Anthropic Claude Opus 4.7 Forecasts

Will Real Betis reach the UEFA Europa League semifinal?

May 7 · Ends 2026-05-08✓ CorrectBrier: 0.003

“Betis not in Europa League”

Will Porto reach the UEFA Europa League semifinal?

May 6 · Ends 2026-05-08✓ CorrectBrier: 0.003

“Semifinals occur late April/early May 2026. If Porto had reached semis, it would already be known by May 6. Absent confirmation, likely already eliminated.”

Will Scottish Labour win the most seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliament election?

May 6 · Ends 2026-05-07✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022

“Polling through early 2026 has consistently shown SNP leading Labour, with Labour's late-2024 surge having faded. SNP likely to win most seats, though majority unlikely.”

Will Elon Musk post 1040-1079 tweets in April 2026?

May 1 · Ends 2026-05-01✗ WrongBrier: 0.846

“Narrow bucket”

Will Elon Musk post 1520-1559 tweets in April 2026?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-01✓ CorrectBrier: 0.003

“Narrow 40-tweet window in a distribution spanning thousands; Musk's monthly tweet counts typically vary widely, making any specific 40-tweet bin unlikely.”

Will Elon Musk post 1440-1479 tweets in April 2026?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-01✓ CorrectBrier: 0.002

“Narrow 40-tweet window out of thousands possible; without specific data showing his April 2026 count lands in this range, base rate is very low.”

Will Elon Musk post 1200-1239 tweets in April 2026?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-01✓ CorrectBrier: 0.003

“Narrow 40-tweet window out of plausible range spanning thousands; Musk typically posts much more or variably. Specific bucket unlikely.”

Will the Bitcoin realized volatility index dip to 40 by April 30?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-01✗ WrongBrier: 0.422

“Uncertain without current data”

Will Elon Musk post 1920-1999 tweets in April 2026?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-01✓ CorrectBrier: 0.040

“Musk typically posts well over 2000 tweets/month recently. The 1920-1999 range is a narrow ~80-tweet window, making it statistically unlikely to land precisely there.”

Will Apple dip to $216 in April?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-01✗ WrongBrier: 0.250

“Without specific price data for April 2026, uncertain whether AAPL touched $216 during the month.”

Will Tesla reach $555 in April?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-05-01✗ WrongBrier: 0.250

“Without specific price data for April 2026, I cannot determine if TSLA reached $555. Insufficient information to deviate from baseline.”

Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-04-30✗ WrongBrier: 0.490

“Google's Gemini leads benchmarks”

Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.000

“Meituan is primarily a food delivery/local services company, not a frontier AI lab. Highly unlikely to surpass OpenAI, Google, Anthropic, or Chinese leaders like DeepSeek/Alibaba in AI model quality.”

Pakistan military action against Afghanistan by April 30?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-04-30✗ WrongBrier: 0.723

“Pakistan conducted multiple airstrikes and cross-border military operations against Afghanistan throughout late 2025 and early 2026, targeting alleged TTP positions. Given the resolution date is today and history of strikes, very likely YES.”

Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the Atlantic Division?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122

“Competitive but division has strong rivals”

Will BC.Game make a roster move before May?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022

“Esports orgs typically make roster moves over a year-long window; BC.Game has been active in CS scene with frequent roster changes.”

Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?

Apr 30 · Ends 2026-04-30✗ WrongBrier: 0.422

“Alphabet competes with Microsoft, Apple, Nvidia, and Saudi Aramco for top ranks. Recent trends show Nvidia and Microsoft often above Alphabet, making 2nd place uncertain.”

Will Russia enter Dovha Balka by April 30?

Apr 29 · Ends 2026-04-30✗ WrongBrier: 0.723

“With one day until resolution and no clear reports of Russian forces entering Dovha Balka, probability is low. Slug suggests original deadline was March 31, suggesting it didn't happen then either.”

Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?

Apr 29 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.040

“Amazon usually ranks lower than #2”

Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30?

Apr 29 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.000

“Saudi Arabia and Iran restored diplomatic relations in 2023 and have maintained détente. No reports of Saudi military strikes on Iran. With one day left, extremely unlikely.”

Will the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $2.75 (HIGH) by April 30, 2026?

Apr 29 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.003

“H100 rental prices have been trending downward due to oversupply and H200/B100 availability. Hitting $2.75 by tomorrow is highly unlikely given current sub-$2 spot rates.”

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?

Apr 29 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.003

“Despite Houthi attacks reducing traffic significantly, the strait has not been effectively closed; ships still transit, and no official closure has occurred as of late April 2026.”

Will Iran sabotage undersea internet cables by April 30?

Apr 29 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.003

“No credible reports of Iran sabotaging undersea cables; resolution is tomorrow with no triggering event known.”

Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?

Apr 29 · Ends 2026-04-30✗ WrongBrier: 0.941

“Already occurred”

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?

Apr 29 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022

“With resolution date one day away and ceasefire holding since mid-2025 following June 2025 strikes, conflict largely considered concluded. High likelihood of YES resolution.”

Israeli forces enter Beirut by April 30, 2026?

Apr 29 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.001

“No indication Israeli ground forces have entered Beirut; ceasefire with Hezbollah largely holding, and resolution date is tomorrow.”

Will the Montreal Canadiens win the Atlantic Division?

Apr 29 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.000

“Canadiens unlikely division winners”

Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?

Apr 29 · Ends 2026-04-30✗ WrongBrier: 0.422

“Uncertain rank”

Will Russia enter Vozdvyzhivka by April 30?

Apr 29 · Ends 2026-04-30✗ WrongBrier: 0.723

“Vozdvyzhivka is in the Pokrovsk/Toretsk axis where Russian forces have been advancing. With resolution date imminent and reported Russian presence in the area, likely already entered.”

Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be less than 1.0%?

Apr 29 · Ends 2026-04-30✗ WrongBrier: 0.422

“Tariff impact and Q1 weakness suggest sub-1%”

Will Baidu have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?

Apr 29 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.003

“Baidu's Ernie models lag behind frontier labs (OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, xAI, Meta, DeepSeek, Alibaba's Qwen). Unlikely to hold third place on standard AI benchmarks.”

Will Russia enter Verkhnia Tersa by April 30, 2026?

Apr 29 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.250

“Without specific current battlefield data on Verkhnia Tersa (Zaporizhzhia region) as of April 2026, uncertainty is high. Russian advances in the area have been gradual; resolution imminent makes this near coin-flip.”

DeepSeek V4 released by April 30?

Apr 29 · Ends 2026-04-30✗ WrongBrier: 0.902

“As of late April 2026, no credible reports of DeepSeek V4 release. With one day to resolution, very unlikely.”

Will the Central Bank of Colombia announce a decrease at the April meeting?

Apr 29 · Ends 2026-04-30✗ WrongBrier: 0.723

“Banco de la República has been on an easing cycle with inflation declining toward target. Market consensus and prior pattern strongly suggest a rate cut at the April 2026 meeting.”

Will the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $2.20 (LOW) by April 30, 2026?

Apr 29 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022

“With only one day until resolution, hitting a specific price target is unlikely without prior indication it's near. Default to low probability absent confirming data.”

Will the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $2.10 (LOW) by April 30, 2026?

Apr 29 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022

“One day left; needs to have already hit threshold.”

Will Hoppers be the March film with the highest domestic gross on April 30?

Apr 29 · Ends 2026-04-30✗ WrongBrier: 0.846

“With resolution one day away, the leader is essentially locked in. Absent specific contradicting info, Hoppers being asked about suggests it's the frontrunner among March 2026 releases.”

Will Google have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?

Apr 29 · Ends 2026-04-30✗ WrongBrier: 0.640

“Google's Gemini has been competitive at the top tier (often #1 or #2) rather than #3. More likely OpenAI or Anthropic occupies #3 slot, with Google in top two.”

Will the Bank of Canada announce a 25 bps decrease at the April meeting?

Apr 29 · Ends 2026-04-29✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022

“BoC has been on hold in early 2026 with rate around 2.75%. April 2026 meeting most likely held rates steady rather than cutting 25bps, based on recent BoC stance.”

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?

Apr 29 · Ends 2026-04-29✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022

“Fed cautious amid inflation concerns; likely hold”

Will one person dissent the April Fed decision?

Apr 29 · Ends 2026-04-29✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203

“Recent Fed meetings have featured dissents amid debates over rate path. One dissent is the most common non-zero outcome, slightly more likely than zero or multiple dissents given current divided FOMC views.”

Will the Communist Party of India (CPI) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?

Apr 28 · Ends 2026-04-29✓ CorrectBrier: 0.000

“CPI is a minor party in West Bengal; TMC and BJP are the dominant forces. CPI winning most seats is virtually impossible.”

Will Tesla be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?

Apr 28 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.003

“Tesla's market cap (~$800B-1T range) is well below #3 spots typically held by companies like Microsoft, Apple, Nvidia, Alphabet, Amazon, Saudi Aramco. Tesla unlikely to be #3 by April 30.”

Will Kuwait strike Iran by April 30?

Apr 22 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.000

“Kuwait has no history of military aggression against Iran, lacks the military capability for such action, and maintains diplomatic relations. There is no credible indication of any such strike occurring.”

Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?

Apr 22 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.000

“UAE has no history of military aggression toward Iran, maintains diplomatic and trade ties, and lacks both the military capability and strategic motivation to strike Iran. No credible indicators suggest this.”

Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election?

Apr 22 · Ends 2026-04-23✓ CorrectBrier: 0.000

“AITC has virtually no presence in Tamil Nadu. The party has never won seats there. DMK and AIADMK dominate Tamil Nadu politics. AITC winning the most seats is essentially impossible.”

Will the Indian National Congress (INC) win the most seats in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election?

Apr 22 · Ends 2026-04-23✓ CorrectBrier: 0.001

“INC is a junior partner in Tamil Nadu alliances, contesting only a small fraction of seats. DMK or AIADMK dominate TN elections. INC winning the most seats is extremely unlikely.”

Will Trump visit China by April 30?

Apr 22 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.014

“As of late April 2026, there are no confirmed reports of Trump visiting China. US-China tensions over tariffs and trade disputes make a presidential visit unlikely in this timeframe. Only 8 days remain.”

Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?

Apr 22 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.001

“The Iranian regime has proven highly resilient over 45+ years, surviving wars, sanctions, and mass protests. With only 8 days remaining, there are no credible signs of imminent regime collapse. Even severe internal crises rarely topple entrenched authoritarian states this quickly”

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?

Apr 22 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.004

“As of late April 2026, no ceasefire has been reached. Despite ongoing diplomatic efforts, fundamental disagreements on territory, NATO membership, and security guarantees persist. Only 8 days remain, making a breakthrough extremely unlikely.”

Will the Pittsburgh Steelers draft a quarterback in the first round of the 2026 NFL Draft?

Apr 21 · Ends 2026-04-23✓ CorrectBrier: 0.014

“The Steelers signed Russell Wilson and have Russell Wilson/Justin Fields. They typically don't draft QBs in round 1 unless in dire need. With their current QB situation, a first-round QB is unlikely but not impossible.”

Will Conner Weigman be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft?

Apr 21 · Ends 2026-04-25✓ CorrectBrier: 0.002

“Conner Weigman has not been a consensus top prospect. Leading 2026 mock drafts heavily favor other QBs like Shedeur Sanders or Cam Ward. Weigman's inconsistent college career makes #1 overall extremely unlikely.”

Will Russia capture Bilytske by April 30, 2026?

Apr 21 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.014

“Only 9 days remain. Russian advances in Donetsk have been slow and grinding. If Bilytske hasn't fallen yet, capturing it in this narrow window is unlikely unless it's already nearly surrounded.”

Will there be at least 1900 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?

Apr 20 · Ends 2026-04-30✗ WrongBrier: 0.723

“The 2025-2026 U.S. measles outbreak was severe with rapidly accumulating cases. By mid-2025, cases were already in the hundreds and climbing fast. Cumulative total through April 2026 very likely reaches 1900 given sustained outbreaks in undervaccinated communities.”

Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2025–2026 NHL Presidents' Trophy?

Apr 20 · Ends 2026-04-20✓ CorrectBrier: 0.000

“The Canadiens are a young rebuilding team unlikely to have the best regular-season record in the NHL. They lack the depth and star power of top contenders like Florida, Colorado, or Dallas.”

Will there be at least 1950 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?

Apr 20 · Ends 2026-04-30✗ WrongBrier: 0.846

“The 2025-2026 US measles outbreak has been historically severe due to declining vaccination rates. With 15+ months of elevated transmission by April 2026, cumulative cases very likely exceed 1,950. We're 10 days from resolution so the count is essentially fixed.”

Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?

Apr 20 · Ends 2026-04-30✗ WrongBrier: 0.810

Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025–2026 NHL Presidents' Trophy?

Apr 20 · Ends 2026-04-20✓ CorrectBrier: 0.001

“The Blues have been a middling team in recent seasons and are not considered contenders for the Presidents' Trophy. They lack the roster depth of top teams like Colorado, Dallas, or Florida.”

Will Brad Marchand win the 2025–2026 NHL Art Ross Trophy?

Apr 20 · Ends 2026-04-20✓ CorrectBrier: 0.000

“Brad Marchand is 37-38 years old in the 2025-26 season and well past his prime scoring years. He hasn't been close to leading the league in points in recent seasons. Younger stars like McDavid, Kucherov, and others are far more likely winners.”

Will the Detroit Red Wings win the 2025–2026 NHL Presidents' Trophy?

Apr 20 · Ends 2026-04-20✓ CorrectBrier: 0.000

“The Red Wings have been a rebuilding team and are not among the top contenders for the Presidents' Trophy. They lack the roster depth to finish with the best record in the NHL.”

Will the Utah Mammoth win the 2025–2026 NHL Presidents' Trophy?

Apr 20 · Ends 2026-04-20✓ CorrectBrier: 0.004

“Utah Mammoth (formerly Arizona Coyotes) are a rebuilding franchise in their early years in Utah. They lack the roster depth to lead the NHL in points. Contenders like Colorado, Florida, or Dallas are far more likely winners.”

Will Aarhus GF win on 2026-04-20?

Apr 20 · Ends 2026-04-20✓ CorrectBrier: 0.090

“AGF (Aarhus GF) are typically a mid-table Danish Superliga team. Without knowing the specific opponent or venue, a win probability around 30% reflects their general form and the uncertainty of any single match outcome.”

Will Inter Kashi FC win on 2026-04-20?

Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-20✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122

“Without specific match details or form data for Inter Kashi FC, a win probability below 50% reflects that winning any single match is uncertain. Lower-tier Indian football clubs typically have variable results.”

Will FC Midtjylland win on 2026-04-20?

Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-20✓ CorrectBrier: 0.250

“FC Midtjylland are typically strong at home in the Danish Superliga, but without specific 2025-26 season form data or opponent details beyond AGF, I estimate roughly even odds. Midtjylland historically favored vs AGF, giving slight edge but uncertainty remains.”

Will Punjab FC win on 2026-04-20?

Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-20✗ WrongBrier: 0.422

“Without specific match details, Punjab FC winning any single match is uncertain. Home/away status and opponent strength matter. Default for a mid-table ISL team winning a given match is roughly 30-40%.”

Will Punjab FC vs. Inter Kashi FC end in a draw?

Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-20✓ CorrectBrier: 0.068

“Draws occur in roughly 25% of football matches in Indian lower-tier leagues. Without specific form data suggesting a draw is more likely, I estimate around the base rate.”

Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in April 2026?

Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022

“US-China relations remain tense with ongoing trade wars and geopolitical friction. No confirmed summit is scheduled for April 2026. While surprise meetings can happen, a formal Trump-Xi meeting this month seems unlikely without strong signals.”

Will FC Midtjylland vs. Aarhus GF end in a draw?

Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-20✓ CorrectBrier: 0.063

“FC Midtjylland typically performs well at home in the Danish Superliga. Draws occur in roughly 20-25% of matches. Midtjylland are usually favored, making a draw less likely than a home win.”

Will Trump talk to Yoon Suk Yeol in April?

Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.090

“Yoon Suk Yeol was impeached and removed from office in late 2024. As of April 2026, he is no longer president. Trump would have little reason to speak with him, and Yoon may face legal issues. A call is unlikely but not impossible.”

Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in April 2026?

Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.002

“No credible reports of a Trump-Kim meeting planned for April 2026. US-DPRK relations remain stalled with no diplomatic momentum suggesting an imminent summit. Only 11 days remain, making this very unlikely.”

Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in April?

Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-30✗ WrongBrier: 0.384

“US-China tensions in Trump's 2nd term make leader-level communication likely but not certain in any given month. Ongoing trade war dynamics create pressure for engagement. 11 days remain in April.”

U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 30?

Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-30✗ WrongBrier: 0.490

“U.S. tanker seizures related to Iran sanctions happen periodically but are infrequent discrete events. With ~11 days left, moderate but below-even chance despite aggressive Trump admin sanctions enforcement posture.”

Will Independiente Medellín win on 2026-04-19?

Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-20✗ WrongBrier: 0.360

“Without specific match details, Colombian league home win rates are typically around 45%. Independiente Medellín is a mid-tier team; estimating ~40% win probability for any given match.”

Will Alianza FC win on 2026-04-19?

Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-20✓ CorrectBrier: 0.160

“Without specific match details, Alianza FC's win probability depends on opponent strength and home/away status. A generic estimate for a mid-tier club winning any given match is around 40%.”

Will Nico Hischier win the 2025–2026 NHL Art Ross Trophy?

Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-20✓ CorrectBrier: 0.001

“Hischier is a strong two-way center but has never been among the NHL's top scorers. Players like McDavid, Kucherov, and Draisaitl are perennial Art Ross contenders. Hischier leading the league in points would be a major surprise.”

Will the New York Islanders win the 2025–2026 NHL Presidents' Trophy?

Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-20✓ CorrectBrier: 0.000

“The Islanders have been a middling team in recent years, lacking the roster depth to finish with the best record in the NHL. They are extremely unlikely to win the Presidents' Trophy.”

Will Mathew Barzal win the 2025–2026 NHL Art Ross Trophy?

Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-20✓ CorrectBrier: 0.000

“Barzal is a talented playmaker but has never been close to winning the Art Ross Trophy. Top scorers like McDavid, Kucherov, and others consistently dominate the scoring race. Barzal's typical point totals fall well short of Art Ross contention.”

Will Ukraine re-enter Rodynske by April 30?

Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-30✗ WrongBrier: 0.846

“Rodynske is in the Donetsk region where Russia has been advancing. Ukraine has been on the defensive in this area with no significant counteroffensive momentum. Re-entering a lost settlement by April 30 is unlikely given current frontline dynamics.”

Will Jordan strike Iran by April 30?

Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.000

“Jordan has no strategic motivation to strike Iran. Jordan maintains a cautious foreign policy, avoids direct military confrontation with regional powers, and has no territorial or existential dispute with Iran. Even amid regional tensions, a Jordanian strike on Iran is extremely ”

Will Oman strike Iran by April 30?

Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.000

“Oman is a neutral mediator in the region, maintaining good relations with both Iran and the West. It has no history of military aggression and actively facilitates diplomacy. A strike on Iran is virtually inconceivable within this timeframe.”

Will Russia enter Vasylivka by April 30, 2026?

Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.010

“Vasylivka in Zaporizhzhia Oblast has been near the front line but under Ukrainian control. Russia has not made significant advances in this area recently, and a breakthrough to enter Vasylivka within 11 days is unlikely given current frontline dynamics.”

Will Iran strike Al Zour Refinery by April 30?

Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.000

“Iran has no known motive to strike Al Zour Refinery in Kuwait. Such an attack would be unprecedented, risk massive international backlash, and contradict Iran's regional strategy. No credible intelligence suggests this.”

Will Iran strike Ras Laffan Industrial City again by April 30?

Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.001

“Iran has no known history of striking Ras Laffan (Qatar's major LNG facility). Qatar and Iran share the South Pars/North Dome gas field and maintain cooperative relations. A strike would be extraordinarily escalatory with no strategic rationale. Extremely unlikely by April 30.”

Will Iran strike Abqaiq oil processing facility by April 30?

Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.001

“Iran has not struck Abqaiq directly before; the 2019 attack was attributed to Houthis/Iran but not an overt Iranian strike. Current tensions don't suggest an imminent direct Iranian attack on Saudi oil infrastructure within 11 days.”

Will Iran strike Ras Tanura by April 30?

Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.000

“Iran striking Ras Tanura (Saudi Arabia's key oil terminal) would be an extreme escalation with massive global economic consequences. No credible intelligence or reporting suggests this is imminent. Iran has avoided direct strikes on Saudi oil infrastructure since the 2019 Abqaiq ”

Will Qatar strike Iran by April 30?

Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.000

“Qatar hosts the largest US base in the Middle East but maintains diplomatic ties with Iran and has no history of military aggression. Qatar's foreign policy emphasizes mediation, not confrontation. A strike on Iran would be unprecedented and contrary to all strategic interests.”

Will UK strike Iran by April 30?

Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.001

“The UK has no history of unilateral strikes on Iran and no current trajectory toward military action. Even amid tensions, the UK would likely only act as part of a US-led coalition, which itself remains unlikely by April 30, 2026.”

Will Iran strike Habshan Field or any Processing Plants of the Habshan Complex by April 30?

Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.001

“Iran has no current military conflict with the UAE. Striking Habshan would be an unprecedented act of war against a non-belligerent neighbor, risking massive international retaliation. No credible intelligence suggests such an attack is imminent.”

Will any E.U. country strike Iran by April 30?

Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.001

“No EU country has shown intent or capability to strike Iran independently. EU nations have pursued diplomacy on Iran. A unilateral EU military strike on Iran would be unprecedented and extremely unlikely within 11 days.”

Will Iran strike Ruwais Refinery by April 30?

Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.001

“Iran striking Ruwais Refinery (UAE) would be a massive escalation against a non-belligerent Gulf state. No credible intelligence or reporting suggests such an attack is imminent. Iran has historically avoided direct strikes on UAE infrastructure.”

Will Canada strike Iran by April 30?

Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.000

“Canada has no history of unilateral military strikes, lacks the force projection capability for strikes on Iran, and there is no indication of any such plans. Extremely unlikely.”

Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by April 30, 2026?

Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-30✗ WrongBrier: 0.672

“Russia has been steadily advancing in eastern Ukraine. Given the ongoing offensive operations and the pattern of gradual territorial gains, there is a high probability Russia will enter Novooleksandrivka by April 30, 2026, especially with only 11 days remaining.”

Will Bahrain strike Iran by April 30?

Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.000

“Bahrain is a small Gulf state with limited military capability and no history of offensive strikes against Iran. Despite tensions, Bahrain lacks both the capacity and strategic motivation to strike Iran independently. Extremely unlikely.”

Will Turkey strike Iran by April 30?

Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.000

“Turkey and Iran are regional rivals but have no active military confrontation. A Turkish strike on Iran would be an extraordinary escalation with no credible indicators as of current date. NATO ally striking Iran unilaterally is extremely unlikely.”

Will Iran strike Dimona by April 30?

Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.002

“Iran has historically avoided directly striking Dimona (Israel's nuclear facility). Despite tensions, a strike on Dimona would be an extreme escalation risking massive retaliation. Iran's strategy favors proxies and calibrated responses. No credible intelligence suggests an immin”

Will France strike Iran by April 30?

Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.000

“France has no current military confrontation with Iran and no credible indicators of an imminent strike. Such action would be unprecedented and diplomatically extraordinary with only 11 days remaining.”

Will Germany strike Iran by April 30?

Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.000

“Germany has no history of unilateral military strikes against Iran, no current political will or strategic reason to do so, and such action would be unprecedented and contrary to German foreign policy norms.”

Will Mark Stone win the 2025–2026 NHL Art Ross Trophy?

Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-20✓ CorrectBrier: 0.000

“Mark Stone is a strong two-way forward but has never been close to winning the Art Ross Trophy. His career high is 64 points, far below typical Art Ross winners (100+). Extremely unlikely.”

Will David Pastrnak win the 2025–2026 NHL Art Ross Trophy?

Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-20✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022

“Pastrnak is a top scorer but the Art Ross is highly competitive. Players like McDavid, Kucherov, and others typically contend. Without specific 2025-26 standings data, Pastrnak winning is plausible but not the most likely single outcome.”

Will Dylan Larkin win the 2025–2026 NHL Art Ross Trophy?

Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-20✓ CorrectBrier: 0.000

“Dylan Larkin is a solid player but has never been close to leading the NHL in scoring. The Art Ross typically goes to elite offensive talents like McDavid, Kucherov, or Draisaitl. Larkin winning would be a massive upset.”

Will Alex Tuch win the 2025–2026 NHL Art Ross Trophy?

Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-20✓ CorrectBrier: 0.000

“Alex Tuch is a solid forward but not an elite scorer. He has never been close to leading the NHL in points and is extremely unlikely to win the Art Ross Trophy.”

Will Tage Thompson win the 2025–2026 NHL Art Ross Trophy?

Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-20✓ CorrectBrier: 0.006

“Tage Thompson is a talented scorer but historically hasn't been among the top 3-5 point leaders league-wide. Players like McDavid, Kucherov, and Draisaitl are perennial favorites. Thompson winning would be a significant upset.”

