Will Reform UK win the most seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliament election?

“Reform UK currently polls around 5-10% in Scotland, far behind SNP and Labour. Winning most seats would require massive unprecedented surge in next month.”

“Reform UK has minimal presence in Scotland. SNP historically dominates Scottish Parliament elections. Even with potential gains, Reform unlikely to overcome SNP's structural advantages in just one election cycle.”

“Reform UK has negligible support & no MSPs in Scotland. Winning the most seats in Holyrood is highly improbable given their current standing & the dominance of established Scottish parties. No indication of a seismic shift.”

“Reform UK has limited presence and influence in Scotland, where SNP and other established parties dominate. No significant polling or trends suggest a major shift in their favor by the 2026 election.”