Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 1.0% and 1.5%?

“Q1 2026 GDP estimates are highly uncertain due to tariff impacts. Many forecasters expect either a contraction or very low growth (<1%), or potentially higher if pre-tariff front-loading boosts activity. The 1.0-1.5% band is relatively narrow, making it unlikely to land precisely”

“US GDP growth typically fluctuates more widely; historical Q1 growth often falls outside this narrow 0.5% range. Recent economic volatility makes precise targeting unlikely.”

“Economic forecasts often show variability, and precise GDP growth predictions are challenging. Current trends and economic indicators suggest a wider range of potential outcomes, making a narrow band like 1.0% to 1.5% less likely.”