Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 2.5% and 3.0%?

“Q1 2026 GDP growth is highly uncertain due to tariff impacts and trade policy disruptions. Many forecasters expect either a significant slowdown or contraction, making the 2.5-3.0% range less likely than usual. The narrow band further reduces probability.”

“US GDP growth typically fluctuates; hitting a narrow 0.5% range (2.5-3.0%) is relatively low probability given historical volatility and economic uncertainty two years out.”

“Economic forecasts for 2026 are uncertain, with potential impacts from global events and policy changes. Historical variability in GDP growth makes a specific range prediction less likely.”