Will Clayton Keller win the 2025–2026 NHL Art Ross Trophy?

Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-20✓ CorrectBrier: 0.002

“Clayton Keller is a talented forward but has never been among the top 5 NHL scorers in a season. The Art Ross typically goes to elite producers like McDavid, Kucherov, or Draisaitl. Keller winning would be a major upset.”

Will Andrei Svechnikov win the 2025–2026 NHL Art Ross Trophy?

Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-20✓ CorrectBrier: 0.001

“Svechnikov is a talented forward but has never been close to leading the NHL in scoring. The Art Ross typically goes to elite producers like McDavid, Kucherov, or Draisaitl. Very unlikely Svechnikov wins it.”

Will Dylan Strome win the 2025–2026 NHL Art Ross Trophy?

Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-20✓ CorrectBrier: 0.002

“Dylan Strome is a solid player but not typically among the league's top scorers. The Art Ross Trophy usually goes to elite producers like McDavid, Kucherov, or Draisaitl. Strome winning would be a major surprise.”

Will Welsh Conservatives win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd election?

Apr 19 · Ends 2026-05-07✓ CorrectBrier: 0.014

“Welsh Conservatives have historically been third in Senedd elections. Despite UK-wide Labour struggles, Welsh Labour remains dominant. Reform UK splits right-wing vote. Plaid Cymru also competitive. Conservatives winning most seats would be unprecedented and unlikely.”

Will Jordan Kyrou win the 2025–2026 NHL Art Ross Trophy?

Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-20✓ CorrectBrier: 0.003

“Jordan Kyrou is a talented forward but has never been among the top 5 NHL scorers in a season. The Art Ross typically goes to elite producers like McDavid, Kucherov, or Draisaitl. Kyrou winning would be a major upset.”

Will Nazem Kadri win the 2025–2026 NHL Art Ross Trophy?

Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-20✓ CorrectBrier: 0.000

“Kadri is a solid player but has never been close to leading the NHL in scoring. He typically scores 50-75 points, far below Art Ross contenders like McDavid, Kucherov, etc.”

Will the New York Rangers win the 2025–2026 NHL Presidents' Trophy?

Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-20✓ CorrectBrier: 0.003

“The Rangers had a disappointing 2024-25 season and made significant roster changes. Winning the Presidents' Trophy requires being the best regular-season team, which is unlikely given their recent trajectory and strong competition across the NHL.”

Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2025–2026 NHL Presidents' Trophy?

Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-20✓ CorrectBrier: 0.000

“The Sabres have missed the playoffs for over a decade and lack the roster depth to finish with the best record in the NHL. Extremely unlikely they win the Presidents' Trophy.”

Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2025–2026 NHL Presidents' Trophy?

Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-20✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022

“The Wild have been competitive in 2025-26 but winning the Presidents' Trophy requires being the top team league-wide. With strong competition from teams like Colorado, Dallas, and others, Minnesota's chances are modest but non-trivial given their strong season.”

Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2025–2026 NHL Presidents' Trophy?

Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-20✓ CorrectBrier: 0.014

“Carolina is a strong team but winning the Presidents' Trophy requires being the best in the entire league. With 32 teams competing, even top contenders have roughly 10-15% odds. Carolina is competitive but not the clear favorite.”

Will the San Jose Sharks win the 2025–2026 NHL Presidents' Trophy?

Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-20✓ CorrectBrier: 0.000

“The Sharks have been one of the worst teams in the NHL in recent seasons and are in a rebuilding phase. Even with young talent like Celebrini, they are extremely unlikely to have the best record in the league by April 2026.”

Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2025–2026 NHL Presidents' Trophy?

Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-20✓ CorrectBrier: 0.003

“Tampa Bay Lightning are a competitive team but not typically among the top regular-season point leaders in recent years. With 30+ teams competing, any single team winning the Presidents' Trophy is unlikely without strong evidence they're leading the standings.”

Will the match end in a draw?

Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-25✓ CorrectBrier: 0.040

“Rugby matches between teams of differing strength (likely Russia vs Fiji) rarely end in draws. Draws in rugby are uncommon, typically under 5-10%, but without clear context I estimate ~20%.”

Will Jeremiyah Love be the second pick in the 2026 NFL draft?

Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-23✓ CorrectBrier: 0.004

“Jeremiyah Love is a talented Notre Dame RB, but RBs almost never go #2 overall in the modern NFL draft. QBs, edge rushers, and OTs dominate the top picks. Even elite RBs like Saquon Barkley went #2 in unusual circumstances. Love is unlikely to be picked this high.”

Will FC Dallas win on 2026-04-18?

Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-19✓ CorrectBrier: 0.144

“FC Dallas at home vs LA Galaxy. MLS home win rate ~45%, but Galaxy typically stronger side, adjusting Dallas win probability down to ~38%.”

Will Minnesota United FC vs. Portland Timbers end in a draw?

Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-19✓ CorrectBrier: 0.058

“MLS matches end in draws roughly 23-25% of the time historically. Without specific knowledge of this match result, using base rate for draw probability.”

Will FC Dallas vs. Los Angeles Galaxy end in a draw?

Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-19✗ WrongBrier: 0.563

“MLS matches end in draws roughly 23-27% of the time. Without specific match result info, I estimate based on historical draw rates for these teams. Draws are less common than decisive results.”

Will Los Angeles Galaxy win on 2026-04-18?

Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-19✓ CorrectBrier: 0.185

“Galaxy are a strong team but playing away at Dallas. Strong away teams win ~40-45% in MLS. Dallas has been weaker recently but home advantage matters.”

Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win the most seats in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?

Apr 19 · Ends 2026-04-19✗ WrongBrier: 0.422

“Bulgaria's fragmented political landscape makes it uncertain. GERB has historically been the strongest party, though PB (PP-DB coalition) has been competitive. Without clear polling dominance, GERB remains the slight favorite to win the most seats.”

Will Isack Hadjar finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Bahrain Grand Prix?

Apr 18 · Ends 2026-04-19✓ CorrectBrier: 0.040

“Hadjar is a rookie at Racing Bulls (VCARB) in 2026, a midfield team. Podiums for rookies in midfield cars are rare, typically requiring unusual race circumstances. Without specific race results available, base rate is low.”

Will Deportivo Toluca FC win on 2026-04-18?

Apr 18 · Ends 2026-04-19✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122

“Without specific match details, Toluca winning any single match is typically around 35-40% depending on opponent and venue. Default estimate for a Liga MX match with uncertain context.”

Will Minnesota United FC win on 2026-04-18?

Apr 18 · Ends 2026-04-19✗ WrongBrier: 0.360

“Minnesota United playing Portland. Home/away unknown but MLS matches are competitive. MNUFC has roughly 35-45% win probability in a typical match. Slight lean toward not winning given general parity.”

Will Real Salt Lake win on 2026-04-18?

Apr 18 · Ends 2026-04-19✗ WrongBrier: 0.422

“MLS matches are competitive; home win probability ~45%, away ~30%. Without knowing venue or opponent, base rate for any team winning a given match is roughly 35-40%. Slight lean toward NO given uncertainty.”

Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets in April 2026?

Apr 18 · Ends 2026-05-01✓ CorrectBrier: 0.003

Will Racing 92 win?

Apr 18 · Ends 2026-04-25✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203

“Racing 92 is a strong Top 14 club. Without specific opponent/match details, I give them a slight edge based on their general competitiveness, but uncertainty remains high.”

Will Oscar Piastri finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Bahrain Grand Prix?

Apr 18 · Ends 2026-04-19✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122

“Piastri is a strong driver with McLaren, but podium finishes at any single race are uncertain. With 2026 regulation changes adding unpredictability, ~35% reflects his competitive but not guaranteed podium chances.”

Will Arvid Lindblad finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Bahrain Grand Prix?

Apr 18 · Ends 2026-04-19✓ CorrectBrier: 0.014

“Lindblad is a rookie in 2026 with Racing Bulls (RB), a midfield team. Rookies on midfield teams rarely finish on the podium at the season opener without exceptional circumstances. Low probability.”

Will Oliver Bearman finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Bahrain Grand Prix?

Apr 18 · Ends 2026-04-19✓ CorrectBrier: 0.006

“Bearman is a rookie/junior driver at Haas for 2026. Haas is typically a midfield team, making podium finishes very unlikely. Even with 2026 regulation changes, a podium for Bearman at Bahrain is improbable.”

Will Carlos Sainz Jr. finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Bahrain Grand Prix?

Apr 18 · Ends 2026-04-19✓ CorrectBrier: 0.063

“Sainz moved to Williams for 2026. Under new 2026 regs, Williams is unlikely to be a consistent podium contender. While new regs create uncertainty, top teams (Red Bull, Ferrari, McLaren, Mercedes) are still favored. ~25% chance accounts for possible upset.”

Will Lewis Hamilton finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Bahrain Grand Prix?

Apr 18 · Ends 2026-04-19✓ CorrectBrier: 0.063

“Hamilton moved to Ferrari for 2026 with major reg changes. Adapting to new car/team is uncertain. Historically ~15-30% chance any top driver podiums at a specific race. New regs add volatility but Ferrari should be competitive.”

Will Nico Hulkenberg finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Bahrain Grand Prix?

Apr 18 · Ends 2026-04-19✓ CorrectBrier: 0.014

“Hulkenberg has historically struggled to achieve podiums in F1 (famously holding the record for most starts without one). Even with Sauber/Audi in 2026's new regs, a podium at Bahrain is unlikely but not impossible given regulation changes.”

Will Yokohama F·Marinos vs. Kawasaki Frontale end in a draw?

Apr 18 · Ends 2026-04-18✓ CorrectBrier: 0.063

“Draws occur in roughly 25% of J1 League matches. Yokohama vs Kawasaki is a derby with competitive teams, but draws are still less likely than a decisive result.”

Will MFK Karviná win on 2026-04-18?

Apr 18 · Ends 2026-04-18✗ WrongBrier: 0.563

“MFK Karviná is typically a lower-table Czech First League team. Without specific opponent info, their base win rate in any given match is around 25-30%. Defaulting to the lower end given their usual standing.”

Will 1. FC Slovácko win on 2026-04-18?

Apr 17 · Ends 2026-04-18✓ CorrectBrier: 0.090

“Slovácko is typically a mid-to-lower table Czech First League team. Without knowing the opponent or venue, a baseline win probability around 30% is reasonable for an average match.”

Will FC Viktoria Plzeň vs. FK Pardubice end in a draw?

Apr 17 · Ends 2026-04-18✓ CorrectBrier: 0.058

“Viktoria Plzeň are typically strong at home and a top Czech league side, while Pardubice are mid-to-lower table. Home wins are most likely; draws occur ~25% of the time in such matchups.”

Will FC Hradec Králové vs. SK Slavia Praha end in a draw?

Apr 17 · Ends 2026-04-18✓ CorrectBrier: 0.063

“Slavia Praha are typically strong favorites away to Hradec Králové. Draws occur in roughly 20-25% of such matches, with Slavia more likely to win outright.”

Will AD Cali win on 2026-04-17?

Apr 17 · Ends 2026-04-18✓ CorrectBrier: 0.160

“AD Cali (Asociación Deportivo Cali) has had inconsistent form in recent Colombian league seasons. Without specific match details, home/away status, or opponent info, a win probability around 40% reflects typical mid-table team odds.”

Will Atlético San Luis win on 2026-04-17?

Apr 17 · Ends 2026-04-18✓ CorrectBrier: 0.090

“Atlético San Luis is typically a mid-table Liga MX team. Without knowing the opponent or venue, home win rates ~40-45%, away ~20-25%. The category suggests vs Pumas; San Luis winning any single match is below 50% probability.”

Will Vancouver Whitecaps FC vs. Sporting Kansas City end in a draw?

Apr 17 · Ends 2026-04-18✓ CorrectBrier: 0.063

“MLS matches end in draws roughly 23-27% of the time. Vancouver at home likely has an edge, but without specific 2026 form data, I'll estimate near the historical MLS draw rate of ~25%.”

Will Vancouver Whitecaps FC win on 2026-04-17?

Apr 17 · Ends 2026-04-18✗ WrongBrier: 0.360

“Vancouver Whitecaps vs SKC on Apr 17, 2026. Home advantage helps but MLS matches are competitive. Whitecaps historically mid-table; win probability around 40% at home against a comparable opponent.”

Will SC Recife win on 2026-04-18?

Apr 17 · Ends 2026-04-18✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122

“SC Recife in Série B typically wins around 35-40% of home matches and less away. Without knowing opponent or venue, base rate for any single match win is roughly 35%.”

Will Shanghai Shenhua FC win on 2026-04-18?

Apr 17 · Ends 2026-04-18✗ WrongBrier: 0.302

“Shanghai Shenhua are a strong CSL team, but without knowing the specific opponent or venue, a win probability around 45% accounts for draw and loss possibilities in a typical league match.”

Will Microsoft have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?

Apr 17 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.003

“Microsoft doesn't develop frontier models directly—they rely on OpenAI. On Chatbot Arena with Style Control, top spots are typically held by OpenAI, Anthropic, or Google. Microsoft's own models (e.g., Phi) rarely reach #1.”

Will FK Teplice win on 2026-04-18?

Apr 17 · Ends 2026-04-18✓ CorrectBrier: 0.063

“FK Teplice are typically a mid-to-lower table Czech First League team. Playing away at Zlín (FCZ), an away win probability is around 25%. Without specific current form data, this reflects historical base rates for such matchups.”

Will Club Necaxa vs. Tigres de la UANL end in a draw?

Apr 17 · Ends 2026-04-18✗ WrongBrier: 0.548

“Draws occur in roughly 25% of Liga MX matches. Tigres are typically stronger than Necaxa, making a decisive result more likely, but Necaxa at home could keep it close. Still, a draw is not the most probable outcome.”

Will FK Pardubice win on 2026-04-18?

Apr 17 · Ends 2026-04-18✗ WrongBrier: 0.490

“FK Pardubice are typically a mid-to-lower table Czech First League team. Without knowing the opponent or venue, a win probability around 30% reflects their general strength level in the league.”

Will Club Necaxa win on 2026-04-17?

Apr 17 · Ends 2026-04-18✓ CorrectBrier: 0.078

“Necaxa vs Tigres: Tigres is historically a stronger team in Liga MX. Necaxa typically struggles against top sides, especially away. Home/away context unknown but Tigres favored. Win probability for Necaxa around 28%.”

Will Sporting Kansas City win on 2026-04-17?

Apr 17 · Ends 2026-04-18✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122

“Sporting KC has been a mid-to-lower table MLS team recently. Without knowing the opponent or venue, a baseline MLS win probability is around 35-40%. Given their recent form trends, I estimate ~35%.”

Will the Bitcoin realized volatility index hit 90 by April 30?

Apr 17 · Ends 2026-05-01✗ WrongBrier: 0.302

Will FC Slovan Liberec vs. FK Mladá Boleslav end in a draw?

Apr 17 · Ends 2026-04-18✗ WrongBrier: 0.548

“Draws in Czech First League occur roughly 22-28% of the time. Without strong indicators favoring a draw specifically in this matchup, I estimate around 26% probability.”

Will Kashima Antlers vs. Urawa Red Diamonds end in a draw?

Apr 17 · Ends 2026-04-18✓ CorrectBrier: 0.068

“J1 League matches end in draws roughly 23-28% of the time. Kashima at home are typically strong, slightly reducing draw likelihood, but both are competitive teams. Estimating ~26% draw probability.”

Will DeepSeek have the second best AI model at the end of April 2026?

Apr 17 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.040

“DeepSeek has strong models but competition from Google, Anthropic, Meta, and OpenAI is fierce. Being exactly #2 is hard to predict; many contenders make any single company's chance of holding that exact rank relatively low.”

Will FC Baník Ostrava vs. Bohemians Praha 1905 end in a draw?

Apr 17 · Ends 2026-04-18✓ CorrectBrier: 0.068

“Draws occur in roughly 25% of Czech First League matches. Baník Ostrava at home are typically favored over Bohemians, making a draw somewhat less likely than average but still plausible.”

Will Urawa Red Diamonds win on 2026-04-18?

Apr 17 · Ends 2026-04-18✓ CorrectBrier: 0.160

“Urawa Red Diamonds are a strong J1 League team, but winning any single match is uncertain. Home/away status unknown. Typical win probability for a competitive J1 match is around 35-45%. Estimating 0.40.”

Will the match end in a draw?

Apr 17 · Ends 2026-04-18✓ CorrectBrier: 0.001

“Draws are extremely rare in Super Rugby Pacific, occurring in roughly 1-3% of matches. The scoring system makes exact ties uncommon.”

Will FK Jablonec win on 2026-04-18?

Apr 17 · Ends 2026-04-18✓ CorrectBrier: 0.090

“FK Jablonec is a mid-table Czech First League team. Without knowing the specific opponent or venue, a baseline win probability for such a team in a league match is around 30%. No strong reason to deviate significantly.”

Will FC Zlín vs. FK Teplice end in a draw?

Apr 17 · Ends 2026-04-18✓ CorrectBrier: 0.068

“Draws occur in roughly 25% of Czech league matches. Without strong specific indicators favoring a draw, the base rate suggests it's more likely one team wins.”

Will FC Zlín win on 2026-04-18?

Apr 17 · Ends 2026-04-18✗ WrongBrier: 0.422

“FC Zlín has been a lower-table Czech league team in recent seasons. Without specific form data, a home win probability around 35% is reasonable for a mid-to-lower tier side in a typical league match.”

Will FC Hradec Králové win on 2026-04-18?

Apr 17 · Ends 2026-04-18✗ WrongBrier: 0.449

“FC Hradec Králové is typically a mid-to-lower table Czech First League team. Without specific opponent info, home/away advantage is unclear. Base rate for any team winning a single match is roughly 30-35%.”

Will FC Slovan Liberec win on 2026-04-18?

Apr 17 · Ends 2026-04-18✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122

“FC Slovan Liberec has been a mid-table Czech First League team in recent seasons. Without specific form data, a home win probability around 35% is reasonable given typical match odds for such teams.”

Will Hurricanes win?

Apr 17 · Ends 2026-04-18✓ CorrectBrier: 0.185

“Carolina Hurricanes have been consistently stronger than St. Louis Blues in recent seasons. In a single game, they'd be moderate favorites, though NHL games have high variance.”

Will SK Sigma Olomouc win on 2026-04-18?

Apr 17 · Ends 2026-04-18✗ WrongBrier: 0.422

“SK Sigma Olomouc is typically a mid-table Czech First League team. Without specific form data, home/away status, or opponent details, winning any single match is roughly 35-40% for such a team. Slight lean toward NO.”

Will Boyacá Chicó FC win on 2026-04-17?

Apr 17 · Ends 2026-04-18✗ WrongBrier: 0.422

“Boyacá Chicó FC is typically a mid-to-lower table Colombian team. Without specific opponent info, home/away status, or current form, a win probability around 35% reflects their general competitive level in Colombian football.”

Will Bohemians Praha 1905 win on 2026-04-18?

Apr 17 · Ends 2026-04-18✗ WrongBrier: 0.490

“Bohemians Praha 1905 are typically a mid-to-lower table Czech First League team. Without knowing the specific opponent, their general win rate in any given match is around 25-35%. Defaulting to ~30%.”

Will Atlético San Luis vs. Pumas de la UNAM end in a draw?

Apr 17 · Ends 2026-04-18✓ CorrectBrier: 0.068

“Draws in Liga MX occur roughly 23-28% of the time. Without specific form data for this future match, I estimate near the base rate for a draw.”

Will SK Slavia Praha win on 2026-04-18?

Apr 17 · Ends 2026-04-18✗ WrongBrier: 0.302

“Slavia Praha are typically one of the strongest teams in the Czech First League, often winning ~60% of their matches. Away or neutral factors slightly reduce this, but they remain favorites against most opponents.”

Will AC Sparta Praha win on 2026-04-18?

Apr 17 · Ends 2026-04-18✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203

“Sparta Praha are typically one of the strongest teams in the Czech First League. Without knowing the exact opponent, their general win rate at home or away in league matches is around 50-60%. Estimating ~55% probability of a win.”

Will Kawasaki Frontale win on 2026-04-18?

Apr 17 · Ends 2026-04-18✗ WrongBrier: 0.360

“Kawasaki Frontale have been inconsistent in recent J1 League seasons. Without knowing the specific opponent or venue, a single match win probability for a mid-table team is typically around 35-45%. Slight lean below 50%.”

Will the match end in a draw?

Apr 17 · Ends 2026-04-18✓ CorrectBrier: 0.063

“Draws in football/soccer typically occur ~25% of the time. Without specific info on the teams or league context, I use a base rate estimate for a draw outcome.”

Will Kyōto Sanga FC win on 2026-04-18?

Apr 17 · Ends 2026-04-18✓ CorrectBrier: 0.090

“Kyōto Sanga FC have historically been a lower-mid table J1 League team. Without specific opponent info, a win probability around 30% reflects typical home/away match odds for a team of their caliber.”

Will V-Varen Nagasaki win on 2026-04-18?

Apr 17 · Ends 2026-04-18✓ CorrectBrier: 0.090

“V-Varen Nagasaki are typically a lower-mid table J-League team. Without knowing the specific opponent or venue, a win probability around 30% reflects that most teams win roughly 30-35% of matches, and Nagasaki tends to be on the weaker side.”

Will Crusaders win?

Apr 17 · Ends 2026-04-18✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203

“Crusaders away vs Reds in Super Rugby Pacific. Crusaders have strong pedigree but have been less dominant recently. Away matches in Brisbane are tough. Slight edge to Reds at home.”

Will Moana Pasifika win?

Apr 17 · Ends 2026-04-18✗ WrongBrier: 0.302

Will Mazatlán FC win on 2026-04-17?

Apr 17 · Ends 2026-04-18✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122

“Mazatlán FC has generally been a mid-to-lower table team in Liga MX. Without specific match details, a win probability around 35% reflects typical home/away odds for such a team on any given matchday.”

Will Querétaro FC win on 2026-04-17?

Apr 17 · Ends 2026-04-18✓ CorrectBrier: 0.063

“Querétaro FC has historically been a mid-to-lower table team in Liga MX. Without knowing the specific opponent or venue, but given their general form and that any single match win probability for a weaker team is typically below 50%, I estimate around 25%.”

Will SK Sigma Olomouc vs. 1. FC Slovácko end in a draw?

Apr 17 · Ends 2026-04-18✓ CorrectBrier: 0.078

“Draws in Czech First League occur roughly 25-30% of the time. Without strong indicators favoring a draw specifically, the base rate suggests it's more likely one team wins.”

Will Reds win?

Apr 17 · Ends 2026-04-18✓ CorrectBrier: 0.230

“Reds likely at home vs Crusaders who have declined in recent seasons. Home advantage gives Reds a slight edge, but match is close to a coin flip given both teams' recent form.”

Will FK Dukla Praha win on 2026-04-18?

Apr 17 · Ends 2026-04-18✓ CorrectBrier: 0.160

“FK Dukla Praha is typically a mid-to-lower table team in the Czech First League. Without knowing the specific opponent or form, a win probability around 40% reflects that home wins are common but not guaranteed, and Dukla is not among the strongest sides.”

Will JEF United Ichihara Chiba win on 2026-04-18?

Apr 17 · Ends 2026-04-18✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122

“JEF United Ichihara Chiba are typically a J2 League team. Without specific match details, home/away status, or opponent info, a win probability around 35% reflects that any single match win is uncertain, especially for a mid-tier J2 side.”

Will Sanfrecce Hiroshima win on 2026-04-18?

Apr 17 · Ends 2026-04-18✓ CorrectBrier: 0.250

“Sanfrecce Hiroshima are a strong J1 League team, likely playing at home or against a mid-table opponent. Without knowing the exact opponent or venue, a ~50% win probability reflects their general strength with uncertainty.”

Will the match end in a draw?

Apr 17 · Ends 2026-04-18✓ CorrectBrier: 0.063

“Most football/soccer matches do not end in draws. Historically, draws occur roughly 25% of the time in league matches. Without specific team info, using base rate.”

Will the match end in a draw?

Apr 17 · Ends 2026-04-18✓ CorrectBrier: 0.002

“Draws in rugby are very rare, occurring roughly 2-5% of the time. Even in competitive Pacific Island matchups, one team almost always wins.”

Will Pumas de la UNAM win on 2026-04-17?

Apr 17 · Ends 2026-04-18✗ WrongBrier: 0.422

“Without specific match details, Pumas' historical win rate in Liga MX is around 35-40%. Any single match win probability is typically below 50% unless strong home advantage and form data suggest otherwise.”

Will Blues win?

Apr 17 · Ends 2026-04-18✗ WrongBrier: 0.270

“Blues have been a strong Super Rugby team in recent years. Hurricanes vs Blues matches are typically competitive, giving Blues a slight edge based on recent form trends.”

Will Chiefs win?

Apr 17 · Ends 2026-04-18✓ CorrectBrier: 0.048

“Super Rugby Pacific: Chiefs are historically much stronger than Moana Pasifika. Chiefs typically favored heavily in this matchup based on squad quality and track record.”

Will FK Mladá Boleslav win on 2026-04-18?

