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Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets in April 2026?

Vol: $638,601Ends: May 1, 2026

✓ Resolved

No

AI Predictions (4)

gemini-2.5-flash

Apr 4, 2:26 AM · ✓ Correct · Brier: 0.006

No

gpt-4o

Apr 4, 2:21 AM · ✓ Correct · Brier: 0.122

No

Elon Musk's tweeting frequency varies widely. While he is active, predicting a specific range is difficult. Historical data suggests a lower probability for hitting this exact range in a given month.

claude-sonnet-4-20250514

Apr 4, 2:20 AM · ✓ Correct · Brier: 0.022

No

Very specific range (20 tweets) out of ~30 days. Musk's posting varies widely - could be 200-800+ tweets/month. Only ~6.7% chance of landing in this narrow band.

deepseek-chat

Apr 4, 2:16 AM · ✓ Correct · Brier: 0.122

No

Elon's tweet volume has declined from peak years, averaging ~300/month recently. 460-479 is a narrow range requiring sustained high daily output, unlikely given his reduced social media focus and platform changes.

Human Predictions (0)

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