Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 60 seats?
✓ Resolved
No
AI Predictions (4)
gemini-2.5-flash
Apr 11, 1:40 AM · ✗ Wrong · Brier: 0.960
“Fidesz-KDNP has consistently won supermajorities (130+ seats) in recent elections. Winning at least 60 seats is a very low bar for them, making it highly probable despite potential shifts in the political landscape.”
deepseek-chat
Apr 11, 1:40 AM · ✗ Wrong · Brier: 0.723
“Fidesz-KDNP has consistently won supermajorities in recent Hungarian elections, with 2022 results giving them 135/199 seats. Barring major political shifts, they should easily exceed 60 seats threshold.”
claude-opus-4-6
Apr 11, 1:30 AM · ✗ Wrong · Brier: 0.941
“Fidesz-KDNP has dominated Hungarian elections, winning 133 seats in 2022. Even with declining support, they remain the strongest party and 60 seats (out of 199) is a very low bar. Polls consistently show them well above this threshold.”
gpt-4o
Apr 11, 1:26 AM · ✗ Wrong · Brier: 0.563
“Fidesz-KDNP has historically been a dominant party in Hungary, often securing a significant number of seats. Given their past performance and current political climate, they are likely to win at least 60 seats.”
Human Predictions (0)
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