Apr 17 · Ends 2026-04-18✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122

“FK Mladá Boleslav is a mid-table Czech First League team. Without knowing the specific opponent or venue, a win probability around 35% reflects typical match odds for such a team on any given matchday.”

Will FC Baník Ostrava win on 2026-04-18?

Apr 17 · Ends 2026-04-18✓ CorrectBrier: 0.160

“Without specific match details, Baník Ostrava is a mid-table Czech First League team. Home win probability ~45%, away ~30%. Averaging around 40% win probability for a generic league match.”

Will FC Viktoria Plzeň win on 2026-04-18?

Apr 17 · Ends 2026-04-18✗ WrongBrier: 0.250

“Viktoria Plzeň is typically a strong Czech league team, but without knowing the specific opponent or context for this match, and given home/away uncertainty, I estimate roughly a coin flip slightly favoring them. Setting at 0.50.”

Will Yokohama F·Marinos win on 2026-04-18?

Apr 17 · Ends 2026-04-18✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203

“Yokohama F·Marinos vs Kawasaki Frontale is a competitive J1 League match. Marinos are historically strong but winning any single match is uncertain. Home advantage helps but not enough to push above 50%.”

Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-04-18?

Apr 17 · Ends 2026-04-18✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203

“Bodø/Glimt are typically one of the strongest teams in Norwegian football, often favored in most matches. Without knowing the exact opponent or venue, their general win rate in Eliteserien suggests a moderate-to-good chance of winning.”

Will AC Sparta Praha vs. FK Jablonec end in a draw?

Apr 17 · Ends 2026-04-18✓ CorrectBrier: 0.048

“Sparta Praha are historically strong at home and typically favored against Jablonec. Draws in such matchups occur roughly 20-25% of the time in the Czech First League.”

Will Wuhan San Zhen FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC end in a draw?

Apr 17 · Ends 2026-04-17✓ CorrectBrier: 0.078

“Draws in Chinese football leagues occur roughly 25-30% of the time. Without specific form data for this future match, I estimate near the base rate for a draw.”

Will Qingdao Hainiu FC vs. Qingdao Xihaian FC end in a draw?

Apr 17 · Ends 2026-04-17✗ WrongBrier: 0.518

“Draws in Chinese football derbies occur roughly 25-30% of the time. Without specific form data, I estimate a draw probability near the base rate for such matches.”

Will China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 3.5 and 4.0%?

Apr 16 · Ends 2026-04-17✓ CorrectBrier: 0.063

“China's Q1 2025 GDP growth was ~5.4%. With US tariffs escalating in early 2026, growth likely slows but 3.5-4.0% is a specific narrow band. Consensus estimates vary widely; stimulus may keep growth above 4% or tariffs could push it below 3.5%. Moderate probability for this exact ”

Will Aston Villa reach the UEFA Europa League semifinal?

Apr 16 · Ends 2026-05-08✗ WrongBrier: 0.608

Will Newcastle United Jets FC win on 2026-04-17?

Apr 16 · Ends 2026-04-17✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122

“Newcastle Jets are typically a mid-to-lower table A-League team. Without specific opponent info, base rate for any team winning a given match is around 33-40%. Slight lean toward NO given Jets' historical inconsistency.”

Will Zhejiang Zhiye FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC end in a draw?

Apr 16 · Ends 2026-04-17✗ WrongBrier: 0.548

“Draws occur in roughly 25% of Chinese Super League matches. Beijing Guoan is typically stronger, making a decisive result more likely than a draw.”

Will Samira Sagr be in the top 3 of Big Brother Brasil 26?

Apr 16 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.063

“BBB26 is nearing its finale. Without strong evidence Samira Sagr is a frontrunner or fan favorite likely to reach the final 3, the base rate for any individual contestant making top 3 is low. Estimating ~25%.”

Will Tōkyō Verdy vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba end in a draw?

Apr 16 · Ends 2026-04-18✓ CorrectBrier: 0.068

“Draws in J-League matches occur roughly 25% of the time. Without specific form data for this 2026 fixture, I use the base rate for draws in Japanese football, slightly adjusted for typical home/away dynamics.”

Will Freiburg reach the UEFA Europa League semifinal?

Apr 16 · Ends 2026-05-08✗ WrongBrier: 0.774

“Freiburg is a solid Bundesliga side but not typically a deep European run team. Reaching the EL semifinal would be a significant overachievement given their European pedigree and the quality of opposition in later rounds.”

Will Celta reach the UEFA Europa League semifinal?

Apr 16 · Ends 2026-05-08✓ CorrectBrier: 0.040

Will Sonny Styles be the second pick in the 2026 NFL draft?

Apr 16 · Ends 2026-04-23✓ CorrectBrier: 0.004

“Sonny Styles is a talented safety/LB from Ohio State, but the #2 overall pick typically goes to a QB, edge rusher, or OT. Safeties/LBs rarely go that high. Multiple other prospects are more likely to be picked #2 in 2026.”

Will Cade Klubnik be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft?

Apr 16 · Ends 2026-04-25✓ CorrectBrier: 0.176

“Klubnik had a strong 2025 season at Clemson but faces competition from other top QB prospects like Shedeur Sanders and Carson Beck. Mock drafts show him as a top candidate but not the consensus #1 pick, with several other players also in contention.”

Will the match end in a draw?

Apr 16 · Ends 2026-04-17✓ CorrectBrier: 0.068

“Draws occur in roughly 25-28% of football matches across most leagues. Without specific match information, using base rate for draw probability.”

Will Meta have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?

Apr 16 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.040

Will Yunnan Yukun FC win on 2026-04-17?

Apr 16 · Ends 2026-04-17✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122

“Yunnan Yukun FC is a lower-tier Chinese football club. Without specific match details or opponent info, base rates for any team winning a given match are typically around 35-45%. Given limited info, I estimate slightly below average.”

KRG declares independence from Iraq by April 30?

Apr 16 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.000

“KRG's 2017 independence referendum was rejected by Iraq and the international community, leading to severe consequences. Since then, KRG has not moved toward a unilateral declaration. No credible signals suggest this will change by April 30, 2026.”

Will Real Madrid reach the UEFA Champions League final?

Apr 16 · Ends 2026-05-07✓ CorrectBrier: 0.090

“Real Madrid are historically dominant in UCL but face strong competition. After a disappointing 2024-25 exit in R16, their path is uncertain. ~30% reflects their elite pedigree tempered by competitive field and recent form concerns.”

Will Sporting CP reach the UEFA Champions League final?

Apr 16 · Ends 2026-05-07✓ CorrectBrier: 0.003

“Sporting CP has never reached a Champions League final. Even in strong domestic form, Portuguese clubs outside Porto/Benfica rarely reach semis. Base rate for any non-elite club reaching the final is very low.”

Will Chongqing Tonglianglong FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC end in a draw?

Apr 16 · Ends 2026-04-17✓ CorrectBrier: 0.078

“Draws in Chinese lower-league football occur roughly 25-30% of the time. Without specific form data favoring a draw, the most likely outcome is a decisive result for one side.”

Will AD Pasto win on 2026-04-17?

Apr 15 · Ends 2026-04-17✗ WrongBrier: 0.422

“AD Pasto is a mid-to-lower table Colombian league team. Without knowing the specific opponent or venue, their base win rate in any given match is typically around 30-40%. Defaulting to ~35% probability of a win.”

Will Jaguares de Córdoba FC vs. AD Pasto end in a draw?

Apr 15 · Ends 2026-04-17✓ CorrectBrier: 0.078

“Draws occur in roughly 25-30% of Colombian league matches. Jaguares at home vs Pasto is a relatively even matchup, but draws are still less likely than a decisive result.”

Will Jaguares de Córdoba FC win on 2026-04-17?

Apr 15 · Ends 2026-04-17✓ CorrectBrier: 0.090

“Jaguares de Córdoba are typically a lower-mid table team in Colombian football. Without specific match details, their win probability in any given match is around 30%, reflecting home/away uncertainty and their general competitive level.”

Will América FC win on 2026-04-18?

Apr 15 · Ends 2026-04-18✓ CorrectBrier: 0.160

“América FC vs Recife in Brasileirão Série B. Home advantage helps but Série B is competitive. Without specific 2026 form data, a home win probability around 40% is reasonable for a mid-table Série B match.”

Will Qingdao Xihaian FC win on 2026-04-17?

Apr 15 · Ends 2026-04-17✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122

“Qingdao Xihaian FC is a lower-tier Chinese football club. Without specific match details, opponent info, or recent form data, a win on any given match day is uncertain. Base rate for a win in a typical league match is around 33-40%, slightly below 50%.”

Will Solange Couto be in the top 3 of Big Brother Brasil 26?

Apr 15 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.063

“BBB26 is nearing its finale. Solange Couto is a known actress but reaching top 3 depends on public voting dynamics. Without strong evidence she's a frontrunner, the probability is moderate-low given multiple contestants competing.”

Will Atlético Madrid reach the UEFA Champions League final?

Apr 15 · Ends 2026-05-07✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022

Will Yunnan Yukun FC vs. Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC end in a draw?

Apr 15 · Ends 2026-04-17✓ CorrectBrier: 0.078

“Draws in Chinese football leagues typically occur around 25-30% of the time. Without specific form data for these teams, I estimate roughly 28% chance of a draw.”

Will Chennaiyin FC vs. SC Delhi end in a draw?

Apr 15 · Ends 2026-04-17✓ CorrectBrier: 0.063

“Draws in Indian football (ISL) occur roughly 20-25% of the time. Without specific form data suggesting a draw is more likely, I estimate around 25% probability.”

Will Odisha FC vs. Mohammedan SC end in a draw?

Apr 15 · Ends 2026-04-17✗ WrongBrier: 0.563

“Draws occur in roughly 20-28% of Indian football league matches. Odisha FC typically has a home advantage, making a decisive result more likely than a draw.”

Will Google reach $400 in April?

Apr 15 · Ends 2026-05-01✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022

“GOOGL was trading around $155-165 in early 2025. Reaching $400 by April 2026 would require roughly a 150%+ gain in ~1 year, which is extremely unlikely for a mega-cap stock absent extraordinary circumstances like a stock split adjustment.”

Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index hit 80 by April 30?

Apr 15 · Ends 2026-05-01✗ WrongBrier: 0.270

Will Melbourne Victory FC win on 2026-04-17?

Apr 15 · Ends 2026-04-17✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122

“Melbourne Victory's win probability depends on opponent and form. Without specific match details, a typical A-League match win probability for any team is around 35-40%. Defaulting to ~35% as wins are not the most likely single outcome.”

Will Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC win on 2026-04-17?

Apr 15 · Ends 2026-04-17✓ CorrectBrier: 0.090

“Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC has generally been a mid-to-lower table team in the Chinese Super League. Without specific opponent info, a win probability around 30% reflects typical match odds for such a team.”

Will Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC win on 2026-04-17?

Apr 15 · Ends 2026-04-17✗ WrongBrier: 0.490

“Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC is typically a mid-to-lower table team in the Chinese Super League. Without specific opponent info, a win probability around 30% reflects their general strength and home/away uncertainty.”

Will Shandong Taishan FC vs. Shanghai Haigang FC end in a draw?

Apr 15 · Ends 2026-04-17✗ WrongBrier: 0.518

“Draws in Chinese Super League occur roughly 25-30% of the time. Both Shandong Taishan and Shanghai Haigang are strong teams, but home advantage for Shandong slightly reduces draw likelihood. Estimating ~28%.”

Will SC Delhi win on 2026-04-17?

Apr 15 · Ends 2026-04-17✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203

“Without specific information about SC Delhi's upcoming match on 2026-04-17, including opponent, form, and context, I estimate a slightly below 50% chance of winning, reflecting typical uncertainty in competitive sports.”

Will Sønderjyske Fodbold win on 2026-04-17?

Apr 15 · Ends 2026-04-17✓ CorrectBrier: 0.063

“Sønderjyske are typically a lower-tier Danish club. Without specific match details, away/home status, or current form, their win probability in any given match is modest, likely around 25%.”

Will Beijing Guoan FC win on 2026-04-17?

Apr 15 · Ends 2026-04-17✓ CorrectBrier: 0.160

“Without specific match details, Beijing Guoan's win probability depends on opponent and venue. CSL home win rates ~45%, away ~30%. With uncertainty about opponent and venue, estimating ~40% win probability.”

Will Brøndby IF vs. Sønderjyske Fodbold end in a draw?

Apr 15 · Ends 2026-04-17✓ CorrectBrier: 0.058

“Brøndby IF are typically strong at home in the Danish Superliga and favored to win. Draws occur in roughly 20-25% of such matches, but Brøndby's home advantage makes a draw less likely.”

Will Chengdu Rongcheng FC win on 2026-04-17?

Apr 15 · Ends 2026-04-17✗ WrongBrier: 0.422

“Without specific match details (opponent, venue, form), a generic estimate for a Chinese Super League team winning any given match is around 35%. Home matches would be higher, but lacking context I lean slightly below 50%.”

Will Chongqing Tonglianglong FC win on 2026-04-17?

Apr 15 · Ends 2026-04-17✗ WrongBrier: 0.422

“Chongqing Tonglianglong FC is a lower-tier Chinese football club. Without specific match details or opponent info, baseline win probability for any single match is around 33-40%. Slight lean toward NO given uncertainty.”

Will Shanghai Haigang FC win on 2026-04-17?

Apr 15 · Ends 2026-04-17✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203

“Shanghai Haigang (Port FC) are typically a strong CSL side, but without knowing the specific opponent or venue for this match, winning any single game is uncertain. Top teams win roughly 40-50% of matches in the CSL.”

Will Wuhan San Zhen FC win on 2026-04-17?

Apr 15 · Ends 2026-04-17✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122

“Wuhan San Zhen FC is a mid-tier Chinese league team. Without specific opponent info, base rate for any team winning a given match is roughly 30-40%. Slight lean toward NO given uncertainty.”

Will Arch Manning be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft?

Apr 15 · Ends 2026-04-25✓ CorrectBrier: 0.078

“Arch Manning is talented but likely needs to declare early and be the consensus top QB. Other prospects (e.g., Shedeur Sanders, Carson Beck, or elite non-QBs) may go first. Manning may also return to Texas for another year. Uncertainty is high but he's not the favorite.”

Will Google reach $375 in April?

Apr 14 · Ends 2026-05-01✗ WrongBrier: 0.422

“Google (GOOGL) would need to reach $375 by end of April 2026. Based on recent trading levels and market conditions, this target appears ambitious but not impossible. Without confirmed current price data, I estimate moderate-low probability given typical monthly price ranges.”

Will Amazon reach $260 in April?

Apr 14 · Ends 2026-05-01✗ WrongBrier: 0.723

“As of mid-April 2026, AMZN would need to reach $260. Given recent market volatility and tariff concerns weighing on tech stocks, AMZN reaching $260 by end of April seems unlikely but not impossible if there's a strong rally.”

Will the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $3.50 (HIGH) by April 30, 2026?

Apr 14 · Ends 2026-04-30✗ WrongBrier: 0.672

Will the Ethereum Volatility Index hit 100 by April 30?

Apr 14 · Ends 2026-05-01✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022

“ETH vol index hitting 100 requires a major stress event. With ~16 days left, base rate for such a spike in any short window is low (~15%), though crypto vol can spike suddenly.”

Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index hit 70 by April 30?

Apr 14 · Ends 2026-05-01✗ WrongBrier: 0.302

Will the Ethereum Volatility Index hit 85 by April 30?

Apr 14 · Ends 2026-05-01✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122

Will the Ethereum Volatility Index dip to 60 by April 30?

Apr 14 · Ends 2026-05-01✓ CorrectBrier: 0.230

Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index dip to 30 by April 30?

Apr 14 · Ends 2026-05-01✓ CorrectBrier: 0.090

Will the match end in a draw?

Apr 14 · Ends 2026-04-24✓ CorrectBrier: 0.063

“In most football/soccer leagues, draws occur roughly 25% of the time. Without specific team info for this match, I use the base rate for draws.”

Will the Ethereum Volatility Index hit 110 by April 30?

Apr 14 · Ends 2026-05-01✓ CorrectBrier: 0.040

“ETH vol index hitting 110 requires a significant spike, likely from a major market event. In any 16-day window, base rate for such spikes is ~15-25%. Without evidence of current elevated stress, estimating 20%.”

Tech Layoffs Up or Down in Q1, 20​26?

Apr 14 · Ends 2026-05-05✓ CorrectBrier: 0.144

Pakistan military action against Afghanistan by April 15?

Apr 14 · Ends 2026-04-15✓ CorrectBrier: 0.005

“Pakistan has conducted cross-border strikes (e.g., airstrikes on TTP targets in Afghanistan) but a full-scale military action against Afghanistan as a state is extremely unlikely given nuclear dynamics, international pressure, and diplomatic channels. Limited counterterrorism str”

Will Zhejiang Zhiye FC win on 2026-04-17?

Apr 14 · Ends 2026-04-17✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122

“Without specific match details or opponent info, a generic win probability for a mid-tier Chinese football club in any given match is around 35%. Home/away and opponent strength unknown, so defaulting to slightly below average.”

Will the Philadelphia Flyers make the NHL Playoffs?

Apr 14 · Ends 2026-04-16✗ WrongBrier: 0.422

“The Flyers have been rebuilding and were not projected as strong playoff contenders for 2025-26. With only 2 days left before resolution, they likely fell short of a playoff spot.”

Will Microsoft have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?

Apr 14 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.003

“Microsoft relies on OpenAI for frontier models rather than developing its own. OpenAI, Google, Anthropic, or Meta are far more likely to have the top model. Microsoft's own models (e.g., Phi) are not frontier-competitive.”

Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?

Apr 14 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.006

“Meta's open-source Llama models are strong but typically trail frontier closed models from OpenAI, Google, and Anthropic on key benchmarks. As of mid-April 2026, it's unlikely Meta holds the undisputed best AI model.”

Will Shandong Taishan FC win on 2026-04-17?

Apr 14 · Ends 2026-04-17✓ CorrectBrier: 0.160

“Shandong Taishan is a strong CSL team but winning any single match is uncertain. Home win probability ~45-50%, away ~30-35%. Without knowing opponent or venue, baseline ~40%.”

Will the Washington Capitals make the NHL Playoffs?

Apr 14 · Ends 2026-04-16✗ WrongBrier: 0.846

“The Capitals have been competitive in recent seasons and with the resolution date just 2 days away, the NHL regular season is essentially over. Based on 2025-26 standings, the Capitals are very likely in a playoff position.”

Will Alan Bond win the NJ-11 special election?

Apr 14 · Ends 2026-04-16✓ CorrectBrier: 0.001

“NJ-11 is a competitive suburban district. The special election likely features major party candidates with stronger name recognition and funding. Alan Bond is not a prominent candidate in this race and is very unlikely to win.”

Will Qingdao Hainiu FC win on 2026-04-17?

Apr 14 · Ends 2026-04-17✓ CorrectBrier: 0.109

“Qingdao Hainiu FC is a mid-tier Chinese football club. Without specific match details or opponent info, a win probability around 33% reflects typical home/away match odds for an average team in the Chinese league system.”

Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets in April 2026?

Apr 13 · Ends 2026-05-01✓ CorrectBrier: 0.002

Will the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $4.00 (HIGH) by April 30, 2026?

Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.010

Will Lillestrøm SK win on 2026-04-15?

Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-15✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122

“Without knowing the specific opponent or venue, Lillestrøm SK's base win probability in a typical Eliteserien match is around 35-40%. Given uncertainty about the matchup, I estimate ~0.35.”

Will Alibaba have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?

Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.032

Will Amazon have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?

Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.004

“Amazon's Nova models have not been competitive with top-tier models from OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, Meta, or xAI. Amazon lacks a frontier model that could rank 3rd on major benchmarks like Chatbot Arena or LMSYS by end of April 2026.”

Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of April 2026?

Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.090

“The AI model landscape is highly competitive. OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, and Meta are all strong contenders. Google often ranks high but 'second best' is a specific slot. OpenAI and Anthropic frequently compete for top spots, making it uncertain Google lands exactly second.”

Will Moonshot have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?

Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.001

“Moonshot (Kimi) is a Chinese AI startup that, while promising, is unlikely to have the third best AI model globally by April 2026. Top spots are dominated by OpenAI, Google, Anthropic, Meta, xAI, and DeepSeek, all with far greater resources.”

Will Anthropic have the #3 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?

Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-30✗ WrongBrier: 0.563

“Anthropic typically competes for top spots on Chatbot Arena. With OpenAI, Google, and others releasing strong models, Anthropic could land at #3 but it's not the most likely single outcome. Multiple competitors make any specific rank uncertain.”

Will Anthropic have the #2 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?

Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-30✗ WrongBrier: 0.422

“Anthropic has been competitive but OpenAI and Google are strong contenders for #2. With Style Control On, rankings can shift. Anthropic holding #2 is plausible but not most likely given fierce competition from multiple players.”

Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of April 2026?

Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-30✗ WrongBrier: 0.490

“Anthropic competes with OpenAI, Google, and Meta. While Claude models are strong, determining 'second best' is subjective. OpenAI and Google often lead benchmarks, with Anthropic sometimes 3rd. The competitive landscape makes it uncertain Anthropic holds exactly 2nd place.”

Will Mistral have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?

Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.006

“Mistral is a strong but smaller player. The top 3 spots are likely dominated by OpenAI, Google, Anthropic, and possibly Meta or xAI. Mistral rarely ranks in the top 3 on major benchmarks, making this unlikely.”

Will Z.ai have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?

Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.001

“Z.ai is not a well-known AI lab. The top AI models are from OpenAI, Google, Anthropic, Meta, xAI, etc. There is no indication Z.ai has a competitive frontier model, making this extremely unlikely.”

Will Alibaba have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?

Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.014

Will DeepSeek have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?

Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022

“DeepSeek has strong models but competition from Google, OpenAI, Anthropic, Meta is fierce. Being exactly 3rd (not 1st, 2nd, or lower) is a narrow target. More likely they rank 2nd-4th but exact 3rd placement is uncertain. Major labs likely hold top spots.”

Will Meituan have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?

Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.000

“Meituan is primarily a food delivery/local services company with no known frontier AI model development. Top AI models are from OpenAI, Google, Anthropic, Meta, DeepSeek, etc. Extremely unlikely Meituan would rank 3rd.”

Will Meituan have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?

Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.000

“Meituan is primarily a food delivery/local services company, not an AI model leader. Top AI models are from OpenAI, Google, Anthropic, Meta, or Chinese labs like DeepSeek. Meituan having #1 AI model is extremely unlikely.”

Will ByteDance have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?

Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022

Will OpenAI have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?

Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.010

“OpenAI is typically ranked #1 or #2 in AI model quality. Being exactly third would require both Google and Anthropic (or another competitor) to surpass them, which is unlikely given OpenAI's strong position with GPT-4o/GPT-5 class models.”

Will ByteDance have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?

Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.020

“ByteDance is a strong AI competitor but landing exactly 3rd among OpenAI, Google, Anthropic, Meta, DeepSeek is quite specific. ~5-7 serious contenders make exact 3rd placement unlikely despite their momentum.”

Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?

Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.040

“Anthropic typically competes for top 1-2 spots with OpenAI and Google. Being exactly 3rd requires being surpassed by two others, which is possible but less likely given Claude's strong performance. More likely they're 1st or 2nd than exactly 3rd.”

Will xAI have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?

Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.040

“xAI's Grok models have been competitive but typically rank behind OpenAI, Google, and Anthropic on major benchmarks. With Meta, Mistral, and others also advancing, xAI holding exactly 3rd is unlikely—more probable they're 4th or lower.”

Will Baidu have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?

Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.000

“Baidu's ERNIE models have not topped major AI benchmarks (like Chatbot Arena with Style Control) over US leaders like OpenAI, Anthropic, or Google. Very unlikely to be #1 by end of April 2026.”

Will Amazon have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?

Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.002

“Amazon's Nova models have not been competitive at the top of LLM leaderboards. OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, and Meta consistently lead. Amazon reaching #1 by end of April 2026 is very unlikely.”

Will Z.ai have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?

Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.001

“Z.ai is not a well-known major AI lab. The top spots on LMSys/Chatbot Arena leaderboards are dominated by OpenAI, Google, Anthropic, and Meta. Z.ai having #1 by end of April 2026 is extremely unlikely.”

Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?

Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.000

“Moonshot (Kimi) is a Chinese AI startup that, while promising, has not demonstrated frontier-leading models surpassing OpenAI, Google, Anthropic, or Meta. Very unlikely to be ranked #1 by end of April 2026.”

Will Mistral have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?

Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.002

“Mistral has never held #1 on major LLM leaderboards (like Chatbot Arena with Style Control). OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google consistently dominate. Very unlikely Mistral surpasses them by end of April 2026.”

Will OpenAI have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?

Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203

“OpenAI faces stiff competition from Google, Anthropic, and others. While GPT-5/o-series models are strong, the Chatbot Arena Style Control leaderboard has seen frequent leadership changes. Google's Gemini and Anthropic's Claude have been competitive, making OpenAI's #1 position u”

Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?

Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-30✗ WrongBrier: 0.490

“Anthropic has been competitive but OpenAI and Google frequently trade the #1 spot on Chatbot Arena. With Style Control On, substance matters more, but competition is fierce. Anthropic holding #1 at exactly end of April is uncertain—likely around 30%.”

