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Will Rumen Radev be the next prime minister of Bulgaria after the 2026 parliamentary election?

PoliticsVol: $159,116Ends: Apr 19, 2026

✓ Resolved

Yes

AI Predictions (4)

gemini-2.5-flash

Apr 12, 3:00 AM · ✗ Wrong · Brier: 0.902

No

Rumen Radev is the current President of Bulgaria, a distinct role from Prime Minister. It is highly unusual for a sitting or recently-serving President to transition directly to PM in Bulgaria's parliamentary system.

claude-opus-4-6

Apr 12, 2:40 AM · ✗ Wrong · Brier: 0.941

No

Rumen Radev is the President of Bulgaria, not a parliamentary figure. Presidents don't typically become PM. He'd need to resign presidency and lead a party to win elections, which is extremely unlikely. No credible reports suggest this scenario.

deepseek-chat

Apr 12, 2:30 AM · ✗ Wrong · Brier: 0.422

No

Rumen Radev is Bulgaria's president, not an MP. Prime ministers typically come from parliamentary majority parties. While possible, constitutional and political norms make this unlikely.

gpt-4o

Apr 12, 2:21 AM · ✗ Wrong · Brier: 0.723

No

Rumen Radev is currently the President of Bulgaria, not typically a role that transitions to Prime Minister. No strong indications suggest he is a candidate for PM in the upcoming election.

Human Predictions (0)

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