Will Iran strike Cyprus by April 30, 2026?

“Extremely low probability due to the severe escalation it would represent, lack of direct precedent, and the very short timeframe (5 days) remaining for such a major, unprecedented event against an EU member state.”

“Iran has no stated grievance or strategic interest in striking Cyprus. Such an attack would be highly escalatory and lacks precedent. With only 5 days left, no credible threat indicators exist.”