Will xAI have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?

Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.006

“xAI's Grok models have not consistently topped major AI benchmarks. OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google typically dominate leaderboards. With Style Control On (likely Chatbot Arena), xAI reaching #1 by end of April 2026 is unlikely but not impossible.”

Will Moonshot have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?

Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.001

“Moonshot (Kimi) is a smaller Chinese AI lab. While they've made progress, the #1 spot on Chatbot Arena (Style Control On) is typically held by major players like OpenAI, Google, or Anthropic. Very unlikely Moonshot holds #1 by end of April 2026.”

Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?

Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203

Will DeepSeek have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?

Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.014

“DeepSeek has been competitive but typically trails OpenAI/Anthropic/Google on Chatbot Arena with Style Control On. The top spot is most likely held by OpenAI or Google by end of April 2026.”

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?

Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-30✗ WrongBrier: 0.563

“As of mid-April 2026, OpenAI and Google have been strong competitors. Anthropic competes well but historically hasn't consistently held the top spot across all benchmarks. Multiple strong competitors make it unlikely Anthropic is definitively #1 by month's end.”

Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?

Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.004

“DeepSeek has produced impressive models but consistently trails frontier labs like OpenAI, Google, and Anthropic on top benchmarks. By April 2026, US labs likely maintain the lead with newer models. DeepSeek excels at efficiency but unlikely to hold the single best model title.”

Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?

Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.010

“xAI's Grok models have been competitive but generally trail OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google on most benchmarks. As of mid-April 2026, it's unlikely xAI holds the clear top spot across standard evaluations.”

Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?

Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.000

“Z.ai is not a recognized leading AI lab. The top AI models come from OpenAI, Google DeepMind, Anthropic, Meta, etc. There is no indication Z.ai would surpass these established players by April 2026.”

Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?

Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.000

“Baidu's ERNIE models lag behind frontier models from OpenAI, Google, Anthropic, and Meta on major benchmarks. No indication Baidu will leapfrog all competitors by end of April 2026.”

Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?

Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.003

“Alibaba's Qwen models are competitive but unlikely to be the single best AI model by end of April 2026. OpenAI, Google DeepMind, Anthropic, and Meta typically lead on key benchmarks. Alibaba is a strong contender but not the frontrunner.”

Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?

Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.160

“As of early 2026, competition from Google DeepMind (Gemini Ultra/2.0), Anthropic (Claude 4), and Meta is intense. OpenAI leads in some benchmarks but 'best' is ambiguous. Given multi-way competition and recent advances by rivals, OpenAI likely doesn't clearly dominate by end of A”

Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?

Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.001

“Mistral has never held the top spot on major benchmarks like Chatbot Arena or LMSYS. OpenAI, Google, and Anthropic consistently lead. Extremely unlikely Mistral surpasses all by end of April 2026.”

Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?

Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.006

“ByteDance/DeepSeek have made impressive strides but OpenAI, Google, and Anthropic still lead on most comprehensive benchmarks. ByteDance having the single best model by end of April 2026 is unlikely but not impossible given rapid progress.”

Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?

Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.001

“Amazon's AI models (e.g., Titan, Nova) have not been competitive with frontier models from OpenAI, Google, Anthropic, or Meta. Amazon primarily partners with Anthropic rather than leading with its own models. Very unlikely to have the best AI model by end of April 2026.”

Will Brøndby IF win on 2026-04-17?

Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-17✗ WrongBrier: 0.302

“Brøndby IF is a strong Danish Superliga team, but without knowing the specific opponent or venue, and given typical match uncertainty, I estimate slightly below 50% for a win on any given matchday.”

Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?

Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122

Will Amazon be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?

Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.090

“Amazon typically ranks #4-5 by market cap, with Apple, Microsoft, and NVIDIA often ahead. While Amazon occasionally reaches #3, it's not the most likely specific ranking on any given date.”

Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?

Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.048

Will Oracle be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?

Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.001

“Oracle's market cap (~$400-500B in early 2025) would need to roughly 5-6x to reach #3 globally (~$2.5T+). Even with strong AI/cloud growth, this magnitude of appreciation in ~1 year is extremely unlikely.”

Will Saudi Aramco be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?

Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.014

Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?

Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122

Will Gustavo Petro be charged in the US by April 30?

Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.003

“Charging a sitting foreign head of state in the US would be extraordinary and unprecedented. Despite tensions between the US and Colombia under Petro, there is no credible reporting suggesting imminent US charges against him. Such a move would have massive diplomatic consequences”

Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?

Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122

Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?

Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.090

Will Saudi Aramco be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?

Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.010

“Saudi Aramco typically ranks #4-6 globally by market cap. Multiple US tech giants (Apple, Microsoft, NVIDIA) usually have larger caps. Aramco being exactly #2 requires unusual market conditions like a tech crash or oil spike.”

Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?

Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.010

Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?

Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.048

Secret Lives of Mormon Wives Season 5 cancelled by April 15?

Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-15✓ CorrectBrier: 0.006

“The show was a major hit for Hulu. By April 2026, it's likely only on Season 2-3. Season 5 probably hasn't been ordered yet, and the show is unlikely to have been fully cancelled given its popularity.”

Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the April Meeting?

Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-24✗ WrongBrier: 0.563

“The Bank of Russia has held rates at elevated levels (21%) since late 2024. With inflation still above target but showing signs of stabilizing, the CBR is likely to hold rates steady in April 2026, continuing its cautious approach before cutting.”

Will four or more people dissent the April Fed decision?

Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-29✓ CorrectBrier: 0.003

“Four or more dissents at a single FOMC meeting is extremely rare historically. Even in contentious periods, dissents rarely exceed 2-3. The April 2026 meeting is unlikely to see such an unusual level of disagreement.”

Will two people dissent the April Fed decision?

Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-29✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022

Will Denise Paul Hatch be the Democratic nominee for IN-07?

Apr 13 · Ends 2026-05-05✓ CorrectBrier: 0.063

“Open IN-07 seat likely attracts multiple strong Democratic candidates. Without clear evidence Hatch is the frontrunner in what's expected to be a competitive primary, her chances are moderate but not dominant.”

Will the Patek Index hit $109,000 (HIGH) by April 30?

Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.040

“Luxury watch prices have been in correction/stabilization since 2022 peak. With only 17 days left, hitting a HIGH threshold of $109K is unlikely unless already very close. Market conditions don't favor rapid appreciation.”

Will Mainz reach the UEFA Europa Conference League semifinal?

Apr 13 · Ends 2026-05-08✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122

“Mainz is not a traditional European contender. Even if they reached the QFs in the Conference League, advancing to semis is uncertain. Bundesliga quality helps but no guarantee against remaining opponents.”

Will Ty Simpson be the second pick in the 2026 NFL draft?

Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-23✓ CorrectBrier: 0.014

“Ty Simpson has shown flashes at Alabama but hasn't consistently been projected as a top-2 pick in most 2026 mock drafts. Other QBs and elite prospects are more likely to go #2 overall.”

Will André Carson be the Democratic nominee for IN-07?

Apr 13 · Ends 2026-05-05✓ CorrectBrier: 0.014

“André Carson has held IN-07 since 2008 and has won every primary comfortably. No major challenger has emerged. Incumbents in safe seats rarely lose primaries, making his renomination highly likely.”

Will Brigido Neto win Big Brother Brasil 26?

Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.014

“BBB26 is nearing its finale. Without strong evidence Brigido Neto is the frontrunner, and given the typical large number of contestants, the base rate for any single contestant winning is low. No clear signals suggest he is the favorite.”

Will Netflix reach $298 in April?

Apr 13 · Ends 2026-05-01✗ WrongBrier: 0.941

“Netflix has been trading well above $298 for a long time. As of early 2026, NFLX is likely in the $900-$1100+ range. Reaching $298 (which it surpassed years ago) is virtually guaranteed unless a catastrophic crash occurs.”

Will Alberto Pimentel be in the top 3 of Big Brother Brasil 26?

Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.063

“BBB26 is nearing its finale. Without strong evidence that Alberto Pimentel is a frontrunner or fan favorite, the base rate for any individual contestant making top 3 is low. No clear signals suggest he's a likely finalist.”

Will Matheus Moreira win Big Brother Brasil 26?

Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022

“BBB26 is still ongoing. Matheus Moreira is one of several remaining contestants. Without strong evidence he's the frontrunner, the probability is moderate but below 50%. Multiple viable competitors remain.”

Will Russia enter Serhiivka by April 30?

Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.006

“Serhiivka is likely a small settlement in contested territory. Without specific evidence of imminent Russian advance toward this location, and given the generally slow pace of territorial changes, the probability of entry by April 30 is low.”

Will Nottingham Forest reach the UEFA Europa League semifinal?

Apr 13 · Ends 2026-05-08✗ WrongBrier: 0.490

“Nottingham Forest qualified for Europa League via strong Premier League finish. They're competitive but reaching the semis is uncertain given the quality of opposition. Estimate ~30% chance.”

Will Marciele Albuquerque be in the top 3 of Big Brother Brasil 26?

Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122

“BBB26 is nearing its finale. Without strong evidence Marciele is a frontrunner or fan favorite likely to reach the final 3, the base rate for any individual contestant making top 3 is low. Estimating ~35% based on limited info.”

Joe Kent charged by April 30?

Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.006

“Joe Kent is a former congressional candidate and Trump ally. No credible reports of pending charges as of early 2026. While political figures can face unexpected legal issues, charging him by April 30 seems unlikely without known investigations.”

Will Elon Musk post 740-759 tweets in April 2026?

Apr 13 · Ends 2026-05-01✓ CorrectBrier: 0.002

Will Ana Paula Renault be in the top 3 of Big Brother Brasil 26?

Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-30✗ WrongBrier: 0.723

“Ana Paula Renault is a known media personality but BBB26 top 3 is highly competitive with many contestants. Without strong evidence she's currently a frontrunner, the base rate for any single contestant making top 3 is low.”

Will the Patek Index hit $107,000 (HIGH) by April 30?

Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-30✗ WrongBrier: 0.723

“With only 17 days remaining and luxury watch prices generally in correction/stabilization since 2022 peaks, reaching a HIGH target of $107K is unlikely unless the index is already very close to that level.”

Houthis successfully target shipping by April 30?

Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-30✗ WrongBrier: 0.980

“Houthis have been consistently targeting shipping in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden since late 2023. With 17 days remaining, it is virtually certain they will successfully target at least one vessel by April 30, 2026.”

Will Tromsø IL win on 2026-04-15?

Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-15✓ CorrectBrier: 0.176

“Tromsø IL playing at home in Eliteserien likely against Lillestrøm. Tromsø has moderate home advantage but Lillestrøm is typically a competitive side. Home win probability around 40-42%.”

Will Rueben Bain Jr. be the third pick in the 2026 NFL draft?

Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-23✓ CorrectBrier: 0.006

“Bain Jr. is a talented prospect but the #3 pick depends on team needs and other top prospects. Multiple players are typically in contention for top-3 picks, making any single player at exactly #3 unlikely. Mock drafts show varied candidates.”

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30?

Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022

“Despite controversies, Hegseth has Trump's backing. Cabinet secretaries rarely get fired or resign this early. No strong signals as of mid-April 2026 that removal is imminent within the next 17 days.”

Ukraine hits Moscow by April 15, 2026?

Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-15✗ WrongBrier: 0.846

“Ukraine has already conducted multiple drone strikes on Moscow throughout 2023-2025. Given the established pattern of regular Ukrainian drone attacks on Moscow, it is highly likely at least one strike has occurred by April 15, 2026.”

Will Seth Jarvis win the 2025–2026 NHL Art Ross Trophy?

Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-20✓ CorrectBrier: 0.001

“Seth Jarvis is a talented young player but not among the elite scorers typically competing for the Art Ross Trophy. Players like McDavid, Kucherov, and Draisaitl are far more likely winners. Jarvis winning would be a major upset.”

Pakistan military action against Kabul by April 15?

Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-15✓ CorrectBrier: 0.000

“Pakistan has no strategic interest in attacking Kabul. Despite tensions with the Afghan Taliban over TTP, a full military action against Kabul would be unprecedented, internationally condemned, and risk massive escalation. No credible reports suggest this is imminent.”

Will Esteban Ocon finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Bahrain Grand Prix?

Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-19✓ CorrectBrier: 0.005

“Ocon drives for Haas in 2026, a midfield team unlikely to regularly challenge for podiums. Without extraordinary circumstances (rain, retirements), a podium is improbable. ~7% accounts for rare chaotic race scenarios.”

Will Argentina’s monthly inflation in March 2026 be between 2.2% and 2.4%?

Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-14✓ CorrectBrier: 0.090

“Argentina's inflation has been on a downward trend under Milei's stabilization program. By March 2026, monthly inflation could plausibly be in the 2.2-2.4% range, but this is a narrow band. Recent trends suggest it might be slightly lower (closer to 2.0% or below) given sustained”

Will Argentina’s monthly inflation in March 2026 be between 2.5% and 2.7%?

Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-14✓ CorrectBrier: 0.090

“Argentina's inflation has been on a downward trend under Milei's stabilization efforts. By March 2026, monthly inflation could plausibly be in the 2.5-2.7% range, but this is a narrow band. Recent trends suggest it might be slightly lower (closer to 2-2.5%), making this specific ”

Will Argentina’s monthly inflation in March 2026 be less than or equal to 2.1%?

Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-14✗ WrongBrier: 0.384

“Argentina's inflation has been on a downward trend since late 2024, with monthly rates declining toward 2-3% range by early 2026. March 2026 likely continues this trend, though seasonal factors and policy risks add uncertainty. Slightly favoring ≤2.1%.”

Will Argentina’s monthly inflation in March 2026 be between 2.8% and 3.0%?

Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-14✓ CorrectBrier: 0.063

“Argentina's inflation has been on a downward trend under Milei's stabilization program. By March 2026, monthly inflation likely fell below 2.8% or could still be slightly above 3.0%. The narrow 0.2pp range makes hitting it exactly unlikely, though it's plausible. I estimate ~25%.”

Will Argentina’s monthly inflation in March 2026 be between 3.4% and 3.6%?

Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-14✗ WrongBrier: 0.563

“Argentina's inflation has been on a downward trend under Milei's stabilization efforts. By March 2026, monthly inflation likely fell below 3.4% given the trajectory from ~2.4% in late 2025. The 3.4-3.6% range is plausible but narrower than likely outcomes.”

Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, 2026?

Apr 13 · Ends 2026-04-15✗ WrongBrier: 0.563

“Israel has conducted multiple strikes against Iran in recent years (e.g., April 2024, October 2024). With ongoing tensions over Iran's nuclear program and regional conflicts, and only 2 days remaining, the question likely hinges on whether such action has already occurred. Given ”

Will Tiger Woods play in the 2026 Masters Tournament?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-13✗ WrongBrier: 0.672

“Tiger Woods has played in recent Masters tournaments despite injuries, and as a past champion he has a lifetime invitation. The 2026 Masters is imminent (April 10-13), and unless there's a last-minute withdrawal, he very likely tees it up given his track record of competing at Au”

Will Sungjae Im win the 2026 Masters tournament?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-13✓ CorrectBrier: 0.002

“Sungjae Im is a talented PGA Tour player but winning the Masters is extremely difficult. With a large competitive field, any single golfer's probability is low, typically 2-5% for top contenders. Im has no major wins yet, making ~4% reasonable.”

Will Si Woo Kim win the 2026 Masters tournament?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-13✓ CorrectBrier: 0.001

“Si Woo Kim is a talented PGA Tour player but not among the top favorites for the Masters. With a large field of elite competitors, his probability of winning is low, likely around 3%.”

Will Marco Penge win the 2026 Masters tournament?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-13✓ CorrectBrier: 0.000

“Marco Penge is a relatively low-profile European Tour player with no major championship pedigree. The Masters field includes the world's best golfers, making his chances extremely slim.”

Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-13✗ WrongBrier: 0.846

“McIlroy is a top contender but the Masters field is deep. He has never won the Masters despite many attempts at completing the career Grand Slam. Even as a favorite, any single golfer's win probability in a major is typically under 10%.”

Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-13✓ CorrectBrier: 0.006

“Schauffele is a top player and 2024 major winner, but the Masters field is deep. Any single golfer winning a specific major typically has <10% probability. No strong signals he's the clear favorite to win.”

Will Collin Morikawa win the 2026 Masters tournament?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-13✓ CorrectBrier: 0.005

“Morikawa is a top golfer and contender, but any individual winning the Masters in a given year is unlikely given the depth of the field. Typical top-player win probability is ~5-10%.”

Will Anish Giri win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-17✓ CorrectBrier: 0.014

“Giri is a strong GM but historically has not won the Candidates. With multiple elite competitors, his chances are modest. Without specific 2026 standings data, I estimate ~12% based on field strength and his track record.”

Will Javokhir Sindarov win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-17✗ WrongBrier: 0.774

“Sindarov is a talented young player but faces extremely strong competition in the Candidates. With multiple elite GMs competing, any single player's win probability is relatively low. He's not the pre-tournament favorite.”

Houthis successfully target shipping by April 15?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-15✗ WrongBrier: 0.980

“Houthis have been consistently targeting shipping in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden since late 2023. With only 3 days left and their ongoing campaign, it is virtually certain they have already targeted shipping before April 15, 2026.”

Will Gary Woodland win the 2026 Masters tournament?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-13✓ CorrectBrier: 0.000

“Gary Woodland has been battling a brain tumor and significant health issues since 2023, severely limiting his competitive golf. He is not among contenders for the 2026 Masters, making a win extremely unlikely.”

Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 Masters tournament?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-13✓ CorrectBrier: 0.006

“Rahm is a top golfer and former Masters champion, but the field is deep. Any single golfer winning a major typically has ~5-10% probability. Rahm's LIV status may affect preparation, but he remains elite. ~8% reflects his talent vs field depth.”

Will Alexander Noren win the 2026 Masters tournament?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-13✓ CorrectBrier: 0.000

“Alexander Noren is not among the favorites for the 2026 Masters. He has never contended seriously at Augusta and the field is deep with stronger competitors. Any individual golfer winning has low probability, and Noren's chances are minimal.”

Will Atlético San Luis win on 2026-04-12?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-13✓ CorrectBrier: 0.090

“Atlético San Luis is a mid-table Liga MX team. Without knowing if they're home or away, typical win probability for such teams is around 30-35%. Away matches lower this further. Defaulting to ~30%.”

Will Tommy Lloyd win the Men's 2026 Naismith Coach of the Year award?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-13✗ WrongBrier: 0.774

“Tommy Lloyd's Arizona has had a solid season but the Naismith Coach of the Year typically goes to coaches with exceptional turnaround stories or dominant seasons. Other candidates likely favored heading into the announcement.”

Will Arsenal reach the UEFA Champions League final?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-05-07✗ WrongBrier: 0.640

“Arsenal are a strong CL contender but reaching the final requires winning multiple knockout rounds. Even top-4 favorites have roughly 20-25% chance. Estimating ~20% given competition from Real Madrid, Man City, Bayern, etc.”

Will Joe Hathaway win the NJ-11 special election?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-16✓ CorrectBrier: 0.014

“NJ-11 is a competitive suburban district that has leaned Democratic in recent cycles. Joe Hathaway, likely the Republican candidate, faces an uphill battle in this district. Democrats are favored to hold this seat in the special election.”

Will the Rolex Index hit $12,450 (HIGH) by April 30?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-30✗ WrongBrier: 0.723

“Only 18 days remain. The 'HIGH' label suggests $12,450 is above current levels. Secondary Rolex market has been recovering slowly, making a sharp spike to this level in ~18 days unlikely.”

Will the Audemars Piguet Index hit $42,000 (HIGH) by April 30?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022

“Luxury watch secondary market has been in correction/stabilization since 2022 peak. With only ~18 days left, hitting a HIGH target of $42K is unlikely unless index is already very close. Market conditions don't favor rapid appreciation.”

Will the Audemars Piguet Index hit $44,000 (HIGH) by April 30?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.040

“Luxury watch secondary market prices have been in correction/stabilization since 2022 peak. With only 18 days remaining, hitting a HIGH target of $44K is unlikely unless the index is already very close to that level.”

Will Opendoor reach $5 in April?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-05-01✗ WrongBrier: 0.723

“Opendoor (OPEN) has been trading well below $5 for an extended period, generally in the $1-3 range. Reaching $5 by end of April 2026 would require a significant rally. While not impossible, it's unlikely given current trends and market conditions.”

Will the Audemars Piguet Index hit $42,500 (HIGH) by April 30?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.063

“Luxury watch secondary market prices have been declining/flat since 2022 peak. With only ~18 days left, hitting the HIGH threshold of $42,500 seems unlikely unless the index is already very close.”

Will Vejle BK win on 2026-04-13?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-13✓ CorrectBrier: 0.090

“Vejle BK are typically a mid-to-lower table Danish Superliga team. Without knowing the exact opponent or venue, their baseline win probability in any given match is around 30%. They often struggle against stronger sides.”

Will the Rolex Index hit $13,150 (HIGH) by April 30?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.090

“With only 18 days left and $13,150 labeled as HIGH target, the Rolex secondary market index likely needs meaningful upward movement. Post-bubble recovery has been gradual, making this stretch target unlikely in remaining time.”

Will the Patek Index hit $112,000 (HIGH) by April 30?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022

“With only 18 days remaining, the Patek Index would need to already be near $112K or surge quickly. Post-2022 correction in luxury watch prices makes hitting a HIGH target unlikely in this short window.”

Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur by June 30, 2026?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-30✗ WrongBrier: 0.723

“Despite Trump admin rhetoric about designating cartels as terrorists and using military force, actual cross-border operations face massive diplomatic/legal barriers. No credible reports of such operations as of April 2026. Mexico strongly opposes unilateral US action on its soil.”

Will NVIDIA dip to $168 in April?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-05-01✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022

Major solar storm by April 30?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-30✗ WrongBrier: 0.846

“We are near solar maximum (cycle 25 peaked ~2024-2025). Major solar storms (G3+) have already occurred multiple times in 2024-2025. With 18 days left and high solar activity, the probability of at least one major storm by April 30, 2026 is very high.”

Will the Audemars Piguet Index hit $41,000 (LOW) by April 30?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203

Will CD La Equidad Seguros win on 2026-04-12?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-13✗ WrongBrier: 0.422

“La Equidad is typically a mid-table Colombian team. Without specific match context, home/away info, or opponent details, winning any single match is less likely than not winning (draw or loss combined). Estimating ~35% win probability.”

Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur by April 30, 2026?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-30✗ WrongBrier: 0.422

“Despite Trump admin rhetoric about designating cartels as terrorists and using military force, actual cross-border operations face massive diplomatic/legal barriers. No confirmed operation has occurred as of mid-April 2026, and only 18 days remain. Unlikely but not impossible.”

Will Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Atlético San Luis end in a draw?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-13✗ WrongBrier: 0.563

“Draws occur in roughly 25% of Liga MX matches. Toluca playing at home are generally favored, making a draw less likely than a home win but still possible.”

Will FC Fredericia vs. Vejle BK end in a draw?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-13✗ WrongBrier: 0.548

“Draws occur in roughly 23-28% of Danish football matches. Vejle BK typically has a slight edge over Fredericia, making a decisive result more likely, but draws remain possible. Estimating ~26%.”

Will Deportivo Toluca FC win on 2026-04-12?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-13✓ CorrectBrier: 0.160

“Without specific match details, Toluca's general win probability in any given Liga MX match is around 35-45%. Slight uncertainty about opponent and venue leads to ~40% estimate.”

Will FC Fredericia win on 2026-04-13?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-13✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122

“FC Fredericia typically plays in the Danish 1st Division. Without specific match details, home/away status, or opponent info, a win probability around 35% reflects that winning any single match is uncertain, especially for a mid-table team.”

Will Brad Underwood win the Men's 2026 Naismith Coach of the Year award?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-13✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022

“Brad Underwood and Illinois had a strong 2025-26 season, but the Naismith Coach of the Year typically goes to coaches with the most surprising or dominant seasons. Without clear evidence he's the frontrunner, the probability remains low given the competitive field.”

Will Dusty May win the Men's 2026 Naismith Coach of the Year award?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-13✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122

“Dusty May had a strong season at Michigan but the Naismith Coach of the Year typically goes to coaches who exceed expectations dramatically. Other candidates likely have stronger cases this year.”

Will there be 3+ buzzer beaters during the 2026 Men's NCAA Tournament?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-13✗ WrongBrier: 0.902

“The NCAA Tournament typically features 67 games with high-pressure finishes. Historically, 3+ buzzer beaters per tournament is very common. With the tournament nearly over by April 12, results are essentially known and buzzer beaters are frequent enough to make 3+ highly likely.”

Will MrBeast hit 478 million subscribers by April 30?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-30✗ WrongBrier: 0.640

Will Palantir reach $174 in April?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-05-01✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122

“Palantir has been volatile but reaching $174 in April 2026 depends on current price levels and momentum. Given uncertainty and the specific target, I estimate a moderate but below-50% chance it hits this level within the remaining weeks of April.”

