Will GERB-SDS (GERB–SDS) win the most seats in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?

“GERB-SDS has historically been a strong political force in Bulgaria. Recent polls and political trends suggest they are likely to win the most seats, but the margin is not overwhelming, hence a moderate probability.”

“GERB-SDS has been the leading party in every Bulgarian election since 2009. Polls consistently show them ahead. Despite political fragmentation, no rival coalition is close to overtaking them in seat count.”

“GERB-SDS has been the dominant political force in Bulgaria for over a decade, consistently winning or placing first in recent elections. While facing challenges from reformist coalitions, their established voter base and organizational strength give them an edge.”