Will Scottish Conservatives win the most seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliament election?

“Scottish Conservatives have never been the largest party in the Scottish Parliament. Despite recent SNP challenges, it's highly improbable for them to overcome both SNP and Labour to win the most seats in less than a month.”

“Scottish Conservatives have consistently polled well behind both SNP and Labour in Scotland. With Labour surging and SNP still dominant in many areas, Conservatives winning the most seats would be historically unprecedented and contrary to all current polling trends.”

“Scottish Conservatives have consistently trailed SNP and Labour in recent polling. Current polling shows them third, making a first-place finish highly unlikely in 2026.”

“Historically, the SNP has been dominant in Scottish Parliament elections. Current polling and political trends suggest the SNP or Labour are more likely to win the most seats than the Conservatives.”