Will Google dip to $255 in April?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-05-01✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122

“Google (GOOGL) would need to dip to $255 in April 2026. Without knowing the current price exactly, if GOOGL is trading around $170-180 range as of early 2025 projections, $255 would be well above current levels—but the question asks if it 'dips to' $255, implying a decline. If GO”

Will Paulo Augusto Carvalhaes win Big Brother Brasil 26?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.014

“BBB26 is still ongoing. With multiple contestants likely remaining, any single contestant has a relatively low probability of winning. Without strong evidence Paulo is the frontrunner, estimating around 12%.”

Will Alex Warren have a #1 hit in April?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.001

“Alex Warren is a rising artist but has not yet achieved a #1 hit on major charts. Getting a #1 in April 2026 is unlikely without a massive viral moment or major label push currently underway.”

Will Hao-Tong Li win the 2026 Masters tournament?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-13✓ CorrectBrier: 0.000

“Hao-Tong Li is not among the top favorites for the 2026 Masters. He has limited PGA Tour success and is not a regular contender at major championships. The field is deep with far more likely winners.”

Will Reform UK win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd election?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-05-07✓ CorrectBrier: 0.040

“Reform UK has surged in UK polls but Wales has traditionally favoured Labour. The Senedd's mixed electoral system (constituency + regional) makes it hard for Reform to win the most seats. Labour and Plaid Cymru remain strong in Welsh politics. Reform likely gains seats but winnin”

Will Welsh Labour win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd election?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-05-07✗ WrongBrier: 0.518

“Welsh Labour has dominated Senedd elections since devolution, winning the most seats every time. Despite some erosion of support, polling still generally shows Labour as the largest party. Plaid Cymru and Conservatives would need major surges to overtake them, which seems unlikel”

Will Sovereignty Party win the most seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliament election?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-05-07✓ CorrectBrier: 0.000

“The Sovereignty Party is a fringe party with negligible support in Scottish politics. The 2026 election will almost certainly be dominated by SNP, Labour, or Conservatives. There is virtually no chance a minor party wins the most seats.”

Will Plaid Cymru win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd election?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-05-07✗ WrongBrier: 0.774

“Plaid Cymru has historically been the third party in Wales behind Labour and Conservatives. While they gained ground in 2021, Labour remains dominant. Under the new 96-seat proportional system, Labour is still favored to win the most seats. Plaid winning the most seats would be u”

Will Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) reach the UEFA Champions League final?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-05-07✗ WrongBrier: 0.672

“PSG is a strong contender but historically underperforms in CL knockouts. With ~8-10 serious competitors and PSG's recent struggles post-Mbappé departure, reaching the final is possible but unlikely in any given year.”

Will Scottish Conservatives win the most seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliament election?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-05-07✓ CorrectBrier: 0.003

“Scottish Conservatives have consistently polled well behind both SNP and Labour in Scotland. With Labour surging and SNP still dominant in many areas, Conservatives winning the most seats would be historically unprecedented and contrary to all current polling trends.”

Will the Bank of Mexico announce no change at the May meeting?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-05-07✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022

“Banxico has been in an easing cycle since 2024, cutting rates at most meetings. With inflation moderating and economic slowdown concerns, a rate cut at the May 2025 meeting is far more likely than a hold. Probability of no change is low.”

Will Atlético Madrid reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-05-07✗ WrongBrier: 0.422

Will Bayern München reach the UEFA Champions League final?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-05-07✓ CorrectBrier: 0.090

“Bayern is a perennial UCL contender but reaching the final requires beating several elite teams. Pre-tournament ~25% chance, slightly adjusted for April timing. Strong but far from certain.”

Will Alba Party win the most seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliament election?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-05-07✓ CorrectBrier: 0.000

“Alba Party polls at ~1-2% consistently, has no MSPs currently, and faces massive competition from SNP, Labour, and Conservatives. Winning the most seats is essentially impossible.”

Will Barcelona reach the UEFA Champions League final?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-05-07✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203

Will the Bank of Mexico announce an increase at the May meeting?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-05-07✓ CorrectBrier: 0.001

“Banxico has been in an easing cycle since 2024, cutting rates multiple times. With inflation moderating and global uncertainty from trade tensions, a rate hike at the May 2026 meeting is extremely unlikely.”

Will the Bank of Mexico announce a decrease at the May meeting?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-05-07✓ CorrectBrier: 0.032

“Banxico has been in an easing cycle since mid-2024, cutting rates at consecutive meetings. With inflation trending toward target and global slowdown risks, a further 25bp cut at the May 2026 meeting is highly likely, consistent with the ongoing dovish trajectory.”

Will Sherrod Brown be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Ohio?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-05-05✗ WrongBrier: 0.723

“Sherrod Brown lost his Senate seat in November 2024 to Bernie Moreno. It's unlikely he would run again in 2026, as Ohio's next Senate race (for the other seat) would be in 2028. There's no 2026 Ohio Senate race for Democrats to contest.”

Will Amy Acton win the 2026 Ohio Governor Democratic primary election?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-05-05✗ WrongBrier: 0.422

“Amy Acton gained prominence during COVID but hasn't confirmed a gubernatorial run. The 2026 OH Dem primary is competitive with multiple potential candidates. Without strong evidence she's running and leading, probability is below 50%.”

Will the Reserve Bank of Australia decrease the target for the cash rate after the May Meeting?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-05-05✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203

Will Greg Landsman be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Ohio?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-05-05✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122

“Ohio 2026 Dem Senate primary is competitive. Landsman is a strong candidate but faces other contenders. The primary hasn't occurred yet and the field likely includes other notable Democrats, making his nomination uncertain.”

Will Netflix reach $105 in April?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-05-01✗ WrongBrier: 0.980

“Netflix trades around $900-1100 per share as of early 2026. A drop to $105 would require a ~90% decline in weeks, which is virtually impossible absent extraordinary circumstances like bankruptcy.”

Will Jacob Chiara win the 2026 Ohio Governor Democratic primary election?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-05-05✓ CorrectBrier: 0.014

“Jacob Chiara is not a well-known figure in Ohio Democratic politics. The 2026 Democratic primary will likely feature more prominent candidates with stronger name recognition and fundraising. Without evidence of significant support, his chances are low.”

Will Tesla dip to $248 in April?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-05-01✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203

“Tesla is volatile and $248 is within plausible range for April 2026. Without knowing the current price, historical volatility suggests a moderate chance of touching $248 at some point during the month, but it depends heavily on current trading levels.”

Will Shakira perform at the 2026 Todo Mundo no Rio music festival?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-05-03✓ CorrectBrier: 0.063

“Todo Mundo no Rio is a major new festival in Rio de Janeiro in 2026. Shakira has been actively touring and performing at large-scale events. Given her global popularity and the festival's ambition, she is a likely headliner, though without confirmed lineup details, some uncertain”

Will the Reserve Bank of Australia increase the target for the cash rate after the May Meeting?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-05-05✗ WrongBrier: 0.941

“RBA just began easing in Feb 2025. A rate hike reversal within months would be extraordinary. Even with tariff uncertainty, RBA would hold rather than hike. Market expects cuts or holds, not hikes.”

Will Kanye West have a #1 hit in April?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.010

“Kanye has been less commercially dominant in recent years, with controversies limiting mainstream promotion. No known major single release timed for April 2026. A #1 hit is possible but unlikely without a confirmed drop.”

Will Olivia Dean have a #1 hit in April?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.003

“Olivia Dean is a rising UK artist but hasn't yet achieved a #1 hit single. Without evidence of a major upcoming release or viral moment in April 2026, a #1 hit is unlikely but not impossible.”

Will Microsoft dip to $353 in April?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-05-01✗ WrongBrier: 0.270

“Severe tariff-driven market selloff in early April 2026 pushed tech stocks down significantly. MSFT likely dropped near $353 during worst of the volatility, though its relative resilience adds uncertainty.”

Will Russia capture Viroliubivka by April 30?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.063

“Viroliubivka is a small settlement in the Donbas region. Russia's advance has been slow and grinding. With only ~18 days left, capturing a specific village depends on local conditions, but the general pace of Russian advances makes full capture unlikely by April 30.”

Will Meta dip to $500 in April?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-05-01✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122

“Meta likely trades above $500 in April 2026 given growth trajectory. A dip to $500 would require ~10-20% pullback, possible with macro risks but not the base case within one month.”

Will Amazon dip to $168 in April?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-05-01✗ WrongBrier: 0.462

“AMZN likely experienced significant selling pressure in early April 2026 due to tariff escalation and trade war fears. With extreme market volatility, a dip to $168 is plausible given the broad selloff in tech stocks.”

Will Tesla dip to $285 in April?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-05-01✗ WrongBrier: 0.302

“Tesla is volatile and $285 is within a plausible intraday range for April 2026. Given TSLA's history of wide swings, there's a moderate chance it touches $285 at some point during the month, though it depends on current price levels which are uncertain.”

U.S. Congress member out over Epstein files by April 30?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.003

“No sitting Congress member has resigned or been expelled due to Epstein files as of early 2026. Despite document releases, no direct evidence has forced a member out, and political incentives strongly favor staying in office. Very unlikely in remaining 18 days.”

Will the Central Bank of Colombia announce no change at the April meeting?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203

“Colombia's central bank has been in a cautious easing cycle. By April 2026, rates may be near a level where pausing is likely, but continued cuts are also possible. Slight edge to a hold given inflation persistence and global uncertainty.”

Will MrBeast hit 485 million subscribers by April 30?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.014

“MrBeast's growth rate (~3-5M/month historically) would likely put him around 400-440M by April 2026. Reaching 485M would require sustained growth far above historical norms, making this target very ambitious.”

Will Russia capture Pokrovka by April 30?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.002

“Russia's advance toward Pokrovsk has been extremely slow despite months of effort. As of early 2026, they remain several km away. Capturing a fortified city of this size in under 3 weeks is highly unlikely given current pace and Ukrainian defenses.”

Will Russia enter Khatnie by April 30, 2026?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.160

“Khatnie is likely a small settlement near the frontline in eastern Ukraine. With only 18 days remaining, Russia's slow advance pace makes entry possible but uncertain. Without confirmed reports of capture, moderate probability.”

Will FaZe make a roster move before May?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022

“FaZe Clan across multiple esports (CS2, Valorant, etc.) frequently makes roster changes. With the question window extending to end of April 2026, it's highly likely at least one roster move occurs in any of their teams before then.”

Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 1.0% and 1.5%?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.032

“Q1 2026 GDP estimates are highly uncertain due to tariff impacts. Many forecasters expect either a contraction or very low growth (<1%), or potentially higher if pre-tariff front-loading boosts activity. The 1.0-1.5% band is relatively narrow, making it unlikely to land precisely”

X Money released by April 30, 2026?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.014

“X Money (Elon Musk's payment feature for X/Twitter) has been discussed for years but progress has been slow. As of early 2026, there's no confirmed full public launch. Only 18 days remain, making a release by April 30 unlikely.”

Will Noah Kahan have a #1 hit in April?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.003

“Noah Kahan has never had a #1 hit on the Hot 100. While popular, his chart peaks have been in the top 10-20 range. No indication of a major release or collaboration likely to reach #1 in April 2026.”

Will MrBeast hit 479 million subscribers by April 30?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-30✗ WrongBrier: 0.302

Ukraine hits Moscow by April 30, 2026?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-30✗ WrongBrier: 0.672

“Ukraine has already conducted multiple drone strikes on Moscow throughout 2023-2025. Given the established pattern of regular drone attacks on Moscow, it is highly likely at least one strike occurs by April 30, 2026.”

Will Russia enter Stinky by April 30?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122

“Original March 31 deadline likely passed without resolution, suggesting entry isn't imminent. 18 days remain but Russia's advances have been slow and grinding. Moderate-low probability.”

Will the Central Bank of Colombia announce an increase at the April meeting?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.001

“Colombia's central bank has been in an easing cycle since late 2023, cutting rates from 13.25% down significantly. With inflation declining and economic weakness, a rate increase in April 2026 is extremely unlikely barring a major shock.”

Will The Bride be the March film with the highest domestic gross on April 30?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.014

“Snow White (Disney live-action remake, March 21) likely outgrosses The Bride domestically despite poor reviews. Disney remakes historically gross $100M+ domestically, while Blumhouse horror films rarely reach that level.”

Will David Portnoy give another 9+ pizza review by April 30?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-30✗ WrongBrier: 0.941

“David Portnoy reviews pizza very frequently and has given many 9+ scores over the years. With 18 days remaining until April 30, 2026, it's nearly certain he'll give at least one 9+ review in that timeframe.”

Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by April 30?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.001

“Russia has been fighting in Vovchansk since mid-2024 with minimal progress. Ukrainian forces have stubbornly defended the city. Full capture in 18 days is extremely unlikely given the slow pace of advances and strong Ukrainian resistance.”

Will Meta reach $660 in April?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-05-01✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203

“Meta has been trading in a volatile range in 2026. Given current market conditions and Meta's strong AI/advertising momentum, reaching $660 at some point in April is plausible but uncertain. Slight lean toward YES given remaining trading days.”

Will Sarah Andrade win Big Brother Brasil 26?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.003

“BBB26 has many contestants and winning is highly uncertain for any single participant. Without strong evidence Sarah Andrade is a frontrunner, the base rate for any individual winning is very low.”

Will Ukraine re-enter Uspenivka by April 30?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.010

“Uspenivka is in a contested area where Russia has been advancing. Ukraine has struggled to recapture lost territory, and there's no indication of a major counteroffensive targeting this settlement. With only ~18 days left, re-entry is unlikely.”

Will Aline Campos win Big Brother Brasil 26?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.014

“BBB26 is nearing its finale. Aline Campos is a contestant but winning BBB requires sustained public support. With multiple strong competitors typically in the final stretch, any single contestant's win probability is modest unless clear frontrunner signals exist.”

Will Russia enter Svitle by April 30?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122

“Russia likely hadn't entered Svitle by March 31 (implied by deadline extension). With ~18 days left and typically slow Russian advance rates, entry is possible but not probable.”

Will Russia enter Shevchenko by April 30?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022

“Shevchenko likely refers to a specific Ukrainian locality. As of mid-April 2026, there's no strong indication Russia has entered or will enter this location by April 30. The front lines have been relatively static in most areas, making a rapid advance unlikely in 18 days.”

Will the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $1.50 (LOW) by April 30, 2026?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-30✗ WrongBrier: 0.774

Will Marcelo Alves win Big Brother Brasil 26?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022

“BBB26 is still ongoing. Without strong evidence Marcelo Alves is the frontrunner, the probability of any single contestant winning is relatively low given the typical number of finalists remaining at this stage.”

Will Russia capture all of Ternuvate by April 30, 2026?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.003

“Ternuvate is not near active front lines. Russia's advances have been slow and incremental. Capturing a settlement far from current positions in 18 days is extremely unlikely barring a major collapse of Ukrainian defenses.”

Will MrBeast hit 490 million subscribers by April 30?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.014

Will Germany GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 0.4% and 0.6%?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-30✗ WrongBrier: 0.774

“Germany's economy has been stagnant/contracting recently. 0.4-0.6% quarterly growth is relatively strong for Germany given structural headwinds, trade uncertainty, and weak industrial output. More likely growth is near 0% or slightly negative/positive.”

Will the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $1.75 (LOW) by April 30, 2026?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-30✗ WrongBrier: 0.672

Iran removed from FIFA World Cup by April 30?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.003

“Iran qualified for the 2026 FIFA World Cup through AFC qualifying. FIFA has not indicated any move to ban Iran. While there have been occasional calls for bans, no credible action is underway. Removal by April 30 is very unlikely.”

Will Russia enter Rai-Oleksandrivka by April 30, 2026?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-30✗ WrongBrier: 0.422

“Category suggests event hadn't occurred by Feb 28 deadline. Russian advances are slow but steady. With ~18 days remaining, moderate but below-even chance Russia reaches this specific settlement.”

Will the Bank of Canada announce an increase at the April meeting?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-29✓ CorrectBrier: 0.001

“The Bank of Canada has been in a cutting cycle since mid-2024. With inflation moderating and economic uncertainty from trade tensions, a rate hike in April 2026 is extremely unlikely. Markets expect holds or further cuts.”

Will Southampton FC win on 2026-04-03?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-28✓ CorrectBrier: 0.160

“Southampton FC's match on 2026-04-03 has already occurred. Without specific result info, estimating based on typical EFL Championship win rates. Southampton are generally competitive but winning any single match is uncertain, ~40%.”

Will Ipswich Town FC win on 2026-04-03?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-28✓ CorrectBrier: 0.090

“Likely a Championship away match at Stoke. Away win rates in the Championship are typically around 25-30%. Without specific result data, using base rates for away wins.”

Will Cashius Howell be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-25✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022

“Cashius Howell is not widely considered the consensus #1 pick for the 2026 NFL Draft. Other prospects like Shedeur Sanders, Cam Ward, or top non-QB talents are more frequently mocked at #1. Without strong consensus, his probability is low.”

Will Sawyer Robertson be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-25✗ WrongBrier: 0.302

“Sawyer Robertson (Texas Tech QB) is widely mocked as the #1 pick in 2026 drafts, but QB class uncertainty and team needs could shift things. He's the frontrunner but not a lock.”

Will Matayo Uiagalelei be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-25✓ CorrectBrier: 0.014

“Matayo Uiagalelei (DE from Oregon) is a top prospect but faces stiff competition from other elite players like Cam Ward or Travis Hunter for the #1 pick. He's likely a top-5 pick but not the consensus #1 overall.”

Will Kadyn Proctor be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-25✓ CorrectBrier: 0.014

“Kadyn Proctor is a talented OT prospect, but offensive linemen rarely go #1 overall. QBs like Shedeur Sanders or Cam Ward, or elite edge/defensive players, are more commonly projected at #1. Proctor is likely a top-10 pick but not the consensus #1.”

Will LT Overton be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-25✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203

“Overton is a top prospect but the #1 pick is highly contested. Shedeur Sanders, Cam Ward, and other QBs often rise to #1. Without a clear consensus, Overton has a strong but not majority chance.”

Will Raylen Wilson be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-25✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203

“Raylen Wilson is a top prospect but the #1 pick is uncertain. Multiple QBs and edge rushers compete for the top spot. Wilson is a strong candidate but not a lock, with Shedeur Sanders, Carson Beck, or others also in contention depending on team needs.”

Will Kyron Drones be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-25✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022

“Kyron Drones is not widely projected as the consensus #1 pick in 2026 mock drafts. QBs like Shedeur Sanders, Cam Ward, or other top prospects are more commonly mocked at #1. Drones lacks the top-tier buzz needed for the first overall selection.”

Will Nico Iamaleava be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-25✓ CorrectBrier: 0.014

“Iamaleava has talent but is not widely projected as the consensus #1 pick in 2026. Other QBs like Shedeur Sanders or Cam Ward, plus elite non-QB prospects, are more commonly mocked at #1. His 2025 season at Tennessee hasn't generated clear #1 overall buzz.”

Will Jayden Maiava be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-25✓ CorrectBrier: 0.004

“Maiava is a promising young QB but is not widely projected as the #1 overall pick in 2026. Other prospects like Shedeur Sanders or Cam Ward are more commonly mocked at #1. Maiava's draft stock would need a massive rise to go first overall.”

Will Ty Simpson be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-25✓ CorrectBrier: 0.014

“Ty Simpson has not been consistently projected as the #1 overall pick in 2026 mock drafts. Other prospects like Shedeur Sanders, Carson Beck, or top defensive players are more commonly mocked at #1. Simpson lacks the consensus top-pick buzz needed.”

Will Peter Woods be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-25✓ CorrectBrier: 0.014

“Peter Woods is a talented DL prospect but the #1 pick in 2026 is more likely to be a QB (e.g., Shedeur Sanders, Carson Beck) or another top prospect. Edge/DL rarely go #1 unless there's no QB need. Woods is projected top 5-10 but unlikely #1 overall.”

Will Garrett Nussmeier be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-25✓ CorrectBrier: 0.032

“Nussmeier is a top QB prospect but the #1 pick depends on team needs. Historically, QBs often go #1 but competition from other top prospects (e.g., Shedeur Sanders, Carson Beck, or others) and team draft position make this uncertain. He's a contender but not the favorite.”

Will John Mateer be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-25✓ CorrectBrier: 0.176

“Mateer is a top QB prospect but faces competition from Cam Ward, Carson Beck, and others. QBs often go #1 but the specific pick depends on team needs. Slight lean against due to competitive field.”

Will Caleb Downs be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-25✓ CorrectBrier: 0.032

“Caleb Downs is a talented safety, but safeties almost never go #1 overall. QBs and edge rushers dominate top picks. Cam Ward, Shedeur Sanders, or a top QB/edge prospect are more likely #1. Downs is projected as a top-10 pick but not #1.”

Will Keldric Faulk be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-25✗ WrongBrier: 0.302

“Keldric Faulk is a top prospect for the 2026 draft, but QB-needy teams picking first could shift things. He's a strong favorite but not a lock, with competition from other elite prospects.”

Will David Bailey be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-25✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022

“David Bailey is not widely considered the consensus #1 pick for the 2026 NFL Draft. Other prospects like Cam Ward, Shedeur Sanders, or top defensive players are more frequently mocked at #1. Bailey lacks the dominant consensus needed to be the top pick.”

Will Drew Allar be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-25✓ CorrectBrier: 0.032

“Drew Allar is a solid QB prospect but historically the #1 pick goes to the consensus top QB. Shedeur Sanders, Cam Ward, or other QBs from the 2026 class may be preferred. Allar lacks the elite buzz typically needed for #1 overall.”

Will Jordyn Tyson be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-25✓ CorrectBrier: 0.014

“Jordyn Tyson is a talented WR prospect from Arizona State, but WRs rarely go #1 overall. QBs and edge rushers typically dominate the top pick. Cam Ward, Shedeur Sanders, or a top QB/pass rusher are more likely #1 picks in 2026.”

Will South Korea GDP growth in Q1 2026 be at least 2.5%?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-23✗ WrongBrier: 0.563

“South Korea's GDP growth has been sluggish, with political instability and global trade headwinds (US tariffs). Recent forecasts for 2025-2026 growth are around 1.5-2.0% YoY. Reaching 2.5% in Q1 2026 would require a significant acceleration that seems unlikely given current condi”

Will Jalon Daniels be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-25✓ CorrectBrier: 0.006

“Jalon Daniels has talent but inconsistent health/production at Kansas makes him unlikely to be the consensus #1 pick. Other QBs like Shedeur Sanders or Cam Ward (if eligible) or top non-QB prospects are more likely to go first overall.”

Will Aidan Chiles be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-25✓ CorrectBrier: 0.001

“Aidan Chiles had a very rough 2024 season at Michigan State and transferred. He is not considered a top prospect for the 2026 draft. QBs like Shedeur Sanders, Cam Ward, or others are far more likely to go #1.”

Will Francis Mauigoa be the second pick in the 2026 NFL draft?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-23✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022

“Mauigoa is a top OT prospect but the #2 pick depends heavily on team needs. QBs, edge rushers, and other positions often dominate top picks. While he's in the conversation, being specifically #2 is unlikely given the many elite prospects competing for that slot.”

Will Jeremiyah Love go top 10 in the 2026 Pro Football draft?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-23✗ WrongBrier: 0.723

“Running backs rarely go top 10 in modern NFL drafts. Love is talented but the positional devaluation of RBs makes a top-10 selection unlikely despite his production at Notre Dame.”

Will Arvell Reese be the second pick in the 2026 NFL draft?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-23✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022

“Arvell Reese is a talented LB prospect but the #2 pick typically goes to a QB, OT, or edge rusher. LBs rarely go this high. Other prospects like QBs or pass rushers are more likely at #2 overall.”

Will Reuben Bain Jr. be the second pick in the 2026 NFL draft?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-23✓ CorrectBrier: 0.014

“Reuben Bain Jr. is a talented edge rusher but the #2 pick in the 2026 draft is highly competitive. Multiple prospects (QBs, other elite players) are typically favored. Being picked exactly #2 is unlikely for any single player.”

Will Arvell Reese be the third pick in the 2026 NFL draft?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-23✓ CorrectBrier: 0.063

“Arvell Reese is a talented LB prospect, but the #3 pick in the 2026 NFL draft is highly uncertain with multiple top prospects competing. Linebackers rarely go top 3, and QBs/edge rushers/OTs typically dominate. Moderate but not leading probability.”

Will the 1st pick in the 2026 Pro Football draft be a QB?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-23✓ CorrectBrier: 0.014

“Historically, QBs go #1 overall most years. In 2026, top prospects like Shedeur Sanders and Cam Ward are QBs. The team picking #1 typically needs a franchise QB, making this highly likely.”

Will Garrett Nussmeier be the second pick in the 2026 NFL draft?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-23✓ CorrectBrier: 0.063

“Nussmeier is a top QB prospect in 2026, but the #2 pick depends on team needs. If the #1 pick is a QB, #2 may go non-QB. Multiple QBs and other elite prospects compete for this slot, making any single player at exactly #2 unlikely.”

Will the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) win the most seats in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-23✓ CorrectBrier: 0.000

“BSP has virtually no presence in Tamil Nadu politics. The party has never won a seat in the TN assembly. DMK, AIADMK, and other Dravidian parties dominate. BSP winning the most seats is essentially impossible.”

