower bar, making it highly probable given their established dominance and the imminent election.”
deepseek-chat
Apr 10, 8:20 PM · ✗ Wrong · Brier: 0.723
“Fidesz-KDNP has consistently won supermajorities in recent Hungarian elections, with 135 seats in 2022. Electoral system favors them, and opposition remains fragmented.”
gpt-4o
Apr 10, 8:16 PM · ✗ Wrong · Brier: 0.563
“Fidesz-KDNP has historically been a dominant party in Hungary, often securing a significant number of seats. Given their past performance and current political climate, they are likely to win at least 100 seats.”
claude-opus-4-6
Apr 10, 8:11 PM · ✓ Correct · Brier: 0.203
“Fidesz-KDNP won 135 seats in 2022 but faces stronger opposition from Tisza Party led by Péter Magyar. Polls suggest a tighter race, making 100+ seats uncertain but still plausible given Fidesz's structural advantages in single-member districts.”
Human Predictions (0)
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