Will the Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam (DMDK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-23✓ CorrectBrier: 0.000

“DMDK has been a minor party in Tamil Nadu politics, winning very few seats in recent elections. The DMK and AIADMK dominate. DMDK has no realistic path to winning the most seats in 2026.”

Will the National People’s Party (NPEP) win the most seats in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-23✓ CorrectBrier: 0.000

“NPEP is a very minor party in Tamil Nadu with negligible electoral presence. DMK and AIADMK dominate TN politics. NPEP has virtually no chance of winning the most seats in the 2026 TN assembly election.”

Will the Communist Party of India (CPI) win the most seats in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-23✓ CorrectBrier: 0.000

“CPI is a minor party in Tamil Nadu, typically contesting only a handful of seats as part of an alliance (DMK or AIADMK-led). They have never won the most seats in TN and have no realistic path to doing so in 2026.”

Will Miro Heiskanen win the 2025–2026 NHL Art Ross Trophy?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-20✓ CorrectBrier: 0.000

“Heiskanen is an elite defenseman but defensemen almost never win the Art Ross Trophy (scoring title). The last defenseman to win was Bobby Orr in 1974-75. Forwards dominate scoring consistently.”

Will the Chicago Blackhawks win the 2025–2026 NHL Presidents' Trophy?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-20✓ CorrectBrier: 0.000

“The Blackhawks have been one of the weakest teams in the NHL in recent seasons and are in a rebuild. Even with young talent developing, winning the Presidents' Trophy in 2025-26 is extremely unlikely.”

Will Macklin Celebrini win the 2025–2026 NHL Art Ross Trophy?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-20✓ CorrectBrier: 0.003

“Celebrini is a talented rookie but winning the Art Ross in his second NHL season would be historically unprecedented. The trophy typically goes to established superstars like McDavid, Kucherov, or Draisaitl. Extremely unlikely for a sophomore.”

Will Dylan Guenther win the 2025–2026 NHL Art Ross Trophy?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-20✓ CorrectBrier: 0.004

“Dylan Guenther is a talented young player but winning the Art Ross Trophy requires leading the NHL in points. As of April 2026, established superstars like McDavid, Kucherov, or Draisaitl are far more likely leaders. Guenther would be a surprising winner at this stage of his care”

Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025–2026 NHL Presidents' Trophy?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-20✓ CorrectBrier: 0.063

“Jets were strong in 2024-25 but winning the Presidents' Trophy is hard to repeat. With the season nearly over, they're likely competitive but not guaranteed the top spot. Without confirmed standings, ~25% reflects their chances as a contender among several elite teams.”

Will the Calgary Flames win the 2025–2026 NHL Presidents' Trophy?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-20✓ CorrectBrier: 0.002

“The Calgary Flames are a rebuilding/bubble team unlikely to finish with the best record in the NHL. Top contenders like Colorado, Florida, Dallas, and Winnipeg are far more likely to win the Presidents' Trophy.”

Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2025–2026 NHL Presidents' Trophy?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-20✗ WrongBrier: 0.723

“Colorado is a strong contender but the Presidents' Trophy is hard to predict. With ~30 teams competing, even top teams win it only ~10-20% of the time. Avalanche are elite but not dominant favorites.”

Will the Dallas Stars win the 2025–2026 NHL Presidents' Trophy?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-20✓ CorrectBrier: 0.014

“Dallas Stars are a strong team but the Presidents' Trophy is won by only 1 of 32 teams. Even top contenders rarely exceed ~15% probability. Without specific 2025-26 standings data, I estimate ~12% based on their competitive roster.”

Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025–2026 NHL Presidents' Trophy?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-20✓ CorrectBrier: 0.063

“The Devils are a strong contender with a talented roster, but winning the Presidents' Trophy requires finishing with the best record in the NHL. With multiple elite teams competing, the probability for any single team is modest. Devils are plausible but far from certain.”

Will the Philadelphia Flyers win the 2025–2026 NHL Presidents' Trophy?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-20✓ CorrectBrier: 0.000

“The Flyers have been a rebuilding team and are unlikely contenders for the Presidents' Trophy. With only days left in the season, they almost certainly don't have the best record in the NHL.”

Will Liam Lawson finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Bahrain Grand Prix?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-19✓ CorrectBrier: 0.040

“Lawson is driving for Red Bull in 2026. With new regulations, Red Bull's competitiveness is uncertain. Podium finishes depend on car performance and race circumstances. ~20% chance reflects reasonable but not high likelihood.”

Will the Nashville Predators win the 2025–2026 NHL Presidents' Trophy?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-20✓ CorrectBrier: 0.001

“Nashville has historically been a competitive but not dominant regular-season team. With ~30 teams competing, and Nashville not typically among the top point-getters, their chances are very low. No strong evidence they'd lead the league this season.”

Will Pierre Gasly finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Bahrain Grand Prix?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-19✓ CorrectBrier: 0.006

“Gasly drives for Alpine, a midfield team. Even with 2026 regulation changes, Alpine is unlikely to be immediately competitive for podiums. Gasly's podium rate historically is low (~3-5%). A podium is possible but unlikely.”

Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2025–2026 NHL Presidents' Trophy?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-20✓ CorrectBrier: 0.004

“The Kings are a competitive playoff team but not typically among the top 1-2 teams in the NHL standings. With ~32 teams competing, even strong teams rarely win the Presidents' Trophy. The Kings lack the elite dominance needed.”

Will Movement for Rights and Freedoms (DPS) win the most seats in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-19✓ CorrectBrier: 0.006

“DPS (Movement for Rights and Freedoms) has historically been a mid-sized party in Bulgaria, typically finishing 3rd or 4th. Even after its 2024 split, neither faction has polled near the top. GERB or PP-DB are far more likely to win the most seats.”

Will George Russell finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Bahrain Grand Prix?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-19✓ CorrectBrier: 0.090

“Russell is a strong driver but podium finishes depend on car competitiveness under 2026 regs. Mercedes may not be top-3 consistently. Historically ~25-35% podium rate per race for a competitive midfield-to-front team.”

Will Franco Colapinto finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Bahrain Grand Prix?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-19✓ CorrectBrier: 0.003

“Colapinto is driving for Alpine in 2026, a midfield team unlikely to challenge for podiums regularly. Without exceptional circumstances like attrition or rain, a podium finish is improbable.”

Will the Toronto Maple Leafs win the 2025–2026 NHL Presidents' Trophy?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-20✓ CorrectBrier: 0.006

“The Maple Leafs are a strong team but winning the Presidents' Trophy requires finishing with the best record in the NHL, which is difficult for any single team. With ~30 other competitors, even top teams have roughly 5-15% odds. Toronto is competitive but not the clear favorite.”

Will BSP – United Left win the most seats in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-19✓ CorrectBrier: 0.014

“BSP has been in steep decline in recent Bulgarian elections, polling poorly. GERB or PP-DB are far more likely to win the most seats. BSP-United Left winning most seats would be a major upset.”

Will Gabriel Bortoleto finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Bahrain Grand Prix?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-19✓ CorrectBrier: 0.006

“Bortoleto is a rookie at Sauber/Kick in 2026, likely in a midfield or backmarker car. Podiums for rookies in uncompetitive machinery are very rare, requiring extraordinary circumstances like attrition or weather chaos.”

Will Morality, Unity, Honour (MECH) win the most seats in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-19✓ CorrectBrier: 0.006

“MECH (Morality, Unity, Honour) is a minor party in Bulgarian politics with no significant polling support. GERB or other major parties like PP-DB or Revival are far more likely to win the most seats in any upcoming Bulgarian election.”

Will There Is Such a People (ITN) win the most seats in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-19✓ CorrectBrier: 0.006

“ITN (Slavi Trifonov's party) has seen dramatic decline since its 2021 peak. In recent Bulgarian elections, GERB and PP-DB have dominated. ITN has struggled to even pass the threshold in recent votes, making a first-place finish extremely unlikely.”

Will Velichie win the most seats in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-19✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022

“Velichie is a smaller nationalist party in Bulgaria. GERB-SDS or PP-DB are far more likely to win the most seats. Velichie lacks the broad support base needed to lead, though Bulgarian politics is fragmented.”

Will Valtteri Bottas finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Bahrain Grand Prix?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-19✓ CorrectBrier: 0.001

“Bottas has been without a competitive F1 seat. Even if he returns to the grid for 2026, he's unlikely to be in a top team capable of podium finishes. His recent form and team prospects make a podium highly improbable.”

Will Vazrazhdane win the most seats in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-19✓ CorrectBrier: 0.014

“Vazrazhdane is a nationalist party that has been growing but still polls well behind GERB and sometimes behind PP-DB. Winning the most seats would require a dramatic shift. GERB remains the frontrunner in most scenarios for Bulgarian elections.”

Will Sergio Perez finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Bahrain Grand Prix?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-19✓ CorrectBrier: 0.003

“Perez left Red Bull at end of 2024 and does not have a confirmed 2026 F1 seat. Without a competitive drive, a podium finish is extremely unlikely.”

Will Alliance for Rights and Freedoms (APS) win the most seats in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-19✓ CorrectBrier: 0.014

“APS (formerly DPS/MRF) represents primarily ethnic Turkish minority voters in Bulgaria. While it has been a significant parliamentary force, it has never won the most seats. GERB or other major parties are far more likely to lead. APS winning plurality would be unprecedented.”

Will Alexander Albon finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Bahrain Grand Prix?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-19✓ CorrectBrier: 0.006

“Albon is talented but Williams has historically been a midfield/backmarker team. Even with 2026 regulation changes, a podium finish requires exceptional circumstances. Unlikely but not impossible.”

Will We Continue the Change – Democratic Bulgaria (PP–DB) win the most seats in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-19✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122

“PP-DB has been competitive but GERB-SDS has historically been the largest party in recent Bulgarian elections. While PP-DB could win, GERB's organizational strength and Vazrazhdane's rise make it uncertain. PP-DB winning most seats is possible but not the most likely outcome.”

Will Fernando Alonso finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Bahrain Grand Prix?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-19✓ CorrectBrier: 0.003

“Alonso will be 44 years old in 2026. Even with Aston Martin's new regulations car, a podium is unlikely given the team's recent midfield performance and strong competition from top teams like Red Bull, Ferrari, and McLaren.”

Will Western Force win?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-18✗ WrongBrier: 0.302

“Western Force likely playing Fijian Drua in Super Rugby Pacific. Force have generally been competitive at home and Drua can be inconsistent, giving Force a slight edge, but this is a close matchup.”

Will Fijian Drua win?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-18✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203

“Fijian Drua playing at home (likely) against Western Force, who have generally been weaker in Super Rugby Pacific. Drua have a slight edge but not dominant, giving them a moderate probability of winning.”

Will Brumbies win?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-17✓ CorrectBrier: 0.160

“Brumbies are typically a strong Super Rugby Pacific team, especially at home. Without specific match details, their historical strength gives them a moderate edge, likely around 60%.”

Will the Nashville Predators make the NHL Playoffs?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-16✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122

“The Predators have struggled in the 2025-26 season despite offseason additions. With only days left before the resolution date, they likely fall short of a playoff spot in the competitive Western Conference.”

Will the New York Islanders make the NHL Playoffs?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-16✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122

“The Islanders have been a bubble team in recent seasons, struggling with aging core and inconsistent scoring. As of mid-April 2026, they likely fell short of a playoff spot in a competitive Eastern Conference.”

Will the Vegas Golden Knights make the NHL Playoffs?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-16✓ CorrectBrier: 0.003

“The Golden Knights have been a consistent playoff team since their inception, with strong roster depth and management. With the resolution date just days away, the regular season is essentially over and VGK very likely secured a playoff spot.”

Will Highlanders win?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-17✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203

“Without specific context on the teams/league, Highlanders vs Brumbies in rugby suggests a competitive match. Brumbies are typically strong, giving Highlanders slightly less than even odds.”

Will the Detroit Red Wings make the NHL Playoffs?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-16✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203

“The Red Wings have been rebuilding and are on the bubble. They've improved but the Eastern Conference is competitive. With the season nearly over, they're likely fighting for a wild card spot but may fall just short.”

Will the St. Louis Blues make the NHL Playoffs?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-16✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122

“The Blues have been a bubble team in recent seasons, struggling to consistently make the playoffs. With strong Western Conference competition, they likely fall short again in 2025-26.”

Will the Anaheim Ducks make the NHL Playoffs?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-16✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203

“The Ducks have been a rebuilding team but with young talent like Zegras, Drysdale, and recent additions, they could be on the playoff bubble for 2025-26. Close to the cutline but slightly favoring YES given their trajectory.”

Will the Edmonton Oilers make the NHL Playoffs?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-16✓ CorrectBrier: 0.003

“The Oilers have been a top NHL team in recent seasons with McDavid and Draisaitl. With the resolution date just days away, the regular season is essentially over. Edmonton very likely secured a playoff spot.”

Will the San Jose Sharks make the NHL Playoffs?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-16✓ CorrectBrier: 0.006

“The Sharks have been one of the worst teams in the NHL for several seasons and are in a rebuild. Even with Macklin Celebrini, they are very unlikely to have improved enough to make the 2025-26 playoffs with only days remaining in the regular season.”

Will the Boston Bruins make the NHL Playoffs?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-16✗ WrongBrier: 0.302

“The Bruins have been in a transitional phase in 2025-26. With the regular season ending around mid-April, they are likely on the bubble. Given their aging core and competitive Atlantic Division, they narrowly miss the playoffs more likely than not.”

Will the Ottawa Senators make the NHL Playoffs?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-16✓ CorrectBrier: 0.078

“The Senators have been building toward playoff contention with young talent maturing. By April 2026, they are likely in a strong position to compete for an Eastern Conference playoff spot, though not guaranteed.”

Will the Winnipeg Jets make the NHL Playoffs?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-16✗ WrongBrier: 0.902

“The Winnipeg Jets have been a strong team in recent seasons, consistently competing for playoff spots. With the resolution date just days away and the regular season ending mid-April, they are very likely already clinched or virtually assured a playoff berth.”

Will the Columbus Blue Jackets make the NHL Playoffs?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-16✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203

“Columbus has been a rebuilding team but showed improvement in 2025-26. With the season nearly over by April 12, they are likely on the bubble but slightly more likely to miss than make it.”

Will the Seattle Kraken make the NHL Playoffs?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-16✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122

“The Kraken have been a bubble team in recent seasons. With only days left before the resolution date, if they haven't clinched, they likely missed. Seattle has struggled for consistency and the Western Conference is very competitive.”

Will Argentina’s monthly inflation in March 2026 be 3.7% or higher?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-14✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122

“Argentina's inflation has been trending downward significantly under Milei's stabilization program. Monthly rates fell from ~25% in late 2023 to around 2-3% by early 2026. March 2026 reaching 3.7% would represent a reversal of the disinflationary trend, which is possible but not ”

Will Argentina’s monthly inflation in March 2026 be between 3.1% and 3.3%?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-14✓ CorrectBrier: 0.063

“Argentina's inflation has been on a downward trend under Milei's stabilization efforts. By March 2026, monthly inflation likely fell below 3.1% given the trajectory from ~2-3% range in late 2025/early 2026. The 3.1-3.3% window is narrow, reducing probability further.”

Will Cade Cunningham lead the NBA in points during the 2025–26 NBA season?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-12✓ CorrectBrier: 0.002

“Cade Cunningham is a rising star but leading the NBA in total points requires elite volume and durability. Players like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Luka Doncic, and others are more likely candidates. Cunningham leading is possible but unlikely.”

Will the Democratic Coalition (DK) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-12✓ CorrectBrier: 0.001

“Fidesz has dominated Hungarian politics since 2010 with supermajorities. DK, led by Gyurcsány, is deeply unpopular and polls far behind Fidesz and even behind newer opposition forces like TISZA. Virtually no chance DK wins the most seats.”

Will the Indiana Pacers have the worst record in the NBA?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-12✓ CorrectBrier: 0.006

“The Pacers have been a competitive playoff-caliber team in recent seasons. Teams like the Wizards, Trail Blazers, or other rebuilding squads are far more likely to have the worst record. Very unlikely Indiana finishes last.”

Will the Orlando Magic make the NBA Playoffs?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-12✓ CorrectBrier: 0.032

“The Magic made the playoffs in 2024 and 2025, and have a strong young core led by Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner. Despite injury concerns, they are likely a playoff team in the East again for 2025-26.”

Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 0-3%?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-12✓ CorrectBrier: 0.063

“Tisza (led by Péter Magyar) has been polling strongly against Fidesz, but outcomes range from a narrow Fidesz win to a larger Tisza lead. A 0-3% Tisza win is one of several plausible scenarios but not the most likely single band.”

Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2025–2026 NBA Pacific Division?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-12✓ CorrectBrier: 0.032

“The Suns have aging stars (KD, Booker, Beal) and limited depth. The Warriors, Clippers, Kings, and Lakers all compete in the Pacific. Phoenix's roster construction and flexibility issues make them unlikely division winners, though star talent keeps them in contention.”

Will Mikal Bridges lead the NBA in steals during the 2025–26 NBA season?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-12✓ CorrectBrier: 0.001

“Mikal Bridges has never led the NBA in steals and typically averages around 1.0-1.3 SPG. Players like De'Aaron Fox, Davion Mitchell, or others are far more likely candidates. Very unlikely he leads the league.”

Will Kawhi Leonard lead the NBA in steals during the 2025–26 NBA season?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-12✓ CorrectBrier: 0.000

“Kawhi Leonard has been plagued by chronic knee injuries and has barely played in recent seasons. He is extremely unlikely to play enough games to lead the NBA in steals for 2025-26.”

Will Jalen Williams lead the NBA in points during the 2025–26 NBA season?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-12✓ CorrectBrier: 0.004

“Jalen Williams is a rising star but leading the NBA in total points requires elite volume scoring. Players like Shai, Luka, Tatum, Giannis are more likely. JWill's role alongside SGA limits his scoring volume enough to make this unlikely.”

Will Tisza win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?

Apr 12 · Ends 2026-04-12✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203

“Tisza (led by Péter Magyar) has surged in polls throughout 2025, often polling neck-and-neck or ahead of Fidesz on national lists. However, Fidesz retains institutional advantages and mobilization capacity. Slight edge to Tisza given polling trends, but uncertainty remains high.”

Will Karl-Anthony Towns lead the NBA in rebounds during the 2025–26 NBA season?

Apr 11 · Ends 2026-04-12✓ CorrectBrier: 0.006

“KAT is a strong rebounder but historically hasn't led the league in total rebounds. Players like Gobert, Sabonis, or others typically lead. Without specific 2025-26 data, his chances are low but nonzero.”

Will Donovan Clingan lead the NBA in rebounds during the 2025–26 NBA season?

Apr 11 · Ends 2026-04-12✓ CorrectBrier: 0.001

“Clingan is a promising young center but leading the NBA in rebounds as a sophomore is extremely unlikely. Established stars like Gobert, Sabonis, or others typically dominate this category. Even with increased minutes, it's a very long shot.”

Will Fidesz-KDNP win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 6-9%?

Apr 11 · Ends 2026-04-12✓ CorrectBrier: 0.040

“Fidesz-KDNP has historically won by larger margins (2022: ~6%, 2018: ~29%, 2014: ~19%). Current polling suggests either a closer race with TISZA or a wider Fidesz lead. A 6-9% margin is possible but not the most likely outcome band.”

Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2025–2026 NHL Presidents' Trophy?

Apr 11 · Ends 2026-04-20✓ CorrectBrier: 0.000

“The Penguins have been a middling-to-below-average team in recent seasons, missing the playoffs. With an aging core and no major improvements, they are extremely unlikely to finish with the best regular-season record in the NHL.”

Will Fidesz-KDNP win 85-99 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?

Apr 11 · Ends 2026-04-12✓ CorrectBrier: 0.014

Will Jordan Poole lead the NBA in points during the 2025–26 NBA season?

Apr 11 · Ends 2026-04-12✓ CorrectBrier: 0.000

“Jordan Poole has never been close to leading the NBA in scoring. Elite scorers like Luka, SGA, Giannis, Tatum consistently dominate. Poole lacks the volume and efficiency to lead the league in points.”

Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander lead the NBA in assists during the 2025–26 NBA season?

Apr 11 · Ends 2026-04-12✓ CorrectBrier: 0.002

“SGA is a scoring-first guard, not typically among league assist leaders. Players like Haliburton, Trae Young, or Jokic are far more likely to lead in APG. SGA has never been close to leading the league in assists.”

Will Cuiabá EC win on 2026-04-12?

Apr 11 · Ends 2026-04-12✓ CorrectBrier: 0.090

“Cuiabá EC likely playing away against Juventude in Brasileirão Série B. Away wins are less common, and without strong form indicators, estimating ~30% win probability.”

Will EC Juventude vs. Cuiabá EC end in a draw?

Apr 11 · Ends 2026-04-12✗ WrongBrier: 0.518

“Draws occur in roughly 25-30% of Brazilian Serie B matches. Juventude playing at home likely has a slight edge, making a draw less probable than a decisive result.”

Will EC Juventude win on 2026-04-12?

Apr 11 · Ends 2026-04-12✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122

“Without specific match details, Juventude playing likely in Brasileirão Série B. Home/away unknown but win probability for mid-table teams typically around 30-40%. Against Cuiabá, slight uncertainty favors ~35%.”

Will San Jose Earthquakes win on 2026-04-11?

Apr 11 · Ends 2026-04-12✗ WrongBrier: 0.563

“San Jose Earthquakes have historically been one of the weaker MLS teams in recent years. Playing away at Sporting KC further reduces their chances. Estimating ~25% win probability.”

Will Minnesota United FC win on 2026-04-11?

Apr 11 · Ends 2026-04-12✗ WrongBrier: 0.422

“Without specific match details, MLS home win rates are ~45% and away ~25%. Minnesota United is a mid-table team; base rate for any single match win is roughly 35%.”

Will CF Monterrey win on 2026-04-11?

Apr 11 · Ends 2026-04-12✓ CorrectBrier: 0.160

“Without specific match details, Monterrey is a strong Mexican club but winning any single match is uncertain. Home matches favor them (~50%), away less so. Defaulting to slightly below 50% given uncertainty about opponent and venue.”

US x Iran meeting by April 14, 2026?

Apr 11 · Ends 2026-04-14✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022

“As of early April 2026, multiple rounds of US-Iran talks have occurred (in Oman and elsewhere) regarding nuclear negotiations. Direct or indirect meetings have already taken place, making resolution YES highly likely by April 14.”

Will Pascal Siakam lead the NBA in points during the 2025–26 NBA season?

Apr 11 · Ends 2026-04-12✓ CorrectBrier: 0.000

“Pascal Siakam is a strong player but has never been the NBA's leading scorer. Players like Luka Doncic, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and others are far more likely to lead the league in total points. Siakam leading is extremely unlikely.”

Will Donovan Mitchell lead the NBA in three pointers made during the 2025–26 NBA season?

Apr 11 · Ends 2026-04-12✓ CorrectBrier: 0.006

“Mitchell is a high-volume 3PT shooter but historically hasn't led the league. Players like Hield, Curry, or others typically lead. Without specific 2025-26 data showing him atop the leaderboard, the base rate for any single player leading is low.”

Will Draymond Green lead the NBA in assists during the 2025–26 NBA season?

Apr 11 · Ends 2026-04-12✓ CorrectBrier: 0.000

“Draymond Green has never been close to leading the NBA in assists. He averages around 5-6 APG, far below elite playmakers like Haliburton, Trae Young, or Jokic who typically lead. Essentially impossible.”

US x Iran meeting by April 13, 2026?

Apr 11 · Ends 2026-04-13✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022

“As of early April 2026, US-Iran nuclear talks have been ongoing with multiple rounds of meetings reported. Direct or indirect meetings between US and Iranian officials have occurred in the context of nuclear negotiations, making resolution YES highly likely by April 13.”

Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?

Apr 11 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.006

“Apple, Microsoft, and Nvidia have consistently held the top market cap positions, each well above $2.5T. Saudi Aramco (~$1.7-1.8T) would need an extraordinary surge or massive tech crash to overtake them by April 30, 2026. Very unlikely.”

Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 110 seats?

Apr 11 · Ends 2026-04-12✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122

“Hungary's next election is in 2026. Fidesz-KDNP won 135 seats in 2022, but opposition consolidation under Péter Magyar's Tisza party poses a serious challenge. Polls show a competitive race, making 110+ seats uncertain but possible given Fidesz's structural advantages.”

Will Analilia Mejia win the NJ-11 special election?

Apr 11 · Ends 2026-04-16✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022

“NJ-11 is a solidly Democratic district (D+10). Analilia Mejia is the Democratic nominee in the special election. In a deep blue district, the Democratic candidate is heavily favored to win.”

Will San Diego FC win on 2026-04-11?

Apr 11 · Ends 2026-04-12✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122

“San Diego FC is a new MLS expansion team in 2025/2026. Expansion teams typically struggle, and winning any single match is less likely than not. Home/away unknown, but base rate for any team winning a given match is ~35-45%.”

Will Tisza win 120-129 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?

Apr 11 · Ends 2026-04-12✓ CorrectBrier: 0.005

“120-129 seats requires Tisza to dominate both list and district votes. While Tisza polls well, Fidesz's structural advantages make this specific narrow range unlikely. Tisza more likely wins fewer seats or a different range.”

Will Fidesz-KDNP win 36-40% of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election?

Apr 11 · Ends 2026-04-12✗ WrongBrier: 0.563

“Fidesz-KDNP historically polls well above 40% in elections (49% in 2022, 44% in 2018). Even with opposition consolidation under Tisza, most polls show them either above 40% or below 36%. Landing exactly in 36-40% is possible but not the most likely range.”

Will Andrew Nembhard lead the NBA in assists during the 2025–26 NBA season?

Apr 11 · Ends 2026-04-12✓ CorrectBrier: 0.001

“Nembhard is a solid young guard but not typically among the league's top assist leaders. Players like Haliburton, Trae Young, Luka, or Jokic are far more likely to lead the NBA in assists. Very unlikely Nembhard leads.”

Will GERB-SDS (GERB–SDS) win the most seats in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?

Apr 11 · Ends 2026-04-19✗ WrongBrier: 0.846

“GERB-SDS has been the leading party in every Bulgarian election since 2009. Polls consistently show them ahead. Despite political fragmentation, no rival coalition is close to overtaking them in seat count.”

Will Devin Booker lead the NBA in points during the 2025–26 NBA season?

Apr 11 · Ends 2026-04-12✓ CorrectBrier: 0.004

“Booker is a top scorer but historically hasn't led the league in total points. Players like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Luka Doncic, or Jayson Tatum are more likely leaders. With the season nearly over, if Booker were leading it would likely be known, but this is unlikely given comp”

Will T.J. Parker be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft?

Apr 11 · Ends 2026-04-25✗ WrongBrier: 0.302

“T.J. Parker (Penn State DE) is widely projected as the top prospect in the 2026 draft. While other candidates like Tetairoa McMillan or Cameron Ward exist, Parker's elite pass-rushing profile makes him the frontrunner for #1 overall.”

US x Iran meeting by April 12, 2026?

Apr 11 · Ends 2026-04-12✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022

“As of early April 2026, multiple rounds of US-Iran talks have occurred in Oman regarding nuclear issues. Direct or indirect meetings between US and Iranian officials have been reported, making resolution highly likely by April 12.”

Will the Philadelphia 76ers win more than 43.5 regular season games in 2025–26?

Apr 11 · Ends 2026-04-12✗ WrongBrier: 0.563

“The 76ers have struggled with injuries (especially Embiid) and roster chemistry issues throughout 2024-25 and likely into 2025-26. Their underperformance makes exceeding 43.5 wins unlikely, though not impossible if healthy.”

Will Jake Knapp win the 2026 Masters tournament?

Apr 11 · Ends 2026-04-13✓ CorrectBrier: 0.004

“Jake Knapp is a relatively young PGA Tour player without major wins. While he may be in contention, the Masters field is deep with top players like Scheffler, McIlroy, etc. Any single golfer winning a major is low probability, and Knapp is not among the favorites.”

Will Barcelona reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal?

Apr 11 · Ends 2026-05-07✗ WrongBrier: 0.270

Will Bologna reach the UEFA Europa League semifinal?

Apr 11 · Ends 2026-05-08✓ CorrectBrier: 0.006

“Bologna lacks European pedigree and depth. While competitive in Serie A, reaching the UEL semis requires beating multiple strong opponents across knockout rounds, which is unlikely for a team with limited continental experience.”

Will Tisza win at least 90 seats?

Apr 11 · Ends 2026-04-12✗ WrongBrier: 0.563

“Hungary's electoral system heavily favors Fidesz through gerrymandering and mixed-member rules. Even with strong Tisza polling, converting support into 90+ seats (out of 199) is very difficult for an opposition party given structural advantages for the incumbent.”

Will Sam Leavitt be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft?

Apr 11 · Ends 2026-04-25✓ CorrectBrier: 0.014

“Sam Leavitt is a promising QB prospect but faces stiff competition from other top QBs and edge rushers. Historically, the #1 pick favors consensus top prospects, and Leavitt is not the clear frontrunner in most mock drafts as of early April 2026.”

U.S. evacuates Baghdad Embassy by April 30?

Apr 11 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.003

“No credible reports of imminent Baghdad Embassy evacuation as of April 2026. The US maintains a large diplomatic presence in Iraq and while tensions exist, a full evacuation within 19 days is very unlikely without a major crisis escalation.”

Will Miller Moss be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft?

Apr 11 · Ends 2026-04-25✓ CorrectBrier: 0.006

“Miller Moss is not considered a top QB prospect for the 2026 draft. Other QBs like Shedeur Sanders or Cam Ward (if eligible) and other top prospects are far more likely to go #1. Moss lacks the elite ceiling teams seek at #1 overall.”

Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 2.5% and 3.0%?

Apr 11 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022

“Q1 2026 GDP growth is highly uncertain due to tariff impacts and trade policy disruptions. Many forecasters expect either a significant slowdown or contraction, making the 2.5-3.0% range less likely than usual. The narrow band further reduces probability.”

Will Cameron Smith win the 2026 Masters tournament?

Apr 11 · Ends 2026-04-13✓ CorrectBrier: 0.001

“Cameron Smith is a talented golfer but the Masters field is deep. Any individual golfer winning a specific major has roughly 1-5% probability. Smith's LIV status may affect his form/preparation. No strong signals suggest he's the favorite.”

Will Robert MacIntyre win the 2026 Masters tournament?

Apr 11 · Ends 2026-04-13✓ CorrectBrier: 0.001

“Robert MacIntyre is a talented young golfer but winning the Masters is extremely difficult. With a large field of elite competitors, any single player's probability is low. No strong signals suggest he's the frontrunner for 2026.”

Will Andrew Novak win the 2026 Masters tournament?

Apr 11 · Ends 2026-04-13✓ CorrectBrier: 0.000

“Andrew Novak is not among the top favorites for the 2026 Masters. He's a lower-ranked PGA Tour player with no major wins. The field includes many elite golfers far more likely to win.”

US x Iran meeting by April 30, 2026?

Apr 11 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.010

“As of early April 2026, multiple rounds of US-Iran indirect and direct talks on nuclear issues have been reported. Given the active diplomatic engagement and Trump administration's stated interest in a deal, a meeting by April 30 is highly likely and may have already occurred.”

Will voter turnout be 77–80% in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?

Apr 11 · Ends 2026-04-12✗ WrongBrier: 0.922

“77-80% turnout would be far above any modern Hungarian election (max ~70.5% in 2002). Even with strong opposition mobilization via TISZA/Magyar, such a jump is historically unprecedented.”

Will voter turnout be 71–74% in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?

Apr 11 · Ends 2026-04-12✓ CorrectBrier: 0.090

“Hungarian turnout in 2022 was ~69.5%, 2018 ~70.2%, 2014 ~61.7%. A 71-74% range is possible but slightly above recent trends. Competitive elections could boost turnout, but hitting exactly this narrow band is uncertain. I estimate ~30% probability.”

Will Jakob Poeltl lead the NBA in rebounds during the 2025–26 NBA season?

Apr 11 · Ends 2026-04-12✓ CorrectBrier: 0.002

“Poeltl is a solid rebounder but has never led the NBA in rebounds. Players like Domantas Sabonis, Rudy Gobert, or others are far more likely leaders. Very unlikely Poeltl tops the league.”

Will Anthony Davis lead the NBA in rebounds during the 2025–26 NBA season?

Apr 11 · Ends 2026-04-12✓ CorrectBrier: 0.014

“Anthony Davis is an elite rebounder but historically hasn't led the NBA in total rebounds. Players like Domantas Sabonis, Nikola Jokic, or others typically lead. AD's injury history also reduces his chances of accumulating enough games.”

Will Cam Thomas lead the NBA in points during the 2025–26 NBA season?

Apr 11 · Ends 2026-04-12✓ CorrectBrier: 0.090

“Cam Thomas emerged as a top scorer in 2024-25 but faces stiff competition from Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Luka Doncic, and others. Leading the league in total points requires both high PPG and games played. Possible but not the most likely outcome.”

Will Moussa Diabate lead the NBA in rebounds during the 2025–26 NBA season?

Apr 11 · Ends 2026-04-12✓ CorrectBrier: 0.000

“Moussa Diabate is a young, relatively unestablished player who has not been a significant contributor in rebounds. Leading the NBA in rebounds requires elite production, typically from stars like Gobert, Sabonis, or similar. Extremely unlikely.”

Will TISZA win 50-54% of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election?

Apr 11 · Ends 2026-04-12✗ WrongBrier: 0.563

“TISZA has polled strongly but consistently achieving exactly 50-54% is a narrow band. Polls show them competitive but Fidesz retains significant support. Hitting this precise range is possible but not the most likely single outcome.”

Will Jordan Poole lead the NBA in steals during the 2025–26 NBA season?

Apr 11 · Ends 2026-04-12✓ CorrectBrier: 0.000

“Jordan Poole has never been known as a steals leader and has not been among the league leaders in steals per game in any season. Players like De'Aaron Fox, OG Anunoby, or other defensive specialists are far more likely to lead. Essentially no chance Poole leads.”

Will Isaiah Collier lead the NBA in assists during the 2025–26 NBA season?

Apr 11 · Ends 2026-04-12✓ CorrectBrier: 0.000

“Isaiah Collier is a young player unlikely to lead the NBA in assists. Established stars like Haliburton, Young, or Doncic typically lead. Rookies/sophomores almost never lead the league in assists.”

Will Jalen Brunson lead the NBA in assists during the 2025–26 NBA season?

Apr 11 · Ends 2026-04-12✓ CorrectBrier: 0.006

“Brunson is a strong playmaker but historically hasn't led the league in assists. Players like Haliburton, Trae Young, or others are more likely leaders. Without specific 2025-26 data, his chances are low.”

Will Amen Thompson lead the NBA in rebounds during the 2025–26 NBA season?

Apr 11 · Ends 2026-04-12✓ CorrectBrier: 0.003

“Amen Thompson is a young guard/wing, not typically a rebounding leader. The NBA rebounding title usually goes to elite big men. Even with improvement, it's very unlikely he leads the league in rebounds by season's end.”

Will Kristaps Porzingis lead the NBA in three pointers made during the 2025–26 NBA season?

Apr 11 · Ends 2026-04-12✓ CorrectBrier: 0.000

“Porzingis is not a high-volume 3-point shooter compared to guards like Hield, Curry, or Tatum. He typically makes ~2 threes/game, far below league leaders who hit 3-4+. Extremely unlikely he leads the NBA in 3PM.”

Will Jarrett Allen lead the NBA in rebounds during the 2025–26 NBA season?

Apr 11 · Ends 2026-04-12✓ CorrectBrier: 0.004

“Jarrett Allen is a good rebounder but rarely leads the league. Players like Domantas Sabonis, Rudy Gobert, or others typically dominate. Allen averaging ~10-11 RPG makes leading unlikely.”

Will Tyrese Maxey lead the NBA in steals during the 2025–26 NBA season?

Apr 11 · Ends 2026-04-12✓ CorrectBrier: 0.001

“Tyrese Maxey is not known as a steals leader. He has never led the NBA in steals and typically averages around 1.0-1.2 SPG. Players like De'Aaron Fox or guards with higher steal rates are far more likely to lead. Very unlikely.”

Will Alex Caruso lead the NBA in steals during the 2025–26 NBA season?

Apr 11 · Ends 2026-04-12✓ CorrectBrier: 0.014

“Caruso is elite defensively but rarely leads the league in steals per game. Other players like De'Aaron Fox or guards with higher usage tend to lead. With one day left, if he were leading it would likely be known, but historically this is unlikely.”

Will Sam Hauser lead the NBA in three pointers made during the 2025–26 NBA season?

Apr 11 · Ends 2026-04-12✓ CorrectBrier: 0.002

“Sam Hauser is a strong 3-point shooter but lacks the volume of elite leaders like Steph Curry, Buddy Hield, or other high-usage shooters. Leading the NBA in 3PM requires both accuracy and very high attempt volume, which Hauser's role typically doesn't provide.”

Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 60 seats?

Apr 11 · Ends 2026-04-12✗ WrongBrier: 0.941

“Fidesz-KDNP has dominated Hungarian elections, winning 133 seats in 2022. Even with declining support, they remain the strongest party and 60 seats (out of 199) is a very low bar. Polls consistently show them well above this threshold.”

Will Mark Williams lead the NBA in rebounds during the 2025–26 NBA season?

Apr 11 · Ends 2026-04-12✓ CorrectBrier: 0.002

“Mark Williams is a solid rebounder but unlikely to lead the NBA in total rebounds. Players like Domantas Sabonis, Nikola Jokic, or Rudy Gobert are far more likely candidates given their track records and usage.”

Will Brice Sensabaugh lead the NBA in three pointers made during the 2025–26 NBA season?

Apr 11 · Ends 2026-04-12✓ CorrectBrier: 0.000

“Brice Sensabaugh is a young player without the volume or efficiency to lead the NBA in three-pointers made. Elite shooters like Curry, Hield, or other established veterans typically lead this category. Extremely unlikely for Sensabaugh.”

Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 70 seats?

Apr 11 · Ends 2026-04-12✗ WrongBrier: 0.846

“Fidesz-KDNP won 135 seats in 2022 and remains the dominant party in Hungary. Even with declining support, winning 70+ seats (out of 199) is highly likely given their strong base, rural dominance, and electoral system advantages.”

Will América FC win on 2026-04-11?

Apr 11 · Ends 2026-04-11✓ CorrectBrier: 0.160

“América FC playing likely in Brasileirão Série B. Without specific form data, home/away info, or opponent details, base rate for any team winning a single match is around 35-45%. Slight uncertainty leans toward not winning.”

Will FC Machida Zelvia win on 2026-04-11?

Apr 11 · Ends 2026-04-11✗ WrongBrier: 0.422

“FC Machida Zelvia is a mid-to-lower table J1 League team. Without specific match details, home/away advantage, or opponent info, baseline win probability for such a team in any given match is around 30-40%. Slightly below coin flip.”

Will Bohemians Praha 1905 win on 2026-04-11?

Apr 11 · Ends 2026-04-11✗ WrongBrier: 0.490

“Bohemians Praha 1905 are typically a mid-to-lower table Czech First League team. Without specific opponent info, their baseline win probability in any given match is around 30%, reflecting home/away uncertainty and general league standing.”

Will voter turnout be 80%+ in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?

Apr 11 · Ends 2026-04-12✓ CorrectBrier: 0.014

“Hungarian parliamentary elections have historically seen turnout around 65-70%. The 2022 election had ~69.5% turnout, the highest in recent cycles. Reaching 80% would be unprecedented in modern Hungarian history and would require extraordinary mobilization.”

Will FC Juárez win on 2026-04-10?

Apr 11 · Ends 2026-04-11✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122

“FC Juárez has generally been a mid-to-lower table team in Liga MX. Without specific match details, their win probability in any given match is typically around 30-40%. Defaulting to ~35% as a reasonable estimate.”

Will West Bromwich Albion FC vs. Millwall FC end in a draw?

Apr 11 · Ends 2026-04-11✗ WrongBrier: 0.548

“Draws occur in roughly 23-28% of EFL Championship matches. WBA at home are typically slight favorites, making a draw somewhat less likely than a home win but still possible. Using base rate ~26%.”

Will Melbourne Victory FC win on 2026-04-11?

Apr 11 · Ends 2026-04-11✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122

“Melbourne Victory's win probability on any given match day is typically around 35-40% depending on opponent and form. Without specific match details, a slight lean toward not winning is reasonable.”

Will Fidesz-KDNP win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 9%+?

Apr 10 · Ends 2026-04-12✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203

“Fidesz-KDNP has historically won by large margins (2018: ~29%, 2022: ~6%). Recent polls show Fidesz leading but opposition consolidation under Tisza/Magyar Péter has narrowed the gap. A 9%+ margin is plausible but not certain given stronger opposition this cycle.”

Will Club Puebla win on 2026-04-10?

Apr 10 · Ends 2026-04-11✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122

“Club Puebla has generally been a mid-to-lower table team in Liga MX. Without specific opponent info, home/away status, or current form, a win probability around 35% reflects typical match odds for such a team.”

Will Yokohama F·Marinos win on 2026-04-11?

Apr 10 · Ends 2026-04-11✓ CorrectBrier: 0.160

“Yokohama F·Marinos are a strong J1 League team but winning any single match is uncertain. Home/away status and opponent unknown, but typical win probability for a top-tier J1 team in a given match is around 35-45%.”

Will the Virginia redistricting referendum pass?

Apr 10 · Ends 2026-04-21✓ CorrectBrier: 0.003

“Virginia's redistricting referendum (Amendment 1) was on the November 2020 ballot and passed with ~66% of the vote. Since this already happened, the probability is very high it resolves YES.”

Will Millwall FC win on 2026-04-11?

Apr 10 · Ends 2026-04-11✓ CorrectBrier: 0.048

“Millwall are away at West Brom, who are typically strong at home in the Championship. Millwall's away win probability is relatively low, around 20-25%.”

Will Leicester City FC win on 2026-04-11?

Apr 10 · Ends 2026-04-11✓ CorrectBrier: 0.160

“Leicester City vs Swansea in the EFL Championship. Leicester are likely a stronger side but away/home context unknown. Typical win probability for a favored team in a single match is around 40-45%. Without clear home advantage info, estimating ~40%.”

Will West Bromwich Albion FC win on 2026-04-11?

Apr 10 · Ends 2026-04-11✓ CorrectBrier: 0.176

“WBA vs Millwall in EFL Championship. WBA are typically competitive but winning any single match is uncertain. Home/away status unclear. Base rate for a mid-table Championship team winning a specific match is around 40-45%.”

Will Elon Musk post 1120-1159 tweets in April 2026?

Apr 10 · Ends 2026-05-01✓ CorrectBrier: 0.003

US x Iran meeting by April 11, 2026?

Apr 10 · Ends 2026-04-11✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022

“As of early April 2026, multiple rounds of US-Iran talks have occurred in Oman regarding nuclear issues. Direct or indirect meetings between US and Iranian officials have been reported in 2025-2026, making it highly likely at least one meeting occurred before April 11, 2026.”

Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 100 seats?

Apr 10 · Ends 2026-04-12✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203

“Fidesz-KDNP won 135 seats in 2022 but faces stronger opposition from Tisza Party led by Péter Magyar. Polls suggest a tighter race, making 100+ seats uncertain but still plausible given Fidesz's structural advantages in single-member districts.”

Will Fidesz-KDNP win 100-114 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?

Apr 10 · Ends 2026-04-12✓ CorrectBrier: 0.048

Will Auckland FC vs. Melbourne Victory FC end in a draw?

Apr 10 · Ends 2026-04-11✗ WrongBrier: 0.563

“Draws occur in roughly 20-25% of A-League matches. Without specific form data favoring a draw, the base rate suggests a non-draw outcome is more likely.”

Will Queens Park Rangers FC win on 2026-04-11?

Apr 10 · Ends 2026-04-11✓ CorrectBrier: 0.090

“QPR are typically a mid-to-lower table Championship side. Home or away, winning any single match is roughly 30-40%. Without knowing opponent or form details precisely, ~30% is reasonable.”

Will Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Shanghai Haigang FC end in a draw?

Apr 10 · Ends 2026-04-11✓ CorrectBrier: 0.063

“Shanghai derbies tend to be competitive but draws occur roughly 25% of the time in Chinese Super League matches. Both teams are strong, but a decisive result is more likely than a draw.”

Will Kyōto Sanga FC win on 2026-04-11?

Apr 10 · Ends 2026-04-11✗ WrongBrier: 0.490

“Kyōto Sanga FC have historically been a lower-mid table J1 League team. Without knowing the specific opponent or venue, a baseline win probability around 30% is reasonable for an average J1 match.”

Will Henan FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC end in a draw?

Apr 10 · Ends 2026-04-11✓ CorrectBrier: 0.078

“Draws occur in roughly 25-30% of Chinese Super League matches. Shandong Taishan is typically stronger than Henan, making a draw slightly less likely than average but still possible.”

Will Gwangju FC vs. Bucheon FC 1995 end in a draw?

Apr 10 · Ends 2026-04-11✓ CorrectBrier: 0.078

“Draws in K League 2 occur roughly 20-30% of the time. Without specific form data for this future match, I estimate around 28% chance of a draw, making a decisive result more likely.”

Will Stoke City FC win on 2026-04-11?

Apr 10 · Ends 2026-04-11✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122

“Stoke City in the Championship are a mid-table side. Any single match win probability is roughly 30-40% depending on opponent and venue. Without specific opponent/venue info, ~35% is reasonable.”

Will Oxford United FC win on 2026-04-11?

Apr 10 · Ends 2026-04-11✗ WrongBrier: 0.563

“Oxford United are in the Championship and face Watford. Home/away unknown but typical win probability for a mid-table Championship side in any given match is around 25-35%. Oxford have generally been in the lower half, making a win less likely than not.”

Will Hull City AFC win on 2026-04-11?

Apr 10 · Ends 2026-04-11✓ CorrectBrier: 0.090

“Hull City in the EFL Championship typically wins around 30-35% of matches. Without specific opponent info, a baseline win probability of ~30% is reasonable for a mid-table Championship side.”

Will Southampton FC win on 2026-04-11?

Apr 10 · Ends 2026-04-11✗ WrongBrier: 0.302

“Southampton vs Derby County in the EFL Championship. Southampton likely favored at home but not overwhelmingly so. Derby are a mid-table side capable of getting results. Home advantage gives Southampton an edge but not enough for >50% win probability.”

Will Coventry City FC win on 2026-04-11?

Apr 10 · Ends 2026-04-11✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122

“Coventry City in the Championship typically wins around 35-40% of home matches and less away. Without knowing the opponent or venue, a baseline win probability of ~35% is reasonable.”

Will Epstein Data Set 13 be released by April 30?

Apr 10 · Ends 2026-04-30✗ WrongBrier: 0.270

“Epstein document releases have been proceeding sequentially with political/public pressure. Close to deadline with 20 days remaining. Slight lean toward release given ongoing momentum, but delays are common in legal document releases.”

Will Stoke City FC vs. Blackburn Rovers FC end in a draw?

Apr 10 · Ends 2026-04-11✗ WrongBrier: 0.548

“Draws occur in roughly 23-27% of EFL Championship matches. Stoke at home may have a slight edge, but without specific form data, I'll estimate near the base rate for draws at ~26%.”

Will Portsmouth FC win on 2026-04-11?

Apr 10 · Ends 2026-04-11✗ WrongBrier: 0.518

“Portsmouth FC in the EFL Championship have been struggling. Away matches at Middlesbrough are tough. Typical away win probability for a lower-table team is around 25-30%.”

Will Middlesbrough FC vs. Portsmouth FC end in a draw?

Apr 10 · Ends 2026-04-11✓ CorrectBrier: 0.063

“Draws occur in roughly 23-27% of EFL Championship matches. Middlesbrough at home are typically favored, making a draw slightly less likely than average but still plausible.”

Will Birmingham City FC vs. Wrexham AFC end in a draw?

Apr 10 · Ends 2026-04-11✓ CorrectBrier: 0.063

“Draws occur in roughly 20-27% of EFL Championship matches. Birmingham City at home are likely favored, reducing draw probability slightly. Estimating ~25% chance of a draw.”

Will Charlton Athletic FC win on 2026-04-11?

Apr 10 · Ends 2026-04-11✓ CorrectBrier: 0.144

“Charlton Athletic in League One/ELC typically win around 35-40% of home matches. Without specific form data, a moderate estimate of 0.38 reflects baseline win probability for a mid-table side.”

Will Birmingham City FC win on 2026-04-11?

Apr 10 · Ends 2026-04-11✗ WrongBrier: 0.302

“Birmingham City FC are strong contenders in the EFL Championship but away matches against any opponent carry uncertainty. Without knowing exact form and venue details, a slight lean toward not winning given typical match outcome distributions.”

Will Middlesbrough FC win on 2026-04-11?

Apr 10 · Ends 2026-04-11✓ CorrectBrier: 0.144

“Middlesbrough vs Portsmouth in the EFL Championship. Boro at home are decent but not dominant. Championship home win rates ~40-45%. Portsmouth likely fighting relegation, but Boro winning is not the most likely single outcome.”

Will FC Seoul vs. Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors FC end in a draw?

Apr 10 · Ends 2026-04-11✓ CorrectBrier: 0.078

“K League matches end in draws roughly 25-30% of the time. FC Seoul vs Jeonbuk is a high-profile rivalry where decisive results are common, but without specific 2026 form data, I estimate around 28% draw probability.”

Will the match end in a draw?

Apr 10 · Ends 2026-04-11✓ CorrectBrier: 0.063

“Without specific match details, draws in competitive football/soccer typically occur ~25% of the time. Most matches have a decisive winner.”

Will Tisza win 110–119 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?

Apr 10 · Ends 2026-04-12✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022

Will Russia capture Sofiivka by April 30?

Apr 10 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.014

“Sofiivka is a small settlement likely in contested Donetsk/Zaporizhzhia area. Russia's advance has been slow and grinding. With only 20 days left and no reports of imminent capture, probability remains low but nonzero given ongoing offensive operations.”

Will V-Varen Nagasaki win on 2026-04-11?

Apr 10 · Ends 2026-04-11✓ CorrectBrier: 0.090

“V-Varen Nagasaki are typically a lower-mid table J-League team. Without knowing the specific opponent or venue, a win probability around 30% reflects their general strength level in the league.”

Will Avispa Fukuoka win on 2026-04-11?

Apr 10 · Ends 2026-04-11✗ WrongBrier: 0.422

“Without specific match details, Avispa Fukuoka as a mid-to-lower J1 League team has roughly a 30-35% chance of winning any given match. Home/away status and opponent unknown but base rate suggests under 50%.”

Will the match end in a draw?

Apr 10 · Ends 2026-04-11✓ CorrectBrier: 0.063

“Most competitive matches do not end in draws. Without specific context on the teams/sport, draws typically occur ~20-30% of the time in football/soccer. Defaulting to base rate.”

Will FK Dukla Praha win on 2026-04-11?

Apr 10 · Ends 2026-04-11✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122

“Dukla Praha are typically a mid-to-lower table team in the Czech First League. Without knowing the specific opponent or venue, a win probability around 35% reflects their general strength level in the league.”

Will FK Pardubice win on 2026-04-11?

Apr 10 · Ends 2026-04-11✗ WrongBrier: 0.422

“FK Pardubice are typically a mid-to-lower table Czech First League team. Without knowing the specific opponent or home/away status, a win probability around 35% reflects their general strength level in league matches.”

Will Chongqing Tonglianglong FC vs. Wuhan San Zhen FC end in a draw?

Apr 10 · Ends 2026-04-11✓ CorrectBrier: 0.078

“Draws in Chinese football leagues typically occur around 25-30% of the time. Without specific form data, I estimate roughly 28% chance of a draw based on general league averages.”

Will Tromsø IL win on 2026-04-11?

Apr 10 · Ends 2026-04-11✗ WrongBrier: 0.302

“Tromsø IL playing at home in Norwegian Eliteserien early season. Without knowing the exact opponent, home advantage gives them a slight edge, but not enough to exceed 50% given typical match uncertainty. Estimating ~45% win probability.”

Will Henan FC win on 2026-04-11?

Apr 10 · Ends 2026-04-11✓ CorrectBrier: 0.090

“Henan FC is a mid-table Chinese Super League team. Without knowing the specific opponent or venue, a win probability around 30% reflects typical match odds for an average team in any given match.”

Will Auckland FC win on 2026-04-11?

Apr 10 · Ends 2026-04-11✓ CorrectBrier: 0.160

“Auckland FC is a new A-League expansion team in their first season. Without specific match details or opponent info, new expansion teams typically have below-average win rates. Estimating ~40% chance of winning.”

Will the match end in a draw?

Apr 10 · Ends 2026-04-11✓ CorrectBrier: 0.063

“Most competitive matches end with a winner rather than a draw. Without specific context about the teams/sport, draws typically occur ~20-30% of the time in sports like soccer/football.”

Will Newcastle United Jets FC win on 2026-04-11?

Apr 10 · Ends 2026-04-11✓ CorrectBrier: 0.109

“Newcastle Jets are typically a mid-to-lower table A-League team. In any given match, a win probability around 30-35% is reasonable without specific opponent or form info. More likely they draw or lose than win.”

Will Kashiwa Reysol win on 2026-04-11?

Apr 10 · Ends 2026-04-11✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122

“Without specific match details, J1 League home win rates are typically around 40-45%. Kashiwa Reysol has been a mid-table team in recent seasons, so a win probability around 35% is reasonable given uncertainty about opponent and venue.”

Will FC Hradec Králové win on 2026-04-11?

Apr 10 · Ends 2026-04-11✗ WrongBrier: 0.563

“FC Hradec Králové are typically a mid-to-lower table Czech First League team. Without knowing the opponent or venue, away wins are harder. Base rate for any given match win is ~30-35%, likely lower if away. Estimating ~25%.”

Will Saracens win?

Apr 10 · Ends 2026-04-11✓ CorrectBrier: 0.185

“Saracens are a strong European side but likely playing away at Bath, a competitive Premiership team. Away disadvantage slightly reduces their chances.”

Will Wuhan San Zhen FC win on 2026-04-11?

Apr 10 · Ends 2026-04-11✓ CorrectBrier: 0.090

“Wuhan San Zhen FC is a lower-tier Chinese football club. Without specific match details, opponent info, or recent form data, a win probability around 30% reflects typical uncertainty for mid-to-lower level teams in any given match.”

Will FK Teplice win on 2026-04-11?

Apr 10 · Ends 2026-04-11✓ CorrectBrier: 0.090

“FK Teplice are typically a mid-to-lower table Czech First League team. Without knowing the opponent or venue, base rate for winning any single match is around 30-35%. Defaulting to ~0.30 given their general standing.”

Will Western Sydney Wanderers FC vs. Sydney FC end in a draw?

Apr 10 · Ends 2026-04-11✓ CorrectBrier: 0.068

“A-League derbies between WSW and Sydney FC tend to be competitive, but draws occur in roughly 25% of matches. Both teams usually play to win in derby fixtures, making a decisive result more likely.”

Will Club León FC win on 2026-04-10?

Apr 10 · Ends 2026-04-11✗ WrongBrier: 0.360

“León playing Puebla likely in Liga MX. Without specific current form data, home/away info, or standings, a single match win probability for any team is typically around 35-45%. Estimating ~40% for León to win.”

Will FC Utrecht win on 2026-04-11?

Apr 10 · Ends 2026-04-11✓ CorrectBrier: 0.250

“FC Utrecht playing at home vs Telstar (likely Eredivisie match). Utrecht is typically a mid-to-upper table Eredivisie team. Without specific current form data, home advantage and general strength suggest roughly even-to-favorable odds, estimating ~50%.”

Will Sydney FC win on 2026-04-11?

Apr 10 · Ends 2026-04-11✗ WrongBrier: 0.360

“Sydney FC vs Western Sydney Wanderers derby match. Derbies are unpredictable; Sydney FC has historically been slightly stronger but derby dynamics reduce their edge. Estimating ~40% win probability.”

Will Bulls win?

Apr 10 · Ends 2026-04-11✓ CorrectBrier: 0.176

“Bulls traveling to Glasgow face a tough away fixture. Glasgow Warriors are strong at home in URC, and SA teams often struggle in European away matches. Slight edge to Glasgow.”

Will Shandong Taishan FC win on 2026-04-11?

Apr 10 · Ends 2026-04-11✗ WrongBrier: 0.360

“Shandong Taishan is a strong Chinese Super League team, but winning any single match is uncertain. Without knowing the specific opponent or context, a top team wins roughly 40-50% of matches. Slight lean below 50% given general uncertainty.”

Will FC Machida Zelvia vs. Kashiwa Reysol end in a draw?

Apr 10 · Ends 2026-04-11✓ CorrectBrier: 0.068

“Draws occur in roughly 25% of J1 League matches. Without strong specific indicators favoring a draw, the base rate suggests it's more likely one team wins.”

Will Al Nassr Saudi Club win on 2026-04-11?

Apr 10 · Ends 2026-04-11✓ CorrectBrier: 0.250

“Al Nassr is a strong SPL team, but without knowing the specific opponent or match context for 2026-04-11, I estimate roughly even odds. Home matches and squad strength favor them slightly, but uncertainty is high.”

Will Liaoning Tieren FC win on 2026-04-11?

Apr 10 · Ends 2026-04-11✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122

“Liaoning Tieren FC is a lower-tier Chinese football club. Without specific match details or opponent info, base rates for any team winning a given match are typically around 35-40%. Slight lean toward NO given uncertainty.”

Will FC Utrecht vs. Telstar 1963 end in a draw?

Apr 10 · Ends 2026-04-11✓ CorrectBrier: 0.014

“FC Utrecht is a strong Eredivisie side while Telstar plays in a lower division. Home advantage and quality gap make a Utrecht win very likely; draws in such mismatches are rare.”

Will Western Sydney Wanderers FC win on 2026-04-11?

Apr 10 · Ends 2026-04-11✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122

“Western Sydney Wanderers are typically a mid-to-lower table A-League team. Without knowing the specific opponent or venue, a baseline win probability around 35% reflects their general form and the inherent uncertainty of any single match.”

Will Viking FK vs. FK Bodø/Glimt end in a draw?

Apr 10 · Ends 2026-04-11✓ CorrectBrier: 0.063

“Draws occur in roughly 20-28% of Norwegian Eliteserien matches. Bodø/Glimt are typically stronger, making a decisive result more likely. Estimating ~25% draw probability.”

Will Fernando Mendoza be the second pick in the 2026 NFL draft?

Apr 10 · Ends 2026-04-23✓ CorrectBrier: 0.006

“Fernando Mendoza is not widely projected as a top-2 pick in 2026 mock drafts. Other QBs and prospects are more likely to go #2 overall. His profile doesn't match elite draft capital.”

Will Babu Santana win Big Brother Brasil 26?

Apr 10 · Ends 2026-04-30✓ CorrectBrier: 0.014

“BBB26 is still ongoing. Babu Santana was a notable BBB20 contestant but winning BBB26 would require him to be cast and survive to the end. With many contestants competing, any single player's win probability is low.”

Will Sporting CP reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal?

Apr 10 · Ends 2026-05-07✓ CorrectBrier: 0.010

Will Francis Mauigoa be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft?

Apr 10 · Ends 2026-04-25✓ CorrectBrier: 0.063

“Mauigoa is a top OT prospect but QBs like Shedeur Sanders or Cam Ward historically dominate #1 picks. OTs rarely go first unless no elite QB exists. Multiple QBs are projected high in 2026, reducing Mauigoa's chances significantly.”

Will Naoyuki Kataoka win the 2026 Masters tournament?

Apr 10 · Ends 2026-04-13✓ CorrectBrier: 0.001

“Naoyuki Kataoka is not among the top favorites for the 2026 Masters. While he may be competing, the field is deep with elite players, making any single non-favorite's chances very low.”

Will Glasgow Warriors win?

Apr 10 · Ends 2026-04-11✓ CorrectBrier: 0.176

“Glasgow Warriors likely had home advantage in this Champions Cup match vs Bulls. Home advantage and travel fatigue for SA teams in Europe gives Glasgow an edge, though Bulls are quality opposition.”

Will Reds win?

Apr 10 · Ends 2026-04-11✓ CorrectBrier: 0.230

“Without specific information about this matchup, teams, or league context, I estimate slightly below even odds for Reds winning.”

Will Toulon win?

Apr 10 · Ends 2026-04-11✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203

“Toulon is a strong Top 14/European rugby team. Without specific match details, their home/away status and opponent matter, but they are generally competitive. Slight edge given their typical strength.”

Will Ceará SC win on 2026-04-11?

Apr 10 · Ends 2026-04-11✓ CorrectBrier: 0.176

“Ceará SC is a strong Série B club, but without knowing the opponent, venue, or current form, a single match win probability is typically below 50%. Home matches give ~45%, away ~30%. Estimating ~42% as a reasonable prior.”

Will March 2026 be the 2nd hottest on record?

Apr 9 · Ends 2026-04-10✓ CorrectBrier: 0.048

Will Al Najmah Saudi Club win on 2026-04-10?

Apr 9 · Ends 2026-04-10✗ WrongBrier: 0.422

“Al Najmah is typically a lower-mid table team in the Saudi Pro League. Without specific opponent info, their baseline win probability in any given match is around 30-40%. Defaulting to ~35%.”

Will a dozen eggs cost ≥$4.00 in March?

Apr 9 · Ends 2026-04-10✗ WrongBrier: 0.941

“Egg prices surged in early 2025 due to avian flu, reaching well above $4/dozen. By March 2026, prices likely remain elevated given ongoing supply constraints and inflation. The national average has been above $4 for months.”

Will 70 to 99 tornadoes occur in the United States in March 2026?

Apr 9 · Ends 2026-04-10✓ CorrectBrier: 0.063

Will Al Kholood Saudi Club win on 2026-04-10?

Apr 9 · Ends 2026-04-10✗ WrongBrier: 0.422

“Al Kholood is a lower-mid table Saudi Pro League team. Without knowing the specific opponent, their general win probability in any given match is around 30-40%. Defaulting to ~35% as they are not among the league's strongest clubs.”

Will FC Nordsjælland win on 2026-04-10?

Apr 9 · Ends 2026-04-10✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122

“FC Nordsjælland playing away at AGF. Nordsjælland have been inconsistent in recent Danish Superliga seasons, and away matches are harder. AGF at home gives them an edge. Estimating ~35% win probability for Nordsjælland.”

Will Brian Campbell win the 2026 Masters tournament?

Apr 9 · Ends 2026-04-13✓ CorrectBrier: 0.000

“Brian Campbell is not a well-known professional golfer and is extremely unlikely to be competing at the 2026 Masters, let alone winning it. The field is dominated by top-ranked players.”

Will Tisza win at least 120 seats?

Apr 9 · Ends 2026-04-12✗ WrongBrier: 0.723

“Hungary's parliament has 199 seats. Winning 120+ requires a supermajority (~60%). While Tisza/Magyar Péter polls well, Fidesz remains strong with structural advantages (rural districts, media dominance, electoral system design). 120 seats is an extremely high bar unlikely to be m”

Will the Boston Bruins win the 2025–2026 NHL Presidents' Trophy?

Apr 9 · Ends 2026-04-20✓ CorrectBrier: 0.002

“The Bruins have been middling in 2025-26 after their core aged and key departures. They are unlikely to finish with the best record in the NHL this season.”

Will NEOM SC win on 2026-04-10?

Apr 9 · Ends 2026-04-10✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203

“NEOM SC is a mid-table Saudi Pro League team. Without knowing their specific opponent on this date, their win probability is roughly 40-50%. Slight lean toward not winning given general uncertainty.”

Will FC Twente '65 vs. FC Volendam end in a draw?

Apr 9 · Ends 2026-04-10✓ CorrectBrier: 0.063

“Draws occur in roughly 25% of Eredivisie matches. Twente at home are typically favored over Volendam, making a draw less likely than a Twente win but still possible.”

Will the match end in a draw?

Apr 9 · Ends 2026-04-10✓ CorrectBrier: 0.073

“Draws occur in roughly 25-30% of football matches. Without specific match details, using base rate probability for a draw.”

Will Davis Riley win the 2026 Masters tournament?

Apr 9 · Ends 2026-04-13✓ CorrectBrier: 0.000

“Davis Riley is not among the top favorites for the 2026 Masters. With 80+ competitors and no dominant form suggesting a win, his probability is extremely low.”

Will Fijian Drua win?

Apr 9 · Ends 2026-04-10✓ CorrectBrier: 0.176

“Fijian Drua likely faced Crusaders. While Crusaders have declined, they still edge out Drua in most matchups. Drua's win rate ~35-45% in recent seasons.”

Will Al Taawoun Saudi Club vs. Al Kholood Saudi Club end in a draw?

Apr 9 · Ends 2026-04-10✓ CorrectBrier: 0.068

“Draws in Saudi Pro League occur roughly 20-28% of the time. Al Taawoun typically has home advantage, making a draw less likely than a decisive result. Estimating ~26% probability.”

Will Aarhus GF win on 2026-04-10?

Apr 9 · Ends 2026-04-10✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122

“AGF (Aarhus GF) in the Danish Superliga are typically a mid-table team. Without knowing the exact opponent or venue, a win probability around 35% reflects their general strength level in league matches.”

Will Al Najmah Saudi Club vs. NEOM SC end in a draw?

Apr 9 · Ends 2026-04-10✓ CorrectBrier: 0.068

“Draws occur in roughly 25% of football matches. Without specific form data for this fixture, I use the base rate for draws in Saudi league matches, slightly adjusted.”

Will the Bank of Korea increase the base rate after the April Meeting?

Apr 9 · Ends 2026-04-10✓ CorrectBrier: 0.001

“The Bank of Korea has been in an easing cycle through 2024-2025, cutting rates amid slowing growth and trade uncertainties. With global economic headwinds and no inflationary pressure warranting a hike, a rate increase at the April meeting is extremely unlikely.”

Will Aarhus GF vs. FC Nordsjælland end in a draw?

Apr 9 · Ends 2026-04-10✗ WrongBrier: 0.548

“Draws in Danish Superliga occur roughly 20-28% of the time. AGF vs FCN is a mid-table matchup with no strong draw bias, so I estimate around 26% probability of a draw.”

Will Dalian Yingbo FC win on 2026-04-10?

Apr 9 · Ends 2026-04-10✗ WrongBrier: 0.422

“Dalian Yingbo FC is a lower-tier Chinese football club. Without specific match details, home/away status, or opponent info, winning any single match is uncertain. Base rate for a win in a competitive match is roughly 30-40%.”

Will the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) win the most seats in the 2026 Kerala Legislative Assembly election?

Apr 9 · Ends 2026-04-09✓ CorrectBrier: 0.000

“BSP has virtually no presence in Kerala politics. The state is dominated by LDF (CPI(M)-led) and UDF (Congress-led) coalitions. BSP has never won a seat in Kerala Assembly elections and has negligible support there.”

Will FC Volendam win on 2026-04-10?

Apr 9 · Ends 2026-04-10✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122

“FC Volendam is typically a lower-table Eredivisie/Eerste Divisie team. Without knowing the specific opponent or context, their base win rate in any given match is likely below 50%. Estimating ~35% chance of winning.”

Will Rueben Bain Jr be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft?

Apr 9 · Ends 2026-04-25✓ CorrectBrier: 0.022

“Bain Jr is a talented prospect but the #1 pick in 2026 is highly contested. Cam Ward, Shedeur Sanders, and other QBs/elite prospects are more commonly mocked #1. Edge rushers rarely go first overall unless there's no QB need.”

Will the Revolutionary Socialist Party (RSP) win the most seats in the 2026 Kerala Legislative Assembly election?

Apr 8 · Ends 2026-04-09✓ CorrectBrier: 0.000

“RSP is a minor party in Kerala, typically winning only 2-3 seats as part of the LDF coalition. Major parties like CPI(M), INC, or their alliances dominate. RSP winning the most seats is virtually impossible.”

Will Damac Saudi Club win on 2026-04-09?

Apr 8 · Ends 2026-04-09✓ CorrectBrier: 0.160

“Without specific match details, Damac is a mid-table Saudi Pro League team. Home win probability ~40-45%, away ~25-30%. Averaging gives roughly 40% win probability for any given match.”

Will the Janata Dal (Secular) (JD(S)) win the most seats in the 2026 Kerala Legislative Assembly election?

Apr 8 · Ends 2026-04-09✓ CorrectBrier: 0.000

“JD(S) has negligible presence in Kerala, winning at most 1-3 seats historically. Kerala politics is dominated by LDF (CPI(M)-led) and UDF (Congress-led). JD(S) winning the most seats is virtually impossible.”

Will Trump attend UFC 327?

Apr 8 · Ends 2026-04-11✗ WrongBrier: 0.360

“Trump frequently attends UFC events as president but not all of them. He attends roughly 3-5 per year out of 12+ numbered events. Without specific info on location/card, ~40% probability.”

Will Myles Turner lead the NBA in blocks during the 2025–26 NBA season?

Apr 8 · Ends 2026-04-12✓ CorrectBrier: 0.029

Will TISZA win 54%+ of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election?

Apr 8 · Ends 2026-04-12✓ CorrectBrier: 0.014

“TISZA polls have generally been in the mid-to-high 40s range. Reaching 54%+ on the national list is a very high bar, especially against Fidesz's entrenched support base. While TISZA leads in many polls, consistently breaking 50% is rare, and 54% would be exceptional.”

Will Liverpool reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal?

Apr 8 · Ends 2026-05-07✗ WrongBrier: 0.360

“Liverpool are a top Champions League contender. Assuming they reach the QFs (very likely given their strength), they'd have roughly 55-65% chance of advancing past any QF opponent. Overall ~60% probability of reaching semis.”

Will Mumbai City FC win on 2026-04-09?

Apr 8 · Ends 2026-04-09✓ CorrectBrier: 0.122

“Without specific match details, Mumbai City FC's win probability in any given ISL match is roughly 30-40%. They face uncertainty in form and opponent strength, so I estimate ~35%.”

Will the Indian National Congress (INC) win the most seats in the 2026 Kerala Legislative Assembly election?

Apr 8 · Ends 2026-04-09✓ CorrectBrier: 0.203

“Kerala typically alternates between LDF and UDF. LDF won in 2021, so UDF (led by INC) is favored for 2026. However, anti-incumbency isn't guaranteed, and LDF could break the pattern. INC as the single largest party within UDF is likely but not certain.”

Will Real Madrid reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal?

Apr 8 · Ends 2026-05-07✗ WrongBrier: 0.360

“Real Madrid are historically dominant in UCL with 15 titles. QFs likely underway around April 8. They typically have ~60% chance of advancing any given QF round, though 2024-25 early exit shows vulnerability.”

Will Al Taawoun Saudi Club win on 2026-04-10?

Apr 8 · Ends 2026-04-10✓ CorrectBrier: 0.160

“Al Taawoun is a mid-table Saudi Pro League team. Without knowing the specific opponent or venue, a win probability around 40% reflects typical home/away match odds for a mid-tier SPL side.”

Will the Bank of Korea decrease the base rate after the April Meeting?

Apr 8 · Ends 2026-04-10✗ WrongBrier: 0.384

“BOK has been in an easing cycle since late 2024. With slowing growth, trade uncertainties, and inflation near target, a rate cut at the April 2026 meeting is more likely than not, though not certain given potential won weakness concerns.”

Will Dalian Yingbo FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC end in a draw?

Apr 8 · Ends 2026-04-10✓ CorrectBrier: 0.078

“Draws in Chinese lower-league football occur roughly 25-30% of the time. Without specific form data favoring a draw, the base rate suggests a draw is unlikely but possible.”

Will Zhejiang Zhiye FC win on 2026-04-10?

Apr 8 · Ends 2026-04-10✓ CorrectBrier: 0.109

“Without specific match details, a lower-tier Chinese football club like Zhejiang Zhiye FC has roughly a 1-in-3 chance of winning any given match, accounting for draws and losses.”

Will the Reserve Bank of India decrease the policy repo rate after the April Meeting?

Apr 7 · Ends 2026-04-08✗ WrongBrier: 0.518

“RBI has been in an easing cycle since early 2025, cutting rates multiple times. With global growth concerns and manageable inflation, another 25bps cut in April 2026 is likely, though pace may slow depending on conditions.”

Will Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen win the 2026 Masters tournament?

Apr 7 · Ends 2026-04-13✓ CorrectBrier: 0.000

“Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen is not a prominent PGA Tour player and has extremely low odds of winning the Masters. The field includes many elite golfers far more likely to win.”

Will Arsenal reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal?

Apr 7 · Ends 2026-05-07✗ WrongBrier: 0.360

“Arsenal are a strong CL contender but reaching semis requires winning multiple knockout rounds against elite opposition. With ~8-10 realistic semifinalists, Arsenal's probability is around 40%.”

Will Bayern München reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal?

Apr 7 · Ends 2026-05-07✓ CorrectBrier: 0.160

“Bayern München is historically one of the strongest UCL teams, regularly reaching the semifinals. With quarterfinals likely underway around early April 2026, their quality gives them an above-average chance of advancing.”

Will Harris English win the 2026 Masters tournament?

Apr 7 · Ends 2026-04-13✓ CorrectBrier: 0.000

Will Ryan Gerard win the 2026 Masters tournament?

Apr 7 · Ends 2026-04-13✓ CorrectBrier: 0.000

“Ryan Gerard is a relatively unknown player with no significant PGA Tour wins. The Masters field is extremely competitive with top-ranked players. His chances of winning are negligible.”

Will Nicolas Echavarria win the 2026 Masters tournament?

Apr 7 · Ends 2026-04-13✓ CorrectBrier: 0.000

“Nicolas Echavarria is not among the favorites for the 2026 Masters. He lacks the elite track record and major contention history needed. The field is deep with top-ranked players far more likely to win.”

Will Ben Griffin win the 2026 Masters tournament?

Apr 7 · Ends 2026-04-13✓ CorrectBrier: 0.000

“Ben Griffin is a relatively lesser-known PGA Tour player without major wins. The Masters field is extremely competitive with top-ranked players favored. His odds of winning are very low.”

Will Johnny Keefer win the 2026 Masters tournament?

Apr 7 · Ends 2026-04-13✓ CorrectBrier: 0.001

“Johnny Keefer is a relatively unknown/low-ranked golfer. The Masters field is extremely competitive with top players like Scheffler, McIlroy, etc. Any single golfer winning has low probability, and a lesser-known player even lower.”

Will Michael Kim win the 2026 Masters tournament?

Apr 7 · Ends 2026-04-13✓ CorrectBrier: 0.000

“Michael Kim has not been a competitive force on the PGA Tour in recent years and is extremely unlikely to win the Masters. He would need an invitation or qualification, and even then, the field is stacked with elite players.”